Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 28, 2010 4:47 PM EST
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PrintKeith Law of ESPN.com has recently posted his Top 100 prospects. Its always fun to see everyone's take on the Top 100 prospects, but the three most widely accepted public lists always come from Law, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus. All three have paywalls if you want to read the details, but make the full lists public.
Michael Diaz breaks down the Mets entries over at Mets Minor League Blog and gives us a taste of what Law has to say. There are four Mets appearing on the list: Jenrry Mejia (#23), Wilmer Flores (#41), Ike Davis (#64), and Fernando Martinez (#73).
Law also recently ranked each organization's farm system, with the Mets coming dead smack in the middle at #15. He also gave a Top 10 for each organization. Here's what he has for the Mets:
- Jenrry Mejia
- Wilmer Flores
- Ike Davis
- Fernando Martinez
- Brad Holt
- Jon Niese
- Josh Thole
- Reese Havens
- Jefry Marte
- Juan Urbina
This list comes off incredibly similar to the one Adam Rubin did a few months back for Baseball America. Both omit the breakouts of Jeurys Familia, Kyle Allen, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis in favor of Juan Urbina, who is yet to throw a professional pitch. If anything, Law takes it a step further, ignoring Shortstop Ruben Tejada's Double-A breakout season in favor of Urbina and Jefry Marte, a corner infielder who struggled mightily both offensively and defensively two levels below Tejada, though he was a year younger and still has plenty of time to bounce back.
In somewhat related news, there should be some fresh Amazin' Avenue prospect rankings on the way. I've been focusing a lot of time on getting material ready for the recently announced Amazin' Avenue Annual, which will feature the entire Top 26 list as well as some unique content. As that gets closer to finished, the website countdown will continue.
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I think I'm more surprised by
Davis and Holt above Niese.
That being said didn’t he have Murphy in like his top ten last year?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Also wow
at Meija being 50 spots above F-mart, and Flores being 30 spots above. I think that’s more shocking than just being above him in the top ten.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
As per Hyde, this is what Law had to say about Fernando
Martinez has one of the biggest drops of anyone on this list (from last year’s list), but I’m not down on Martinez’s offensive potential — the ball still comes off his bat incredibly well, comparable to Starlin Castro, who sits in the Top 25 of this list because of that skill — and I could have left Martinez in the Top 25 and justified it. The problems with "F-Mart," aside from the fact that Mets fans decided to give him a nickname more appropriate for a farm-equipment discount store, aren’t about baseball skills. He continues to have trouble staying healthy, and there’s a real risk of Chris Snelling disease here, with lack of playing time limiting his development; he’s never had more than 400 plate appearances in any season, and even including winter ball this offseason, when he was just back from knee surgery, he had fewer than 300 PAs in ‘09. Martinez has also had his work ethic and conditioning called into question, including a visible lack of effort more than once at the big league level last year. Very few players can coast to major league stardom on talent alone, and Martinez needs to grow up — he’s still just 21 years old — to turn himself into an elite corner-outfield bat. (It looks like Martinez has exactly 45 days on the Mets’ active roster, which would make him eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2010, as well as for this list. If he had just one more day on the active roster, he’d no longer be eligible.)
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 28, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
I challenge Law's nickname comment
I happen to think Fartinez is one of the best nicknames out there.
by metsjetsnets on Jan 28, 2010 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
F-Bomb?
But he has to earn that one.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Jan 29, 2010 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think Niese is fourth or fifth in our prospects
To me, it’s between Niese being major league ready and looking consistent compared to Flores’ upside.
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
But it's not like Niese doesn't have upside
maybe he won’t be a superstar, but he’s an ml ready prospect who could be as good high-end #3.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I like Niese a lot
but he doesn’t have the upside W-Flo has.
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
I agree
but at this point he also doesn’t have the downside, at worse he’ll likely stick as a number #4, at best he could be a mid-tier/low end #2, but regardless he’s going to stick in a rotation, at this point no one has any idea whether Flores will get there or how long it will take, and it’s pretty much guaranteed he won’t be playing a premium position which, is going to really limit his value, so he’s going to have to hit like hell or become an all-word first base defender to be a super-star.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Despite Mejia's upside, I don't see him passing Martinez, in terms of value.
Martinez is injury prone, to a degree, so that obviously counts against him, but Mejia, at the same time, has had some injury problems of his own, and a little bit of wildness. Both are very young, so I take most of the injury concern with a few grains of salt, anyway, though.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 28, 2010 4:53 PM EST reply actions
Marte
I was surprised to see Marte on the list, but I have also been surprised to see Marte fall off of so many lists. Marte had a rough start this year, but he did improve at the end of the year. His fielding needs improvement, but he did hit better as the year went on.
He’s a reasonably good athlete who can handle first base and actually has a plus arm — he was 92-94 mph as a reliever in college — although that’s less relevant at the position.
move him to rf!!
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
So who plays first base? Murphy? If we had the money maybe you could with Derek Lee or Carlos Pena and a front line starter. The problem with that is we will owe Wright and Reyes big money shortly so we can’t make those kind of commitments. The way I see it, we will have money for a front line starter next year, and that’s it.
by Coolpapabell on Jan 28, 2010 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
In my perfect world
we’d move Bay there, but it’s usually cheaper to find an average first basemen than an average right fielder.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
You're thinking like Omar and the Wilpons
Complete lack of creativity. A competent GM could build an awesome team around high paid Wright, Reyes, Santana, and (ugh) Bay.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Jan 28, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
I am confused.
The reason why I would keep Davis at first is because I don’t want to spend the money for a good first baseman. Perhaps you were being sarcastic.
I like Gina’s idea of having Ike in RF, but you would need a good first baseman, it would also depend on what we do with Beltran and how Fernandito develops. Hey, maybe Kirk Naeiou&y keeps developing into a 20/20 guy.
by Coolpapabell on Jan 28, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
Its pretty clear though, we need to spend some cash on another frontline starter. Unlike this year, there will be more than one available. We should not trade because we need to retain what we have.
by Coolpapabell on Jan 28, 2010 6:40 PM EST up reply actions
Well there could be more than one available
The Sox have announced their plans to resign Beckett, and the D-backs could very easily resign Webb, plus whether he’s front line or not depends on how he comes back from the injury. Outside of them who else is on the market, Cliff Lee?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
2011 pitching
I have read reports out of Az that suggest that Webb is a goner. He seemed like he already resigned himself to the idea that he is a goner. You also have Vazquez, and Chris Young with an $8.5 million dollar option. The Pads aren’t likely to pick it up because they are still running the whole “the divorce precludes me from spending money” scam.
Cliff Lee will go to the highest bidder and the Yanks, the Phills and the Sox will not be in on him. It appears that the only team we would have to worry about is the M’s. They have the payroll flexibility to pull it off, but we can out bid them. I also think Webb would be an excellent consolation prize as well, but he needs to be healthy, and that is a big deal. Cliff Lee might be worth a silly contract because he is at least durable and a lefty.
Thoughts?
by Coolpapabell on Jan 28, 2010 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
upon reflexion
You are right. There are no sure bets that Webb and Yound make it to FA, but its a pretty good bet though. Vasquez will also be available. Not a front line guy, but good.
by Coolpapabell on Jan 28, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions
We can outbid them
but you there’s also the fact we apparently weren’t particularly popular for free agents this year, and at this point we’re likely not going to be very good in 2010 either so our prestige probably isn’t going to get any better, plus we’d have to REALLY outbid them, likely to the point of an overpay since it’s hard to find undervalued starting pitchers, which means there won’t be many trade options for them, and like you said they’ll be alot of payroll flexibility for them, more than we can have with $119 dollars already committed to only 10 players.
Vazquez I imagine will re-up with the Yankees if he’s effective, and Chris Young is kind of really bad, not to mention hasn’t been healthy in 2 years.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Wright, Reyes aren't the problem
Santana is kind of in a grey area since the injury last year makes it harder to project him going foward, but if he can maintain 4+ WAR value for a while he’s not part of the problem.
It’s mostly the money owed to Bay, K-rod, and Ollie, and Castillo that are major ughs. That’s almost 50 million tied up for the next two years, Ollie and Castillo will be off the books then, for players that will probably be worth between like 5-6 WAR combined, and that might even be high.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
K-Rod, Ollie, and Luis will all be gone by then...
Right?
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Jan 28, 2010 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
Frankie Rod may be back for 2012
at the low low price of $17.5 milliion.
If I read the contract right, it’s a vesting option that the Mets can buy out, which is kind of strange, but means they’re off the hook for a mere $3m if they decide a reliever isn’t worth $17.5.
by SeanSchirmer on Jan 29, 2010 3:39 AM EST up reply actions
Unless his arm falls off
The Mets will deem him a steal at $17.5
too slow
Davis would likely be about a -15 defender in the outfield. He’d be a downgrade from any of Bay, Murphy, Tatis, or Francoeur defensively there. Think about it, he has 0 SB and 2 CS in 727 minor league PA so far. There were only 5 outfielders in MLB with over 400 PA and 0 SB last year, and three of them were Manny, Dunn, and Dye (though other two, Swisher and J. Rivera, are actually decent fielders).
Are you sure he's too slow?
Everything I’ve read said he’s a great athlete with a major arm, at worse I’m not sure that would make him worse than Bay at leas.t
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Athleticism =/= speed
He moves pretty well, but his running speed is well below average. I don’t know if he’d be -15, the arm would help a bit, but he wouldn’t be nearly as good as he is at first. I’m not convinced the difference would be so huge that his value would change much, at least in the short term, but he’s probably a safer play and has more upside at first.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 29, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
major league readiness
Anybody else feel like the general trend in these lists over recent years has been away from major league readiness and more towards projectability? I feel like back in the day Baseball America – then the only source for this sort of info, as far as I could tell – used to weigh major league readiness fairly heavily and you definitely would’ve seen Fartinez ahead of Flores, with Marte and Urbina another year away from showing up on the radar.
I could be wrong
because I can’t say I was consciously aware of baseball before the 00s, but it seems to me IFA’s has become more popular and widespread in the last decade, and since a lot of those players are a lot rawer when brought in than even their prep counterparts that might be a reason for it.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
true, they could be a factor
they’re definitely getting more money and publicity
by metsjetsnets on Jan 28, 2010 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
Different people value differently
There was actually a post earlier today at Beyond the Box Score comparing the type of players valued by different rankings.
Holy crap,
the Top 26 is actually coming out. Great news, I hope the Boras/Phillips comps are still being used.
The causative relationship is that talent (plus luck) leads to wins. And that talent (plus service time) leads to payrolls.
mets prospects aint that bad ..
the jury is still out on f mart but he is still only 20 meija could be another stud and i can,t wait to see ike davis i think he has franchise potential plus flores makes reyes expendable.
no no no no no no
flores doesn’t make reyes anything. he has almost zero chance of staying at ss and will more than likely end up in a corner outfield spot or first base.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
wut wut wut wut wut
is the proper parlance…
by Pack Bringley on Jan 28, 2010 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
Flores makes Reyes look better than he actually is.
And he’s amazingly great right now as it is, one of the Top 3 shortstops in baseball right now.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 28, 2010 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
Are you dure it's not that
Reyes makes Flores look worse?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
err not look worse
he actually makes him play worse
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Flores
Flores’ comps as an athlete are that of Miguel Cabrera. He will likely play a corner position in the bigs.
by Coolpapabell on Jan 28, 2010 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
Flores is most likely a first baseman in the future or left fielder if he ges amazing jumps
I’ve read his speed is a 20 on the 20-80 scale. Kid is slow.
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
20?!
Wow, jus wow, I did not know that. Boy that is slow.
by Coolpapabell on Jan 28, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
Lol it's so bad it's kind of funny
like that’s really really bad, I’m pretty certain I could do better than that. And how good does he have to project as a hitter to be such a highly regarded prospect with pretty much zero chance to play a premium position/be a very big threat on the base paths.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Just to point out, because I've seen it before
That was Michael Diaz, not Toby Hyde. I think he just posted what Law wrote, but I’m not sure.
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
Good call, didn't even realize Toby had other writers so I didn't bother to look
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 29, 2010 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
DONT BELIEVE HIS LIES
this man thought Watchemen wasnt deep enough. he also thinks the best rapper in the world is MC front a lot.
ive had just about enough of this hack.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
Watchmen the comic or movie?
Cause I could see how someone who never read the comic could not completely get the story from the movie. I happened to think both were great. Obviously the comic was better, it’s the best one I’ve ever read, but the movie was very good and faithful to the comic, and Jackie Earle Haley was phenomenal as Rorschach.
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
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