New PECOTAs are available

As a BP subscriber, I'm a little unsure what nonsubscribers can and can't see, but I suspect a lot of folks here will want to peruse these projections.

over 2 years ago danielj 14 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Ouch

I’m down on the mets, but even I think that’s incredibly low. Maybe it’s because I expect Santana/Wright/Pagan to outplay what I imagine Pecota is projecting for them, the first two more than Pagan.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 28, 2010 6:49 PM EST reply actions

Since Pagan and Beltran essentially overlap in CF

the most optimistically I can predict is a season only slightly worse than a good Beltran season

by SeanSchirmer on Jan 29, 2010 8:25 PM EST up reply actions

Projection systems don’t know much about injuries. I’m not particularly worried about Santana’s surgery, and I’ll bet he has a great year. I’m pessimistic on Beltran’s playing time. I don’t think Wright’s numbers look too weird.

by danielj on Jan 28, 2010 7:14 PM EST reply actions

Yeah I can't see individual player projections

since i’m not a subscriber

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 28, 2010 7:17 PM EST up reply actions

I'm calling bullshit on this

if they stay healthy, they will break .500 easily.

you know what I'm sayin' ?

by fxcarden on Jan 28, 2010 7:26 PM EST reply actions

About what I expect

They have the talent to win 83-85.
So Jerry will have them on pace for 80-81.
Which will lead to a lot of firings,
cleaning house before the break.
and then playing all the young talent,
which means we’ll end up at aound 75 wins.

by acerimusdux on Jan 29, 2010 8:58 AM EST reply actions

They have us listed at 82-80

And in third place.

Wait, we’re not the Nationals?

by Dan Lewis on Jan 29, 2010 12:08 PM EST reply actions

I think that's Chone.

BP has the Mets winning 77 and with the third worst pitching staff in the NL, ahead of only MIL and PITT.

by SeanSchirmer on Jan 29, 2010 8:26 PM EST up reply actions

I'm calling BS on the Nationals

I have a lot of respect for BP, and I usually think they’re a hell of a lot better at predictions than anyone else, but I’ll eat a hat if the Natinals win 82 games this year. They’re a team on the rise, but they might get to .500 next year. I’m okay with the Mets forecast, though I think they’ll do better than that. But this could be a team that implodes, so I ain’t gonna doubt BP there.

by dcmetsfan on Jan 29, 2010 1:58 PM EST reply actions

they actually weren't better than everyone else last year

they were the least accurate. And, this is just my opinion/perception, it seems like they’re no longer the standard of projections/statistical analysis and have fallen off a bit.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 29, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions

It is worse than I thought

Just read through their full projections: so no team in baseball is going to win less than 70 games? Only 3 teams in baseball are going to win more than 88, and they’re all in the AL East – which the Rays will win? I know they got it right, or at least more right than anyone else with the Rays two years back, but that sounds a bit off to me.

Well, considering they’ve picked the Mets the past three years, maybe we should be happy with their projections.

by dcmetsfan on Jan 29, 2010 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

PECOTA

Don’t take the overall win numbers too seriously, yet – these are very preliminary figures plugged in before adjustments for playing time, etc. are all factored in. Having said all that, it;s very clear they believe our starting pitching is going to be pretty bad.

by danielj on Jan 29, 2010 6:00 PM EST reply actions

The only thing that might work out is the incredible depth we have at the 4/5 spots.

The problem is the lack of anybody who’s a legit 2/3. I make it around 1% that we make the playoffs. It’s not impossible if Santana pitches somewhere around his 2008/9 level and we get another 130 starts with an ERA between 4 and 5. The Angels have a rotation that’s a lot more likely to pitch like that (mediocrity throughout the rotation isn’t a bad thing—it keeps a team in most games), and that’s our upside, but it’s not completely out of the question

by SeanSchirmer on Jan 29, 2010 10:15 PM EST up reply actions

They have Seattle only winning 81 games

That is crap. The M’s have built a winning team this offseason and to think they win 81 is way off. They also have the Red Sox tying the Yankees for first and the Rays winning 92!!! No frickin way!

"Wait till Biggus Dickus hears about this!"

by scott from peekskill on Jan 30, 2010 1:20 PM EST reply actions