Mets Starting Lineup WAR Per 700 Plate Appearances

by James Kannengieser on Jan 29, 2010 11:00 AM EST

(click to embiggen) -- partially inspired by this post

Using the BaseballProjection WAR database, I calculated the career WAR per 700 plate appearances (roughly one full season) of the projected Mets starting lineup. Nothing groundbreaking -- we just haven't had a good graph in awhile and this is a quick way to demonstrate each player's career value. Actual numbers can be found after the jump.

Player	WAR	PA	WAR/700
David Wright	27.1	3665	5.2
Jose Reyes	21.1	3651	4.0
Angel Pagan	4.6	829	3.9
Jason Bay	17.8	3897	3.2
Luis Castillo	24.5	7172	2.4
Daniel Murphy	1.5	707	1.5
Jeff Francoeur	3.3	2940	0.8
Omir Santos	0.2	316	0.4

Carlos Beltran's WAR/700 is 5.6.

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Does anyone else feel like Castillo is WAY to close to Bay

I don’t know if that means Castillo’s projection is too high or Bay’s is too low but it just makes me uncomfortable.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 29, 2010 11:06 AM EST reply actions

nevermind i totally read this wrong I didn't realize it wasn't projections

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 29, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions

I thought you meant

he was putting the moves on him

by deadspy3 on Jan 29, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

This is really related

but I love how squished Omir’s face is.

by wrightttxgirlllx3 on Jan 29, 2010 11:11 AM EST reply actions

Spelling fail: This isn't really realted*

by wrightttxgirlllx3 on Jan 29, 2010 11:12 AM EST reply actions

Oh my gosh. I suck. Reply fail.

by wrightttxgirlllx3 on Jan 29, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 6 recs

I'm going to go ahead and rec this.

The causative relationship is that talent (plus luck) leads to wins. And that talent (plus service time) leads to payrolls.

by Sokojoe on Jan 29, 2010 11:13 AM EST up reply actions

And I fail at spelling again. RELATED*

I can’t believe I just took up four comments. I wish there was a delete button.

by wrightttxgirlllx3 on Jan 29, 2010 11:13 AM EST up reply actions

happens to the best of us

and ironically, also to me.

by KeithsMoustache on Jan 29, 2010 11:23 AM EST up reply actions

I guess you were too excited when you saw Dub's face up there.

Also, Bay’s face is so white that he looks undead to me. At least he managed to put up a smile in the photo, so it’s all good. If only he could dance after hitting a HR.

Things AA Would Do If It Meant Not Signing Bengie Molina To A Dumb Contract - It worked!

by Michkin on Jan 29, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

I can't figure out if Bay is paler than Olerud

I need to see them side-by-side

by hotspur on Jan 29, 2010 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

Haha, or maybe I was too excited for Omir.

….joking.

by wrightttxgirlllx3 on Jan 29, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

I heard girls dig

~~the long ball~~ the clutch

Things AA Would Do If It Meant Not Signing Bengie Molina To A Dumb Contract - It worked!

by Michkin on Jan 29, 2010 12:27 PM EST up reply actions

hey ladies, wanna see the "clutch"?

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Jan 29, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

what you're telling me is Pagan is 5x better than Francoeur, huh?

So his market value is ~$25M, right?

by hotspur on Jan 29, 2010 11:43 AM EST reply actions

He's certainly 5x better than Francoeur, anyway.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 29, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

So, then

A full-season of Wright, Reyes, Pagan, Beltran, and Bay, assuming they played to their career norms, would be worth about 22 wins, getting us to .500.

by Dan Lewis on Jan 29, 2010 12:15 PM EST reply actions

no, it would get us to 70 wins

we’d need another 11 from Castillo and co

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Jan 29, 2010 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

don't forget to add the pitchers

theoretically, they can add value to a team

by hotspur on Jan 29, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

right

So we need 7-8 wins assuming Johan is 3-4 wins

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Jan 29, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions

In other words,

A full season of Wright, Reyes, Pagan, Beltran, and Bay at their career norms (and never mind that that’s a full season from both Beltran and his backup), the rest of the lineup including Blanco, Castillo, Francouer, Murphy, and the bench is going to produce another 11 wins (not in our wildest dreams, but…), Santana pitches like he did in 2008-2009 despite the surgery, and the rest of the rotation and pen produces a decent amount of value—all that gets us to the wildcard.

I knew there was a way.

I just knew it.

by SeanSchirmer on Jan 29, 2010 7:59 PM EST up reply actions