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Around SBN: Are The Orioles Bad Or Unlucky With Their Young Pitching?

How About A Francoeur/Pagan Platoon?

Conventional Mets wisdom says that Jeff Francoeur will be the starting right fielder on Opening Day 2010 and for the remainder of the season, barring injury or catastrophic performance. The hope is that his .836 OPS with the Mets in 2009 is sustainable and his positive aura will rub off on teammates.

Note: Replace Francoeur's name with Daniel Murphy and essentially the same thing could have been written last offseason.

Star-divide

The big lug has earned the right to fail I suppose. It's been beaten to death already but his success hinges on whether he can sustain a BABIP in the .340 range. He's just not going to take any walks and if his BABIP is closer to his career mark of .307 he will be a detriment to the team. How can this risk be hedged? A look at Frenchy's splits vs. RHP and LHP provides an idea:

vs. RHP
Career: .260/.300/.410 (.710 OPS)
2009: .255/.291/.385 (.676 OPS)

vs. LHP
Career: .298/.340/.487 (.827 OPS)
2009:.344/.356/.521 (.877 OPS)

Already dramatic splits were more pronounced in 2009. Small sample size and all that, yes, but the fact remains his performance vs. RHP isn't adequate for a corner OF. The smart course of action here might be to start Francoeur only vs. LHP. Luckily, there is an outfielder on the Mets roster who has platoon splits to match up perfectly with Francoeur: Angel "4th Outfielder" Pagan:

vs. RHP
Career: .299/.350/.452 (.802 OPS)
2009: .316/.356/.488 (.844 OPS)

vs. LHP
Career: .245/.291/.425 (.716 OPS)
2009: .280/.323/.484 (.807 OPS)

Pagan has just 1.5 seasons worth of MLB plate appearances and his minor league splits aren't drastic. Regardless, he projects better vs. RHP in 2010 than Francoeur. Given his injury history, Pagan likely isn't suited for everyday duty anyway (not that a starting role is even under consideration). He'll probably spell Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay from time-to-time, so it's not as if Francoeur would never start vs. RHP.

Using some rudimentary calculations, the Pagan/Francoeur platoon projects to produce something like this: .295/.345/.470, with upside based on each players' age and recent performance. Not spectacular but not the weak .752 OPS and .768 OPS that CHONE projects for Francoeur and Pagan, respectively. This would almost certainly give the Mets above average offensive production from the right field position -- something they've lacked since 2006. Defensive projections for the two players are similar, but most systems loved Pagan in 2009 (+5.8 UZR, +16 Plus/Minus, +9 TotalZone) so it would be nice to see if his alleged defensive prowess is for real. The biggest fear is that Pagan is relegated to Jeremy Reed duty while Francoeur grits his way to a .730 OPS.

Would Francouer, or his loyal fans, quietly accept this platoon disrespect? Probably not. However, the appropriate response to such disagreement can be summed up by this video.

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Excellent suggestion, and well written.

Please forward to the Mets FO.

Francoeur is miscast as a full-time player. He would be a strong 4th OFer, though, and could have a nice career mashing lefties, providing adequate defense in RF as a part-timer, and (assuming he can handle the role—some guys can’t) pinch-hitting with some power v LHP. (Do we have any idea, btw, if he can handle LF?)

I wonder if it would have any effect on him, and it may be too late now, if a strong manager said to him, ‘Jeff, if I see you swinging at anything more than 6" off the plate, you’re benched for three days.’ And followed through. OTOH if may be pointless—he just may not have the ability to recognize pitches out of the strike zone.

by SeanSchirmer on Jan 4, 2010 5:18 AM EST reply actions  

the not being able to recognize pitches thing may be the problem

i remember either last year or the year before atlanta tried to get him to be more patient at the plate, and he seemed to think it just meant taking the first few pitches that came to him, regardless of whether they were balls or strikes, and then swinging away.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 4, 2010 11:00 AM EST up reply actions  

most of his value comes from 0-0 contacts

He mashed a .955 on 0-0 counts last year, but only .703 after 1-0 and .664 after 0-1.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=6345

Also, for some reason Murphy does better after 0-1 counts than 1-0 counts (.869, .644, .792)

For reference:
Voltran (.979, 1.047, .763)
DW (.922, 1.018, .625)
Castillo (.723, .831, .653) (Only 30 first pitch contacts out of 556 PAs.)

by hotspur on Jan 4, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

This is a good suggestion. Whichever of the two has the day off, it means the bench has a good defensive replacement or a power PH (so depending on the other bench outfielder that could be limiting, but if it’s a good all-rounder then it’s not such a big deal…)

by deadspy3 on Jan 4, 2010 5:20 AM EST reply actions  

It might make sense, if Pagan will be starting fairly often,

making Francouer the de facto 4th OFer, to have a true glove man who can play CF as the 5th OFer. The Mets catch a break because Murphy and Evans can fake it enough in the OF and can hit enough to be valuable as the 6th and 7th OFers. In fact, a bench with Murphy, Francouer, Evans, Blanco, and a real MI would be one of the better benches in the majors.

by SeanSchirmer on Jan 4, 2010 5:32 AM EST up reply actions  

nice post

i was under the assumption that this was the plan.

by gbaked on Jan 4, 2010 7:57 AM EST reply actions  

sounds like

you made an “ass” out of “u” and “mption.” this would be fun, i hope it happens. pagan is fun to watch.

by Pack Bringley on Jan 4, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

A worthwhile point

but my faith in Jerry correctly managing a platoon is minimal.

by lefty vs lefty on Jan 4, 2010 11:40 AM EST reply actions  

My faith in Jerry managing is minimal...

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 4, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

My faith in Jerry managing is nonexistent...

The Mets lobby Omar for a plan, and his plan, he likes his plan. The problem is that he didn't write his plan down 'cause that makes it paperwork, and that’s false hustle... Know what I’m sayin’?

by Evan_S on Jan 4, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll give him credit, that he knows how to fill in players' names on the line-up card.

Beyond that- including filling in the BEST players on the line-up card, questions arise.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 4, 2010 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

The Problem of course is:

Mets management sees the “ability to play everyday” as one of Frenchy’s best qualities. By their messed up logic, if he’s not playing everyday, we’ll be losing one of his greatest attributes. Of course it makes no sense, but that hasn’t stopped them before.

by Mackey Sasser on Jan 4, 2010 5:43 PM EST reply actions  

I could see this becoming an unofficial platoon that just sorta happens in slow motion

so as not to embarrass Frenchy.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Jan 4, 2010 7:29 PM EST reply actions  

Terrible idea

and it’s embarrassing that no one’s pointed out the several reasons why yet.

There are plenty of reasons why this is a terrible idea, but it really comes down to three simple factors: age, experience (includes statistics) and health.

Here are the facts: Pagan is 28 and soon to be 29, has 872 career ABs in 267 career games and has been injured frequently throughout his 4 year MLB career.

Francouer will be 26 in 2010, has 2742 career ABs in 706 Gs and has never been on the DL (the thumb was the first significant injury in his pro-career and he played through it).

Both these guys can hit (Frankies better against lefties, Pagan against righties) and both these guys can field (who can field right better is debatable, but Franc’s arm is the best in the game), but those simple factors say Pagan’s suited for the 4th OF, spot starting duty while Francouer’s an everyday fielder.

Alright, lets forget about those 3 reasons and look at some others. Pagan, by all measures, is a leadoff hitter more than anything else. He has a little bit of power, but he’s probably a 20 HR max type player. Francouer on the hand is a middle of the lineup type who can hit for power. He has a 29 HR season under his belt already and nearly caught Daniel Murphy for the Mets lead in HRs last year, even though Murphy had 508 ABs compared to Francs 289 ABs in a Mets uniform. Clearly power is something the Mets need in their lineup and is part of the reason Bay was brought in.

The Mets have Reyes as the leadoff hitter (although I guess he could hit third lol) and also have to put Castillo somewhere in the lineup.

The opening day lineup will probably look like this: Reyes (S), Castillo(S), Wright®, Beltran(S), Bay®, Delgado(L), Franceour®, Molina/Thole/Santos, P (if delgado resigns, obviously)

Switching Pagan with Franc, you’ve got a player with no power hitting in front of two guys that won’t provide any protection. Last year Pagan batted leadoff and in theory had protection from batting in front of castillo and wright. Franc typically batted 5th and lower and clearly wasn’t getting any protection given the bandaid lineup the Mets had by the 2nd half last year.

Okay, lets take a little look around the league. Phillies and Yankees last year… no platoons at any position. Fulltime starters at every position.

The last three reasons are pretty simple. Beltran is playing on a knee that has more questions marks than the riddlers suit. Pagan is his primary backup going into next year and i expect he’s going to be getting a more than adequate amount of time in CF.

Second to last, an everyday starting spot is a privilege, a right and a sign of respect in MLB. Players become attached to their positions and with good reason. They’re creatures of habit and repetition, and each and everyone one of you knows damn well that if your boss came to you and said… hey, you only work good MWF, we’re going to have another guy do your job Tuesday and Thursday, you’d be pissed but you’d also question yourself and your ability and it would definitely mess with your head.

Finally, Franc’s been through this before. ATL’s management sent him to the minors without consultation or any sort of forewarning (not even a benching) and that created Franc’s distrust of ATL management (mostly Wren) while also messing with his head. If it wasn’t for the way this scenario went down, Franc might not be a Met (which ofcourse some of you wish for, foolishly). Anyways, the platoon situation would create the same sort of mistrust that bombed his last year and a half in ATL.

Franc’s going to get a full spring training with Hojo and his buddy Wright. If they can teach him some patience and pitch recognition against righties, he could even better than he was in 05, 06 and 07.

Give Francoeur at least a month or two to prove himself before you start calling for a platoon.

okay, two more quick reasons.

.260 for a righty against righties with a .677 OPS isn’t terrible by any means. Ryan Howard was .207 with a .653 OPS against lefties in 09. I’m not saying Franc is a player of Ryan’s stature by any means, but still, .207. That’s absolutely terrible.

Finally, money. Franc is paid like a starter. Pagan’s not. Crazy as it sounds (actually, in MLB, the idea that money and bad GM decisions don’t dictate everything that happens is a crazy idea), it does dictate to a certain amount who gets the playing time and who doesn’t, if only because the players union will file a grievance.

by MLB DW on Jan 4, 2010 10:19 PM EST reply actions  

Francoeur has already proven over the course of his career that he's not that good. What's left to prove?

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 4, 2010 10:39 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Didn't the Phillies platoon players in 08?

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 4, 2010 10:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Casey Stengel loved platooning as manager of the great Yankee teams.

Earl Weaver loved platooning as manager of the Baltimore Orioles during their best seasons.

by SeanSchirmer on Jan 5, 2010 9:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I highly doubt the players union favors a grievance

Over a managerial decision to split playing time between two players who produce at similar levels. No one is doing anything to spite any players here, they’re trying to win games. And even more, the two players have complimentary skillsets. They obviously both favor opposite platoon halves. They’re both at least adequate defensively. Pagan is rangier and Francoeur has the better arm. It may be nit picking a bit, but those seem like levergeable defensive skills to me. You generally let Pagan play when you have pitcher prone to fly-ball contact, like Maine or Ollie. But against aggressive baserunning teams, you can gamble on Francoeur’s arm becoming a factor and play him, hoping he’ll do more to keep the opposition from running wild on balls in play. How about games where the opposition features a battery that’s poor at preventing stolen bases? Give Pagan some points, since he’s clearly the better basestealer. If the opposing battery is good at throwing baserunners out, then maybe you put Francoeur in, who isn’t a good basestealer, but may be the better baserunner in other ways. When you’re facing off against a flyball pitcher, you can bank on Francoeur’s advantage in power being a bigger factor than usual, but if its a groundball pitcher, Pagan’s speed becomes more important. There are lots of day to day considerations as to why one might be the better choice to start over the other in a given game, and the lineup decisions should be treated that way.

What it ultimately has to come down to is production. Neither Francoeur or Pagan has earned a particularly long leash yet. They both have spotty track records and had BABIP fueled success last year. Pagan may not have much raw power, but he’s not a Luis Castillo or Juan Pierre type. His ISOs have been decent, he’s hardly someone you complain about batting seventh because of a lack of pop. The extra outs you get from Francoeur wipe out his power advantage, since it means turning the lineup over to the more productive parts takes longer.

The problem with both guys is they have limited upsides and considerable risks. I’m all for banking on Francoeurs raw power improvement last year. His BABIP was a mirage, at least to a degree, but if he can hit some balls really far it would make him at least a little usefu,l despite his anemic walk rate. But the best you can really expect is an ISO .140<x<.200 and an OBP .300<x<.340. That makes his ceiling something like .310 / .340 / .500. Meh. And the floor is .260 / .300 / .400. Yuck. Pagan’s problem is also that at best, he’s not incredibly productive. He probably has less upside but a better downside than the Frenchman. He also carries more health risk and less room for improvement over what he’s done recently, but his speed and defense give him two useful skills that he’s been able to display pretty consistently the last few years. But overall, what he did in 2009 is probably about as good as it gets for him, and its much better than anything he did before. A smart manager would do everything he could to emphasize each player’s strengths and hide their weaknesses. That probably means giving Francoeur the “starting” role, trying to reduce Pagan’s health risk and take advantage of Francoeur’s “upside”, but also playing Pagan more often than a typical “fourth outfielder” and frequently taking advantage of his speed, defense, and ability to hit left handed.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 5, 2010 12:55 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Unfortunately

there’s no real reason to think Manuel is capable of thinking that deeply about lineups. I mean we are talking about the man who couldn’t even figure out that Matt Diaz vs Pedro Feliciano was a bad idea.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 5, 2010 1:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Of course

Its probably worse that they have all these complimentary seeming skills, since Jerry is so prone to over-thinking.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Jan 5, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

All of these reasons are either irrelevant or incorrect.

Frankly, it’s embarrassing that you got so personally offended when a simple suggestion was made that would improve our team.

"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw

by squid92 on Jan 5, 2010 9:11 AM EST up reply actions  

You'd have to regress both platoon splits to get a better estimate of how they'd peform

At least via The Book

Also, I’d probably knock the combined estimate down a little bit because it’s likely that both players wouldn’t hit as well while adjusting to being platooned.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

Whomever Sabean signs this off-season will make a good platoon partner with Ryan Gark-ohh... nevermind...

by baetown415 on Jan 5, 2010 1:07 AM EST reply actions  

Better argument than I expected

While you make a more compelling argument than I expected, I simply don’t trust Pagan in anything more than a bench role. If Pagan is batting against righties, that gives him the majority of the ABs out in right. While he has the skill set to succeed, the man is the outfield version of Oliver Perez.

How many baserunning blunders and fielding blooper reels did he put together in his emergency role last year? He lacks the focus to play everyday, which is extremely frustrating because he shows he’s got the talent.

So while Frenchy’s statistics don’t look sustainable, I’m not sure Pagan is the answer we need.

by TJShortell on Jan 5, 2010 3:11 PM EST reply actions  

But do you trust Frenchy anymore in an everyday role?

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Jan 5, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

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