Learning From Your Enemies, Part 3: How Does Their Plan Apply?

In part one of this series, we established a similarity between the 2010 Mets and the 2005 Phillies. Though it was upsetting to look at the Phillies as a model, they did manage to move from the middle of the NL East table to the top in about sixteen months - and that sort of timetable would work just fine in the large media market that is New York.

In part two of the series, we went through the different moves that Pat Gillick made once he took over in late 2005 through the beginning of the 2007 season, and learned different lessons from each move. The moves were surprisingly simple, and the lessons begrudgingly applicable.

In the final part of the trio, let's take those lessons learned and apply them to the current roster. Perhaps we'll find a way out of this Omar-Minaya-inspired funk.

Lesson Learned: Deal from surplus to fill needs. Any fantasy owner could tell you the same.

Well, there's only one place that the Mets might be deemed to have a surplus, and that's in the outfield. Wilmer Flores is not close to ready, there's no shorstop or third baseman ready to step in, the second basemen are all hands on deck, and most of the pitching needs to stay in the organization. But the Mets have outfielders!

Then again, Jason Bay is probably untradeable right now. Ditto Carlos Beltran. And trading a cost-controlled young centerfielder (Angel Pagan) doesn't seem to the be the way out.

Which isn't to say that there isn't something to learn here. Say Beltran goes out next year and re-establishes his trade value with a nice half-season. Sudden surplus.

Lesson Learned: Don't spend a ton of resources on the bullpen, but do spend some attention on it.

Well, we might just be toast on this one, considering the $24.5 million left on Francisco Rodriguez' contract (and the monstrous $17.5 mill vesting option that looms large). Hopefully the new general manager won't send the current equivalents of Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez and Mike Carp to a team for their closer in order to have two over-priced options at the end of the bullpen.

Bullpen performances are so variable from year to year, the best approach is one that retains long-term flexability. Don't sign guys to long contracts if one or two of those years will necessarily be poor, injury-riddled, or both. It's not brain surgery, but it's one of Omar Minaya's worst weaknesses when it came to roster construction.

The right approach would have the new GM gather available arms on one-year contracts and camp invitations. Though Scott Downs has been great for a long time, why sink resources into your set-up man when so many are found on the scrap heap? Instead, invite players like Chad Durbin, Randy Choate, Will Ohman, Chad Qualls ... the list goes on. These aren't names that should demand long-term deals, and it's not even about the specific names - mre the strategy. These names are, however, names that could make up a very decent bullpen once supplemented by failed starters and surprise relievers from the minor league system.

Lesson Learned: Don't muck around with your exciting young starters (like Jenrry Mejia).

Well, that shouldn't be too hard. Start him at Double-A next year, and wait for him to dominate for more than 40 innings before bringing him up as a starter next year. It was surprising to see a player with 44 1/3 innings at Double-A make the regular season roster, but most Mets fans scratched their head at the decision to use him as a reliever and were ... relieved when he went back down to stretch out. A little more work on his secondary stuff, and he might regain the buzz he once had, since his sinker is already major-league ready.

Lesson Learned: Keep the long-term plan in mind, cut bait on short-term assets relatively quickly, and don't overpay when acquiring short-term assets. AND: Give young guys a shot if they seem ready and the team is struggling (a corollary to keeping the long-term plan in mind).

This is the toughest part of the plan for the Mets, who have only Johan Santana, David Wright, Jason Bay, Angel Pagan, Mike Pelfrey and Dan Murphy signed in 2012. They will need to give multiple youngsters a shot (mostly at second base and in the bullpen), which should be exciting and upsetting all at once, but they also don't have a ton of long-term assets in place - especially considering that Wright's deal expires after that 2012 season.

But it also means they'll have some expiring deals they can jettison next year if the going gets tough. Just as the Phillies dealt Bobby Abreu and Corey Lidle in early July 2006 when they were showing a middling record, the Mets should look to deal Carlos Beltran around the same time. If he can rebound a little, he might bring some prospects back at that point. If the team keeps John Maine on the roster hoping for the same sort of rebound, he'll be in the same position. The Mets probably won't get much back for Oliver Perez (badum-ching).

We know what Omar Minaya did when he joined the team - he signed Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez and wanted to make a splash. Though the Beltran deal was decent, the Martinez deal was not, and in either case, it looks like the new GM should have a different approach. Hopefully, he will identify the long-term assets, sign short-term free agents that help him retain flexibility, and jettison any short-term assets once the season is out of reach.

Lesson Learned: Back-of-the-rotation starters are fungible - keep the years and dollar signs as low as possible and move on once things don't work out.

The "Don't Sign Oliver Perez to Three Years and $36 Million" rule. This might be one of the harder ones for the new GM to follow, because Cliff Lee is an enticing prize this offseason. If the money is right, it might make sense to build around Lee, given his recent performance in the tougher league, but he is 32, and the GM really needs to do some soul-searching about the timeline for this team.

But if he keeps the money and years to a minimum, the new GM could fill the rotation with some decent names. Carl Pavano, David Bush, Jeremy Bonderman, Jake Westbrook and Hiroki Kuroda could all be had for many fewer dollars and years than Lee, and if things don't work out in 2011, they'll be much easier to send packing. Given the uncertainty surrounding Johan Santana and his shoulder, retaining flexibility is key.

Lesson Learned: Buy low on players that have shown promise even if they are somewhat flawed.

This is the kind of thing that is much easier in hindsight. Sure, Jayson Werth turned out great, but it took a major-league deal to get him to Philly, and you can't just hand out major league deals to players coming off poor seasons like candy at Halloween. But again, these short-term higher-upside deals can really work out, so a couple shots are worth it.

Names that might interest the new GM abound. Willie Harris could be a decent super-sub, and knows second base - his BABIP should return to normal levels given more at-bats. Xavier Nady is right-handed and has hit left-handers well, so he could spell Ike Davis at first or a corner outfielder as well. If Jose Lopez is nigh-free, the potential for passable power for a decent price at a tough position for the Mets is worth a shot. He's no clutch monster, and he has no plate discipline, but he's shown real power before.

And this is only looking at straight free agents. Once the non-tenders come through, the new GM should be trolling the wire, looking for a buy-low. An open ear to the stat guys would help in this regard.

Lesson Learned: Some guys will get away. It's okay. Keep dealing.

This was actually one of Omar Minaya's strengths. He didn't allow too many good prospects to leave the system, and his trade for Santana was actually a high point given the way the prospects turned out. It doesn't seem like the Mets are in position to trade for pieces, but if you're working on the idea that the Mets can contend in two years, then you'll have to let a guy like Brad Holt or Kirk Nieuwenhuis go. There are reasons to like both guys, and there are reasons to be suspicious of them. Depending on the return, you could let them go. Maybe one turns into Gavin Floyd, maybe not.

Lesson Learned: Sign your cornerstones before they hit the free market.

We got this one handled when it came to Jose Reyes and David Wright, but they'll face the issue with Josh Thole and Ike Davis shortly. In those cases, the definition of 'cornerstone' will come into play. Thole and Davis seem more like complementary parts, but if the new GM likes what he sees in Davis, locking him up with a club option for his first free agent year seems like the way to go. Thole shouldn't put up the big numbers that arbitrators love to reward, so keeping him on the arb pipeline might be a better way to go. It doesn't seem like he really has the power or defense that demands a long-term deal, and he might be more of a guy you want to keep around while he is cheap.

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So there you have it. It's not an exciting plan that most want to hear. It's no "Sign Cliff Lee, Orlando Hudson, and Carl Crawford" plan. Instead, the plan seems to be that the Mets need to improve the core and work around the edges - draft well, develop well, keep cornerstones on long-term deals during peak years, and sign short-term deals to fill in the holes around those talents. "Sign Carl Pavano, Willie Harris and Chad Qualls" doesn't have the same ring to it, but it's also much more likely to happen, and hopefully more likely to lead to long-term success for the Metropolitans.