Mets Community Prospect List 2010: The Reckoning
by squid92 on Oct 23, 2010 8:17 PM EDT
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PrintWell, it took a while, but we finally got through all 20 spots. For your viewing pleasure:
- Wilmer Flores
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis
- Reese Havens
- Matt Harvey
- Jeurys Familia
- Lucas Duda
- Darrell Ceciliani
- Aderlin Rodriguez
- Cesar Puello
- Zach Lutz
- Dillon Gee
- Kyle Allen
- Cory Vaughn
- Sean Ratliff
- Mark Cohoon
- Juan Urbina
- Steven Matz
- Armando Rodriguez
- Matt den Dekker
- Jefry Marte
And the list from last year:
- Fernando Martinez
- Jenrry Meija
- Brad Holt
- Wilmer Flores
- Jonathon Niese
- Reese Havens
- Josh Thole
- Ike Davis
- Ruben Tejada
- Jefry Marte
- Jeurys Familia
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis
- Brant Rustich
- Robert Carson
- Kyle Allen
- Scott Moviel
- Dillon Gee
- Francisco Pena
- Zach Lutz
- Eric Beaulac
Graduations: Martinez, Mejia, Niese, Thole, Davis, Tejada
Fallen Off the List: Holt, Rustich, Carson, Moviel, Pena, Beaulac
Newcomers: Harvey, Duda, Ceciliani, Ad. Rodriguez, Puello, Vaughn, Ratliff, Cohoon, Urbina, Matz, Ar. Rodriguez, den Dekker
Movement: Nieuwenhuis (+10 spots), Lutz (+9 spots), Familia (+6 spots), Gee (+6 spots), Flores (+3 spots), Havens (+3 spots), Allen (+3 spots), Marte (-10 spots)
Tidbits:
- I really have no idea how Kyle Allen did so awfully this year, and still moved up 3 spots. Sure, he was pitching hurt, but that's still weird.
- 5 of the 6 players that fell off the list because of sucking or indifference were pitchers, and only 4 out of the 12 new players were pitchers (2 of whom did not throw a pitch for the organization all season, and one of the two that did threw less than 50 IP). Yes, it was that kind of year for Mets minor league pitching.
- Oy, Brad Holt. That one hurts.
- Eddie Kunz got robbed both years.
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Kunz sure deserves more than Allen
KYLE Allen? (facepalm). at least Brad Holt I understand…if he were on the list
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
what how
what is your beef with kyle allen, he’s had one really bad year likely in large part due to a back injury and is only 20. Kunz has been nothing but awful and is in his mid 20s.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
I guess I just don't like injured guys with potential
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Oct 24, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
but you prefer crappy guys with zero potential?
I mean what in the world kind of argument could Kunz have over anyone? I’m a better prospect than Kunz.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Kunz is supposed to be a perennial joke, as a reminder of our crappy organizational philosophy in the draft.
One time or another, someone actually takes this seriously.
In these cases, like to bring up this post:
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/8/11/985552/vote-kunz-in-todays-prospect-list
I look at the list for this year and go "Geez that sucks"
Then I look at all the rookies who graduated this year in Martinez, Mejia, Niese, Thole, Davis, and Tejada and I really like what the Mets can be if they hire Sandy Alderson and make some smart choices.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Oct 24, 2010 10:19 AM EDT reply actions
Three of those graduates flunked, though
and I agree that you remove the other three from the prospect list, the system is looking very, very thin. There’s literally no one in the system at all likely to make any kind of impact in 2011, and no one having a solid ride to ML regular status in 2012. Jeez. It’s worse than I thought. Is the team any longer even in the top half among minor league systems? Among the top two-thirds??
I may be less optimistic than you wrt to those six. I don’t see Martinez and Tejada as anything more than backups. Thole may have trouble developing enough power to be anything more than useful roster filler, Davis just had a year about as good as its going to get for him, and Niese looks good, but his upside is Pelfrey’s career. Nothing to sneeze at, but nothing special, either.
I don't think it's fair to fault Mejia for 'failing', though
It’s not like throwing a 20-year old pitcher with very limited exposure above A-ball was going to go well. The only thing good that could have come out of that experiment is that he didn’t suffer a major injury.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 26, 2010 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, it's not his fault, that's clear enough, any more than
Martinez’s struggles in the majors are because he’s a bum. Or Tejada’s. Hmm. I wonder if there’s a trend at work here…
yeah, those 21 year olds are total bums
relax. I don’t think Martinez is gonna be anything particularly special, but he’s not a “bum”. Get over yourself.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
It's called sarcasm. I'd encourage you to read for comprehension
it I didn’t think it was a stretch. Get over yourself yourself.
Thole had a better wOBA than the MLB average for catchers in his rookie year.
I don’t think his success is contingent on his developing power.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
Also better defensively than I ever believed he'd be
I used to project Thole as a bench guy because I thought he’d always be a below average defender. Instead he threw out 44% of runners, allowed only 14 steals and 4 passed balls in 467 innings, and did a great job calling games and handling the staff.
As far as I’m concerned, he’s the starter.
He’s basically a league average .330 wOBA type bat. That and poor defense might make you a good lefty offensive bench catcher. With league average defense, it makes you a 2.5-3.0 WAR starter.
Good points. There's every reason to be optimistic
about Thole’s future.
His performance last season,
it’s made me optimistic. So many reports said that he’d be a back-up at best, and he proved those reports wrong. Given that he certainly still has plenty of time to improve, and didn’t necessarily have a ‘career year’, based on his past numbers, I’m looking forward to Thole next season.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 27, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Likewise, even though wOBA overvalues Thole.
All singles are not created equal, and a Josh Thole single gains overly from wOBA’s constant valuing of singles in that it counts every single as having a run value of 0.76 (and every double at 1.09). If you take a look at his hit chart (here, for example: http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=nym&playerID=489365&statType=1) it’s far more difficult for a runner to advance the extra base on a Josh Thole single to the shallow outfield (ALL his OF singles are shallow) than on a David Wright single. It’s the same with doubles (if Thole actually, you know, hit any).
Thole’s stats remind me in a way of Dave Magadan, another good OBP guy, in that they both hit for a pretty good average, took a good number of walks, and yet scored far fewer runs than you’d expect, and in practice weren’t nearly as valuable as some of the more advanced metrics suggested. Some of that was batting order position, in Thole’s case, but it still stands out when you look at his numbers.
His D, though, was a terrific surprise. Did any Mets pitchers talk specifically about his gamecalling ability (assuming he was allowed to call pitches)?
Not really game-calling per say
but I seem to remember Dickey being very impressed the 1st time Thole caught him this season. I could just be making that up though.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
I don't know if you're making that up
but he did catch Dickey in the Minors, and was comfortable with him. And, it’s not easy catching knuckleballers, as we know. So, yeah.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 27, 2010 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I know he caught him in AAA.
Just seem to remember Dickey mentioning he felt really comfortable pitching to Thole or something like that (which could’ve simply been familiarity like you kind of said).
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
It's a good top 20
Right now I have it:
- B+ R 3B Wilmer Flores
- B+ R SP Matt Harvey
- B R RF Cesar Puello
- B- L SP Juan Urbina
- B- L OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis
- B- L 2B Reese Havens
- B- L LF Lucas Duda
- B- R RF Cory Vaughn
- B- R SP Jeurys Familia
- B- L CF Darrell Ceciliani
- B- R 3B Aderlin Rodriguez
- C+ R SP Dillon Gee
- C+ R 3B Zach Lutz
- C+ R 3B Jefry Marte
- C+ L RF Sean Ratliff
- C L SP Stephen Matz
- C R SP Brad Holt
- C R SP Kyle Allen
- C L SS Jordany Valdespin
- C L SP Rob Carson
- C R SP Erik Goeddel
- C R CA Albert Cordero
- C L SP Zach Dotson
- C R SS Robbie Shields
- C R SP Akeel Morris
- C R 3B Eric Campbell
- C L OF Matt Den Dekker
- C R SS Wilfredo Tovar
- C R OF Juan Lagares
- C R 3B Brian Harrison
On the whole, that’s not a bad group. I think there’s a lot of potential there, and in another year, people will be a bit more familiar with some of these names.
Albert Cordero
What do you think his upside is? How far away is he from Citi Field?
Sandy Alderson for Mets GM
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
Al Cordero
Well, he’s a guy I haven’t seen yet, wasn’t really on the radar until this season. But he was statistically one of the most promising bats in the Appalachian League, ranking 15th here, on a list that doesn’t account for positional value, only offensive projection. And on top of that he got some rave reviews for his defense, especially from Mike DeFelice. Add in that all that seems to be somewhat confirmed by some positive comments from both Mike Newman and Toby Hyde who saw him late after a promotion to Savannah (link, link).
I would guess he’s as many as 4 years away though. I doubt a catcher is going to be moved too quickly, probably a level per year for the most part.
Thanks for those links
That first one is very interesting. The scouting report rates him at a 70 for power (which is what we want need in a catcher), but has him at a 28 for strike zone which agrees with your guess that he’s years away.
Sandy Alderson for Mets GM
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
He doesn't have that much power
That’s not a scouting report with the 70, that’s really a stats report, based on the numbers he put up in the Appalachian League. The actual scouting report from Newman is probably more accurate:
However, Cordero struck me as more of a line drive spray hitter in game action and my gut tells me his power may not translate fully at higher levels.
So the search for our Catcher of the Future continues
If the Mets draft Blake Swihart, we’ll be absolutely set by the time that Josh Thole joins AARP.
Sandy Alderson for Mets GM
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
Jordany Valdespin
He’s doing really well in the AFL. In 10 games, he’s hitting .297/.333/.432 with 2 doubles, a HR and 4 SB. He has 6 Ks in 37 AB, but only 2 BBs. 4 of his Ks were in his first 3 games.
This is a small sample, but I was thinking that he would have to start 2011 back in AA. Now I’m wondering if he can start in AAA.
Sandy Alderson for Mets GM
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
Valdespin can hit some
He’s a natural with the bat. Very quick bat, great knack for making good hard contact. His problem is plate discipline; he never walks. He needs to learn to wait for his pitch instead of trying to hit everything. He only had 10 walks on the season (2.5% of PA).
He also has nice tools for the middle infield, but is overly aggressive and mistake prone on the defensive end as well. His lack of polish means he’ll need a full season in AA. He’s probably facing too many pitchers in the AFL who haven’t seen him yet and don’t really have scouting reports.
2010 draft
Maybe slightly off topic, but this seems like a good place for prospect talk generally. It’s subscriber content, but BA in it’s 2010 draft review had:
Best Defensive Player
1. Andrelton Simmons, ss, Braves (2)
2. Gary Brown, of, Giants (1)
3. Roberto Pena, c, Astros (7)
4. Matt den Dekker, of, Mets (5)
5. Rico Noel, of, Padres (5)
Best Secondary Pitch
1. Jameson Taillon, rhp, Pirates (1)
2. Drew Pomeranz, lhp, Indians (1)
3. Matt Harvey, rhp, Mets (1)
4. Stetson Allie, rhp, Pirates (2)
5. Chris Sale, lhp, White Sox (1)
Best Late-Round Pick
Above-Slot Bonuses
1. Ty Linton, of, Diamondbacks (14)
2. Erik Goeddel, rhp, Mets (24)
3. Jordan Shipers, lhp, Mariners (16)
4. Kyle Waldrop, of, Reds (12)
5. Tony Dischler, rhp, Indians (23)
Add in a very strong debut from Cory Vaughn, and the 2010 draft looks pretty decent to me.
What is Harvey's secondary pitch?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 24, 2010 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Curve
The Mets like his curve, grade it a 70 (plus-plus). Some also like his slider as a plus pitch though.
by acerimusdux on Oct 24, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, so his curve, the Mets like his curve.
That’s good that it’s a curve. At the end of the day, a strike is a strike, an out is an out, but, I swear, if I see another fastball/change-up/slider pitcher…Not enough Mets pitchers have/use a good curveball. There’s Niese, and that’s pretty much it.
If I am not mistaken, was it Peterson, who had Pelfrey and/or Maine scrap improving their curveballs in lieu of sliders? Or, something to that effect.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 25, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions
i think that's in large part
because Peterson eradicated the curve when he was here.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Always sensible
to take a blanket approach with your students rather than waste time by figuring out their individual skill set and how to enhance it.
Kinda odd, too,
because it’s not like Peterson had/has a reputation as a poor pitching coach or anything.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 26, 2010 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions
And not like...
Barry Zito never threw a curveball.
Well, Zito already knew/"mastered" his curveball
He started throwing it when he was like 8, or something silly like that.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 27, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
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