FanPost

2010 Postmortem and 2011 Napkin Projection

 

The idea here's pretty simple. This isn't an offseason plan, but an attempt to look at where the Mets are in terms of on-field talent, and where we can reasonably expect to go from here.

Rasputin-1_medium

2010 METS fWAR

2.1  C Thole + Barajas

3.4  1B Eisenhower

0.6  2B Castillo

2.8 SS Joe Kings

4.0 3B Wrongz

1.4 LF Bay

1.0 RF Voltron + Frenchman

4.9 CF Oxymoron

-1.1 All other position players

19.1 HITTERS TOTAL

 

3.5 Santana

2.9 Large Pelf

2.9 DICKEY

1.9 Niese

0.5 Misch

0.3 Gee

-1.0 All other starters

4.7 Good bullpen guys (K-Rod, Tak, Pedro, Parnell, Acosta)

-2.8 Bad bullpen guys (Nieve, Ollie, Dessens, Iggy, Green, Mejia)

12.9 PITCHERS TOTAL

 

32.0 TOTAL, plus 48.0 REPLACEMENT

EXPECTED RECORD: 80-82

ACTUAL RECORD: 79-83

 

Now on to the "projections". These aren't scientific at all, just my gut feeling for a most likely outcome for each player. I encourage quibbling.

Ike_medium

2011 METS NAPKIN PROJECTIONS

 

2.0 C Thole

3.0 1B Eisenhower

1.0 2B Castillo

4.0 SS Joe Kings

4.0 3B Wrongz

2.0 LF Bay

2.0 RF Voltron

4.0 CF Oxymoron

-1.0 Bench (Arias, Nickeas, Carter, Duda, Nick Who, Murphy, Tejada)

21.0 HITTERS TOTAL

 

2.0 Santana

2.5 Large Pelf

2.0 DICKEY

2.0 Niese

0.5 Gee

0.5 Misch

2.5 Bullpen (Parnell, Valdes, Acosta, Ollie, Iggy, Domestic-Violence-Rod)

12.0 PITCHERS TOTAL

 

33.0 TOTAL, plus 48.0 REPLACEMENT

EXPECTED RECORD: 81-81

 

Now with some hopefully plausible (not too expensive) improvements on this baseline:

1.0 A couple decent bullpen guys

1.0 Cutting Ollie

1.5 A couple quality bench bats

0.5 Backup catcher

1.5 Genuine second baseman

1.5 Serviceable fifth starter

1.0 Successful prospect call-up

1.0 A teeny bit of good luck!

EXPECTED RECORD: 90-72

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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