The idea here's pretty simple. This isn't an offseason plan, but an attempt to look at where the Mets are in terms of on-field talent, and where we can reasonably expect to go from here.
2010 METS fWAR
2.1 C Thole + Barajas
3.4 1B Eisenhower
0.6 2B Castillo
2.8 SS Joe Kings
4.0 3B Wrongz
1.4 LF Bay
1.0 RF Voltron + Frenchman
4.9 CF Oxymoron
-1.1 All other position players
19.1 HITTERS TOTAL
3.5 Santana
2.9 Large Pelf
2.9 DICKEY
1.9 Niese
0.5 Misch
0.3 Gee
-1.0 All other starters
4.7 Good bullpen guys (K-Rod, Tak, Pedro, Parnell, Acosta)
-2.8 Bad bullpen guys (Nieve, Ollie, Dessens, Iggy, Green, Mejia)
12.9 PITCHERS TOTAL
32.0 TOTAL, plus 48.0 REPLACEMENT
EXPECTED RECORD: 80-82
ACTUAL RECORD: 79-83
Now on to the "projections". These aren't scientific at all, just my gut feeling for a most likely outcome for each player. I encourage quibbling.
2011 METS NAPKIN PROJECTIONS
2.0 C Thole
3.0 1B Eisenhower
1.0 2B Castillo
4.0 SS Joe Kings
4.0 3B Wrongz
2.0 LF Bay
2.0 RF Voltron
4.0 CF Oxymoron
-1.0 Bench (Arias, Nickeas, Carter, Duda, Nick Who, Murphy, Tejada)
21.0 HITTERS TOTAL
2.0 Santana
2.5 Large Pelf
2.0 DICKEY
2.0 Niese
0.5 Gee
0.5 Misch
2.5 Bullpen (Parnell, Valdes, Acosta, Ollie, Iggy, Domestic-Violence-Rod)
12.0 PITCHERS TOTAL
33.0 TOTAL, plus 48.0 REPLACEMENT
EXPECTED RECORD: 81-81
Now with some hopefully plausible (not too expensive) improvements on this baseline:
1.0 A couple decent bullpen guys
1.0 Cutting Ollie
1.5 A couple quality bench bats
0.5 Backup catcher
1.5 Genuine second baseman
1.5 Serviceable fifth starter
1.0 Successful prospect call-up
1.0 A teeny bit of good luck!
EXPECTED RECORD: 90-72






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