2010 Postmortem: Starting Pitchers

by James Kannengieser on Oct 29, 2010 2:20 AM EDT

We interrupt Alderson Avenue's regularly scheduled programming to bring you this long overdue 2010 starting pitching review.

As a unit, Mets starting pitchers were average to slightly above average in 2010. Preseason expectations were exceeded, mainly due to the emergence of one R.A. Dickey. Mike Pelfrey, Johan Santana and Jon Niese were also strong, while Opening Day rotation members Oliver Perez and John Maine were not. To keep this fresh, I'll present the starters' seasons in graph form. The following are chronological plottings of each pitcher's Game Score throughout the 2010 season. It's an easy way to view the ups and downs of the pitchers. A higher Game Score is better -- for reference, Dickey's 1-hit shutout of the Phillies registered a 91, while Ollie's 3.1 inning, 7 run stinkbomb against the Marlins in May tallied a 16.

Mike Pelfrey

Johan Santana

Jon Niese

R.A. Dickey

Hisanori Takahashi

John Maine

Pat Misch

Oliver Perez

Dillon Gee

Jenrry Mejia

Raul Valdes

Fernando Nieve

Let's keep this brief. Of this crew, Pelfrey, Niese and Dickey are projected to be in the 2011 Opening Day rotation. I think Pelfrey will maintain his 2008-2010 performance, Niese will improve and Dickey will fall off a bit. All should be above average. I'm not expecting anything from Santana and the Mets should add two starting pitchers.

Trading for James Shields or Matt Garza will be discussed ad nauseum this offseason and with good reason. The Mets should pursue both -- Shields is better but each would be a strong addition to the rotation. Fernando Martinez, Lucas Duda and Kirk Nieuwenhuis are all available in a trade. There are some decent free agent options available -- Javier Vazquez, Jake Westbrook, Carl Pavano and Jorge de la Rosa are a few. My target would be Hiroki Kuroda. Yes, he's old (36 in February) and an obvious injury risk, but he's also quite good. A two year contract in Joel Pineiro territory (~$8 million per year) might lock him up.

Gee and Takahashi are in my Opening Day bullpen, and both are capable of starting when need be. Mejia starts the season in the minors. Same with Misch. Quality depth at minimal cost is the goal here. Cliff Lee is a pipe dream and when he doesn't sign with the Mets no one should complain.

Desired 2011 starting rotation: James Shields, Hiroki Kuroda, Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey, Jon Niese

Projected 2011 starting rotation: Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, Vazquez/Pavano/Westbrook, pray for Johan

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Comments

The Mejia graph

still has me chuckling.

by Five-Tool Tool on Oct 29, 2010 2:27 AM EDT reply actions

That is an insult to the masterpiece that is Rite of Spring

by secret defense on Oct 29, 2010 3:01 AM EDT reply actions

this would have been a more appropriate analogy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TH5ibABP4U

by secret defense on Oct 29, 2010 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions

I spent so much of this season

looking at AA that I forgot to notice Johan’s staggeringly awesome ERA. I wish I could go back.

Geddy Lee sucks balls!

by HoJoHeff on Oct 29, 2010 3:02 AM EDT reply actions

I wish Ollie had had one good outing

so that the “so mature!” meme could have been used.

Thus Spoke Keith Hernandez

Let's never bunt again.

by Thomas Wachtel on Oct 29, 2010 3:04 AM EDT reply actions

The graphs were hilarious.

Thank you and well done.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.

by Ogre39666 on Oct 29, 2010 3:51 AM EDT reply actions

Wait, John Maine had good starts?

Formerly firejerrynow

by Aidan Gibson on Oct 29, 2010 6:16 AM EDT reply actions

I was so confused by Ollie's graph

seemed way better than I thought it would. Then I noticed it was on a scale of 0 to 70, all the rest were 0 to 100. Classic.

Also, love the NBA Jams references.

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Oct 29, 2010 6:45 AM EDT reply actions

Suggestion: James could format all graphs at 0-100 scale. It'll be easier to compare the graphs.

Maine and Ollie didn’t have ups and downs, just mids and downs downs.

The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Oct 29, 2010 7:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Great suggestion

And done.

by James Kannengieser on Oct 29, 2010 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions

If you've got the time

A thin dotted line, in a color that contrasts the blue, across 50 would also be nice.

The Mets GM is Sandy Alderson: A Dynasty is Born
R.A. Dickey for Governor!

by Russ on Oct 29, 2010 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't

But next time I’ll remember that.

by James Kannengieser on Oct 29, 2010 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions

I would like to point out that R.A. Dickey's graph

looks suspiciously like a knuckleball.

It's a grand old team to play for, it's a grand old team to support!

by pshahbaz on Oct 29, 2010 8:22 AM EDT reply actions

Niese ran out of gas

he looked great until the end of August. I think when it is a young guy it is just a matter of getting your stamina built up for the 162 games. I think he will be better conditioned and maybe not 2011 but by 2012 be a very consistent #3 starter. A guy who can throw a shutout a couple of times a year but also get knocked around a time or two.

Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all

by Rickfansince76 on Oct 29, 2010 8:35 AM EDT reply actions

Gee, not sure what to think

he gave up less long balls at the major league level than at AAA. Can he be an effective #5. maybe so…put it this way he is well above Ollie who was one of our 5 this year

Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all

by Rickfansince76 on Oct 29, 2010 8:37 AM EDT reply actions

He might be a pitcher with an ERA and xFIP that are just constantly, and widely divergant

Considering our starting pitcher depth, we should go with gee until a regression kicks in.

The Mets GM is Sandy Alderson: A Dynasty is Born
R.A. Dickey for Governor!

by Russ on Oct 29, 2010 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I believe we see someone get traded

and I think it is between Pelfrey, Niese, and Gee. Sandy will want to change things some.

I think Dickey is back and Johan when he is ready of course

Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all

by Rickfansince76 on Oct 29, 2010 8:38 AM EDT reply actions

Why trade any of these pitchers when we have so little starting pitcher depth?

Gee seems like he might be a good long reliever/ spot starter. Niese and Pelfrey are good middle of the rotation pitchers. Add in a healthy Santana (probably not before 2012) and Dickey, and we only have five starting pitchers.

Once one of our prospects like Mejia, Harvey and Matz become ready, Gee, if he is still effective, may simply move to the bullpen and we’ll still be at five starting pitchers. Once a second prospect becomes ready, if the other starting pitchers are still healthy, we can consider trading one not named Dickey.

The Mets GM is Sandy Alderson: A Dynasty is Born
R.A. Dickey for Governor!

by Russ on Oct 29, 2010 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Gee projects to be a nice #5 if not the best #5 in the league.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.

by Ogre39666 on Oct 29, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha I love Maine’s graph… “we may have something here… nevermind”. I got a laugh out of Valdes’ too.

As for the pitchers, I’d be all over Kuroda; pitchers who get a lot of groundballs, throw strikes, and can even miss bats at an above average rate are good. The only blemish on Kuroda’s resume is that hes going to be 36 on 2011 Opening Day. Pavano wouldn’t be a bad addition either, but I look at him as more of a fallback option to Kuroda (there is no chance we can afford both). As far as trades go, I rather have Shields. Stick him in Citi Field and watch that HR rate (and FIP) drop; he’d be a frontline starter.

by nmigliore on Oct 29, 2010 9:40 AM EDT reply actions

Don't know why everyone's drooling over Kuroda

I get that he has good numbers but he’s going to be 36; people start complaining when I suggest a 31 year old. I’d much rather have De La Rosa.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.

by Ogre39666 on Oct 29, 2010 12:28 PM EDT reply actions

Looking at his NPB stats, compared with his MLB stats,

he’s still chugging along, at age 36. He’s throwing 200 +/- innings, with good peripherals that aren’t dropping off a cliff or anything. De La Rosa, he’s a lot more all over the place- had good stretches, had bad stretches, up and down. I’d rather have old reliable, personally.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 29, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd rather have a young guy who put up decent numbers in Coors Field

and would be coming to one of the best pitcher’s park in the MLB.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.

by Ogre39666 on Oct 29, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Nieve

-1 WAR in 2 IP? Wow.

by JoshNY on Oct 29, 2010 12:33 PM EDT reply actions

The WAR is overall

So it includes his time as a reliever.

by James Kannengieser on Oct 29, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey James

I agree with your ideas about our pitching next year. However, why would you keep Gee in the bullpen and make him a spot starter? He did so well last year in september. Why not let him start out in AAA and if he blows em away call him up?

by rvgonzo3 on Oct 29, 2010 3:55 PM EDT reply actions