Another Ridiculous Trade Proposal
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 30, 2010 9:41 AM EDT
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PrintSo I made a post a couple days ago outlining a pretty ridiculous trade, and it generated a lot of cool discussion about FIP and xFIP, weighing risks, the value of our prospects, the philosophy of fans about the farm amongst other things. So I thought I'd generate another ridiculous move in aims of getting more commentary for the teams involved.
Check this out:
Mets get RHP James Shields, RHP Matt Garza, C Kelly Shoppach and SS Jason Bartlett
Rays get SS Jose Reyes, 1B Lucas Duda 1B/OF Nick Evans, OF Sean Ratliff
Reasoning for Rays: The Rays just made the playoffs, and despite losing Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena still have a very strong team for 2011. Jose Reyes would help Desmond Jennings in filling the absence of Crawford in the order, and is a significant improvement over Jason Bartlett in a variety of ways. The Rays would have to take on his $11 million salary for 2011, but in losing the four players they do the salary evens out pretty nicely. In addition they receive Lucas Duda, who could be a darkhorse candidate to replace Pena for 2011, Nick Evans, who would be a valuable player in aiding Lucas Duda at 1B and Matt Joyce at DH, and Sean Ratliff, a corner outfield prospect with great power potential. Additionally, they gain two first round draft picks with Reyes' departure.
Reasoning for Mets: Reyes will likely demand a pretty heft extension, but with his main tool in jeopardy this may not be the most attractive option for the Mets, who simply cannot count on him as being an asset. The Mets in this case would have gaps at shortstop and second base. They could either take their chance with Bartlett or non-tender him and head after the 2010 Twins double play combo in J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson, while developing Reese Havens and Ruben Tejada in the minors, and having Justin Turner be a valuable MLB backup. They'd gain two very good pitchers to fill out their rotation in the absence of Santana without paying too steep a cost, and gain a good backup catcher and platoon partner for Josh Thole. Kelly Shoppach has hit at a career .286/.381/.568 clip against AL left-handers. Lucas Duda, Sean Ratliff and Nick Evans would all be a minimal loss to the Mets, who have a wealth of corner position hitting prospects.
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The Rays are giving up way too much and getting far too little in return.
Beyond Reyes, they aren’t getting any potentially elite players back. I can’t see why they’d even consider this.
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 30, 2010 9:54 AM EDT reply actions
middle/top of the rotation pitchers and SSs
Are 2 of the most valuable trade assets. After the Rays GM gets off the phone, he would no doubt touch base with other GMs. Trading them individually would generate quite a haul.
The Rays aren't getting enough back to do this deal.
The three guys you offer here don’t have enough upside to justify the players they’d get back.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 30, 2010 11:56 AM EDT reply actions
I'd say
A year of Reyes is a pretty good exchange for one of the pitchers, and the picks he returns plus useful pieces in Evans and Duda and a solid prospect in Ratliff and the unloading of Bartlett and Shoppach make for the second one.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 30, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I still don't see why the Rays would do this
All four players you propose they give up are still either arb-eligible, or cost-controlled for at least one more year. Here’s what they’re owed:
Shields: $4.25 (2011), with club options for 2012-14 of $7, $9, and $12 M, with respective buyouts of $2, $1.5, and $1 million
Shoppach: $3 (2011), with club option for 2012 of $3.2 with 300K buyout.
Garza and Bartlett are still arb-eligible, with no money currently owed them for 2011 and beyond.
Reyes has an $11 M option for 2011, with a 500K buyout. Duda makes the minimum, and Ratliff is still in the minors. So the Rays are taking on far more salary than they’re giving up, and losing two good starting pitchers, for a SS (which they don’t need, as they’ve got 3: Bartlett, Brignac, and Zobrist), and 1B/LF whose splits strongly indicate is at best a platoon/PH option, another LF, and a AA corner OF with a high K% and low BB%. Oh, and the two picks they’d get if the SS signs elsewhere next season. There’s no reason for the Rays to make this deal. Reyes is coming off a down year, and none of the other guys you offer here are all that valuable. Either of those pitchers alone can bring in a better haul than this.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 30, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not an awful proposal...
just that dealing both in the same deal minimizes the value for the Rays, whereas they can deal them separately and get more most likely. Personally, I don’t want to deal Reyes and honestly, how would the Rays afford Reyes after this season, especially when they can keep Shields who is under their control for 4 more seasons with those 3 option years? Like I said, it’s interesting but TB would ultimately reject this. I do like Bartlett though if he can come close to replicating 2009.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Oct 30, 2010 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
I think this is a deal
where both teams come out worse
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
by Gina on Oct 30, 2010 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I don't know if it really makes the Mets worse
If anything I’d think it would make them quite a bit better overall and make pitching a real strength going forward. Once again though, I don’t see why Tampa would ever even consider this, it’s way too little for way too much.
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 30, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it makes the mets worse
because we could pretty easily get players on the fa market, not as cheaply albiet, to do what garza and shields would do, without giving up Reyes. And Jason Bartlett is hardly a viable replacement.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Bascally Shoppach and Bartlett at this point are replacement fodder
so I wouldn’t really put any value on them, and neither of them are particularly cheap relative to what it would cost to get their value on the fa market, bartlett made 4 million last year and is going into his 3rd arb year so I’m guessing he’ll get between 6-8 million, i.e not much cheaper than the vastly superior Reyes, Shoppach is owed 3 million so that’s 9 million tied up it players who were worth 1 WAR last year, though Shoppach will probably be worth more than that but I’m not sure enough to make the total package price tag worth it .
And Garza is going into year 2 of arbitration and he has shiny arb stats so it’s entirely possible he’ll be overpaid by year 3 and not even much of a bargain this year. I really think we could find a better deal on the fa market than we’d get for him, barring a major step forward or turn around in production. Shields is the only real bargain and even then we’d end up with a higher payroll than we have now and a gaping hole at ss, since like I said I don’t think Bartlett should be considered a viable replacement.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Bartlett has averaged about 2.9 WAR per 600 PA's over the course of his career.
He’s no Reyes, but he’s an adequate SS. When we’d get a pair of guys who likely project to be 3 WAR pitchers as well and a catcher who’s likely about league average on a typical year under cheap deals, I can’t see how 3 fringy prospects and a good shortstop who’s about to get fairly expensive would make us worse. I also don’t see why the small market Rays would ever consider this…if anything they’d be looking to add 4 cheap pieces for 1 that’s getting expensive.
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 30, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
It would make us worse
because Reyes is likely to be a much better playr than Bartlett next year. Bartlett’s average 2.9 WAR, but that’s largely in part to the huge outlier 4.9 WAR season last year, which nothing in his career numbers says was anything but a fluke. It’s more likely he barely breaks 2 WAR next year than he approaches 3 WAR. And for the money he’ll likely get in arbitration, upwards of 6 million, he’s not enough cheaper than Reyes’s 11 million to make up for the difference when there’s plenty of reason to think Reyes could break 4 WAR if he stays on the field. Shoppach projects to be about league average but we can find a catcher who projects to be that splitting time with Thole for less than the 3 million he’s owed
And I don’t really see how garza projects to be a 3 WAR pitcher, if anything he seems to be trending down. His groundball rate has been decreasing since 08, his hr rate increasing, his k rate is decreasing and his xFIP puts him barely above average for 2 of the last 3 years. I think he projects to be a 2ish WAR pitcher who’s going to get overpaid in arbitration because of his shiny ERA numbers. And we could do better on the FA market. I just don’t see the point of trading for assets not much cheaper than their fa market counterparts.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
to elaborate on bartlett
his defensive numbers have been trending down and approaching nightmarish, and only once in the last 4 years has (have?) his hitting WAR component even been average for short stops,and that was in his insane 09 season which seems to be more of a fluke than anything based on the trend the other 3 years have followed. I just don’t see how he can reasonably be projected to 3 WAR without expecting another fluke season with the bat, since most of his numbers this year were in line with his career totals.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Well in Dealing Reyes and acquiring Bartlett
I’d non-tender Barlett or re-deal him for crappy prospects and head after J.J. Hardy
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 30, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
JJ Hardy is barely an improvement over Bartlett
and that makes the deal make even less sense.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
I completely disagree with that
Hardy hit for a .313 wOBA in the AL Central, which isn’t completely far off from Reyes’ .329
And to add to that Hardy is a stellar defensive shortstop, and had a 2.4 WAR in 2010.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 30, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not that off from Reyes's .329
which is the worst line Reyes’s has put up in the last 4 years…so being 15+ points off from the worst case scenario for our current short stop is kind of a big difference.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Reyes is clearly better than his .329 wOBA
That number is dragged down significantly by the first month of the season when he was coming off of the thyroid issue which kept him idle for the entire month of march.
While this is true
The loss in WAR between Hardy and Reyes (should reyes post 4.0 lets say and Hardy 2.5) would be very much mitigated by Garza and Shields’ performance. Plus Hardy is less likely to demand a binding multimillion dollar 4 year extension, which I think is a really bad idea.
Outside of this hypothetical, I very much want Reyes on the team but I don’t want the Mets entering into a ridiculous extension with him that will tie them down even if he does continue to struggle with injury or lose speed
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 31, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, 2.9 WAR/600 PAs was almost exactly what Reyes was worth this year,
and last year, of course, he played very little. In other words, at this point, in terms of production, Bartlett is extremely comparable to Reyes. Only Bartlett is healther, cheaper, and definitely has a different career arc. At the same time, as he goes into his third arb year, there’s no reason the Mets should be acquiring his kind of player.
I’m optimistic that Alderson won’t have on rose-colored glasses when it comes to a Reyes extension. The last thing the Mets need is one more long term contract that ties the team to an expensive player whose best years are behind him, particularly one that will soon be entering the standard decline-phase years . I’d love to see Reyes stay with the Mets, but he hasn’t even averaged TWO wins over the last two seasons, and he seems to be troubled by injuries that may be becoming chronic, which is the last thing you want from a player you’re thinking of signing to a long-term deal. The trajectory on his defensive numbers is also extremely troubling, on the order of 12, 2, -1, -5 over the last four years. When he can’t handle short there’s nowhere on the defensive spectrum for him to go.
Watching him play and looking at his numbers have convinced me the Mets would be absolute fools to sign Reyes to something like 5/65, a number that was being thrown around on another site. This is an interesting test for Alderson. We know that Jeff has no sense of who can play and who can’t, but I don’t think for a second that would keep him from pushing in one direction or another with regard to Reyes. It would also take guts for Alderson not only not to sign Reyes to an extension, but if Reyes and his agent seemed firm at something like 5/65, to actually deal him before the start of 2011. It’s going to be one of the more interesting dramas for the team.
2.9 WAR/600 is what Reyes was worth
Bartlett was worth .7 WAR
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
He's had one good year
in his entire career that was likely just an outlier. Why would we look at it when projecting his likely future performance when nothing else in his career has been in it’s vicinity?
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
He's had 5 out of 6 good years.
If there is anything that appears to be an outlier, It’s his 2010. His downward trending UZR is certainly concerning, but I really don’t know that it’s enough to assume that he’s all of a sudden become an abysmal shortstop.
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 31, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
No he had 5 years where he hovered around 2 WAR
and one good year.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Here's his year by year breakdown for those 5 years
2005 – 1.8 WAR in 252 PA’s
2006 – 3 WAR in 372 PA’s
2007 – 2.8 WAR in 570 PA’s
2008 – 1.8 WAR in 494 PA’s
2009 – 4.9 WAR in 567 PA’s
The only one of those years that is close to 2 WAR/600 PA’s is 2008. In all of the rest he was considerably better than that.
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 31, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Per 600 PAs
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 31, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Look, Reyes has his issues
But he’s still going to be the best option at shortstop for us for the next few years. I don’t think 5/65 would be that terrible of a deal for the Mets. He’d essentially have to be a 3-3.3 win player from ages 28-32 which shouldn’t be hard for him to do if he stays healthy. The only problem really is if he can stay healthy. Depending on how he plays next season, a 4 year $52 million with a club option for a fifth would be pretty perfect for the Mets.
eh I think 5 years is too long
I don’t really think there’s much reason to project 3ish win seasons for his post 30 years. Most long-term projections I’ve seen, btb had some up when they were doing their trade value thing, don’t project anything near that.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Fair enough
But whenever he’s healthy, he hits. I’m not really worried about his production at this point, I’m just not sure if he’ll be able to stay on the field.
nevermind I lied
I looked it up and the numbers were alot better than I imagined. They projected: WAR Years 1-5: 4.8, 4.4, 4.3, 3.9, 3.6.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Those can't be remotely reasonable projections for Reyes
given his last two years. No one projects to put up numbers like that, where EVERY SINGLE ONE of his next four years project to be better than the SUM of his most recent two years. It doesn’t work like that.
The sad part of all this is that if Reyes were healthy he’d have added another 20% of a HOF career to his resume in 2009 and 2010, but he wasn’t. The list of players who would have made the Hall of Fame if they had stayed healthy is significantly more than ten times as long as the list of guys who stayed healthy and made it.
There’s nothing at all unusual about Reyes’ career path. Having a couple of great seasons early in a player’s career, then struggling and generally never getting back to that level—often never getting close to that level again—is the norm. It’s not the exception.
I see no reason to think that.
In 2003, after he was called up midseason, Reyes missed a month with a sprained ankle, and in 2004 missed around two months after straining his hamstring, limiting him to . So, he was limited to 69 and 53 games, respectively. He then went on to play 150+ games in each of the next four seasons, while averaging 4.8 WAR over that span.
He’s now entered/entering into his prime. While he might not put up a 4.8 WAR in 2011, 4.4 WAR in 2012, and so on, I see no reason to think that it’s not likely that he won’t put up a enough production netting him a 3.5 to 4.5 WAR or so. He’s overcome similar injuries to his 2009/2010 war wounds to put up very good numbers. Why wouldn’t he now be able to do the same, especially when a lot of the time he missed over over the past two seasons were because of our own ineptness (him rehurting himself while rehabbing), or strange, freak things that don’t really have much of his ability to play going forward (the entire thyroid debacle, and all of the time he missed from Spring Training)?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 31, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
But has he really struggled?
He’s been good when healthy. Out side of the first month and a half when he was coming back from the thyroid thing, he had an OPS over .800.
struggled to stay healthy...but when he was Reyes played decent
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 6, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
This
exactly. It makes little to no sense for either team.
The Mets GM is Sandy Alderson: A Dynasty is Born
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
If, as in the description
the Mets non-tendered Bartlett and went after J.J. Hardy (I believe the Mets did something similar with Johnny Estrada a few yaers back), the Mets loss at shortstop isn’t that big, while the gain at pitcher is very big in contrast. As for the Rays, their loss in pitching value is small – Hellickson can likely replace Shields and another prospect or low-cost FA signing to replace Garza. They gain a huge improvement at shorstop, and can also reap top round draft picks for him. They unload two negative assets. They gain two young useful players, one of whom could be 100+ games at first base, and a solid prospect as well.
The Rays already have floods of pitching prospects, they have Z locked up long term, Desmond Jennings, Evan Longoria as a long term core with BJ Upton, John Jaso and Sean Rodriguez filling useful holes. I don’t think their interest lies in middling prospects for the sake of minor league depth. Duda and Evans would take special value to them because they lost Pena and Aybar has dropped off completely. Duda could potentially serve as a very good long-term replacement for Pena and Evans could also help at every corner, or platoon with Matt Joyce.
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 30, 2010 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions
But you have to take into account the potential that Reyes
becomes the Reyes of 06-08. Jose is only 27, which means there is certainly a shot that he can get back to that level.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Oct 30, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sure. He might, though he's not a favorite to do so.
And, so, mistermet, do you offer Reyes an extension this offseason and, if so, for how many dollars and how many years?
Personally I would explore an extension with him.
He’s just way too valuable to this offense to let him walk. I’d see if he’s willing to consider a 3 year deal, as that’d put his next walk season at around age 29-30. Maybe tack on some sort of option years at the end too that could bring it to 5 years or if he’s playing well towards the end, rip it up and make a new deal. But yes, I’d definitely bring him back…as I said, he’s way too valuable. We’ve seen what happens when he’s not in the lineup and I’m willing to bet on his health and subsequent recovery to 06-08 norms.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Oct 31, 2010 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm assuming we suck when he's not in the lineup
because we put awful hitters in the top spot, not necessarily because Reyes himself is vital. Not to mention the line up is thin to begin with.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Understandable
But the way I look at it is where are you going to get a shortstop in the short term who is better than Reyes? Ruben Tejada is the best in-house option at SS (and I can’t consider Havens an option because of his injuries and poor range at SS) and outside of the organization? Unless you can pry away a SS like a Tulowitzki, who’s signed to a long team friendly extension, you’re not going to find anybody who’s a true upgrade.
No offense to METSMETSMETS’ proposal but JJ Hardy sucks…I don’t want to be stuck with that at SS. He’s just way too inconsistent for my taste and though Reyes has had his injury issues, I know what he is. Hardy is such an enigma…if he gets back to his 07-08 numbers than great but those look more like the outliers to me. Maybe I’m wrong…maybe I give Jose too much leeway because he’s homegrown and I’ve seen him from his first big league at bat up to this point. At this point, though, I think his skill set is still too important and exciting to give up on.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Oct 31, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
And Hardy has just as many injury issues as Jose does.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
I like the option years if you want to go as long as five years,
but if you’re betting on Reyes getting back to his HOF peak, I’m pretty sure you’re going to be disappointed. If you go through the player pages of HOFers at BaseballReference.com it’s very, very difficult to find a player who put up three five win seasons then had two severe off years, all by his late twenties, who ever got back to his peak and stayed there for any length of time. I know you’re not specifically predicting a HOF career for Reyes, but if he can get back to his 2006-2008 form he’s going to get pretty close.
they weren't "off years" though
in the sense that he played a lot and didn’t hit. He’s not Edgardo Alfonzo. He was hurt. And when he came back from his injury, he actually hit pretty well this year.
Obviously the injury concerns are a very legitimate concern, but if he’s healthy I see no reason at all he doesn’t hit the way he did prior to 2009. Of course, he might lose some speed and hit a few less triples and steal less bases, which would make him less valuable than he was from ‘06-’08, but he’d still be one of the better SS’s in baseball.
2009 Did Not Happen
I don't see why either team would do this.
The Rays are giving up a very good/young/cheap pitcher in Garza, a solid young/cheap/ pitcher in Shields, and an above average shortstop and and average catcher. If they want to keep payroll down, assuming Reyes’ contract and salary demands wouldn’t make sense. Nick Evans and Sean Ratliff (?) aren’t even worth mentioning in this deal.
The Mets on the other hand could find servicable starters on the FA market, and giving up Reyes creates a huge hole on the team; we would have to replace him with a very good defensive shortstop AND a leadoff man/sparkplug for the lineup. The pitching is nice, but what Reyes does for us is hard to find elsewhere. And I don’t see why the Rays of all teams would help us get younger/cheaper.
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
yeah the rays basically get one year of Reyes
without even cutting much payroll for that one year, and some fringy prospect guys for their two best trade assets.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
I'd say Shields is decidedly better than Garza
Better FIP/xFIP, better K/9. Shields’ numbers are obscured by some bad luck with BABIP and some extra fly balls leaving the park, but at least that second one should improve moving to Citi and the NL.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Oct 30, 2010 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I only saw Shields 3 or 4 times this year
He got hurt a lot throwing a fastball without a lot of movement up in the zone. That’ll hurt you in the NL and the AL. Citi would help though.
This is actually horrible for both sides
Ive seen Draysbay fans interested in a Shields/Gara swap with Ike Davis as the centerpiece …he’s about the only thing the rays would want at this point with their $$$ situation.
Shields/Davis would be something to consider
We have plenty of guys that should be at least adequate enough at first to consider it.
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 30, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
While an Ike/Shields deal wouldn't be a very popular trade
it makes a lot of sense actually (especially if we could also squeeze Shoppach or Bartlett from Tampa too). Shields becomes our #2 and Duda takes over 1B. Tampa gets a young, cheep 1B who profiles as something similar to Pena (just with less power but higher AVG and fewer K’s).
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
Yeah, I'd much rather keep Davis and just go for
Hiroki Kuroda. He’s not a sexy name and he’s a bit older, but this is a guy who put up a 4.2 WAR season and a 3.57 xFIP-his best in the majors thus far. I’d assume he won’t cost all that much in terms of years and money, so on a 2 year deal I think he’d be an outstanding addition to the back end of the rotation.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Oct 31, 2010 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Kuroda is 7 years older.
That’s more than “a bit”.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
Shields is also a pitcher nearing 30
vs a 24 year old first basemen. It’s likely that Shields has peaked.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Kuroda is a pretty sexy name.
But, that aside, in the best case scenario, we sign Kuroda, and trade for Shields, because our payroll is like $145-155 million.
Kuroda probably will cost something between $10-$15 million. He’s certainly earned it, with his stats.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 1, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
He's been remarkably consistent in his oldness
When he debuted, he was old, and put up some pretty good numbers. He’s continued to do so since then, and hasn’t shown any massive cliffs he’s dropped off of (at least, as I remember when I looked at his stats like yesterday or the day before). Piniero, he had that one good year in St. Louis, but had been ‘eh’, at best, for the previous couple of years. Plus, outside of Lee, Kuroda is probably the next best FA available, or, at the very least, among the cream of the crop in the middling tier guys available.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 1, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
this
you’d be trading 5 years of Ike for really only 1-2 cheap years of Shields.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Here's a problem with the calculus of this trade:
Reyes will likely demand a pretty heft extension
The Mets do not operate on a fixed budget. They try to, but they always go over budget. All that Alderson has to do is go to the Wilpons and say, “we should trade Reyes so that we can stay competitive within our budget.” I’ll bet you dollars to doughnuts that the Wilpons will raise the budget to fit Reyes’ contract extension in. That is the magic of SNY money.
The Mets GM is Sandy Alderson: A Dynasty is Born
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
The Rays are trading Garza and/or Shields because
they do not believe that they can afford either or both, correct? With Reyes making $11 million dollars in 2011, that’s more than Garza ($3.3 million) and Shields ($4.25 million) will be making, combined. That $3.45 differential is more than Garza is making in the entire year.
That aside, I think that such a deal would be weakening the Devil Rays too much for them to consider such a trade.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 30, 2010 7:32 PM EDT reply actions
Garza will be going into his second arb year
he’ll likely double his salary from this year.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
I don't know about that (doubling his salary)
The Devil Rays will give him a raise, definitley, and do their best to avoid having the case go to an arbitration hearing, but Garza was less impressive in 2010 than he was in 2009 (3.2 WAR, as compared to a 1.8 WAR in 2010). Tampa is actually progressive like that, and will likely take that into account when giving him his money. His FIP and xFIP were both higher, he struck out almost two fewer batters per nine while throwing just about the same amount of innings, and a bunch of quibbles like that. He’ll probably get around $5 million or so, but I can’t realistically see him making $6.6 or thereabouts.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 31, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but WAR/FIP/xFIP have nothing to do with arbitration
he had a sub 4 ERA and 15 wins. He’s going to easily double his salary if they go to arbitration, and there’s no reason for him to accept less.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
just to put that in perspective
If Garza gets $5 million that’s what we paid John Maine last yr and Jeff Francouer. Sorry gotta point that out.
yeah but we didn't trade major league players for them
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
That's a very good point.
I really can’t refute that.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 1, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I know this is just an exploratory topic to generate discussion, not a "serious business" trade proposal.
Though if DRaysBay heard about it, it would be quickly dismissed (even when you admitted it’s a ridiculous trade).
Hop onto fangraphs...
Shields BABIP is an uncharacteristically high .354 and his home runs/9 are also above his career norms. I’d guess that this is the outlier and that he rebounds closer to 07/08 levels. He had a huge jump in his K/9, too and it’s always good to see a pitcher start to miss more bats. Garza lags in this category as his K/9 went down by two.
I’d say Shields is the better buy here, especially moving to Citi where some of those fly balls won’t go over the wall.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 2, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
And when Shields is pitching on the road?
The Mets GM is Sandy Alderson: A Dynasty is Born
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
he won't be worse than the rest of the mets pitchers on the road
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
yeah but is has been 2 years since
a 1 year bad turn I can take but 2, and he got worse. he seemed to find some control in 08 compared to 07 so maybe he is too fat in the strike zone now and getting hit. maybe he was better when he was throwing a little off the plate and walking a few more, which sounds crazy to me, but just looking a the numbers.
he may be worth a look in a trade that doesn’t include too many quality guys.
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Nov 3, 2010 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Tampa can't afford Beltran at full, and even if we paid like $10 million of his contract,
they’d be paying $8 million dollars, which is like 1/10th their entire payroll, for a CF who is a question-mark for the time being.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 2, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
what if we paid the whole thing
and got Upton back
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Not sure if you're serious, but either way
Upton just does not interest me at all. He’s got a ton of tools but just hasn’t come close to that outstanding 2007 season. I don’t want to say he’s lazy because that is the stereotypical perception, but it’s looking more and more like that could be the case.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 2, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the upside is worth the risk
if he doesn’t work out you can just non tender him, and what has it cost? 1 year of a player likely on his way out anyway?
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Where do you play him, though?
You already have Pagan in CF.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 2, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
He's an oustanding defensive OF with great tools,
The only concern is his K rates and the fact that he can go on a cold streak at times. His problem is the fact that he doesn’t get hot hitting streaks a lot, B.J can be an absolute monster one day, and a nightmare at the plate the next.
who would of thought we would be arguably the greatest of all time
around here we developed such a sound down here
but duplicate it off the steel it can only be found here
ahhh no. they won't increase payroll, that's why they're thinking
of trading Shields and or Garza.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 6, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm going to make more of these
over time in the off-season
I find these discussions fascinating
I'll rep DRB for a bit here,
I definitely don’t think the Rays are going to move both Shields and Garza this year, odds are that they are only moving one to make room for Hellickson (who, has gotten as far as he can in the minors). If the Rays do move Garza, i think they are (A)looking for legit prospects, preferably a catcher or a 1B, who could take over a few years down the road or (B) an immediate starter on the team who could probably start at above positions. I do think that Ike Davis is realistically what Garza is going to get for them. Bartlett is definitely a must go on top of the Rays lists (his defense is slipping), and Kelly is one of those Meh Guys, who you know you can’t get much for.
Additionally, as much as i like Reyes, i don’t think the Rays are in immediate position to make a playoff push in 2011. They will contend, but i have a feeling that the playoffs are out of their grasp.
who would of thought we would be arguably the greatest of all time
around here we developed such a sound down here
but duplicate it off the steel it can only be found here
Mets aren't going to part with Davis
for Garza. Especially under the Alderson administration. Garza cannot yield that type of return from any team. Davis has a lot more controllable years than Garza, and put up similar WAR numbers this year.
If the Rays seek a catching prospect they may find a match in the Nationals, but I feel as though Zack Greinke and Javier Vazquez will be higher priority for the Nats than Garza.
by METSMETSMETS on Nov 3, 2010 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I realize that,
That’s what the Rays realistically hope for though.
who would of thought we would be arguably the greatest of all time
around here we developed such a sound down here
but duplicate it off the steel it can only be found here
That may be what they hope for
But Davis, I think, is considerably more valuable to a team than Garza. By WAR, Davis’ rookie campaign was more valuable than any season Garza has had in the majors. And unlike Garza, Davis is a better bet to improve over the next few years.
If Ike Davis wasn't traded for Cliff Lee
he won’t be traded for Matt Garza/Shields either. I realize they’re all completely different pitchers…just being Captain Obvious and pointing that out. that said, I’d much rather keep Ike and wait for either pitcher to hit free agency and then sign them.
this way the Mets will have BOTH Ike and either Shielders or Garza. simple, right?
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Well, there's also the matter that
the team had no business trading for Cliff Lee last season. I don’t really see how that situation has very much to do with this one. Two different contexts.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 6, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
not really related, but I thought I'd just throw it out there
Ike should be relatively untouchable anyhow.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Honestly, I don't think there's anyone on the team who I'd label untouchable,
except for David and Jose. Maybe Dickey, because I don’t want anyone else touching my Dickey. Unless they’re pretty. Then, maybe. But…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 7, 2010 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
If you see the FanPost about FA 1Bs who are available that was just posted.
Yeah, losing Ike would be really bad.
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
by MookieTheCat on Nov 7, 2010 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
The whole reason why Garza and Shields are attactive
is because they’re under team control for a while. Lee was going to be a half a season rental.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
geh. I really should check my spelling next time.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
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