General Managing and What's Really the Most Important Aspect of that Job.

by garik16 on Oct 5, 2010 1:47 PM EDT

I’m not excusing the Guillen signing, or the Meche arm-shredding, or even the Yuni trade. What I’m saying is that when Moore blunders, as Royals fans we forget that all GMs make blunders. GMs can make mistakes – even horrendous mistakes – and still lead their team to the playoffs. As Royals fans, it’s been so long since we’ve seen a playoff team that we’ve lost all perspective of what it takes to build one. We’ve grown into this mindset that if our GM isn’t perfect, if he ever gets the short end of a trade, or if he ever spends millions of dollars on a free-agent flop, then we’re doomed.

As Brian Sabean has shown this year, we’re not doomed. So long as the system churns out talent.

Rany Jazayerli, How I learned to Stop Worrying and Love the GM

It's easy to talk about the bad Free Agent Moves the Mets have made. As a big market team (supposedly), we expect the team to be spending on prime Free Agents, so as to address needs in the offseason. When we think of Minaya and his tenure, we think of the Oli Perez signing, the Jason Bay signing, the J.J. Putz trade, etc. We talk about whether he had true autonomy in his transactions. And these are things in which it's easy to blame the General Manager, as they so obviously bear his mark.

But this isn't the entirety of the GM's Job; in fact, as Rany argues in the quote above, it's probably not even the most important part of the General Manager's Job. That job is player development; the drafting (or signing of international players) and development of players in one's minor league system. It is in THIS area that Omar Minaya has been the greatest failure and why the Mets have been unable to consistently succeed over his tenure.

Minaya took over in 2005 and immediately had a high first round draft pick. The Results of that draft haven't been terrible, but not great:
1st Round (#9): Mike Pelfrey (Major League Starter)
2nd Round: None (Beltran, Pedro signings)
3rd Round: None (Beltran, Pedro)
4th Round: Hector Pellot (Bust)
5th Round: Drew Butera (Backup Catcher traded to Twins for Luis Castillo)
6th Round: Greg Cain (Bust)
7th Round: Jon Niese (Major League Starter)
-------Relevant Other Picks-------
9th Round: Bobby Parnell
13th Round: Josh Thole

As you can see, this draft managed to acquire 2 members of the current starting rotation, both of whom are at least decent (and would be starters on other teams), a quality reliever and what looks to be a potentially decent catcher. There are no stars here, which is sad for a #9 pick, but it's not a bad haul when we didn't have a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

Meanwhile, on the international front, Fernando Martinez was signed by the Mets. While he has certainly not been the star we thought he was, he didn't cost us anything and at least has ranked a good prospect until this year. Overall, Minaya got off to a solid start on building the future as he worked in the short term with the Beltran and Pedro signings.

2006 Draft:
1st Round: None (Billy Wagner)
2nd Round: Kevin Mulvey (Traded for Johan Santana)
3rd Round: Joe Smith (Sidearm Reliever made the Big Club)
4th Round: John Holdzkomp (Bust)
5th Round: Stephen Holmes (Bust or didn't sign, I can't tell)
6th Round: Scott Schafer (Bust or didn't sign)
--------------------------Other Relevant Picks---------
13th Round: Daniel Murphy
16th Round: Tobi Stoner

Needless to say, this draft sucks. The team started a bad trend of signing Type A Free Agent RELIEVERS (Wagner) leaving them without a first round pick, which hurt. Mulvey wasn't a bad pick (Being traded for Johan means we can't complain there) and Joe Smith was okay, but really only D-Murph might be a decent Major Leaguer for the Mets from here on out.

I think it's this year that the Mets signed Ruben Tejada, but I may be wrong.

2007 Draft:
1st Round: None (Moises Alou)
Compensation Round: Eddie Kunz (Bust) and Nathan Vineyard (Bust, quit baseball after a year)
2nd Round: Scott Moviel (eh, prospect), Brent Rustich (eh, prospect)
3rd Round: Eric Niesen (Eh)
----------------------------Other Relevant Picks-----------------------------
6th Round: Zach Lutz (okay prospect)
8th Round: Lucas Duda (okay)
21st Round: Dillon Gee (Maybe a 5th Starter, okay)

Once again a draft that stinks. Moises Alou robbed the Mets of a first round pick (yep, seriously). However, the Mets had two compensation round picks due to Roberto Hernandez and Chad Bradford signing elsewhere (Pittsburgh and Baltimore Respectively iirc). And the Mets badly whiffed, taking a clear reliever (Kunz) with the first of these. Vineyard wasn't a highly rated prospect either, but we can't blame the Mets for his odd disappearance from baseball. Even so, none of the remaining guys really have turned out into anything special. Once again, the Mets whiffed on a draft, two in a row here.

International Signings: The Mets sometime around here sign both Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte.

2008 Draft:

1st Round: Ike Davis (Compensation for losing Tom Glavine), Reese Havens
Compensation Round: Brad Holt (okay he's collapsed it seems, but he showed great talent for a bit)
2nd Round: Javier Rodriguez (Okay prospect, still only 20)
3rd Round: Kirk Nieuwenheis
etc.

I'm not going to go farther here. The 2007 draft, unlike the previous two, shows some promise in its first two picks...of course, the team didn't have first rounders either of the past 2 years. Obviously, you'll recall that we didn't have a first round pick in 2009, because the Mets signed K-Rod.

The point is this: A General Manager, led by his scouts and talent evaluators, has a job of maintaining his farm system and filling it with talent. Omar Minaya has failed at that. He's given away first round picks willy nilly (Alou, Wagner, K-Rod) and not compensated for this with good drafting in other rounds. This is not an easy task to do, by no means...the baseball draft can essentially be a crap shoot (see Dillon Gee making it out of the 21st round). That said, it's important to remember that IF Minaya Had reaped the same amount of talent as he did in 05 in the 06 and 07 drafts, this team would've had a more solid foundation and been able to be a playoff team on good footing for the future.

Whoever our next GM is needs to be more picky with his free agent acquisitions to be sure. But success is built from within (and before you bring up the New York Yankees, I'll refer you to AL MVP-Candidate Robinson Cano). The Mets, under Omar Minaya, have been absolutely miserable at this (not the worst, amazingly...look at the White Sox system for example). And that's why he's losing his job. His replacement MUST learn from this.

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Comments

Here's the Problem

Well, it’s two fold.

(A) By this criteria, Ned Coletti is an awesome GM, when really it is Logan White doing all the work. (Most of the nicer Omar picks were late round guys, which is more a credit to the scouting department). Obviously, you should get points for putting together and listening to, a good scouting department, but I don’t think it necessarily reflects on the skills of the GM.

(B) Yes, you should always try to develop cost-controlled players that can help you at the major league level, but if you are going to be a GM in NYC you have to be able to leverage the obvious economic benefits of playing in the largest market in the country, which means accurately valuing free agent players and being willing to spend more for marginal wins where you can.

At a certain point you get diminishing returns from just going overslot for everybody (looking at bust rates for prospects), so you have to be able to smartly fill out a team with available free agent talent, and sign superstars because you have the money to do so.

Omar was a mixed bag here, obviously. The Beltran contract and Wright extensions worked out well, the Pedro, Bay and Ollie contracts, not so much.

The funny thing is Omar would be better suited to a team like KC, as it plays to his strengths, he is a good talent evaluator and good at picking up guys off the scrap heap that turn out to contribute. He would have less money to spend there, so you curb his need to give out contracts a year too long and a bit too expensive.

by Jeffrey Paternostro on Oct 5, 2010 2:00 PM EDT reply actions

“(A) By this criteria, Ned Coletti is an awesome GM, when really it is Logan White doing all the work. (Most of the nicer Omar picks were late round guys, which is more a credit to the scouting department). Obviously, you should get points for putting together and listening to, a good scouting department, but I don’t think it necessarily reflects on the skills of the GM.”

Of course you get lots of credit for putting together a good scouting department and listening to them. That said, this wasn’t the case here. A clear reliever should NEVER be your first round choice (2007) and the decision to torpedo first round picks for high-priced closers was stupid. One Edge the Yankees have with Mariano is that they NEVER spend on a Type A Free Agent Reliever. Now I’m not saying you can get Mariano-like performance from anyone in house, but it would’ve been smarter to try and solve the closer issue in house and get underrated starters to serve as relievers.

by garik16 on Oct 5, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Really good post...

And I like this point as well. A GM in my mind should actually get more credit for putting together a great scouting department and listening to them than for being a superstar talent evaluator himself. Delegation is an integral part of any job like this.

by MookieTheCat on Oct 5, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

This actually looks like pretty good drafting to me

In 4 years Minaya picked up 3 starters (Pelfrey, Niese, Gee), a starting 1B (Davis), a solid utilityman (Murphy), a borderline starting catcher (Thole), a solid RP (Parnell), and a handful of solid prospects (Martinez, Nieuwenheis, Havens, Rodriguez). The real issue is management of assets, namely, early picks. He hasn’t recognized their value (and the much lesser value of guys like Alou and Wagner).

by yellomellojello on Oct 5, 2010 3:30 PM EDT reply actions

"Good Drafting" is what you call it when you look at everything completely optimistically

“In 4 years Minaya picked up 3 starters (Pelfrey, Niese, Gee)”
Most of us would give him credit for Pelf and Niese as starters. Gee is a guy whose ceiling has been said for most people to be a 5th starter…essentially replacement level. useful maybe. Not particularly helpful to a team in winning though. (As a 21st round pick, it’s a credit to Gee, and it’s not a bad thing that’s all he is for the Mets. But still…don’t compare him to the other two).
Meanwhile, neither Pelf nor Niese are likely to be #1 or #2 starters. Is it easy to acquire such pitching prospects? No. But in 4 drafts, you hope for one guy like that to materialize (the closest is Mejia…who’s an international signee and they’ve screwed up his development)

“a solid utilityman (Murphy), a borderline starting catcher (Thole), a solid RP (Parnell), and a handful of solid prospects (Martinez, Nieuwenheis, Havens, Rodriguez)”

Utilitymen are not something you hope for in the draft. Thole and Parnell are to his credit (all from the same 05 draft btw). The Value of Martinez, Nieu, Havens, and Rodriguez atm doesn’t project to be any of them more than average (Havens is the exception here, if he could stay healthy).

In other words, these are guys who are merely average prospects. There hasn’t been a single marquis prospect in Omar’s drafting.

And yes, you’re correct in how he hasn’t correctly figured out the value of early picks…but his other picks do not make up for this. He had one good draft (05), two bad ones (06-07), and one that could potentially turn out good if the other guys aside from Davis ever pan out (not guarenteed). And 09’s draft looks like a waste as well.

by garik16 on Oct 5, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Lemme ask you something...

When you say “utilitymen are not something you hope for in the draft” do you mean the top rounds or overall? With the very low rates of guys in lower rounds who ever see a MLB game, wouldn’t picking up some benchwarmers in those rounds be a good thing, or is some other factor at play, such as time and expense put into their development? I’m not even talking about Gee in the 21st, but let’s say you find a Murphy-type in the 30th round or something like that.

by MookieTheCat on Oct 5, 2010 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions

This has to be compared to other teams

lets take a look at the Phillies:

05
1st round: none
2nd round: Mike Costanzo (bust)
3rd round: Matt Maloney (traded for Kyle Lohse in 07)
4th round: Mike Durant (bust)
5th round: Brett Harker (bust)

Relevant others:
10th round: Josh Outman (traded for Blanton in 08)

2006
1st round (18): Kyle Drabek (traded for Halladay)
1st round (37): Adrian Cardenas (traded for Blanton)
2nd round: Andrew Carpenter (eh, given C grade by John Sickels before the year)
3rd round: Jason Donald (traded for Lee)
4th round: D’Arby Myers (bust)
5th round: Quintin Berry (bust)

Relevant others:
20th round: Domonic Brown (very good prospect, B+ from Sickels)

07
1st round (19): Joe Savery (bust)
1st round (37): Travis D’Arnaud (traded for Halladay)
2nd round: Travis Mattair (bust)
3rd round: Brandon Workman (didn’t sign)
3rd round: Matt Spencer (traded for Blanton)
4th round: Tyler Mach (not sure, either didn’t sign or bust)
5th round: Michael Taylor (traded for Halladay)

Relevant Others:
6th round: Matt Rizzotti (eh, not rated by Sickels before season. maybe a mediocre 1B)

08
1st round (24): Anthony Hewitt (bust)
1st round (34): Zach Collier (grade C from Sickels, out all year. 99% bust)
2nd round: Anthony Gose (traded for Oswalt)
2nd round: Jason Knapp (traded for Lee)
3rd round: Vance Worley (not graded, could be decent SP)
3rd round: Jonathan Pettibone (not graded, hasn’t shown much)
4th round: Trevor May (graded B-; good at A, 61 BB in 70 IP at A+)
5th round: Jeremy Hamilton (not graded, probably bust)

Relevant others:
8th round: Julio Rodriguez (not graded, RP doing well at lower levels)
14th round: Michael Schwimer (could be decent RP)
38th round: Jarred Cosart (C+, doing solid before going down for the year

So, we have 05 being totally worthless, 06 getting one top prospect and trade bait of solid quality, 07 getting pretty much nothing except trade bait of mediocre quality, and 08 picking up 3-4 potentially solid RP and a potentially solid SP, but too far away to really tell. This with one more 2nd rounder and three more 3rd rounders. They really got just 1 good hitting prospect from 4 drafts. Granted, Brown is an excellent prospect, but that’s about it from 4 years.

I can’t find information on international signings, but from a quick glance, this doesn’t seem substantially better than Omar’s drafting, if at all.

by yellomellojello on Oct 6, 2010 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Uh oh....We've got a draft off!

by MookieTheCat on Oct 6, 2010 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions

but no stars

you have to find a diamond from time to time

by jdon on Oct 6, 2010 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Harder to find those without first-rounders.

Which is just more damning.

May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 6, 2010 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually Omar didn't hire his scouting director until after we drafted

Pelfrey, Niese, Parnell and Thole. That draft was probably run by a holdover and was the best in a long time. Rudy Terrasas, brought here by Omar from Texas in Oct 2005, either by belief or by instruction drafts too many college sr’s. Probably due to them “being out of options baseball wise” and therefore cheaper to sign as well as possibly being able to get up here a little bit quicker and smooth out the top heavy payroll. Using the draft to acquire the best possible talent has not been in the playbook since the early 80’s.

by t agee on Oct 11, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

This is the main reasons I like Byrnes

The amount of above average talent he had come through that Arizona system speaks for itself.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.

by Ogre39666 on Oct 5, 2010 9:24 PM EDT reply actions

this was a good post but I think it's fair to say

that most drafts are hits and or misses.

But the main point here was not to blow it on aging Type A stars (whom will only be productive for several years) and not to sign Type A relievers—or draft them.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Oct 6, 2010 9:59 AM EDT reply actions

Good post, needs more

It’s impossible to evaluate the goodness/badness of these drafts without comparisons to other teams or some other frame of reference. It’s a bit superficial, but has anyone calculated what % of players in each slot see significant MLB playing time, or win starting jobs, etc., maybe over the past 10 years? One could in theory, I suppose, calculate the average career WAR of a player coming out of each slot in a particular draft. If your player accrued more wins than the average X round player that year, it’s some indication that you drafted well.

by Pack Bringley on Oct 6, 2010 7:57 PM EDT reply actions

I vote for you!

Because I’m lazy :)

by MookieTheCat on Oct 6, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure

if this is what you’re looking for, but there are some studies that might help answer your question:
Valuing the Draft Part I & Part II by Victor Wang of the Hardball Times
Prospects or Draft Picks by Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Boxscore

The sun is up & Kim Ng should be Mets GM.

by Brian. on Oct 7, 2010 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions