Comparing Ike Davis' First Season

by Chris McShane on Oct 6, 2010 12:17 PM EDT

One of the bright spots in the disappointing 2010 Mets season was the emergence of several young players who showed they should be able to contribute at the major league level. Ike Davis was one of those players, and he became a fan favorite quickly after he was called up to replace Mike Jacobs, who had unbelievably been the starting first baseman on Opening Day. He could hit tape-measure home runs, he played very good defense at first base, and he was a homegrown player.

Ike finished the season batting .264/.351/.440 for an OPS of .791 and OPS+ of 115. Amongst qualified first basemen in 2010, Davis' OPS was 13th. I thought it'd be interesting to compare Ike's first full-season to those of the 2010 OPS leaders at first base, and they're in that order from left to right. Here it is, with 560 PA being the arbitrary minimum for a full-season.

Clearly, Ike's season comes in at the lowest in the group, but that shouldn't be alarming. Most of the names on the graph are legitimate slugging first basemen on a yearly basis, and when it comes to the player's age during their first season, Ike is pretty much right in the middle. A quick breakdown of the age of these players:

21: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera
22: Adam Dunn, Prince Fielder
23: Paul Konerko, Billy Butler, Mark Teixeira, Ike Davis
24: Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Daric Barton
26: Aubrey Huff, Ryan Howard

In short, not all players develop at the same rate, so while Pujols and Cabrera were mashing the ball just as they were reaching legal drinking age, five of these first basemen didn't get a full season under their belt until they were older than Ike. To be fair, Ryan Howard was stuck behind Jim Thome, who is still mashing the ball, in Philadelphia.

Both in number and age, Ike Davis' year comes closest to that of Mark Teixeira. And although the gap is larger, it's not too far off from those of Prince Fielder and Billy Butler. Daric Barton had a near identical year, but he was also a rookie in 2010 whose development will unfold in the coming years.

Ike Davis may not have torn the cover off the ball in the way some of his peers did in their first seasons, but he did have a very good year. With modest improvement in the next season or two, he could certainly find a spot in the top 10 of first basemen OPS, a real asset for the Mets when combined with his excellent defense.

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Comments

Not sure how you determined "first full season"

but Barton played 140 games and had 523 PA’s with a .674 OPS two years ago, so that should probably count instead of this season. Also, you seem to have used Howard’s OPS from 2006, which I guess was his first “full” year, but he had already won rookie of the year in ’05, so I would probably have used that instead, when he had a still fantastic .921 OPS.

Davis’ OPS doesn’t land anywhere close to some of these guys, but it should be noted that his .351 OBP is actually pretty competitive with a bunch of them. It’s higher than Fielder (.347), Teixeira (.331), Barton (.327), Butler (.324), and way higher than Huff’s .288. It’s also very close to Konerko’s .352, and Howard’s .354. Also, Carlos Delgado posted a .353 OBP as a 24 year old in his first full season.

Davis’ SLG is on the low end of these guys, but considering his home ballpark, maybe not as bad as it looks at first glance. Citi Field finished 27th in the league this year in suppressing both HR’s and Doubles, so Ike had no help in those department. Davis did hit more HR’s on the road than at home, though he also hit a few more doubles at home than on the road. Still, considering players generally hit better at home than on the road no matter what, he probably would have ended up with pretty significantly better power numbers had he played 81 games in the Bronx instead of Queens.

Davis might never really be a prototypical, 40-HR slugger, but how’s this for a nice comparison:

Davis, 23: .264/.351/.440/ .791, 115 OPS+
Player, 22: .256/.353/.438/.791, 115 OPS+

Almost identical numbers. That 22 year old player was John Olerud (in his 2nd full year, he was actually slightly better as a rookie. Still, though.)

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Oct 6, 2010 12:17 PM EDT reply actions

I'd also compare him to

Keith Hernandez and Mark Grace. All similar rookie OPSes.

by Sam Page on Oct 6, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

To me, he's going to be a LaRoche

With that hitch in his swing, he’s never going to hit for much average, but will probably be a 25-30 HR guy, with an avg. always in the .260 to .280 range and a decent OBP. Essentially a slightly above average first basemen.

by David G on Oct 6, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I think LaRoche

is closest for the bat. If the defense is for real then he is solidly above average overall at the position. But hell, him being Mark Teixeira would be nice..

If he cuts down on the Ks, he can be a true all-star. He gets hits to all fields. Maybe having a real hitting coach could help him cut down on his Ks.

by METSMETSMETS on Oct 6, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

It's a pleasant idea,

but it would be unusual for a guy with his track record to suddenly cut down on the Ks. When players do that it’s often at the sake of losing at least a little power, something that Davis just can’t afford to do

Chris, you’d be doing Davis a favor by comparing his OPS+ with that of other players. Offense is down around the leagues, so he’ll do better if you account for that. At any rate, Davis is a below average hitter for the position (why 560 PAs? Why not 500? Why OPS and not wOBA? Why across both leagues, when teams in the AL can hide good bats at the DH position and avoid sticking them at 1B, something which favors Davis for the sake of your comparison?

That said, with his hitting since August 15th or so Davis has earned the right to be inked into the lineup for a nice long stretch next season. With all the problems the team has, including the chance of getting nothing for the $108m they’ll be paying Bay and Santana from 2011 through 2013, given Davis’s salary there’s no point in looking to replace him unless the Padres offer Adrian Gonzalez for Luis Castillo.

by Jack Str on Oct 6, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm

I think below average hitter for the position isn’t a proper assessment.

I don’t think the PA was a significant deal, as it produced a list with some of the top 1st baseman in the game over the last 10 years. That right there is the point.

As the article quotes he was the 14th 1st baseman in OPS this past season which is in terms of looking at the numbers an “above average” offensive first baseman. We can argue semantics and call him an average hitter as he is more towards the median number than not, but below average isn’t proper at all.

Ike finished the last 100 AB of his rookie season with a .950+ OPS a 1:1 K:BB ratio as well has a .525 SLG%.

Small sample size? Of course! The point is that towards the end of the season he had made some real adjustments to his game, and the results were significant.

I think Davis is better than LaRoche but not an Impact bat like Mark Texiera. Some place in between though with Gold Glove level defense is more than 90% of the teams in the MLB can hope for.

2011 Overly Optimistic Projection:

.280/.380/.480/.860

by Bill from LI on Oct 7, 2010 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Unfortunately,

“As the article quotes he was the 14th 1st baseman in OPS this past season” is the result of the article slicing the data to favor Davis.

Also, a lot of people—as you do—mistake the median for the average.

In the following series, 4 is the median, 5 is the average:

10, 8, 4, 2, 1

If you take the trouble to compute the average for the 2010 season, Davis is a below average hitter for an NL 1Bman. He’s not terrible, by any means, and given how he was thrown into the position after injuries and predictable failures, he did remarkably well. But he’s still a weak hitter for a 1bman.

And, unless you think he’s a better fielder than Keith Hernandez in Hernandez’s prime, Davis is about a 2.5 win player (according to BBREF, fwiw).

What I object to is the idea that Davis is THE solution at 1b. He may be, eventually, but he’s far from ready to be anointed that just yet.

by Jack Str on Oct 7, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Isn't "average" a bit of a red herring here too?

If we all accept that no matter what Davis will never be Pujols (or other truly elite guys), and that there is a baseline below which someone will never be a ML 1B, then “average” may be skewed towards the upper-end of the spectrum. I like the median figure here because it shows that he is better than (whatever that means) x number of existing 1B and worse than y number. I agree with you that the jury is still out on Davis, but the argument about median v. mean seems to be a bit of a tangent to me, and each of “average” and “below average” hide the ball a bit.

by MookieTheCat on Oct 7, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Ike was 3.3 WAR in 2010

according to FanGraphs.

Sandy Alderson for GM!
R.A. Dickey for Governor!

by Russ on Oct 8, 2010 6:18 AM EDT up reply actions

John Olerud

.794 OPS his first season

Ike Davis, .791 OPS

Therefore Davis = Olerud.
I’m going to pretend this statement is true, because I want it to be.

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Oct 6, 2010 1:30 PM EDT reply actions

Get Ike a flapless batting helmet and throw away his cap

2011 Wishlist:
Bobby V, John Hart, Javy Vazquez, Chone Figgins, Gerald Laird, Randy Choate, Jesse Crain

by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 6, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't get your choice of comparison group here -- seems like wishful thinking

We’d all like Ike to be a major-league-regular or star-caliber hitter, but liking doesn’t make it so, and acquiring 1B-level hitting skills is not automatic among any but the most ungodly mashers. And he’s so clearly an outlier among this group that it’s pretty obvious it’s not the right group to compare him to. A real study of where he’s likely to end up would include a large group of AAA and AAAA-level hitters who managed to hack a decent-to-good major-league season at around his age and didn’t repeat the feat or at least didn’t develop enough to justify a major-league 1B job.

by anonymous on Oct 6, 2010 1:43 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think the point is to realistically project Ike Davis

and I think the list is intended to be a bit of wishful thinking. He didn’t pick out direct comps; he chose prominent first basemen and compared their first seasons with Ike’s. The biggest issue, I think, is that OPS doesn’t account for league or home park, so wRC+ might’ve been a better choice.

by Eric Simon on Oct 6, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

yes

That was my first thought here too. I would prefer to see how IKE measures up to those prominent first basemen when factoring in league and home park.

by DannyMetsGeek on Oct 6, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Ask and ye shall receive.

Here’s a quick look at those same seasons using wRC+, a stat that I admittedly was not familiar with when I woke up this morning.

Cabrera 133
Votto 127
Pujols 162
Konerko 120
Gonzalez 129
Dunn 129
Huff 137
Fielder 115
Howard 166
Butler 125
Teixeira 106
Barton 129
Davis 119

by Chris McShane on Oct 6, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Cabrera 133
Votto 127
Pujols 162
Konerko 120
Gonzalez 129
Dunn 129
Huff 137
Fielder 115
Howard 166
Butler 125
Teixeira 106
Barton 129
Davis 119

by Chris McShane on Oct 6, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I just put them in order

Howard 166
Pujols 162
Huff 137
Cabrera 133
Gonzalez 129
Dunn 129
Barton 129
Votto 127
Butler 125
Konerko 120
Davis 119
Teixeira 106
Fielder 115

by lstorie1971 on Oct 6, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

oops. 115>106

by lstorie1971 on Oct 6, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

well then

I mean, he’s no Pujols, but I’d take Tex or Prince Fielder or Konerko.

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Oct 6, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I see him as LaRoche-esque

but I hope for Teixeira-esque.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.

by Ogre39666 on Oct 6, 2010 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

I don't know how to see Ike because he was supposed to be in the minors this year

He could average .260/.300/.460 every year, or he could average .340/.440/.540 (about what he did this year in September and October) every year.

We should get a better idea by the end of next year.

Sandy Alderson for GM!
R.A. Dickey for Governor!

by Russ on Oct 6, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

.340/.440/.540 is un-possible, I tell ya.

The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Oct 6, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Probably

The truth likely will be somewhere between.

Sandy Alderson for GM!
R.A. Dickey for Governor!

by Russ on Oct 6, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I think we would all take .300/.400/.500,

although I would be very happy with the more possible .290/.390/.460 line that would essentially make him John Olerud.

by djg2111 on Oct 6, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Damn....

Davis must have been the guy that much criticized NYT article was talking about: look at that effort to make round numbers happen.

Actually, I would be happy with numbers a bit lower than yours, but yeah, why not swing for the fences (metaphor misused).

by MookieTheCat on Oct 6, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

You're right

my real guess is peak seasons at .286/.371/.459. My main point is that his upper projection would probably be Olerud, which we would all be happy with. I think it is actually reasonable to expect Olerud type production if we drop O’s two absurdly awesome campaigns where he hit over .350.

by djg2111 on Oct 6, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

For his profile, I'd imagine a lower average, lots of walks and moderate power.

Something along the lines of .270/.360/.460

The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Oct 6, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

somewhere in between

is pretty much every player in the league

mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)

by Gina on Oct 6, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Tejada and half of the position players are below that.

The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Oct 6, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

you're right

though Tejada did manage to break the .300 obp mark. Which I think is astonishing all things considered.

mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)

by Gina on Oct 6, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions

why is the OBP so low on the .260 example?

now way Ike has a .40 BB ISO (yeah i just made that stat up OBP-BA)

by Mike Clemente on Oct 6, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Davis is already a better fielding first baseman than most of the other guys have ever been or hope to be

Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.

by Bobby Baseball on Oct 6, 2010 3:47 PM EDT reply actions

What was the line on Davis' defense before 2010

…and is it reasonable to expect him to continue 2010’s defensive prowess?

"..."

by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Oct 6, 2010 3:57 PM EDT reply actions

I'm not sure what you mean by "line on Davis' defense"

but his fielding component of WAR (Fielding Runs Above Average based on UZR) is 9.2. That puts him only behind Daric Barton (12.1). He’s also #2 in UZR/150 (11.1), again only behind Barton (14.3), but well ahead of Adam LaRoche (4.9).

He’s always been regarded as a plus glove, so all signs point to yes; he is and will most likely continue to be a good defender. Will he be as good next season? Maybe, maybe not as URZ can fluctuate a good deal from year to year.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.

by Ogre39666 on Oct 6, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to diminish the other players accomplishments, but they didn’t have their rookie years during the “year of the pitcher” and many of them arrived during a questionable PED time period as well.

Its a great study though, and I’m interested to see how Davis continues his growth into next season.

by Fucilli5 on Oct 6, 2010 6:34 PM EDT reply actions

Good point...

I wonder how Ike’s performance normalizes out when league wide fluctuations are taken into account.

by MookieTheCat on Oct 6, 2010 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions

another will the thrill ?

i see ike as another will clark clark was always a 300 or better hitter and had some power but i think ike is clark with alot more power . but we hall see .

lohaus #54

by lohaus#54 on Oct 6, 2010 7:18 PM EDT reply actions

Survivor Bias warning

The best comparison sample would be all those 1B with similar first years. Where are they now? Looks like there have been a few that looked like Davis that went on to be great, but I’d really like to see the true cohort to get an idea.

by jadelane on Oct 7, 2010 3:51 PM EDT reply actions