Amazin' Avenue Book Club: Moneyball, Chapter Two

It will probably be in the trailer.

I mean, what’s wrong with gum or sunflower seeds? Those things are probably way better. Whatever.

I don’t know. The Royals, who currently have the best system in baseball, did it through drafting high-risk, high-reward high schoolers (John Lamb, Eric Hosmer, Mike Montgomery, etc.) and low-risk college players (Alex Gordon, Christian Colon).

However, they did the same thing with high-risk, high-reward college players in Luke Hochevar and Aaron Crow, and while the jury’s still out on Hochevar (he has been disappointing at best), Crow was a disaster last year.

I think they’re acutely aware that for every successful high HS pick like Zach Grienke, there’s at least 2 Colt Griffins.

1. In a way it did. I hate the “stats vs. scouts” with a passion, but I think Beane admitting that he never say Brown or Teahen play set off the “you gotta use YOUR EYEZ!!!” gang. I think a lot of people think of scouting as “Ned Coletti and his snakeskin boots” & the fact that Beane & DePodesta dismissed the scout’s views rubs them the wrong way & as a result, the “scout” portion of the stupid “stats vs. scouts” routinely make the claim that the “Moneyball philosophy” can’t succeed.

2. I would prefer taking the high-risk high-school player than the medium-risk college one. I think the potential for superstardom in the HS outweighs whatever value the college player. And in particular, a team like the Mets with their financial strengths, should always look into taking high-risk, high-reward types as they would provide more value if they turn out to be successful. I don’t think there should ever be a time where the Mets take like 6 straight college pitchers like they did in this past draft.

3. No, and in a way they shouldn’t be. They essentially followed the same process with Jeremy Brown as they did with Zito a few years earlier.

Everyone said we were nuts to take Zito with the ninth pick in the draft. And we knew everyone was gonna say that. One fucking month later it’s clear we kicked everyone’s ass. Nobody remembers that now. But understand, when we stop trying to figure out the perception of guys, we’ve done better.

4. No, & I think it’s gross.

5. Some of my favorite lines so far are:

“He’s got big thighs,”says the fat scout, thoughtfully munching another jumbo-sized cookie. “A big butt. He’s huge in the ass.”

We’re not selling jeans here.

We’re blending what we see but we aren’t allowing ourselves to be victimized by what we see.

6. I think the part where Beane throws his chair through the wall when Bonderman was taken by Grady Fuson would be perfect for the movie.

I thunk this chapter was 100% the spark plug that caused this book to be interpreted as an attack on scouts, and therefor led to the debate. It was totally scouts on side, DePo’s computer on the other, and Beane making the scouts look like foolish old dinosaurs. It was funny as hell, a powerful chapter, represented so much change, and also very, very antagonistic.

Yes. He would have become a proxy for the debate, would have been a huge cult hero (I would have a jersey) and the anti stat crowd would have been forced to notice.

getting laid (requires leaving the basement).

What are your favorite lines from Moneyball?

Lenny Dykstra’s “shit, I’ll stick him” after Billy Beane has to explain to Lenny who Steve Carlton is.

“Put a Milo on him.” That made me laugh hysterically the first time I read it.

I am all for personal liberty, BUT, chewing tobacco is awful stuff and I cringe when i see K-Rod and Ike chewing it out on the field. This stuff gives people cancer at the same rate as unfiltered cigarettes and mouth esophageal cancers at 500 times the rate of filtered cigarettes. Most dangerously, there is a doubling of Pancreatic cancer rate in people who only chew tobacco over those who smoke filtered cigarettes exclusively.

That is why it should be banned from MLB. Kids should not grow up thinking “Ike Davis is cool, he chews tobacco, therefore chewing tobacco must be cool too.” It is going to take an MLB star being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer to stamp it out of the game, that is unfortunate.

I’d like a hybrid approach. In the first 4-5 rounds, I’m more interested in the high risk/high reward types, provided there are no red flags. After that, its on case by case basis, but I’d still lean to towards high risk/high reward type players.

This preference is largely because the Mets are a large market franchise. The draft selections can be loaded by going over slot, and further reinforced with a high IFA budget. Most of these players won’t pan out, but by loading the system with high ceiling talent, many that do make it to the majors will lean closer to the WAR 5+ type than to the WAR 2 type.

There is also the issue of organizational need. If I were the Mets this year, two of my picks in the first five rounds would be catchers. I’t take a high risk/high reward high school catcher and a low risk/medium reward college catcher. Start the college catcher in Brooklyn and the high school catcher in Kingsport.

I’m also curious about how the development process can be improved to increase the likelihood that a prospect will make it. What resources are available to a big market team that might not be available to a small market team? If an organization is able to reduce the risk, then the decision process is altered.

until he wasn’t.

I find it interesting to look back at that draft and think how the Mets got Kazmir, a player the A’s wouldn’t touch because he was in high school and he later flamed out.

If you’re not working with a lot of money and are just trying to stay competitive, you probably have to lean more towards the low risk medium reward college players. If you’re a big money ballclub that can afford to make some mistakes and replace them with higher priced free agents, you probably lean a tad more in the other direction in the hope that you land a stud who puts you over the top.

It’s tough to answer that question in the context of a one-off choice. In a repeated game scenario, as others have pointed out, the strategy probably depends on where you are in the draft (as well as the payroll/ambition issue I mentioned).