Team Upgrade Ideas
by TomCarvel on Nov 20, 2010 4:15 PM EST
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So a few days back I posted on the idea of the Mets acquiring Justin Upton and was promptly dismissed as a special child as always. Aside from the fact that I don't think the DBacks are too serious about trading him. And i'm not sure how much the Mets would want to give away a package of prospects for him. However, provided those two don't come into play I think there is a way we could make it happen. My thinking of how to facilitate this move is by making a three team deal. Trade would be between Mets, Dbacks and Angles. The DBacks would move Upton to the Mets and Reynolds to the Angels. A lot to move for the Dbacks but they are getting a nice amount in return. The Angels might need Reynolds if they strike out on FA's since they have a big 3B hole. Then the Mets send a package of Mejia, Flores, Fernando, Holt and Lutz to the Dbacks. Maybe we include Evans in there as a substitution for one of the other guys. That is a potentially huge haul for the Dbacks. Everyone will criticize Fernando as being worth nothing but other clubs could see that he is still very young, 22, and was in the Majors well before most top prospects reach around 24. He still has all the potential with a strong bat, so as he matures he could rid the injury tag and really benefit from a change of scenery. The Mets are giving up a bunch of possible future stars but I think the trade would be worth it in the short term, and long term as we have other prospects to fill the holes; i.e. Kirk, Gee, Urbina, Carson, Duda and Harvey. Also we don't need Lutz, a promising 3B prospect, with Wright entrenched so Lutz becomes expendable. Then the Angels send Ervin Santana and Mike Napoli to the Mets in exchange for Reynolds. And since the Angles need a DH as well we could ship them Beltran. Then to complete the deal the Dbacks and Angels exchange some other lower prospects. What a huge blockbuster deal that would be. I think this trade would be beneficial for every team. Although the DBacks might not like the trade if they want more MLB ready players, which I believe they do. But lets pretend.
If this trade happened the Mets would be instant playoff contenders for the next few years. We would have an amazing core of young players with Reyes, Wright, Upton and Davis leading this club to many championships. Combine those four with talented players like Pagan, Napoli, Bay and say Murphy at 2B and that is a sick team. Look at the filthy lineup of Reyes, Upton, Wright, Bay, Davis, Pagan, Murphy, Napoli. The enitre lineup is amazing and deep but the 1-4 hitters are just a daunting combination. That would be the best lineup in the NL, no question. Add in our rotation at full strength when Johan returns, J. Santana, E. Santana, Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese. That is an awesome rotation and combined with that lineup the Mets are the best in the NL East. Now everyone can rip me for all my crazy ideas.
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why
would the angels ever trade ervin santana for mark reynolds
B/c
The Angles need offense and have a great top of the rotation with Weaver and Haren. They also have a nice stock of young arms in their system so it makes Santana somehwhat expendable. Their offense lacks power and adding Beltran and Reynolds solves that problem. Huge hole at DH and 3B solved.
Call me a pessimist
but I don’t think the Mets can contend in 2011. So the whole idea of trading away a bunch of prospects this offseason doesn’t appeal to me. Let’s be patient and wait till 2012, when ~$60m of contracts coming off the books then we can make splashes on the trade market (since the FA market in 2012 is extremely low on talent, except for 1B).
It’s always nice to dream of lineups like the one above though…
How about an Orange Monster at Citi Field for Bay?
by Mets-Suns-Texans on Nov 20, 2010 4:57 PM EST reply actions
I would call you a pessimist then, lol
Because I think that this is the best time to take advantage of a great situation if it occurs. 2011 should be a good year with the offense rally rebounding with a full year from Reyes and Bay. Add in an improved Wright and Davis and we have a nice offensive unit. We just need to add a piece in the offense and in the rotation and our chances of making the playoffs are very high. I think we should give away our prospects now if we get a very useful return. Mainly because the prospects arent going to be very useful for another few years and now is the time when we are going to have Bay, Wright and Reyes in their prime, which needs to be taken advantage of. Paitience till 2012 will not work because like you said there are no impactful FA’s to spend any money on. Why wait till 2012 to make a big trade when we can do it this year and prepare for the future a year earlier and make our team that much better.
Looking at it, this team could certainly compete but
I just don’t think it’s an absolute that after all these deals they will compete. They aren’t far off for sure, but dealing a ton of prospects just hurts us down the line. I’d much rather use this off season to make small moves and then make the radical changes next offseason. There will be so much money available then that they can really reshape the team into something different, not to mention the fact that we should have more prospects in the organization with a (hopefully) solid 2011 draft and IFA period and some of the young guys on the team like Thole, Davis, Niese, Parnell for instance will be a year further in their major league development and we’ll have a better idea of what they are. At this point there are too many question marks to make a huge deal like that.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 20, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
Somewhat agreed and understand
But I still feel it more prudent to try to take advantage of something now if it pays off. I feel that we don’t really need those prospects and like you said will restock with our draft this year. And then we will have our next crop of prospects ready to contribue in 2-5 years when some of our current guys will leave or be less effective. Kirk can be our next CF in 2 or 3 years and Duda can take over for Bay in 3 years, hoping that his option doesn’t vest.
I doubt there's a chance Duda's still an option to start by the time
Bay’s contract expires. In three years, Duda likely will either be traded or it will be determined that he’s not starting material. I doubt he’ll be sitting on the bench for three years to step in for Jason Bay. And by that time, it’d serve us better to have somebody like Wilmer Flores, for example, on the cusp of the majors. Don’t forget that because Duda’s on the big league roster, he’s on the clock meaning that his service time (and arbitration clock) are clicking, not to mention if he gets sent to the minors to start this season, they’ll be using an option year.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 20, 2010 6:44 PM EST up reply actions
I counted 6 really big "ifs" in this post.
Full year from Reyes. Full year from Bay (in this I expect also a “and does not suck” component). Improved Wright. Improved Davis. Quality piece added to rotation that works out. Quality piece added to lineup that works out. Your argument is, essentially, that if everything that could go right or go wrong goes right, then we have a decent shot at perhaps getting close to the playoffs, so we should give up lots of prospect just in case the New York Mets get super-lucky.
Let me repeat that: the New York Mets get super-lucky.
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
by MookieTheCat on Nov 20, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
hoping for the best from everybody
sounds like an Omar plan. I don’t see someone employing a 19 mil per DH. And I do not look at our farm system and think “future stars.” Sorry.
Where is Thole in all of this?
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
im guessing a good back up
Gang green nation!
we won the f*#&ing game now lets go get a goddamn snack!
by JETSFANF0RLYF3 on Nov 20, 2010 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
I was thinking
That he and Napoli split the duties with them being complementary as left and right handed. Im going with Napoli as the starter because I still feel that Thole isn’t offensively polished enough. His defensive and game calling abilities are top notch but Napoli is the superior offensive guy. But those two at catcher is a great tandem.
Thole is a polished defensive player?
The questions about him are generally in regard to his glove, as even though he doesn’t have any power his bat will play at catcher.
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 20, 2010 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
i say why not you get two young all-star type players and a good power catcher for potential id make this deal in a heartbeat i mean it helps the angels with power bats it give the dbacks what they want good prospects every should be happy but i dont think it happens tho but its good to dream
Gang green nation!
we won the f*#&ing game now lets go get a goddamn snack!
While I like
the idea of trading for J-Up, there are too many moving parts for this to work.
What's that about?
There is never too many anything
Never give up. Anything is possible son. Fo shizzle. Also I’m thinking of sending this outline to the Mets as a suggestion and see if it even gets to anyone that has a say. Maybe try and get some ideas kicking around.
not to be a dick
but do you actually think there’s even the smallest possibility of your trade outline getting to someone that “has a say”? odds of that are similar to cy ollie next year.
then again
you could always forward this to megdal
He didn't say Nick Evans
he said Howard Megdal
by ScottfromPeekskill on Nov 21, 2010 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 5 recs
this
Official Member of The Ancient Mystic Society of No Melo
Official Member of the "DO NOT TRADE DERRICK FAVORS" Movement
"Sabmet are bringing sexy back. Get it? They are bringing sports entertainment times (x is times in math) your interest level in the game. The more sabmet you use, the more interest you garnett"-reader from pinstripe alley
I'm not sure Erwin Santana and Mike Napoli
are worth Mejia, F!, Holt, Lutz, Flores, and Beltran. Napoli I like, but Erwin Santana doesn’t really impress me that much. He’s good, but im not sure he’s 5 prospects and Beltran good even with Napoli.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 20, 2010 7:02 PM EST reply actions
And we were
Also getting Justin Upton from the Dbacks. So thats what all those players r for.
Ervin Santana's a solid young pitcher
who alternates good and bad years. Besides you need a Santana in the rotation, and with Johan out for the year…
I've heard everything from missing spring training to out for the year
Johan will probably be back by May or June.
I believe it was May or June in the best case scenario.
He had the surgery on September 14, and according to Andy McCullough from the Star-Ledger, the recovery time for shoulder anterior capsule tear surgery is 24 weeks (six months), meaning he’d be able to begin extended Spring Training in April/May or so.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 21, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
"Best case" medical scenario?
What is this strange concept and why have the Mets not looked into this?
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
by MookieTheCat on Nov 22, 2010 1:38 AM EST up reply actions
Medical parctices not found in a 13th century manuscript are false hustle.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 22, 2010 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
I think we might have just found a perfect nickname for Ray Ramirez.
The Leech.
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
by MookieTheCat on Nov 23, 2010 12:11 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I lobby
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 23, 2010 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
That's not fair to leeches
They actually can serve a medical purpose.
I am willing to wait to build a world class franchise (h/t to millsy)
by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 23, 2010 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
I'm sure they're not
Official Member of The Ancient Mystic Society of No Melo
Official Member of the "DO NOT TRADE DERRICK FAVORS" Movement
"Sabmet are bringing sexy back. Get it? They are bringing sports entertainment times (x is times in math) your interest level in the game. The more sabmet you use, the more interest you garnett"-reader from pinstripe alley
I was thinking it would be more like
Flores, Mejia, Harvey and Kirk/Lutz straight up for Upton. Maybe instead of Harvey they’d want two upper level pitching prospects, or maybe we could trick them into taking Aderlin+Lutz instead of Flores, but Upton is worth an insane amount, probably too much for most of us to be comfortable sending away. I don’t think your proposal nets enough prospects for the Diamondbacks, especially considering they’d be moving Reynolds too.
I really don’t feel like touching Santana and his dwindling velocity and K rate (sound familiar?) or Napoli and his ineptitude as a catcher.
Kicking knowledge in the face.
Tom,
one thing you might want to consider is including dollar values in your trade proposals. For instance, Upton’s contract calls for him to get 5/50 through 2015. If you project him to be a 4 win player, he’ll provide around $35 million in value in excess of his salary. That gives you a nice starting point for deciding what Upton would be worth in terms of Mets prospects.
I liked two things in particular:
1) your desire to not punt 2011. I agree. There’s enough there for the Mets to contend if they make the right moves.
2) Upton fits the profile of a player whose salary fits the Mets payroll issues: he’s cheap now, expensive later when we’ll have more money available, and assuming the price for Upton in prospects is right, acquiring him doesn’t help the Mets contend in 2011 while hurting them in seasons following.
on this topic
i guess we send the angels like 17 mil as well to pay for beltrans contract?
i like the idea of adding ervin santana and upton, but if we are going to trade a bunch of prospects then i would rather get two good-great young pitchers that could be the core of our rotation for awhile with niese, santana and pelfrey.
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
Tough to figure Beltran's value at this point, but surely $5m is rock bottom,
meaning, worst case, the Mets pick up $13.5m (8.5 now, 5 when the deferred money is due, to be precise).
If the mets pay 13.5 million
to trade Beltran, then they are stupid IMO.
this I don't see how it makes sense
what are we going to et for 4.5 million on the open market that’s better? Orlando Hudson?
Official Member of The Ancient Mystic Society of No Melo
Official Member of the "DO NOT TRADE DERRICK FAVORS" Movement
Santonio Holmes: you don't need open field moves when you've got getting away from the cops speed.
Exactly my point
Beltran for 4-5 million would be a great gamble on a player if he was a FA.
A lot also depends on whether Beltran can demonstrate
that the inflammation around the microfracture that put him on the bench to end the season is no longer an issue. Until he does he falls into the category of “complete and total flyer.”
...but he didn't have microfracture surgery.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 23, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
That's wrong though...the next update even says it was a "scope clean up"
and then read this from Will Carroll in May. He says if it was microfracture surgery, Beltran would’ve been on crutches for a long time, which he wasn’t.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 24, 2010 6:55 AM EST up reply actions
So this is essentially two trades:
T1 Mets – DBacks
Mejia, Flores, Fernando, Holt, Lutz – Jupton, Reynolds
(exchange of lower prospects between LAA and Ari)
T2 Mets – Angels
Beltron, Reynolds – Santana, Napoli
The T1 haul of prospects is arguably deeper than the 4 sent for Johan way back when and Jupton isn’t as established a star, although he does have a ton of upside. In any event, I tend to agree that moving Fartinez could very well be a positive for him and the Mets, but Mejia is our top prospect and would be a top 3 in Arizona’s system (if not #1). Reynolds is an established power threat, but that’s about it. His BABIP was way down so he should bounce back in that regard, but he isn’t defensively great and he will KO like it’s his job. But he would just get passed on to T2.
Ervin Santana can be a great pitcher, but he tends to fit in between great and average, while Beltron is a premier CF albeit with some immediate injury history. He still is great at the plate and a plus defender. Napoli is the catching equivalent of Reynolds (unless I’m mistaken on his def, feel free to correct me). Why would LAA use Beltron as a DH when Reynolds seems more ideal for that spot. I would think the Mets lose a little on this move since Beltron is the best player and the last thing we need is another pitcher with some injury history (although his real name is Johan).
To be truthful I could just be too attached to Beltron and a little spoiled by our ridiculously unfair original Johan trade.
Keep popping out ideas though, maybe Sandy will hire us as a brain trust to amuse him.
"..."
by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Nov 21, 2010 12:04 AM EST reply actions
yeah
Upton has way, way more trade value now than Santana did at that point.
Kicking knowledge in the face.
Yup
Upton is young and on a long term deal. Santana was neither.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
I'm wary on Jupton
He is a definite prize for an OF, but in terms of players to throw a load of prospects at in exchange there are several better options (Choo?)…granted, Jupton is the only one being “shopped.”
Reviewing his 09 and 10 numbers the only positive change was an increased BB rate, otherwise his ISO declined, K rate increased, BABIP remained similar as his BA dropped, he was worse on the basepaths, and he doubled his GIDP. He is young and will still improve and can learn new tricks, but so is BJ Upton and look at the difference between his 07-08 and 09-10 groups of seasons…we all know that baseball issues are genetic.
"..."
by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Nov 21, 2010 5:07 AM EST up reply actions
JU has youth on his side
and if he ever learns to make contact….
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 21, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
I like the creativity
and I don’t feel it’s actually that crazy a idea. It’s definitely the best trade proposal you’ve posted on here that I’ve seen yet. That said, I still don’t like the idea of trading Mejia or Flores even if it means getting Upton back. And I’m not keen on Ervin Santana at all (decreasing K%, rising BB%, rising FIP’s) especially at the price of F!, Holt, and Lutz. Napoli I like though.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
It's a very creative trade, and it's not too out there
One of your better proposals. I’m just wondering if we’re giving up a lot: Beltran, Mejia and Flores, not to mention Lutz (and don’t write him off because Wright is at third; he could always move to first in the near future). I’m not very sold on Ervin Santana, I think he’s someone who benefits from a deceptive ERA.
I’m not going to rip you, though.
Formerly firejerrynow
Well, Beltran's really not much at all to give up:
no future with the team, may have zero value in 2011, no picks when he leaves….
I’m not remotely convinced Mejia is going to make it as a starter, let alone a very good starter, and while Flores projects very well, he’s also very far away and doesn’t have a position yet. These are two guys you cheerfully give up for Upton, imo.
Above I figured that even if Upton putters along at his disappointing 4 win pace of 2010 he’ll provide $35m in surplus value. I don’t expect the average of Mejia and Flores to exceed that while they’re under the Mets control, and Upton still has real superstar potential. Upton bumps the 2011 Mets halfway towards contention all by his lonesome, and is a building block from 2012 through 2015. He’s exactly what the Mets need, and I suspect Arizona would chuckle mightily if Alderson called w an offer of Mejia and Flores.
But does Beltran really have 0 value in 2011?
I understand wanting to get something for him, but why wait until July when he might actually net some players? Think about this…in his 255 abs, he was worth 0.9 WAR and that’s with his defense coming out on the negative side. His first month plus was basically like Spring Training because he hadn’t played in nearly a year (not counting the little stint at the end of 09) and once he got into his groove, he was great in September (he put up a .967 OPS). Just based on his plate discipline he will be an immense upgrade from the Smile in RF and if his September is a barometer, the guy can still hit. Personally, I’d much rather keep him and see what he does and then if we’re out of it by the deadline, deal him for prospects. Teams will be lining up considering the guy is, you know, a potential hall of famer.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 21, 2010 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't say that, ("*may* have zero value") but instead put his rock bottom value at 5 mil upthread,
and I didn’t follow your sentence that seemed internally contradictory wrt ‘why wait’ on Beltran… did you mean, ‘why not wait’?
I don’t mean this wrt you, but I’m weary of the Mets FO farting around (Jeff Wilpon’s nonsense last offseason about not acquiring a pitcher because they’re often cheaper during the season, and so forth). In this case the Mets have far, far more information with which to project Beltran’s performance in 2011 than any other team has. That knowledge has substantial value. By July 2011 Beltran’s projection for the rest of the year will be a known quantity, and the Mets advantage in that regard will have largely evaporated. Assuming the Mets can get something useful for Beltran now, they should, whether that’s a prospect towards 2012 and beyond, or a useful player if they aim to contend some in 2011.
Say you can get the equivalent of 7m for Beltran tomorrow. Even if he’s playing well as of the deadline, you’re selling only one-third of his season, whicm makes it unlikely you’ll get as much then as you could get now.
The only reason to keep Beltran is if you can’t get anything in trade, imo.
The way I'd see it, I'd rather get a good player or prospect in return for Beltran
than money. Money in this market means nothing, considering how crappy the free agent market is (and the trade market doesn’t seem all that hot so far either). If you deal Beltran now, you may get 7 million back but then you’ll have to find a decent RFer along with a 2nd baseman, 2 SPs and bench and bullpen guys. That 7 million is going to be totally neutralized just trying to get a decent RFer to replace Beltran (say a good replacement for Beltran costs 10 million…you’re paying the new guy’s 10 million + Beltran’s remaining 12.5 million=22.5 million for decent RF production). So what’s the point? In all honesty, you’re probably not even going to get a prospect in return for Carlos right now and the replacement in RF will be worse than Beltran (the only players I could think of on the market who’d be better than Beltran are Werth and Justin Upton and possibly Crawford, but his contract demands are certainly a deterrent to me).
So why not get your half season of above average (at the least) production in RF from Beltran and then deal him in July? If he’s hitting near career norms, his value absolutely will be up enough to the point where you can deal him for a good player or prospect…not only will he be hitting, but he’ll be more affordable to a team in the playoff race and then you can use his monster playoff stats as a selling point to another team and that could be a big boon to his value. Plus, by July perhaps an internal prospect is ready to take over in RF (whether it be Nieuwenheis, F-Mart, Duda) whereas there’s nobody in house ready to start in the OF on opening day.
I just don’t see what the rush is at this point, considering the guy is only 33 and he put up a .967 OPS in September. I’m not going to punt 2011 because I’ve seen teams with much less go far in a season. With Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Pagan, Davis, Dickey, Pelfrey, Frankie, Bay and Niese among others…that’s a solid group of players that just needs to be surrounded by better parts and a few trades/shrewd signings could do that. As constituted, with everybody healthy and playing up to expectations, I think it’s not out of line that this team could win 85 games. In the end…I don’t see teams being willing to trade parts for Beltran because his value is artificially down. Teams will want him but they will want him on a discount because his injuries could be looked at as risky. If it’s midseason and he’s performing, there’s no discount…you’ll get full value for him.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 21, 2010 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
This.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 21, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree
I feel that it would be smarter to move Beltran before the season if we get a good enough return. If we could add a talent like Upton to man RF that would be a major improvement for this season and the next 5-10 years. It wouldn’t make sense to hold onto him and try t move him at the deadline. What if he injures his knee while fielding and then he has no value. He is much ore valuable to an AL team because as a DH he would stay healthy. I think he still will do well this year but he would be more useful to an AL team.
But that's the problem...if you read my post, I said
we’re likely to not get a good enough return. Upton would be a great replacement but I just don’t see it happening the way you have it laid out. If anybody takes Beltran, they will want him at a discount because the Mets have crushed his value with all of the surgery shenanigans from last year. What would you consider a solid return for Beltran? The guy will likely be a type A even though we can’t offer arbitration, so I want the equivalent of two first rounders at the least. This guy’s still solid producer and a future hall of famer.
And so what if Beltran injures his knee again? He’s a free agent at the end of the year.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 21, 2010 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
Yea
I think we would get a good return, why would we not. You don’t know how much an AL team would value him. And if the Angels are getting Reynolds and Beltran thats a good return.
Like I said...I don't think that deal as constructed would happen.
Too many moving parts. What do you think they could realistically get for Beltran and what would be enough in return for you to move him if you were GM?
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 21, 2010 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
Why would any other team value him very highly?
Injuries up the wazoo, injury shenanigans (whether or not they weren’t even his creation), diminished defensive performance, and so-so results at the plate, a lot of money owed, and being 33 on top of that. No team is going to value that very highly unless he shows he can be his old self. We’d be lucky to get a B prospect while sending 15 or so $M with him right now.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
mm, your idea is great
in 2004. Or 2005. Or even 2008. But, Beltran’s not that player any more, and never will be. That part of his life is over.
“If he’s hitting near career norms”? If he’s lucky he has a couple of three win seasons left. Sadly, nobody is going to pay five cents for Beltran’s once-upon-a-time postseason performance. You want a guy who’s had very, very serious surgery—microfracture surgery, and he ended his season on the bench—at the beginning of his baseball old age to come back and play at a HOF level—a HOF level is, after all, his career norm (it just hasn’t been a long enough career). It’s like wanting to pay Reyes as though 2009 and 2010 never happened. A GM who lives in the past will bury this Mets team the same way Minaya buried the Mets over the last several season, by not accepting his players’ current abilities, and getting the most out of those abilities.
He put up a .332 wOBA this year hitting with a brace
that by itself would get him to three wins with just average defense.
Official Member of The Ancient Mystic Society of No Melo
Official Member of the "DO NOT TRADE DERRICK FAVORS" Movement
Santonio Holmes: you don't need open field moves when you've got getting away from the cops speed.
Also, his wOBA doesn't change the fact
that he was worth less than a win in two-fifths of a season, that he’s no longer a CFer and may no longer be able to play the field without grave risk, that every game he plays in the field he increases the chances of reinjuring himself. The Mets have a very good CFer in Pagan, lessening Beltran’s value to them, and even if Bay comes back as a replacement level player with his contract he’ll have at least a year to work things out, which leaves Beltran all of one place to play.
All this talk of giving the vet a chance to regain his old position is just a courtesy to Beltran. It’s like taking your grandmother to visit the house where she was born. She may hope the family can buy it and she can die there, but someone is going to bave to break it to her eventually. Beltran’s upside is 3 wins on a team that uses him wisely and probably has a DH spot open for him. Gina—you’ve said you think Beltran is a HOFer based on his current stats, whereas I’m convinced he’ll have to pad his resume with the equivalent of roughly four more 3 win seasons. His best shot at doing that is in the AL, and a trade of Beltran to the AL is the move most likely to bring the Mets back a fairly surefire couple of wins in 2011. If I’m Alderson I look to cut down on variance (and its corresponding increase in the likelihood of a fiasco of a season) in 2011, and if by eating salary I can get the equivalent of Orlando Hudson for Carlos Beltran for the 2011 season, I do it without regrets..
I also put the chances that Beltran announces his retirement
this offseason at around 20%.
Really?
You really think that
1)he’ll walk away from the last 17.5 million on deal and
2)he’s in that bad shape that he’ll retire?
I don’t understand where you come up with these things. Yes, he’s had knee problems but between the surgery and the brace, he should be good for a few more seasons. They cleaned up some garbage in his knee…they didn’t give him a robotic knee or something. Let me ask you: imagine this was Opening Day 2009 before all the knee injury/surgery stuff cropped up. Tell me on Opening Day 2009 what your opinion of Carlos Beltran as a player was because from the way you’re downplaying him, I have a feeling that you do not hold him in a very high regard and that you did not like him even when he was performing at superstar levels from 2006-2008.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 24, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Beltran was very good in September/October as his speed was coming back
He had a 0.417 wOBA and a 0.9 WAR in that period.
"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel
After a year of not playing baseball.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
Come on.
He should've come back and put up a 1.000 OPS right from June.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 23, 2010 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
You don't seem to realize that his numbers were poor in
July and August because he:
1)missed an entire year of baseball (he was put on the DL in June 09)
2)didn’t have a spring training due to his missing an entire year of baseball.
Look what happened when he got into a groove in September. I’m not going to say he’s going to put up that .967 OPS but if he could put up even an .800 OPS for the full season, that’d be so much more valuable than what you’ll get for him in return today, tomorrow or even in March. Let the guy build up some value…I trust in Carlos Beltran to do what he’s done his entire time with the Mets: play through his injuries.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 23, 2010 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
To take you at your word, .275/.350/.450 with below
average defense in a corner?
Give me Orlando Hudson any day.
wtf give you hudson
Hudson’s offense has been declining and his value came entirely from one extreme outlier year of defense higher than anything he’s put up in the last 4 years. I’d say there’s damn near no chance he breaks two war. I’d say there’s a better chance Beltran is worth 3 WAR than Hudson is worth anything he signs for, assuming he signs for more than the vet min.
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Santonio Holmes: you don't need open field moves when you've got getting away from the cops speed.
Yeah this...
Hudson’s on the decline and is not even the player that Beltran probably is right now.
So say you trade Beltran and pay 12.5 million of his salary and then sign Hudson for 5 million. Who is playing in RF on Opening Day? I’m really curious to hear who you’re going to get that is as good as Beltran and will not break the bank.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 24, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
And that question is directed at Jack Str.
btdubs.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 24, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
I'm really curious to understand why
anyone would want Hudson
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Santonio Holmes: you don't need open field moves when you've got getting away from the cops speed.
I mean if he came really cheap
I’d be interested in Hudson at 2B but assuming he’ll want at least 5 million and possibly more than a year and that he was offered arbitration by the Twins, I’d much rather just stick with Murphy and/or Turner at 2B to see what we’ve got internally. Between those two and Tejada they have plenty of options to experiment with.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 24, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, Turner, Murphy, and Tejada
are options, they’re just bad options. At best you have an unimpressive bat with bad defense. At worse you have a terrible bat with ordinary defense. These guys are known quantities. If a GM can’t predict what they’re going to do next year with a high degree of certainty, he shouldn’t be GMing. There’s no need, for instance, to see what Turner’s going to do. There’s no chance he’s going to be as good as, say, Orlando Hudson. We know he’s a good bet to be a little better than Tejada, which means he’ll be poor. If you want to know whether Tejada might put up a 700 OPS in 2013, you find that out by putting him in AA this year and AAA next year.
On the job training when you know the guy is going to struggle around replacement level is for Burger King, not one of the handful of premiere ML franchises. There’s no reason to repeat Minaya’s mistakes.
No offense taken, I hope.
Did your crystal ball tell you this?
You are taking your “projections,” which are not based on much of anything as complete fact and that’s just wrong. I would prefer Tejada to play a whole year in AAA to work on his hitting and maybe over the next year, he picks up a little more muscle and his plate discipline improves (which it should since he’s 21). But Murphy and Turner I think could be interesting options. On Murphy—the guy put up a .741 OPS as a rookie in 2009. Maybe his D is suspect but he’s got a potentially solid bat (and already better than Hudson, who put up a very meh .710 OPS last year. Now that is admittedly a down year for Hudson but at the same time, he’s over 30 and it could be a sign that he’s on the way down. Meanwhile Murphy is just 26 and he can certainly improve on 2009 offensively and he got a solid review in the AFL defensively from a scout in this article.
Meanwhile, Turner’s defense is suspect but he’s hit at every level of the minor leagues. I don’t know all that much about him but I’d like to see more of him in spring training for sure.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 25, 2010 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, I dunno, the 3 wins?
Are we talking about the same Orlando Hudson, who tends to get significantly underpaid, to play a position that was a whirling vortex of suck for the Mets for the last several years, such that Plan A as often told as a guy with an unimpressive bat who lost a season trying to play there? That Orlando Hudson?
Hudson’s WAR over the last seven seasons was
3.7, 2.3, 2.2, 3.0, 1.5, 2.9, 3.1.
The 1.5 came from a freaky UZR number. In the last seven years he’s been amazingly consistent, and fangraphs has him averaging around $11m in value every year. If he can be had for what the Mets would get back in salary relief by trading Beltran, to fill a void on the diamond, and all but eliminate Beltran’s variance (variance with minimal upside, say three wins), it’s an easy move to make.
Second baseman have been significantly undervalued for years. If you don’t like Hudson, then pick up whatever 2-3 win guy you deem preferable in return for the salary relief.
If y’all aren’t making a deal because you think Beltran’s a significantly better than 50-50 bet to come back and put up a 5-6 win season, there’s probably not much to talk about, cause that’d mean y’all are plum loco.
Tell me how he's even a 50-50 bet to come back.
There have been no rumors and no talk that he’s quitting or that he can’t play whatsoever. You’re the only person I’ve ever seen write such a thing.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 25, 2010 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
That's not what "come back" means.
To “come back” from a down year. Surely that’s in context.
A-ha.
Got it.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 27, 2010 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
By the way, I think your narrative,
that Beltran was hurt, struggled for a while, but came back and in the last month of the season turned it on such that we can believe he’s probably back to being the Beltran of old, is at least a partial misreading of the story.
From mid-August to mid-September Beltran wasn’t good at all, with an OPS of .748. As late as September 21st 2010, Beltran’s OPS was under .700. It was only the last seven days of his season, literally his last five games, when he went on an 1.556 OPS tear, that caused his seasonal numbers to look much better than Ruben Tejada’s.
So, it really wasn’t his September at all, but rather his September 22nd through September 28th. That’s one whole week, five whole games on which you’re hanging your hat and making your multimillion dollar bet, mm.
My last point is that whether you go with Beltran
in 2011 has everything to do with where you think the Mets are as of today. If you think they’re about as good as their 2010 record, maybe a little worse since Santana won’t be as good as he was in 2010, then sticking with Beltran does make sense. After all, even if there’s only a small chance he’ll return to top form, no matter what you get for him in trade won’t come close to bringing back his potential to put up a 7 WAR season. It’s a little like having the guy you owe $35,000 standing behind you in the casino with a hypodermic full of sulphuric acid that he’s ready to jam into your spine. If you’re at the roulette table and are down to your last thousand, and he says pay up or else, you might as well put it all on any single number.
I happen to think the Mets, with whatever other moves Alderson can make that involve cheap or free moves at the margins, are closer to being an 85 win than a 79 win team, and that if he can get a solid 2bman for Beltran, that bumps them up to an 87 or 88 win team. If you think like I do, that the Mets are in a place where marginal wins are enormously precious, then trading Beltran for vastly more certainty, albeit with more modest upside, is a straightforward and appealing proposition.
And
What do you mean who cares if he gets hurt? Umm that would not be good. We would not be able to get anything out of him and nothing for him at the deadline. That’s why we would want to move him before the season to a team where he can DH and stay healthy.
I do care whether he gets hurt.
I wouldn’t want the team—assuming it could—to run him out there to Beltran’s detriment. That wouldn’t be right.
You make some good points, but we'll have to disagree on most of them.
A lot of it is your description of Beltran as though he was an excellent bet to be at least 90% the player he was in his prime, while I think there’s a much better chance he never puts up so much as a 3 win season ever again, and it’s better than 50-50 that he’s never again a productive regular. I don’t see much common ground given all that.
well said Mistermet
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 22, 2010 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Dammit...I meant
I understand wanting to get something for him, but why NOT wait until July when he might actually net some players?
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 21, 2010 3:31 PM EST reply actions
And that was a reply to my reply to Jack Str.
Jeez I’m not having a good one here.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 21, 2010 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
See my post immediately above.
In a nutshell, waiting in this case is likely to gain next to nothing while costing you whatever you might currently be able to get for CBelt. You’ll be able to get at least as much for a full season of promise and projection as you will for one-third of a season of good production, and of course if he can’t play well through July, you won’t get anything.
Btw, where do you think the Mets currently are in the success cycle? That could explain some of our difference of opinion.
interesting idea
really some thought into it, of course it takes a lot for it to actually happen. plus I am not that sold on Upton..I do like E Santana and Napoli maybe, if Thole falters it would be good to have him
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
wait
you’re not sold on Upton and you like Santana and Napoli more? I don’t really understand that one…
Kicking knowledge in the face.
Upton
does have some question marks like health, strikeouts, and uncertain upside. However he is such a young dynamic talent whose benefits greatly outweigh the risks. Santana is nothing sure either but he should be a good 2-3 tandem with Pelfrey. He is an upgrade over our ptichers and fills a big hole in our rotation. He completes the rotation w a healthy J. Santana. And Napoli is such a great offensive asset and would be a great team w Thole.
well
Upton’s upside is certainly not uncertain. I think it’s pretty certain he’s got the upside of a hall of famer, it’s whether or not he’ll ever hit it that’s uncertain.
What are you proposing to do with Napoli? He’s one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball, and probably should be playing first base/DH as the righty part of a platoon. He’d definitely be a nice backup, but in full-season playing time the differences between his and Thole’s value would be negligible. Plus, I think it’d be smart to let Thole be the everyday catcher, not platooned.
Santana’s contract is essentially a 3 year-32 million dollar deal with the third year being a team option. With improvement from Niese and if we count Johan in the mix, Ervin could very well be the 5th best starter on the team. He may save a few runs by switching to the NL or playing half his games in Citi Field, but that won’t be much. He was great in 2008, but he’s just not going to approach that performance again. Do we really want to seek out the contract of a 2-3 win player that will essentially be worth exactly what he’s going to be paid? If we’re going to do that, we might as well try and give Cliff Lee a 3-year 90 million dollar deal.
Kicking knowledge in the face.
of course Lee would be better
but somehow it seems like we are not even in the talks. I hope now that we have a manager that changes and we go after him
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Nov 22, 2010 7:30 AM EST up reply actions
Lee is going to cost at least 5 years at 20 per year
For a 32 year old pitcher, that’s absurd. For a team that has money issues and just lost another pitcher with a gigantic contract to injury, signing Lee to that kind of deal would be moronic. I’d love to have Lee for the next two or three seasons if we had the money to spend, but it would be a stupid move to sign him and would handicap this team for the next five or six years.
Just read
Pure rumor, but Lee is getting offered 5 140 to start!
I think Lee will probably age better than most pitchers his age
and I still think that’s downright insane
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Santonio Holmes: you don't need open field moves when you've got getting away from the cops speed.
It's pretty crazy, but the Yankees need him badly
so I’m sure that’s what getting this done asap is all about.
I heard 5/120 with a buyout at the end
so it comes to pretty much the same thing.
plus Upton D isn't great
he had a decent year at .985 but for his career at .963 stinks, and not many throw outs.
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Nov 22, 2010 7:34 AM EST up reply actions
Fielding % is a bad way to measure defense, though.
His career UZR/150 is 2.4, with significantly better numbers the past two seasons after an awful -13.9 in 2008.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 22, 2010 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
I just do not want a big strikeout guy. Santana has pitched well at times and Napoli is theveteran catcher we need
he is young and could be talented, but I see his brother underperofrming a lot and wonder if he is the same.
I would actualy rather get Drew as a 2B from AZ. straight up for Murphy. Drew has teh same career BA and very similar SLG/OPS
Santana is a good #2, plus the NL is usually easier to pitch in, probably see his ERA go down. I like a rotation that is eventually , 2 Santanas, Pelf, Dickey, Neise
Napoli is a godd hiiting C, that if Thole craps out this season come sina plays everyday with some power
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Nov 22, 2010 7:26 AM EST up reply actions
I don't see why Arizona would do that trade.
Stephen Drew is way more valuable than Murphy. Drew may not be a huge star, but he was worth 5.1 WAR this season, and has a 10.1 WAR for his career. Murphy, in 1 1/2 seasons, has been worth just 1.9. Murph may be cheaper, but I think they’d rather have Drew anyway.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 22, 2010 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
if Ervin Santana is our #2 starter, we won't be making the playoffs
Unless, of course, he pitches like it’s 2008, which he won’t.
You also say you don’t want a high strikeout guy in Upton but that you want Napoli. Their career and 2010 K rates are nearly exactly the same. (right around 30%) I’d bet that Upton’s value in 2011 approaches the combined value of Santana and Napoli in 2011.
We’d probably need to send something like Murphy + Havens + a pitching prospect to get Drew.
Kicking knowledge in the face.
Speaking of the Johan,
I hope Alderson is building the rotation around the idea that Santana is about 50% to give the team a few games next year with an ERA around 4.50, and is treating any contributions from him after 2011 as gravy only.
I admit having a reasonably healthy Santana as your backup plan in 2012 and 2013 is a pretty nice backup plan, but predicating contending on Santana being anything like the pitcher he was even as recently as this year would be foolhardy. In cases like this, it always helps to ask, WWTRSD? By the beginning of the 2012 season they’d have for the rotation
They’d have
1. A stud
2. Another stud
3. R.A. Dickey
4. Mike Pelfrey
5. Jon Niese
6. Another starter with upside
7. Johan Santana
8. Dillon Gee
9. Mejia (ETA 2013)
10. Harvey (ETA 2013)
That might be enough pitching, but you’d want at least a couple of reclamation projects in the wings as well.
by Jack Str on Nov 21, 2010 8:52 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Mejia will be ready before 2013, unless he gets seriously injured
He needs time in AAA to work on his curveball, slider and changeup. All of 2011 should be more than enough time.
"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel
We disagree,
but I think it’s in the nature of being a Mets fan, to expect players will be ready sooner rather than later. Mejia wasn’t even close to being a good, durable starter, and actually has NEVER put up the numbers of a good, durable starter. Not once. Ever. Expecting that in a single year given all the work he has to do strikes me as unreasonable.
Just so we’re on the same page, Mejia has never pitched 100 innings in pro ball, and has exceeded 80 innings all of once. Guys with much better projections than Mejia almost never go from pitching relievers innings to starters innings in the space of one year.
2013, and that’s if everything goes well.
Huh?
I think they’ll give him a full year in AAA this year where he can throw his 150+ innings and work on his breaking stuff. From what I saw, the offspeed stuff isn’t bad and it actually looked devastating at times. He just needs to develop consistency with it and a whole season working on that will help get there. I will guess we don’t see him in the majors again until September 2011 but I think he’ll have a shot at a rotation spot in ST 2012 and at the latest, he’ll be up for good by mid 2012. Don’t forget that he’s on the clock in terms of option years since he’s inexplicably on the 40 man roster…2010 was his first option year, 2011 will be his second and 2012 will be his last. If he’s not on the roster for good by 2012 and in the rotation, they’re going to have some hard decisions to make with him in 2013 and that’ll say a lot about what his potential is and how his development has gone.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 21, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
Well, like I said, we disagree.
A guy whose secondary stuff isn’t plus, or even good, and who hasn’t thrown a hundred innings a season, is NOWHERE near starter material. One year won’t do it, and two may not. I understand you think I’m insane, but Mejia pitching well as a durable starter in the majors as of 2013 is an optimistic projection. Pitchers simply do not develop solid secondary offerings, double their durability, and go from a 1.65 WHIP—which is brutal—against major league hitters to something dramatically better, in the space of a single year. In fact, it’s all but impossible.
While this isn’t the forum for it, I would bet astronomical amounts of money against the proposition that Mejia will have more than 25 starts with a major league club in 2012 with an ERA under 4.25.
He's secondary stuff is good
it’s just inconsistent and not under control yet (hence the 1.65 WHIP). I see him coming back something around July or August in 2012.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
I don't think it's actually good
he has a curveball that can be plus when he can control it, but that’s it and he can’t control it very often, nor would I expect him to perfect its control in a year. And you need more than a fastball, even if it’s an awesome cutter, and a curveball.
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and he doesn't have Omar and Jerry disintergrating his arm anymore
so it should work out for him either way (reliever or starter)…
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 22, 2010 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
eh
I think you’re being a bit optimistic. He could spend all of 2011 in AAA and still not come out anywhere near ready. It’s not that easy to translate between levels most pitchers put up great years in AAA and still take years before they can translate the success to the majors. Even if he had a 2.00 ERA in 200 innings in AAA I wouldn’t expect him to be much better than a 3rd-4th starter in the majors in 2012, if that.
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oh, I am just trying to play Devil's Advocate
I agree Mejia is probably not more than a 3 or 4, but you have to agree Moronuel was destroying his potential…..
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 22, 2010 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
MOVING PARTS
Tom- the responses to your ideas point out the fundamental difference of opinion among Mets fans: contend in 2011 or look to rebuild once Beltran, Perez, & Castillo are off the books. The “contending” faction seems to lean your way. The “rebuilders” also have a point but criticize proposals such as yours. There might be too many players involved in your 3-way deal, but stranger things have happened.
I believe we can do both
we were 4 games under .500 and 12 games behind the Braves. making a couple of moves we contend this year, we may even contend by just adding a pitcher to fill Johan’s void.
in the beginning of the year we managed toget to 1st place despite having Jacobs, Cora, GMJ, castillo, Maine and Perez.
we were a better team with Davis, Tejada, Felciano/Duda/carter, Dickey and Tak2/Gee but somehow played worse. With a better season from Bay, a full season with Beltran or Pagan with Duda in RF, Murphy/Tejada/Trner at 2B, we are better. plus Reyes hopefully is in the lineup all season
the rotation with dickey, Pelf, Neise as 2,3,4 starters is OK. I think Neise pitches better down the stretch, ran out of gas this season. I expect the Dickey thing to continue, Pelf is a big question, can he pitch like last season again. Gee or another #5 is ok, but no Johan…we need to bring in a #1 or very solid #2 to fill the void
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Nov 22, 2010 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
Duda in RF will be a disaster
which is why i think that the Mets should hold onto Beltran for 2011. The player to move is Bay, as long as we don’t trade him for another ridiculous contract.
"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel
the player to move is Bay
but who is going to take him?
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Not sure
but the Angels could be interested if they fail to sign either Crawford or Werth.
"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel
would they be that stupid, russ?
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 22, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
Not stupid
Desperate. Arte Moreno, the owner of the Angels, has said that he’ll spend whatever it takes to get back to the playoffs. The Angels want Crawford. If they can’t get him, Werth. If they can’t get Werth? No one knows, but that’s where it could get interesting.
Bay isn’t tradable at least until spring training, when people can see him play. It would be at that time that the Mets could offer Bay to the Angels.
"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel
yeah but Bay isn't equivalent to Werth or Crawford
at least OUR version of Jason Bay, anyway.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 23, 2010 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
He doesn't have to be equivalent
If the Angels come up empty handed, and Bay is playing well in spring training (and perhaps early in the season,) he just has to be available.
"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel
he's probably better than crawford
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Santonio Holmes: you don't need open field moves when you've got getting away from the cops speed.
If Bay can play in ST, the Mets would still have to eat at least 20m
in salary. Why would they do that? Who’s going to take his place, particularly if you’re trying to find a LFer in late March?
That better that he plays, the less that the Mets have to eat
Who would replace him? Duda.
"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel
Duda/Nick Who
I agree Bay should be available, but the amount of $$$ owed to him is harder to move than escaping Alcatraz. [hahaha, sorry, I was thinking of a bad pun, like “the Rock” just came up in my brain]
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 26, 2010 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
that is what everyone said after Beltran 1st season too, bay will be fine
I do not see them trading Bay after 1 season anyway. He is here, Pagan needs to be here and I am fine if Beltran stays but he seems to be the best trade chip we have, if we can find someone to take most of the salary
Duda hit decent the end of last season, and I know that there are a lot of AAA pitchers around at the end of the season, but the guy hit at every level and he will hit at the MLB level. It may take a year or so, but he has major league hitting talent. plus he doesn’t cost much. that is money we can put toward a pitcher.
we need pitching still. we did decent last season but the fact is we are not at the level of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels and that is who we have to beat. we need a big time starter to fill in for Johan and compliment him down the road
Neise is still rising and could become avery strong long time #3 starter, Dickey looks ready to throw the knuckleball for a few years at a very good level. I think Pelfrey gave us about as good a season as we will ever get from him. if he stays and gives us 2-3 more seasons at the same level that is decent, but he may be a trade chip.Gee had a few good starts and may also get some interest
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by Rickfansince76 on Nov 22, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
That's not the point
Bay is easily replaceable and Beltran is not.
Also, Beltran’s contract expires at the end of the 2011 season, so there really isn’t any strong need to get rid of him, especially as he has little value.
Bay’s contract is like herpes. It is the gift that keeps on giving. Considering Bay’s age, it is not unreasonable to believe that Duda (and/or other Mets prospects) will perform as well, or better, through the remaining life of the contract.
Simply put, the Mets don’t need Bay, and definitely don’t need his contract.
"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel
I could see Bay getting traded after only one year.
He’s not Alderson’s mistake; he’s Omar’s. And everything I’ve read about Alderson indicates he’s the type of GM willing to swallow a loss and move on, rather than hold on to the player and hope he returns to form. That said, I don’t think he’d trade him right now, since his value is at its lowest.
I am willing to wait to build a world class franchise (h/t to millsy)
by BobbyV_Incognito on Nov 22, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
there's also the fact
Beltrans poor 05 season is basically Bay’s upside.
not really comparable situations.
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What?
I don’t understand. Do you mean Beltran was terrible in 2005? Or did you mean 2006 and Bay will suck no matter what?
I mean in terms of overall value not his exact line
that Beltran’s year was down for him but relative to other centerfielders it was still a solid year, and that when you factor in lingering effects of the concussion Bay probably projects to be an upgrade over most corner outfielders but not a massive one.
Basically that Beltran the player at the time of 2005, or before, was much better than Bay the player is now, or was before the concussion. So comparing the seasons and saying we shouldn’t consider trading Bay because of what Beltran did after the slump doesn’t make sense, because Beltran was always expected to be a much bigger impact player.
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like hopefully leaving LOLie in Mexico?
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by feslenraster on Nov 26, 2010 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
Pelfrey will be fine.
Look at his seasons from 2008-2010. He’s been incredibly consistent the last 3 years (the difference in 2009 was an elevated HR rate and the crappy defense behind him that allowed more hits) but his K/9 and BB/9 have been nearly identical all three seasons. I can’t say I worry about him at all really…I just hope he can show some improvement in the K department. That’d really elevate his game.
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by Steve Schreiber on Nov 22, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
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