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Mets Fire Scouting Director Rudy Terrasas

As first reported by Jon Heyman, the Mets have fired Rudy Terrasas, their director of amateur scouting since 2006. Terrasas had one year remaining on his contract.

As anyone who's followed my draft coverage here can guess, I have not been an admirer of Terrasas's work. I liked his first two selections in 2006 (pitchers Kevin Mulvey and Joe Smith), but the rest of the draft was a huge head-scratcher for me, beginning with John Holdzkom, who is still floundering in the low minors after a series of injuries. And while 2006's draft was merely confusing, 2007's was an obvious disaster, as the team selected the now-infamous "Ruff" Eddie Kunz, a college reliever with a so-so track record, with their first selection.

From that point forward, it was very much a mixed bag with Terrasas, who saw some guys succeed against expectations and others sink immediately. He drafted Ike Davis, Reese Havens, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Sean Ratliff in 2008, but also drafted Brad Holt and Dock Doyle (though I liked both selections at the time). I thought that Terrasas had perhaps turned a corner, but the 2009 draft was yet another unmitigated catastrophe, highlighted by the fifth-round selection of Damien Magnifico, a pitcher with only one asset and a price tag nobody wanted. Some other selections I didn't mind as much, but the team still walked away without first-, fifth, or sixth-round picks. Much of that falls on Terrasas's shoulders. The early results for the 2010 draft are more positive, but the oddness of the draft is startling, due to Terrasas's reliance on older college players with some degree of talent but poor track records.

In some ways, Terrasas was dealt a harsh hand. The Mets clearly didn't want to spend on the draft, and that makes any director's job more difficult. But there are ways to have successful cheap drafts, and I don't think Terrasas was able to do enough with even the marginal resources he possessed. It's not surprising at all to see him shipped out.

No word yet on who his replacement will be. There's a possibility that Paul DePodesta will take direct control over the situation, but he's untested in such a role and might be best served in a more supervisory capacity. Expect lots of speculation that Oakland's prodigal son Grady Fuson will take the job. Truth be told, I'm not terribly impressed with his recent work either, so I'd probably prefer a different face. Either way, I think the Mets' scouting department got a little better today.

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What was Magnifico's asset?

Was it his name? Because that’s a pretty awesome name.

by Dan Lewis on Nov 20, 2010 4:05 PM EST reply actions  

All right

Two assets. He also could touch 97. But he had no command, breaking ball, or changeup, he had poor mechanics, he was short, and he wanted seven figures. A guy you take in round 20, not round 5 when you don’t have a first round pick.

He went to a community college for the 2010 season and stabilized the velocity some but battled elbow problems and went undrafted this year.

by Alex Nelson on Nov 20, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I tried to buy a Stoner jersey.

But you had to get it custom.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Nov 20, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Gotta

believe Roy Smith is the obvious choice

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 4:15 PM EST reply actions  

Possible

but Roy Smith has never been a SD and his job title with the Mets is supposedly “pro scout.” It’s entirely possible that is incorrect or could change, but as of right now I wouldn’t expect it.

by Alex Nelson on Nov 20, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I

have a hard time believing Smith left a job as an assistant to the GM to be simply a “scout”. I think it’s more likely his title when hired here was “for the time being”. DP has made clear he will be in charge of the draft so an actual “scouting director” here won’t have the same power/decision making as a traditional team. Smith has worked with Collins, DePo and Ricciardi.

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry

he was special assistant in Pittsburgh and vice president of scouting in LA

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Never

made sense why they hired Terrasas anyway. Bove had an AWESOME draft in 2005 and yet was replaced.

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 4:26 PM EST reply actions  

Bove

Bove’s draft, at the time, was seen as a disaster. It looks better now, but it took a lot of work. People loved Pelfrey, but he was seen as a no-brainer with where the Mets took him. Hector Pellot had no business being drafted where he was; he was a middle infielder with iffy defense and no bat. Drew Butera always had a good chance to reach the bigs as a backup due to his glove, but he was seen as very problematic as a hitter. Cain was terrible. Hated that pick then, and I wasn’t alone.

I did like Niese, though scouts were very mixed on him. Parnell looks like a great pick today, but he was a small-conference pitcher who spent three years pitching terribly at Charleston. I would’ve hated the pick had I been following the draft back then. Thole was a short first baseman with absolutely no power, and few people thought he’d make it as a catcher. Bove probably deserved more credit. Furthermore, the mere fact that he was fired after only one year despite being Omar Minaya’s friend is telling about what happened behind the scenes that year.

by Alex Nelson on Nov 20, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

That Minaya didn't really have much say over personnel decisions?

Or something else?

"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-

by future on Nov 20, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions  

My guess

is that things were contentious behind the scenes. Might have had cross checkers and area scouts who were unhappy, etc. That, coupled with the early opinions of the Mets’ draft being so negative, probably gave Minaya no choice but to fire Bove, who did follow him from Montreal to take the job.

by Alex Nelson on Nov 20, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Initial "opinions"

on a draft have very little value. The proof is in the pudding and Parnell, Pelfrey, Thole and Niese (Niese was expected go to 2nd round and fell due to signability) is pretty clearly the best draft under Omar Minaya (and was run by Bove). The 2007 draft looked horrible on paper and even worse now. Butera is nothing special but he’s a legit MLB backup catcher and would almost certainly be our backup catcher in 2011 had we not traded him. He threw out 45% of would be basestealers in the minors and 43% in the majors. Is he anything special? Not at all but drafting any player in the 5th round that makes the majors and is likely to play a “role” for the next few years has to be seen as a “hit”.

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Put

it this way. If we had a Parnell, Pelfrey, Thole, Niese, Butera every year people would be more than happy.

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Well sure

If you can guarantee that he’d do that. But here’s the thing: bad processes do not always lead to bad results. If I were to walk into a public building and resolve to marry the first woman that walked through the door, it would be a bad decision. If the first person that walked through the door was beautiful, kind, funny, rich, perfect in every way, that does not mean the thought process that guided the decision was healthy. Even incompetent people get lucky all the time.

I will say this: it is exceptionally rare that scouting directors get fired after just one year. Especially when said scouting director is a friend of the boss. My guess is the organization as a whole felt Bove’s preparation or ability to communicate with his underlings was lacking. The short term opinion of the 2005 draft made the decision easier, I’m sure.

by Alex Nelson on Nov 20, 2010 5:11 PM EST up reply actions  

You

may very well be right but my point was more…. fans tend to point to guys like Pelfrey, Niese, Parnell etc as proof the drafts haven’t been “that bad” but since 06 (when Terrasas has taken over) what do we have to show for it on the big league level? Ike (excellent pick), Daniel Murphy, Dillon Gee, Duda and a few guys we were able to trade (Mulvey, Joe Smith etc) who are barely MLB players if at all. Sure guys like Allen Lutz or Niesen COULD end up being guys who may help one day but 2006-2009 (I’m not going to count 2010 as its far too early) thats around 200 picks with very little to show for it at the MLB level and very few “high level” prospects drafted by Terrasas.

John Sickels top 21 Mets prospects 1 in our top 5 was drafted by Terrasas (unproven Matt Harvey)

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

2005 was a good draft, but not awesome

The four players cited are two mid-rotation starting pitchers, a reliever, and a league average catcher. Not bad, but not awesome.

As far as 2005 being “pretty clearly the best draft under Omar Minaya,” I really don’t think that this is the case.

2008 has so far given us Ike Davis, who had a higher WAR in 2010 than any of the four players mentioned in 2005. Other players selected include Reese Havens, Brad Holt, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Sean Ratliff, Josh Satin, Mark Cohoon and Kyle Allen. Not all of these players will succeed at the MLB level, but it is too early to write off most of these players.

2010 was a really good draft, and it easily has the potential to blow away 2005. Matt Harvey, Cory Vaughn and Akeel Morris all have elite potential. Other quality prospects include Blake Forsythe, Matt den Dekker and Erik Goeddel. FIve years from now, I doubt that the 2005 draft will be seen as anywhere near the quality of the 2010 draft.

"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel

by Russ on Nov 20, 2010 7:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know if you could call 2010 "really good"

I mean there’s some interesting upside in Harvey, Vaughn, Morris and Goeddel but the Forsythe pick was panned pretty widely (his strike zone judgement is considered to be very poor) and aside from his defense, I haven’t heard great things about Den Dekker.

I agree that 2008 still has a shot to be the best draft…there’s a lot of talent from that draft moving up the pipeline and though not all of it will pan out, I believe that we’ll certainly see some of Havens, Nieuwenheis and Satin very soon.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!

by Steve Schreiber on Nov 20, 2010 7:32 PM EST up reply actions  

At this time, 2010 looks really good to me

If only Harvey, Vaughn and Morris meet their potential at the MLB level, and everyone else is a flop, it will better than “really good,” and better than the 2005 draft.

Forsythe is looking like a dud. Den Dekker has been praised for his hitting ability, as well as his defense.

"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel

by Russ on Nov 20, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Morris

is 18 years old and pitched 24 innings in the GCL, to expect him to reach his “potential” isn’t very realistic yet. Just last year everyone was LOVING Kyle Allen, now suddenly the bloom is off the rose and he did far more at a much higher level of baseball. den Dekker is a projected 4th OF with a fantastic glove but displayed ZERO power and struck out like it was going out of style this year in his first year.

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, and it is also too early to say that he'll never make it

2005 was not a good draft, not a great one. None of the four players are elite.

"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel

by Russ on Nov 20, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

As

it stands now it has outperformed every other draft during the Omar Minaya era. 2006 draft for example has Daniel Murphy and Joe Smith as the “best” players, 2007 Duda and Gee, 2008 Ike

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 8:08 PM EST up reply actions  

2007

would have been better than 2005 if “only” Moviel, Vineyard and Kunz all met their potential. But they didn’t.

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 8:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Awesome

in comparison to any draft the Mets have had under Omar Minaya was the point. de Dekker is a potential 4th OF who struck out 28 times in 104 ab’s with 0 homers. Harvey, Vaughn and Morris all have big potential, Forsythe MIGHT be able to be a big league backstop (2010 was a disaster for him).

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 7:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Also

every team in baseball has guys who “may” be good. Guys like Satin, Cohoon, Ratliff, Allen… maybe they make it and maybe they don’t but they aren’t upper tier prospects. Havens could be but he is ALWAYS hurt. Holt is looking more and more like a potential middle-reliever (if that), Kirk could be a solid MLB regular. The guys from the 2005 draft might not be superstars but Pelfrey, Thole, Niese, Parnell, Butera plus Nick Carr (who they still like) is likely a better output than 2010 is going to yield and if it’s not itll be close.

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 7:49 PM EST up reply actions  

"Potential to blow away"

could have been said about 2007 as well had Kunz not been a bust, had Rustich proven he could stay healthy, had Moviel (compared to Chris Young at the time) and Vineyard (compared to Glavine at the time) “made it”. Lots of drafts might have “potential to be better” but the Mets got a starting catcher, 2/5 of their rotation and a setup man for the 2011 season out of the 2005 draft. Right now 2008 has Ike Davis and a whole lot of “lets hope”. Holt received very poor reviews in the AFL before being pulled and Kirk had a HORRIBLE second half to his season, a weak AFL and major concerns about his k/bb. I’m not shitting on our own guys just facing the facts.

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 7:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Ike Davis and Reese Havens

have the potential to post a greater collective WAR than Pelfrey, Niese, Thole and Parnell combined. Yes, Havens has to stay healthy, but I’d rather have the possible all-star than the guaranteed WAR 2 player.

"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel

by Russ on Nov 20, 2010 8:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Reese

Haven’s also has the injury history to suggest he never plays in the majors. Just last month they were saying he might need back surgery. Sure Havens has more upside than Thole or Parnell but they are actual MLB players while Havens is no sure thing. Arguing upside vs. “safe” is a totally different argument. Of course we would prefer “upside” but odds are against players in the minors being as good as MLB players that have already “made it”

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm pretty much in agreement

Most drafts (after which you sign the players) look good right away, when the players and still molten blobs of potential. It’s only later on that they settle into their roles as Chris Donnels or Jeff Duncan.

by tmu on Nov 21, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

So do I win if I say

I want upside in a guy whose downside is 2 wins?

Pretty sure its teams with low payrolls that need to take chances on the star-or-bust kind of players, while the high payroll teams can turn a steady supply of low salary 2-3 win players into stars and even superstars almost at will.

by Jack Str on Nov 21, 2010 9:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I know why they did

When R.A. Dickey was asked Wednesday if he had an opinion on some teammates not going, he said, "I do have thoughts on that. I don’t want to make them public." He said he had not talked to any of the players who did not attend, but noted that he found the experience worthwhile.

"To be able to look a guy in the eye who doesn’t have arms or legs and say, ‘Thank you,’ that’s a big deal," Dickey said. "I take it personally."

by Mookes7 on Nov 22, 2010 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

So

now basically everyone who was involved with scouting is gone. Omar, Bove, Larson, Bob Johnson, Sandy Johnson and now Terrasas

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 4:43 PM EST reply actions  

Krivsky

is still there. Not sure about Bryan Lambe, who was another long-time Minaya ally.

by Alex Nelson on Nov 20, 2010 5:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Krivsky

obviously didn’t have much say under Omar as apparently he was VERY high on Justin Turner (from his time in Cincy) yet he wasn’t even given a Sept. callup despite CLEARLY earning it. I believe at the end of the year it was reported that Krivsky likely wouldn’t return but as of now he’s still here.

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 5:08 PM EST reply actions  

I kind of hope Krivsky stays on and has some sort of role

he did a nice job in Cincinnati in the short time he was there (Gary Majewski fiasco aside).

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!

by Steve Schreiber on Nov 20, 2010 5:24 PM EST up reply actions  

He

was highly respected from his time with the Twins. Not sure exactly what happened with Omar but like I said he reportedly advocated giving Turner a shot and it didn’t happen which suggests his pull wasn’t all that strong.

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll guess this had everything to do with trying to save face

by hoping to see Tejada throw up a decent month and also being thoroughly unwilling to cut Castillo. You’re right, of course, that it might be a reflection on Krivsky, but I think there were other factors at work.

by Jack Str on Nov 21, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Peter North...

That name sounds familiar. Were you in theater at some time in the 90s?

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Nov 22, 2010 1:58 AM EST up reply actions  

Do we know which scouts get credit for pushing

for seemingly semi useful players like trading for Ollie. Maine, Pagan (getting him back)?

by FrancoTAU on Nov 20, 2010 5:55 PM EST reply actions  

There

is no real way of giving “credit” for each move unless it was made public like Ricco pushing for Frenchy, Krivsky for claiming Turner etc

by Peter North on Nov 20, 2010 6:01 PM EST reply actions  

Is d3po making all the personnel decisions or is this a Alderson move?

Roy Smith is clearly a d3po hire but I’m wondering if Alderson is letting him clean house

Freedom is a road seldom traveled by the multitudes...

by Major on Nov 20, 2010 7:26 PM EST reply actions  

Come on, guys!

“Prodigal son?” Someone who is “prodigal” is a spendthrift, not a prodigy. The parable of the prodigal son in the new testament is about a wealthy kid who spends all of the money his father gives him and is forced to live as a swineherd.

You could call it the “penultimate” parable, if you wanted to misuse the word “penultimate” again.

by jmbrill on Nov 20, 2010 11:24 PM EST reply actions  

Nevermind

I see that he used to work for them back in the day, this makes a little more sense now.

by jmbrill on Nov 20, 2010 11:30 PM EST up reply actions  

wat

Official Member of The Ancient Mystic Society of No Melo
Official Member of the "DO NOT TRADE DERRICK FAVORS" Movement

"Sabmet are bringing sexy back. Get it? They are bringing sports entertainment times (x is times in math) your interest level in the game. The more sabmet you use, the more interest you garnett"-reader from pinstripe alley

by Gina on Nov 21, 2010 6:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Grady Fuson

what are his drafts like? this all assumes the Mets won’t adhere to the slot system of course….

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Nov 21, 2010 3:35 PM EST reply actions  

The Mets won't adhere to the slot system

"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel

by Russ on Nov 21, 2010 5:29 PM EST up reply actions  

From the few chapters I've read in Moneyball thus far,

Fuson sounds like he’s from the old school scouting side of things. Billy Beane fired him after they took a HS pitcher in the first round in 2001 (Jeremy Bonderman).

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!

by Steve Schreiber on Nov 21, 2010 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Bonderman was taken without Beane's permission.

forgot to mention that.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!

by Steve Schreiber on Nov 21, 2010 6:19 PM EST up reply actions  

you would hope not Russ

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Nov 21, 2010 5:30 PM EST reply actions  

It has already been stated by Sandy Alderson

Check out this blog post with a video interview of Sandy saying:

We have gotten to the point where not only big market clubs are going over slot, but small market clubs are going over slot, and they see it as a competitive advantage. I don’t think we can be left behind in that regard. I think that we’ve got to be open minded about it, and we intend to be.

"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel

by Russ on Nov 21, 2010 7:54 PM EST up reply actions  

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