FanPost

Carlos Beltran's Fate

I've been trying to get a handle on Carlos Beltran's projection for the 2011 season. What you think Beltran will be able to do on the field and how reliable you think your projection is has a great deal to do with whether you think the Mets should trade Beltran or keep him.

How you interpret Beltran's 2010 season when his slash line was an unimpressive .255/.341/.427/768 also greatly affects whether you think Alderson should deal him. Several posters in another thread felt Beltran had taken a month or so of necessary, personal, on-field spring training after his return to action July 15, 2010. His stats from July 15 through August 15 support that thesis: .219/.306/.333/640 (BABIP .260) are not the numbers of a healthy, Hall of Fame caliber centerfielder. Others have pointed to his strong September, when he was able to take the field for 21 games and put up an impressive .321/.365/.603/.967 (BABIP .328), as evidence that the Beltran of old was back. I was less impressed, though, after I broke down the latter part of Beltran's season in a few different ways:

September 1 - September 21 .283/.323/.467/.790 (BABIP .306)
September 22- September 28 .444/.500/1.056/1.556 (BABIP .417)
August 22 - September 21 .258/.327/.404/.731 (BABIP .276)

Using exactly and only September, and pointing to that as any kind of real evidence that Beltran had fully or at least largely recovered is a mistake, as that perfectly arbitary period conceals the fact that almost all of his excellent production came in a mere five games over a period of only seven days. Now those five games certainly did happen and are an indisputable part of the record. My point instead is that they aren't useful evidence that Beltran largely recovered, but rather tells us only that he was capable of hitting both well and in remarkable luck over all of 20 plate appearances. Following those 20 plate appearances, as we know, inflammation directly related to Beltran's injury and surgery sent him to the bench in the middle of the September 28th game and ended his season. To bet, then, that Beltran is back to his best form is to put million-dollar chips on a stretch of 20 plate appearances.

As a Mets fan who thinks that a series of modest, intelligent moves and acquisitions will have the Mets in contention in 2011, I'd rather see a GM like, say, Chicago's Kenny Williams gamble on Beltran's upside while the Mets use the salary relief they can get against the total of $18.5m (including $5.5m deferred) due Beltran in 2011 to acquire a more reliable player, albeit one likely to have less upside. My guess is that Beltran would bring back between $5m and $7m in salary relief (and if so, no prospect to speak of), which would go a fair way towards acquiring a solid 2Bman or a mid-rotation starter.

The problem with keeping Beltran and seeing how he plays next season is obvious. If he's not good, the Mets won't get anything for him, and will have missed the opportunity to get real value for him. On the other hand, if he's merely good, he'll be worth two to three wins, which is what I'm hoping the Mets can get back by trading him this offseason. The problem is, if Beltran is merely good, and you wait to mid-season to trade him, you get a return commensurate with those two to three wins, but pro rated, meaning you get around a win and a quarter of value at that point. It's only if Beltran has a very strong season that it will be worth it to keep him, but that's less likely to happen in the NL than it is in the AL. Unfortunately, the Mets don't have a DH slot for Carlos. That's why he's more valuable (and will yield better overall value if he's moved) to an AL team that can keep him in the batting order without having to send him out to the field. His durability is a real issue, and there's obviously a good chance his durability will suffer from having to play the field in addition to hit.

So, I'm very interested in finding out if there's a consensus with regard to how we project Carlos Beltran to play in 2011, and whether I'm as much in the minority as I suspect I am in believing that Alderson should get a solid return for Beltran while he can, the better to move the 2011 Mets towards contention.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process.