Alternative title: How many wins in 2011 if Moneyball East stands pat?
Using only the current 40-man roster, I put together my preferred 2011 Mets team and estimated their wins above replacement (WAR). Non-40's, such as Mike O'Connor, are ignored. Also, John Maine will likely be non-tendered, so he is not included. A hunch says Sean Green will return. Minaya mistakes Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez are featured. Here goes:
The WAR estimates are generally conservative. Some bullet thoughts:
- This looks like a 79-84 win team, assuming 48 wins for a replacement level squad. If one of the stars returns to 2006-2008 form, add a win or two.
- More than 25 players are listed to fill out plate appearance and inning requirements. Injuries happen.
- I'm pessimistic on Johan. If he throws even one effective inning next year I'll be pleased.
- Angel Pagan is preferable in center but Carlos Beltran is listed there in deference to the legend.
Jason Pridie is a non-factor at the plate but has been terrific defensively in the minors. Injuries cut short is 2010 though, and I don't exactly know what the plan for him is going forward. I like a strong defensive reserve outfielder on the roster -- Pridie gets the nod over Chris Carter.
Luis Hernandez is one of two capable backup shortstops on the 40-man. Hence, he exists. Ruben Tejada should play shortstop for Triple-A Buffalo. I am optimistic on Lucas Duda but think he should spend most of 2011 in the minors.
There's plenty more to say but roster changes are (hopefully) coming. I'll save my breath. This team can contend in 2011. A projection to make the playoffs is a reach, but some shrewd moves this offseason would keep them in contention.