Food Coma 40-Man WAR
by James Kannengieser on Nov 26, 2010 6:00 AM EST
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PrintAlternative title: How many wins in 2011 if Moneyball East stands pat?
Using only the current 40-man roster, I put together my preferred 2011 Mets team and estimated their wins above replacement (WAR). Non-40's, such as Mike O'Connor, are ignored. Also, John Maine will likely be non-tendered, so he is not included. A hunch says Sean Green will return. Minaya mistakes Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez are featured. Here goes:
The WAR estimates are generally conservative. Some bullet thoughts:
- This looks like a 79-84 win team, assuming 48 wins for a replacement level squad. If one of the stars returns to 2006-2008 form, add a win or two.
- More than 25 players are listed to fill out plate appearance and inning requirements. Injuries happen.
- I'm pessimistic on Johan. If he throws even one effective inning next year I'll be pleased.
- Angel Pagan is preferable in center but Carlos Beltran is listed there in deference to the legend.
- Jason Pridie is a non-factor at the plate but has been terrific defensively in the minors. Injuries cut short is 2010 though, and I don't exactly know what the plan for him is going forward. I like a strong defensive reserve outfielder on the roster -- Pridie gets the nod over Chris Carter.
- Luis Hernandez is one of two capable backup shortstops on the 40-man. Hence, he exists. Ruben Tejada should play shortstop for Triple-A Buffalo. I am optimistic on Lucas Duda but think he should spend most of 2011 in the minors.
There's plenty more to say but roster changes are (hopefully) coming. I'll save my breath. This team can contend in 2011. A projection to make the playoffs is a reach, but some shrewd moves this offseason would keep them in contention.
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"This team can contend in 2011." Yup. I've been flogging this in a few threads, and
It would be a shame if the fanbase fell for some Wilpon-bred rebuilding nonsense.
“A projection to make the playoffs is a reach, but some shrewd moves this offseason would keep them in contention.”
This is the minimum I expect from Alderson. Losing Santana is obviously a blow, but should be more than made up for by not having Manuel and several hundred replacement level players (including the three fifths of the lineup that was around replacement level) clogging the roster. I put the Mets at around 83-85 wins. 3-5 more get them to what I’m figuring the minimum to steadily contend should be, a true talent 88 win squad.
Of course the team can compete
The Mets are always good on paper. But they just lack that last gear. Its not like Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and Bay are horrible. They just don’t play to the best of their abilities for whatever reason and rarely seem to get hot at the same time.
That is one young and inexperienced bench and one atrocious bullpen. But still, fairly interesting if used properly.
damn you for making me log-in on someone else's computer
but I have to respond to this.
I don’t understand how you can possibly look at that roster above, and then blame Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and Bay (well, maybe Bay) for them not competing. They are surrounded by DRECK. The Mets are only as good as they are because of those players, and are as mediocre-to-bad as they are not because those guys “don’t get hot at the same time” but because 4 good players doesn’t make for a good team.
2009 Did Not Happen
by cjmulrain on Nov 26, 2010 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
A standing ovation for you, sir.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 26, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
This made me laugh
but really needs a sound track for maximum humor.
I don't think it was really his intent to blame the core.
In 2011, they could perform better than this year and surrounded by not-trash players, we would have a good team.
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Not Jerry Manuel = +1 to 5 WAR
What prospects do you guys envision being called up midseason?
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IF Reese Havens can stay healthy (that’s quite a big if too) and 2B remains ‘meh’, I think its a possibility we see him. If Beltran gets dealt at the deadline or something, Captain Kirk (Nieuwenhuis) could be another possibility. Mejia (in a starter role of course).. and probably a few different relievers and bench players.
I agree that the evolution of our farm system will make a difference
But rather than making bold predictions about who will or will not be on the roster, Page seems to be merely calculating the value of the team if nothing changes at all.
by TheBigStapler on Nov 26, 2010 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
You mean James, right?
This is not to expect immediate production from the farm, but mostly an educated guess based on farm development and ML weakness. Talking about prospects wouldn’t change the total WAR projection.
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Expecting Havens to come up mid-season when doesn't even have 100 PA's above single A
or expecting Mejia when he doesn’t even have 100 innings (as a starter) above single A is misguided to say the least
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
more like +5 to 10 WAR
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 27, 2010 8:10 AM EST up reply actions
who the hell is
Manuel Alvarez
"I bet you'd lobby her, you horny 15 year old!" -Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan
A non-prospect but someone who could turn out to be a cheap and averagely effective arm out of the pen.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
trade David Wrongz!! clearly he's the problem! (*Sarcasm*)
manny alvarez is a 24 year old righty who can probably be a decent-good bullpen guy. One of many hard throwing Latin American prospects in the system. Good grief, what a hittless 25-man roster this team is….it’s a miracle this team won any games at all last season. If healthy (there are those magic words again) this team should/could be 84-86 win team….
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
A hitless roster which if healthy should win 84-86 games?
Maybe with the ’86 pitching rotation. :)
Let me be the first (in this thread) to say it will get worse before it gets better. I love the Mets, but this is NOT a roster that can contend in the NL East.
If we could get something for “nothing” (i.e., $$$) we might be able to make significant additions via free agency at 2B and 2 slots in the starting rotation. But we can’t trade our way better (nothing to trade except stuff we need to even tread water, no over-strengths to deal from to rearrange talent) and nothing suggests we have been playing under par for our talent the last few years — we are what our record is, a 79-win team.
The ways to improvement all involve patience. I don’t advocate “TRAID THE CORE” since the core is, really, one guy and I’d prefer to enjoy him in a Met uniform over the next few seasons while we rebuild from the bottom.
The Wilpons can go out and create added value by spending lots of money and I won’t complain, but absent that happening I think we are at 1980 right now. 1984 will come, if the Alderson Regime is what we hope it is, but not quickly and indeed probably right along the same timeline.
well, at least you read it right lol. (sigh, I gotta check for the typos)
anyhow, I’m just trying to be overly optimistic… I don’t think this team has a shot at all with Johan out most of 2011, and the Drecks of Hitting.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 26, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, just failing based on conservative projections is not like us. We need high expectations and EPIC FAIL.
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yup this for every extra-inning game we've been put through by this franchise...
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 26, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree on two counts
“But we can’t trade our way better (nothing to trade except stuff we need to even tread water,…”
Sure we can. It depends on the offer and what we’re willing to give up. You might not want to make the deal, but a middle of the pack farm system certainly has more than enough talent to pick up a decent starter and then some.
“…no over-strengths to deal from to rearrange talent)…” If this GM couldn’t find a way to turn the plethora of modest talent the Mets have at the corners into a decent ML 2bman, he needs to find another line of work.
I wonder how Alderson sees Duda. I guess we’ll find out.
Jeter?
Just for fun-offer Jeter one year at 17 if he will play 2nd base.
Though for 17 mil we could pick up a decent starter, a decent 2bman,
an some depth in the OF. I’d much, much rather have that than Jeter. Pretty sure the Yankees FO would too.
I thought you were talking about
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It's more about playing time
If Bay-Beltran-Pagan are around and healthy in 2011, they’ll play just about everyday. At-bats would be hard to come by for Duda.
by James Kannengieser on Nov 26, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
It has been established that Duda will play 2B and will have plenty of AB there.
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That is correct
And the Mets will get Adam Dunn to play SS, and Prince Fielder to catch.
"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel
Dude! Prince Fielder as catcher! You may be smoking hallucinogens!
Fielder is clearly destined to play CF
by ScottfromPeekskill on Nov 27, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Considering he's only shown this sort of power for one year
I’d like to see him do it again in the minors. Not to mention that he has very little time in the outfield.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 26, 2010 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
and Nick Who in CF
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
I don't see many conservative projections in JK's list, unfortunately.
A few optimistic ones, though.
Six of the eight starters seem to be conservative projections
Only Castillo and Reyes don’t appear conservative.
"The Mets are gonna be amazing." - Casey Stengel
Reyes' is only optimistic in that it assumes he stays healthy.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
Negative WAR players too
Every team has negative WAR players over the course of a season too. Penciling in replacement level players at 0 WAR, although the correct technical definition, isn’t realistic. Even the Reds, the team last season with the least amount of negative WAR, had some players contribute about -0.5 WAR. The Mets last season had almost -5 WAR from some players. I’d guess conservatively you could knock off 3 or 4 WAR from below replacement level players.
Contending until the allstar break maybe...
If they do not change the face and feel of the team they are not going to be good next year. This team as presently constituted will keep you interested for the first three months of the season like they’ve done in the recent past, and then quickly fade away in a matter of days. Then we’ll have to deal with another meaningless August and September.
As long as Reyes, Beltran and Wright are the leaders and best players on that team they will not go anywhere, because although those three are very good players, none of them are among the elite in the Majors. They’ve also not shown that they can play well together. They just have poor chemistry. When Delgado was here the chemistry was a little better, like him or not. Now it looks like the top players on this team are all somewhat lost.
As much as I would hate to see Reyes or Wright traded, I think it has to be done, albeit not for simply getting garbage in return. Trading Beltran would be less painful but his value is questionable at best. Jason Bay…noone is gonna want that contract off the year he had.
I think Alderson will somehow arrive to the conclusion that Reyes or Wright must go sometime next year. When this happens and only when this happens, can we truly believe this team will go places.
by Clifford Stclair on Nov 26, 2010 6:37 PM EST reply actions
Sure, blame the good players...
It’s obviously not the fact that there are bad players making up 60-70% of the roster.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Chip Hale as Mets 2011 Manager.
and the only good ones, might I add...
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 27, 2010 8:11 AM EST up reply actions
The mets didn't have bad supporting cast players in 07 and 08 though
And guess what, they still fell short. In 09’ and 10’, yes the supporting cast was weaker, but still, the best players ALL underperformed and NONE of them stepped up when it mattered most. That is tough to ignore.
by Clifford Stclair on Nov 27, 2010 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, Damion Easley was awesome.
"The lesson behind Moneyball is that if you are clever in your use of resources, you can gain power beyond your station. It is not, never has been, and never will be, that 'computer models' should take over the world." - Graham
by Thomas Wachtel on Nov 27, 2010 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
welll, had Billy the Goat Wagner not given up two HRs to weak hitters
things might have turned out differently for this team. oh well. that’s how it goes.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 28, 2010 5:38 AM EST up reply actions
God, I can hardly even look at this roster without crying
We need 3 GM’s just to clean it up
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
We need Saberus!
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
by MookieTheCat on Nov 26, 2010 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
We have 6 GM's now: 2 good, 2 meh and too bad.
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grrr this is unrelated but did anyone have a problem with resigning on to sbnation of late?
I’ve been trying to recall this password and it hasn’t been working. thankfully I can access it on my gaming pc still.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
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