Amazin' Avenue Mets Awards: Worst Relief Pitcher
by Eric Simon on Nov 3, 2010 10:02 AM EDT
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Print"First ask yourself: What is the worst that can happen? Then prepare to accept it. Then proceed to improve on the worst. " -- Dale Carnegie
I was kind of hoping Oliver Perez wouldn't win this award because he's certain to win the Worst Starter award, too, and it would've been nice to mix things up a bit. And in fairness to Ollie, as much as his 13 relief innings were an unmitigated disaster, they were still only 13 innings. Ryota Igarashi tossed 30.1 relief innings and allowed a mind-blowing 24 runs. Fernando Nieve allowed 23 runs and eight home runs in 40 innings. Elmer Dessens struck out just 16 batters in 47 innings. These guys were all worse than Perez when we consider the full breadth of abject uselessness, for as bad as Perez surely was, even 13 truly miserable innings can devalue a man only so much.
After struggling through the first two months as a starter, Perez was placed on the disabled list with an "injury" after refusing an assignment to the minor leagues to work on his "pitching". He made three relief appearances after returning, pitching 4.1 innings of five-run ball between July 17 and August 1. Then, unbeknownst to him, Perez entered double-secret Operation: Shutdown, as he was in bullpen time-out for 28 days before finally being allowed to pitch one inning of a 9-3 rout at the hands of the Braves on August 30. Perez made it into another game just a week later, this time pitching the final two frames in a 13-3 bludgeoning by the Nationals.
After that spurt of activity it was back into Operation: Shutdown, as Perez saw no action for another 26 days. Then, on the season's final day, Perez was brought in to "get things over with" as the Mets and Nationals carried an opposite-of-thrilling 1-1 tie into the 14th inning. He managed to strike out Ian Desmond to lead things off, then this happened:
- Adam Kennedy was hit by a pitch.
- Adam Kennedy stole second.
- Roger Bernadina walked.
- Will Nieves walked.
- Justin Maxwell walked.
That last walk forced in the go-ahead run and brought Jerry Manuel out of the dugout to make what would be the final pitching change of his Mets tenure.
Here is how everyone voted.
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex | Ryota Igarashi | Fernando Nieve | Elmer Dessens |
| Eno | Tobi Stoner | Oliver Perez | Ryota Igarashi |
| Eric | Fernando Nieve | Elmer Dessens | Ryota Igarashi |
| James | Fernando Nieve | Ryota Igarashi | Oliver Perez |
| Joe | Oliver Perez | Fernando Nieve | Ryota Igarashi |
| Mark | Oliver Perez | Elmer Dessens | Ryota Igarashi |
| Matthew | Oliver Perez | Elmer Dessens | Sean Green |
| Rob | Oliver Perez | Ryota Igarashi | Raul Valdes |
| Sam | Fernando Nieve | Elmer Dessens | Ryota Igarashi |
And here is the final vote tally.
| Player | Points |
|---|---|
| Oliver Perez | 15 |
| Fernando Nieve | 13 |
| Ryota Igarashi | 12 |
| Elmer Dessens | 9 |
| Tobi Stoner | 3 |
| Sean Green | 1 |
| Raul Valdes | 1 |
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Comments
LOLie wins!
"There’s talent in these here waters. Alderson just has to clear up the algae around the edges." - RJ Anderson / Fangraphs
by Dandy Salderson on Nov 3, 2010 10:19 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
It's kinda sad that this has been the toughest decision/closest vote yet
When you have 7 guys who can make a legitimate claim on being your worst reliever (and not in the “whole bullpen was so good we can’t pick a worst reliever” kind of way), your team probably had a pretty bad season.
2009 Did Not Happen
ANDYETANDYET
Our pitching really wasn’t turrible, although I think the park helped.
Incidentally, why if we had a much better record at home than on the road does that mean that the park isn’t an issue? If your park is anomalous, wouldn’t you expect some difficulty transitioning out of the park and playing elsewhere? As such, your home/road split could tell you that your park is screwing up your team even if you’re doing pretty well at home, and/or the way you hit/pitch/field is built for an exception and not the norm.
What does it mean again that our xFIP blew
but our ERA was good? Stat people? Our HR/FB was pretty bad, although we didn’t give up a ton of flyballs. What killed our xFIP? K-rate?
Big park, above average defense (surprise)
With these two factors we really should have a better FIP and xFIP than ERA
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 3, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would the big park help xFIP relative to ERA?
Don’t they throw flyballs into the sauce (as a negative relative to GBs)? And I may be misremembering the HR/FB ratio — it may have been decent. So, if you give up a lot of flyballs that might be out of other parks, xFIP would penalize you while reality would not. You’re just hosed on the road — and, we gave up 88 HR on the road and 47 at home, so. . . .
by tmu on Nov 3, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
You answered your own question
xFIP is using an average ratio in its formula, I believe, so having a bigger park is definitely going to lead to a bigger ERA-xFIP split. The Mets’ HR/FB ratio was the 4th best in baseball, so that definitely was a huge reason for the 3.73 ERA-4.30 xFIP split.
Gotcha. Just confirming that the bigger park would lead to a worse xFIP than ERA.
I thought Schmidtxc was saying that with a bigger park, your xFIP should be better than your ERA.
by tmu on Nov 3, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah our pitchers as a whole were pretty bad on the road
even our groundballers
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Tobi Stoner?
How on earth does a guy who pitched in one game back in April get a first place vote in the disaster area that was the Mets bullpen this year? Before I saw that I didn’t even remember him being on the team this year.
I was wondering the same thing.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 3, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
And clearly that someone overheard while sitting in his basement looking at spreadsheets
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 3, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Stoner....
First Prop 19 failing, then this. It’s been a hard day for him.
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
He didn't do enough for prop 19?
by Pack Bringley on Nov 3, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Oh crap.
I should have read one line below before hitting post.
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
Seriously
He pitched 2 innings, gave up 3 hits, a walk, and a run. Ollie could give you that in .1 — if you ignore the unrealistically low walk count.
by Pack Bringley on Nov 3, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually would be interested in an explanation of this
I honestly had no idea he was ever even on the 40-man roster, much less the mound.
"The lesson behind Moneyball is that if you are clever in your use of resources, you can gain power beyond your station. It is not, never has been, and never will be, that 'computer models' should take over the world." - Graham
by Thomas Wachtel on Nov 4, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
All I could think when voting for this award was that the Mets
were the only team in baseball with a 24-man roster. Even a below replacement level player is better than a player who essentially doesn’t exist.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Nov 3, 2010 11:11 AM EDT reply actions
My vote would be for Nieve
& it’s made worse that Jerry would continually use him in high-leverage situations.
What's that about?
WHOA WHOA WHOA WHOA WHOA
Do not taint the awesome memory of the REAL Operation Shutdown by associating the name with LOLlie.
by JoshNY on Nov 3, 2010 11:49 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
This.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 3, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Well he was a Pirate.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 3, 2010 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions
My favorite thing about this is
the page about it on the BTF wiki.
As of January 2007, Operation Shutdown is currently in its 58th month.
"The lesson behind Moneyball is that if you are clever in your use of resources, you can gain power beyond your station. It is not, never has been, and never will be, that 'computer models' should take over the world." - Graham
by Thomas Wachtel on Nov 4, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd put Nieve over Perez, just by virtue of him actually being a reliever,
as opposed to Ollie being whatever he is nowadays.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 3, 2010 12:08 PM EDT reply actions
It pains me ...
to even see the name “Oliver Perez” on this forum. Can’t we just please put him in The Vault until he’s gone. Then we can all celebrate.
"Never throw a slider to The Glider."
- Ed Charles, No. 5
"Who has more fun than people?"
- Ralph Kiner
...if only...to Dream the Impossible Dream
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 3, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Sell him to Disney!
I hear they have a pretty big vault.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 3, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Whoever gave Valdes a vote ought to be removed from this voting.
The dude was insanely unlucky, but his numbers against lefties were really really good and he put forth a number of solid long relief outings for us.
To call him one of our worse relievers, in a season with Green, Dessens, Nieve, Igarashi and even Oli is just plain stupid.
I don't recall Valdez having much of a platoon split, but you think Valdes
could fill in for Feliciano as our LOOGY? That’s if we still get him next season, with however his contract works, with us borrowing him, or whatever.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 3, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
as much as I think Valdes is a capable long man...no he can't fill Feliciano
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Valdes did well against lefties.
>11 K/9
<2 BB/9
1.7 HR/9 (16.7 HR/FB)
3.70 FIP 2.78 xFIP
He wasn’t good against righties, but still.
oh I agree.
Valdes had one or two tough outings, but most of them were very good. I think Green on the list makes sense, since he sucks health or not.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
i voted for valdes
he allowed a .330 batting average against to lefties with a .991 OPS, if that’s “really really good” i’d hate to see what’s bad. i researched these votes a lot so i hope you can back up your bold statement because i certainly can:
the only one of those guys in the discussion for me is nieve as i voted for perez and igarashi, dessens posted solid (if mediocre) results and green only pitched 9 innings so it is in fact stupid to compare his net negative impact to the rest of these guys. so we’re looking at nieve vs. valdes.
not only was he very hittable against lefties, but while valdes had the worst inherited runners strand rate on the Mets, he was also among the very worst in the league with a 46% strand rate (11 of 24 guys scored). compare that to just 15% from nieve (just 4 of 26 scored). league average was 31%. so yeah, valdes allowed nearly half of the guys he inherited to score; hard to defend a reliever after that.
now you might argue that this was a result of nieve starting a lot more innings whereas valdes had to clean up more messes but in fact nieve’s OPS against the leadoff batter of the inning was .475 (.611 for his first batter faced, leadoff or not). valdes on the other hand sported a .615 when starting an inning (.750 for the first batter starting the inning or not). so it didn’t matter if valdes came in to start the inning or not, he had worse results.
in high leverage spots nieve posted a .746 OPS against, valdes .865. in appearances where it was a tie game nieve posted an OPS against of .470 while valdes had an OPS of .633.
as far as the “solid long relief outings” you pointed out, valdes had ten appearances where he pitched 1+ innings and didn’t allow a run. nieve pitched eight such appearances. needless to say nieve had a hell of a lot more 1 IP, 0 ER appearances. valdes also allowed 3 or more earned runs in six appearances while nieve had four.
i called valdes one of our worsT relievers because he was, nearly any way you slice it. if you don’t see that then either you’re not looking hard enough or you don’t get the numbers. i know the common perception among fans was that nieve was a time bomb while valdes was a solid stopgap but in this case the perception was wrong. and if you watched the games you could see it pretty clearly, valdes is a classic junkballer; he has very little stuff and even less velocity and he doesn’t even throw strikes like fellow junkballer elmer dessens. i’ll give you that it might be close between nieve and valdes but either way, it’s not “just plain stupid” like you so eloquently stated.
and citing luck for relievers is pointless, the short-sampled nature of their roles means that except for the elites every reliever is affected by luck year to year (this is why so many relievers seem to go hot and cold from season to season) so for the most part all we can be concerned with are the results. plus, valdes xFIP was 4.69 while his ERA was 4.91, doesn’t sound that unlucky to me.
should i still be removed from the voting?
by Rob Castellano on Nov 4, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes....
Because you voted against the team’s best hitter.
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
You present a good case.
"The lesson behind Moneyball is that if you are clever in your use of resources, you can gain power beyond your station. It is not, never has been, and never will be, that 'computer models' should take over the world." - Graham
by Thomas Wachtel on Nov 4, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
elmer DECENT.....
you may not like his “stuff” but elmer dessens was a solid stop-gap for a flailing team after the all start break. it wasn’t until mid-september that the jig was up, and for someone his age i think he did remarkably well.
definitely not the worst. who cares how many strike outs he gets- it’s how many runs he allows that matter most.
i also disagree with disparaging tobi stoner.
I'll guess
that it’s his 1:1 K/BB ratio that got him so much hate…though some of his other stats look decent enough and I absolutely wouldn’t put him in the same stratosphere of ineptitude as Ollie or Igarashi.
"If this doesn't light your fire, men, the pilot light is out."
by Lonborg and champagne, Ollie and vodka on Nov 3, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Dessens isn't a great reliever...
But he equitted himself better than some of the bloggers did in casting their votes in this contest. If there’s a first place vote for Stoner, there should have been two for Green, and Elmer didn’t even belong in the discussion.
Let's consult the matrix, shall we...
Dessens didn’t give up a lot of runs by some miracle, but that 1:1 K/BB ratio is ugly. According to the matrix, Bad Process plus Good Result equals Dumb Luck. Elmer Dessens was not good…he was not even decent. He was totally lucky all season (and last season too). Now we’re the lucky ones…we shouldn’t have to see him pitch ever again in a Mets’ uniform. And that’s not dumb luck, either. That’s deserved success!
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 3, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't believe
this is the first time I’ve seen that matrix.
"The lesson behind Moneyball is that if you are clever in your use of resources, you can gain power beyond your station. It is not, never has been, and never will be, that 'computer models' should take over the world." - Graham
by Thomas Wachtel on Nov 4, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Remember at one point in the season
when Ollie was average more BB/9 than Cliff Lee was averaging per 5 seasons? Maybe it was BS but it made me laugh.
I seem to remember that in one of his ill-fated starts
Ollie walked more batters than Lee had since he won the Cy Young, or something like that.
"The lesson behind Moneyball is that if you are clever in your use of resources, you can gain power beyond your station. It is not, never has been, and never will be, that 'computer models' should take over the world." - Graham
by Thomas Wachtel on Nov 4, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Nieve actually had some good appearances in April
where Ollie had no good appearances. Nieve threw almost everyday in April and at 1st got some outs and was alright, but then really couldn’t do anything after that. Valdes was similar with some good long relief and then a good start. then he went to SD and got rocked and never seemed to throw a good innning again
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
My Vote
Voting for Ollie Pee, is like kicking a man when he’s down. Ollie wasn’t really part of the team this season, so my vote goes to Igarashi who was dreadful virtually everytime he pitched.
For $36 million dollars...
I’ll lie down and be kicked a few times. I think the true disappointment with him was his resistance to take advice that was intended to help him get back to some barely adequate baseline. He refused to go to the minors and was clearly not capable of pitching in the majors, which left the team with a choice between getting rid of him and paying him to sit on the beach somewhere, or keep him on the roster, taking a roster spot that could have been used for someone else, while being fairly sure that no value whatsoever would be realized.
It’s ok to kick him.
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
by MookieTheCat on Nov 3, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
especially with his lousy pissy attitude
if he TRIED and shut up about being a POS, then I wouldn’t hate him as much…I guess.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Nov 4, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Dessens was unfairly maligned above...
Sure his K rate was completely out of wack, but he usually got the job done somehow. While he’s probably going to regress over time if he keeps putting up that number, why not congratulate him on improbably being not awful?
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
Poor Elmer
no love for his shiny ERA
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
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