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Amazin' Avenue Book Club: Moneyball, Chapter Four

If Chris Young is indeed signed, the Mets would be represented by five of the eight Ivy League schools:

  • Harvard -- Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta
  • Dartmouth -- Sandy Alderson
  • Princeton -- Chris Young
  • Columbia -- Gary Cohen
  • Yale -- Ron Darling

To carry the flag for Penn, Mark DeRosa or the retired Doug Glanville could be signed. For Cornell, there's Jon Daniels. And for Brown, maybe the Mets can hire a psychology PhD or something. Here is Chapter Four: Field Of Ignorance.

Star-divide

Chapter Four's alternate title could be "The Story Of Bill James" or "The Assassination Of Bill James By The Coward Elias Sports Bureau". A cynical, arrogant and intelligent man named Bill James starts researching and writing about baseball in the late 1970s. He goes on to become the face of sabermetrics, the analysis of baseball through objective evidence.

The chapter focuses on James's groundbreaking research and his struggle to gain acceptance in the mainstream baseball community. He ruffles some feathers with his studies on clutch hitting, in-game strategy and other concepts long thought understood by the establishment. As the audience for his annual "Abstract" increases, his critics increase in number and intensity. He is viewed as an "outsider", and his valuable work is largely ignored by the "insiders". James becomes angrier and more frustrated. A couple excerpts from his final 1988 Baseball Abstract:

I am encountering more and more of my own readers that I don't even like, nitwits who glom onto something superficial in the book and misunderstand its underlying message.... Whereas I used to write one 'Dear Jackass' letter a year, I now write maybe thirty.

And one of my favorite James lines:

It is a wonderful thing to know that you are right and the world is wrong.

Who among us has never felt that way?

What James didn't realize is that Sandy Alderson had read all of the Abstracts. The Oakland A's were familiar with his work and expanded upon it using their own team of researchers. And as many already know, James was eventually hired by the Red Sox and now has a pair of World Series rings.

Other sabermetric innovators and proponents are covered in Chapter Four, including Branch Rickey, Allan Roth, Earnshaw Cook, Eddie Epstein, Dick Cramer, Pete Palmer, Rob Neyer, Craig Wright and Dan Okrent. Let's go to the discussion questions.

Mets-centric appearances/mentions in Chapter Four:

  • N/A

Discussion questions:

1. Have you read any of Bill James's work? Love him, hate him, or somewhere in between?

2. Who are your favorite saber-inclined writers?

3. James writes (as conveyed by Michael Lewis in Chapter Four):

I think, really, that this is one reason that so many intelligent people drift away from baseball (when they come of age), that if you care about it at all you have to realize, as soon as you acquire a taste for independent thought, that a great portion of the sport's traditional knowledge is ridiculous hokum.

I disagree with this -- the more I learn about the game the more I love it. But maybe he's right. What do you think?

4. Do you use the acronym "SABR" (Society Of American Baseball Research) interchangeably with "saber"?

5. Bill James's wife says in Chapter Four that if she knew the extent of Bill's baseball obsession when they started dating, their relationship might not have gotten very far. Without getting too specific, has baseball (or sports in general) obsession interfered with a close relationship? Has it aided a relationship?

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I always imagined that James was a dry writer of statistics until I read this chapter.

Now i’m tempted to finally read some of his books. Are the outdated references going to be too annoying to overcome?

I stopped watching baseball as a young man mainly because of discovering women, college years and the Mets stinking in the 90s for too long. The late 90s Mets brought me back because they were good and I learned the perfect balance of neglecting women just enough to work baseball back into my life.

When I was a little kid ages 9 to 12ish, I was obsessed with stats on baseball cards and in the papers. I quickly learned that half of these so called important stats were silly. I thought I discovered that OBP was a much better stat than BA. In hindsight, I guess there were thousands of others lol. I still watched ~200 games a year until I was 18.

by FrancoTAU on Nov 30, 2010 1:20 AM EST reply actions  

Dont be fooled

He is pretty dry.

"There’s talent in these here waters. Alderson just has to clear up the algae around the edges." - RJ Anderson / Fangraphs

by Dandy Salderson on Nov 30, 2010 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Start with

either the New Historical Abstract or his book on the Hall of Fame. (The original version was called The Politics of Glory; I forgot what the new version was retitled.) This way you can read what is more of an overview of baseball history and less about why the Indians sucked in 1983. I did once have a book called This Time Let’s Not Eat the Bones, which was a collection of his Abstract essays with the number crunching taken out. I don’t know if it’s still in print.

What's the score, boys?
What did Bugs Bunny do?
What's with the Carrot League baseball today?

by StorkFan on Nov 30, 2010 11:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I picked up The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract recently

and so far my favorite thing is the picture of a man on page 38, which has the caption, “This man played more than 1,000 major league games, and is mentioned only once in passing in this book. And none of you has any idea who he is.” How awesome is that?

by EricAColucci on Nov 30, 2010 2:49 AM EST reply actions  

I'll answer number 1 and 3 in one long reply.

I do enjoy learning about the game through advanced metrics and the methods of scouting like pitch f/x; I find it reveals much more about players and restrains me from being inclined to make a knee-jerk reaction. I actually got my first exposure to Bill James from a book I received in 7th grade from a WWII vet involved with my Boy Scout troop. He heard I liked baseball, and a copy of the 1983 Bill James Baseball Abstract was in my hands the next week. I, being 12 years old, read it and hated it. All I remembered from that book was that there were a ton of numbers I didn’t comprehend and a lot of Mets were really low on his positional rankings, so I just thought he was a Mets hater and went on my teenage way.

While I disagree with James’ premise about intelligent people drifting away from the game, I will concede that once you develop an appreciation for sabermetrics it can make baseball conversations very troublesome with certain people, even in my case members of my own family. I really have to fight myself to not be a condescending jerk to people I like and anyone in general who accuse me of being clueless about baseball because I dared to say that Felix Hernandez deserved the Cy Young and not C.C. Sabathia. An analogy would like Galileo being ignored and hated much like whenever I talk sabermetrics or attempt to do so with certain people. They think what I’m arguing is tantamount to blasphemy in baseball circles and that I’m trying to ruin the game when I really enjoy it immensely. It’s funny because there’s a faction in my family of baseball fans: the older people are much more swayed by the traditional stats, but the younger people (including my cousin who introduced me to Fire Joe Morgan and got me started on a sabermetric kick) are much more SABR oriented. It’s gotten to the extent that I don’t even look at the “traditional” stats first on baseball-reference anymore when I seek a player’s numbers. I immediately go to WAR and OPS+ for players and WHIP and ERA+ for pitchers.

There will always be a chasm between sabermetrics and the baseball “purists”. Ironically enough, as much as I have benefited from various Bill James formulas and analysis, I really do not want to become arrogant and bitter over baseball statistics. I can certainly understand why he would be so egotistical since people treated him like shit for so long, but I don’t want to have resentment for people over baseball analysis. It’s not an end-all for me.

by Five-Tool Tool on Nov 30, 2010 5:28 AM EST reply actions  

God bless my wife

She puts up with a lot of sports watching on my part, including wrestling of all things (oddly the one sports-related thing that she has even moderately gotten into). My only recompense is the occasional romantic comedy.

I read the James Abstract from 2000 or so, and enjoyed it. He’s a good writer, and I guess I don’t remember it being overly stuffy or arrogant. As to my favorite saber-inclined writer, it has to be Joe Posnanski. Is there really any other choice?

by dcmetsfan on Nov 30, 2010 9:00 AM EST reply actions  

Yes, Posnanski is the best

In terms of purely stat guys, there isnt much anymore. I like Fangraphs, but those are quick hits. I like Zajayerly still, but he doesnt write that often.

For those of you who werent into this type of thing back around 1998 – 2002 or so, the original Baseball Prospectus was amazing. Really, amazing writers, amazing analysis… those guys were incredible. DO NOT confuse that with the borefest of the same name that is out there today. The original crew – Pappas, Law, Huckabay, Sheehan (before he was pompous), Kahrl (when she was a he) and Jazayerly… I might be forgetting some of them, but these guys were provocative, interesting, great writers and always had something new to say. I think they just ran out of ideas somewhere along the way. It has been really sad watching the slow decay of that site. But those were the people who really opened my eyes to a new way of thinking about baseball.

"There’s talent in these here waters. Alderson just has to clear up the algae around the edges." - RJ Anderson / Fangraphs

by Dandy Salderson on Nov 30, 2010 10:27 AM EST up reply actions  

About the marriage thing

My wife and I were married in 2007. While we were first dating I didn’t even have cable TV and I still had dialup at home so I rarely watched sports outside of the occasional game at Shea when I was back in NYC during the summer or a football game in a sports bar. Then we moved to NYC and got cable. Imagine her surprise when I got back into my old sports-watching habits. Prior to the 2005 season I warned her about not seeing me for a few months, and she took it well. Frankly, I think that when you live with someone for years having different hobbies/interests keeps you from driving one another nuts, and while she may have had an acclimation period, it’s been a good thing overall.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Nov 30, 2010 9:38 AM EST reply actions  

I got married in the summer of 2006

And that year, I went into September TIED for 1st place in my fantasy league. It would drive her nuts that I would stare at the computer all night, every night for the final week of the season. She has become a bit more tolerant, and I think she gets that there are worse vices a man can have.

"There’s talent in these here waters. Alderson just has to clear up the algae around the edges." - RJ Anderson / Fangraphs

by Dandy Salderson on Nov 30, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

That last point is a big part of it.

As my wife explained to a friend of ours: if he’s on that Mets blog (meaning AA) I can be just about 100% sure he’s not talking to other women.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Nov 30, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Even if she didn't.

Let’s be honest. This is a website where people discuss the minutiae of a game that many find boring, and that does not involve (i) fixing up a house, (ii) living in an artificially barren environment where you are supposed to be starving but there is enough power and food for camera crews, (iii) designing ugly clothing quickly to be judged by a panel of a**holes, (iv) cooking cake or other food quickly to be judged by a**holes, (v) predictable singing and/or dancing by amateurs being judged by a**holes or people on drugs, or (vi) ice skating. Given my experience with my wife and her friends, it’s not too much of a leap of logic to figure out the gender demographics of this place, Gina and a few others excepted.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Nov 30, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Yah, that sums it up

Although I do love Survivor.

Re (iv), check out this show: Bitchin’ Kitchen. One of the few we can watch together.

"There’s talent in these here waters. Alderson just has to clear up the algae around the edges." - RJ Anderson / Fangraphs

by Dandy Salderson on Nov 30, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I've never read Bill James

I’ve actually only started down this path recently. I read Moneyball a couple of years ago and it was a cool story. I started getting interested in OPS and WHIP, but really didn’t make anything of it. it was only when I started reading this site last year that I started asking questions about advanced stats.

I read Moneyball again this weekend while on a plane. But this time, I read it from the perspective as Paul DePodesta as the real main character. Hopefully, his computer still has some magic in it.

As for my relationship and baseball, I’ve been fortunate enough that she watches most fo the games with me. And for that, I will forever be grateful to the current announcing team. I know that many on this site have their issues with GKR, but it’s their engaging dialog (whether you agree with them or not) that has made for a happy home during baseball season. 5 years in, she’s even calling balls & strikes now.

by Help!I'maRock! on Nov 30, 2010 12:43 PM EST reply actions  

That's a really good sign, but I think fxcarden's wife wins the baseball wife award

His descriptions during game threads of her screaming profanity at the TV made me pretty jealous. That’s a keeper there.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Nov 30, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually

No disrespect to fxcarden’s wife (who gets a strong honorable mention), but I think MetsFan4Decades wins this award. She’s on here swearing with us.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Nov 30, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

GKR is the only reason I can watch most games.

My wife loves them even if she’s a Yankee fan and really just a casual baseball fan at that who only watched playoff games before me. Otherwise, I’d only get to one or two games a week in the other room before she’s complain that she hasn’t seen me in a week.

by FrancoTAU on Nov 30, 2010 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

she hasn't started swearing at the tv yet

at least not for baseball. she’s a football girl. so it’s kinda funny to watch us take turns yelling at the tv over different sports. at least she gets it.

by Help!I'maRock! on Nov 30, 2010 2:38 PM EST reply actions  

In between watching the Nets give it away for free against the Knicks,

I read this chapter & I found it extremely fascinating & infuriating. The dedication Bill had in finding out how to properly evaluate offense & get his message out despite limited resources is fascinating. Seeing how easily Bill debunked errors as something valuable on defense & seeing it still being used as something useful in measuring a defender(see Derek Jeter) is a bit comical & sad. This quote was crucial & should always be remembered when people try to discount saber with “the old executives used the traditional stats & they worked!”:

The statistics were not merely inadequate; they lied. And the lies they told led the people who ran major-league baseball teams to misjudge their players, and mismanage their games.

What's that about?

by Brian. on Nov 30, 2010 10:41 PM EST reply actions  

Damn it,

I wasn’t finished! The infuriating part about the chapter was the stonewall & later biting of James by the Elias Sports Bureau was awful. A whole bunch of Also, there were a whole gang of idiots in MLB at that time. Why would you just throw away all that free information that would put you at the top of your profession? Throughout the later years, we could see James get more & more pissed off & with good reason. Why bother putting out all that great material when people either don’t get it or just treat you like an afterthought. I think the part at the end with Duquette & his sabermetrician was horrifying & kinda symbolic. Why would someone’s origin(New York) or intelligence piss you off as a ticket holder? Of course, it plays to the whole “nerd,” “they don’t watch with their eyes,” & “they’re taking away my innocence” extremely well. I was always under the impression that Clemens sucked in his final days as a Sox, but a 2.422 K/BB, 242 IP & 7.6 fWAR in his age 34 say otherwise. Didn’t Duquette’s sabermetrician tell Duquette about this or did he just not listen & let Clemens walk anyways?

What's that about?

by Brian. on Nov 30, 2010 11:00 PM EST up reply actions  

And for the discussion questions,

1. I’ve never read any of Bill James’s work. I guess I love him because without his work, we’d still be in the Stone Age when it comes to baseball analysis.
2. I don’t have any favorites in particular, but Jonah Keri is cool.
3. The more I know, the more I love the game. It’s always cool to continue to learn and understand a subject that you love.
4. Nope, I only use “saber.”
5. Nope.

Some of my other favorite quotes were:

Pretty girls tend to be insufferable because, being pretty, their faults are too much tolerated. Possessions entrap men, and wealth paralyzes them.

Turner is the man Steinbrenner dreams of being.

during the winter I was told something about the Indians’ front office that really shocked me. They’re dumb. You know, not bright, slow.

What's that about?

by Brian. on Nov 30, 2010 11:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Great quotes

Nice job picking those out (Brian., pickin machine!).

I love the part about the meeting with Elias, and the guy from Elias saying “Nobody give a shit about any of this stuff”. That was awesome.

"There’s talent in these here waters. Alderson just has to clear up the algae around the edges." - RJ Anderson / Fangraphs

by Dandy Salderson on Dec 1, 2010 9:11 AM EST up reply actions  

About that last quote

I’m not sure that the Indians FO was dumb. They just wanted to move the team out of Cleveland so they intentionally signed bad players but were foiled by a grission-full manager and….Oh. Wait.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Dec 1, 2010 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

It never gets old.

My wife has never seen it and knows a good 30 lines from it by heart because of me.

by FrancoTAU on Dec 1, 2010 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

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