I did a study of World Series winning managers and found this: not counting player-managers, there were 19 guys who won their first WS with their first team. The average age was 43.4 years old when they won their first WS. There were another 17 who won with their second team. Their average age was 47.8 years old. There were 10 who won their first WS who were on at least their 3rd job with an average age of 56.4 when they won. Of those 10, Alvin Dark had previously won a pennant in his first job and Whitey Herzog's first two jobs were as interim manager for part of one season each time.
What does that tell us about the men the Mets are considering? Backman (51), Hale (45), Oberkfell (54), Teufel (52) and Jauss (53) have not managed in the Bigs before. Only Tommy Lasorda and John Keane were over 50 when they won their first WS with their first team. Keane was in his 4th year managing the Cards when they won in '64. Lasorda was in his 6th year with the Dodgers when they won in '81. Four others were under 40 when they won (Weaver, McKechnie, Kelly and McGraw). And 13 were in their 40s. Greats from this category include Lasorda, Southworth, Schoendienst, Alston, Sparky, Weaver, Tom Kelly and John McGraw. Also Houk, Scioscia, Murtaugh, and Davey.
Clint Hurdle (52) has 8 seasons with Rockies, winning one pennant in 2007. In this category, you have some all-time great managers: Durocher, Mack, Piniella, McCarthy, Huggins, LaRussa, Dick Williams, Leyland along with Gil Hodges, Francona and Charlie Manuel. Hurdle's winning percentage with the Rockies is .461. Miller Huggins' w% in his first job was .455; LaRussa's was .506; Leyland's was .496; Hodges' was .420; Francona's was .440. So yes, most of the guys on this list were very successful in their first gigs, but 4 had losing records and LaRussa's was barely .500.
Terry Collins and Bob Melvin would both fit into the 3+ team category. Of the 8 men who won a WS in this category, Jack McKeon at 73 years old is kind of a fluke, I think. Stengel, Lemon, Torre and Martin all managed the Yankees for their first. Leaving Fred Haney, Bobby Cox (counting his two stints with the Braves as two jobs) and Chuck Tanner. Haney managed the awful St. Louis Browns for 3 years, then the awful Pirates for 3 more before landing a gig with the Braves an dwinning back to back pennants in '57-58. Tanner managed the "We Are Family" Pirates - before that he had one year with the A's and before that 6 with the White Sox.
Between the first two categories, you have a who's who of great managers. I would suggest not counting the Yankees' managers from the 3rd category as their teams were loaded well beyond the Mets' means in today's game. So you have four guys - McKeon, Cox, Tanner and Haney. Of those, Cox is the only one I would describe as a great manager.
So bottom line for me is please don't give me Collins or Melvin. The first-time guys are intriguing. And Hurdle, I think too.