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Alderson Kool-Aid Applesauce - Mets GM talks with blogosphere, Ollie still sucks, Mejia doesn't

Remember him? He could be responsible for our apparent "low standards".


Meet the Mets

Sandy Alderson conversed with several Met bloggers on Friday night, discussing all sorts of issues and basically playing nice with his customers. At least one blogger, however, is expressing concerns about this latest PR move and its implications for independent coverage of the team. Forme contends in the post that the team's fans have incredibly low standards and that they will applaud everything Alderson. Of course, being a blogger at Alderson Avenue, I may not be the most objective person on this. But, I can't help but think Forme is off base on this one. Our expectations are high with the institution of a rational front office. It's probably a little too early in this process to say that the blogs are done as an independent force.

Star-divide

In terms of actual player news, Alderson will likely not get a chance to see Oliver Perez pitch in winter ball, which is probably for the best if he wants to avoid feeling nauseous

In other winter ball news, Jenrry Mejia is throwing well and is planning to spend all of next season in Buffalo. Wilmer Flores is raking. And F! is taking BP, but will not return to his winter league team.

Jon Heyman is reporting that the Mets will hire Dave Hudgens as their new hitting coach

The Mets are talking to Reed Johnson's people.

Apparently a deal between Boston and the Mets involving Carlos Beltran was closer than we were lead to believe.

Greg Prince gets a venue at the New York Times to remind us how prominent a figure Pedro Feliciano has been in recent Met history.

Ted Berg talks with Toby Hyde about the Rule 5 results with Hyde believing that Pedro Beato has the best shot to make the squad.

Around MLB

With the recent passings of two prominent baseball broadcasters, there has been plenty of news surrounding the efforts to honor them. While the Mariners chose the form of a statue to honor Dave Niehaus, one Cubs fan chose the walls of the Red Line Grand Avenue train station to honor Ron Santo with a misspelled graffiti tribute.

Carl Crawford has decided to take his newly signed mega deal with Boston and open up an Antiquarian bookstore in the city.

The Nationals continue to be weirdly involved in the pitching market this offseason.

How is the SEC's experiment with a baseball play clock working out?

Outside MLB

The Metrodome roof collapsed under the weight of a massive snowfall and FOX had video.

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I want Cliff Lee to sign with the Nats. it would suck for the Mets, for sure,

but it would prove to be an interesting run if he did. and Reed Johnson, seriously? not to be mean to Mr. Johnson, but he’s terrible. he’s Cory Sullivan 2.0…

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Dec 13, 2010 9:33 AM EST reply actions  

He's not very good but he's not as bad as Sullivan

Sullivan is pure replacement level.

Johnson is basically Jeff Francoeur with an extra .030 OBP points…mediocre, but not horrible for a bench guy. He’s hit .312/.373/.463 against lefties in 1136 PA, and he’s a good defensive corner outfielder who can play CF a bit.

by psiogen on Dec 13, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

not really. Frenchy can hit homers, Reed?

not so much. if anything, Tony Gwynn Jr. would have been a better 4th OF type. I guess Reed Johnson for $500K isn’t so bad.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Dec 13, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

obviously I'd rather have Reed than Frenchy...but..meh

not really a ringing endorsement of either players.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Dec 13, 2010 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, he's not the first guy I'd pursue

Gwynn, Willie Harris, Jody Gerut, Austin Kearns…there’s a few potentially interesting names out there for the 5th OF slot.

by psiogen on Dec 13, 2010 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Whatever happened to Matt "ginger" Murton?

I heard he absolutely tore up Japan last year. No one in MLB wants to try and sign him?

Also, I thought Evans was our 5th outfielder/back-up 1b, and Duda our 4th outfielder.

by David G on Dec 13, 2010 5:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Crap, too bad

I guess he likes it over there, seems like he’s better than a lot of current starting outfielders in the majors.

by David G on Dec 13, 2010 7:17 PM EST up reply actions  

By Frenchy standards, Reed is better

because he wouldn’t kill so many rallies.

What's the score, boys?
What did Bugs Bunny do?
What's with the Carrot League baseball today?

by StorkFan on Dec 14, 2010 12:45 AM EST up reply actions  

damn looks like carlos isn't much of a trade bait

and if we do trade him by the deadline, it means bad news for this year. the arbitration issue stinks.

by jhMLB on Dec 13, 2010 9:51 AM EST reply actions  

I am still trying to figure out if the Carl Crawford thing is true or not

When I first read teh post on Royals Review I could not help but think how funny those guys were. But it appaesr that this might actually be true?!

Oddest news I have read all month.

by Coolpapabell on Dec 13, 2010 10:03 AM EST reply actions  

I'm pretty sure it's fake.

Just because it can’t possibly be real. Also, I’m pretty sure the guys at RR have finally gone mad from the Frenchy-Cabrera signings.

Thus Spoke Keith Hernandez

"The lesson behind Moneyball is that if you are clever in your use of resources, you can gain power beyond your station. It is not, never has been, and never will be, that 'computer models' should take over the world." - Graham

Twitter: ThomasTSKH

by Thomas Wachtel on Dec 13, 2010 10:25 AM EST up reply actions  

This isn't to say I didn't do a Google search to see whether it was real, of course.

Thus Spoke Keith Hernandez

"The lesson behind Moneyball is that if you are clever in your use of resources, you can gain power beyond your station. It is not, never has been, and never will be, that 'computer models' should take over the world." - Graham

Twitter: ThomasTSKH

by Thomas Wachtel on Dec 13, 2010 10:26 AM EST up reply actions  

LOVE

the idea of the between-innings clock. Not as much a fan of the between pitches clock. I really think the best way to speed up games while also preserving the integrity of a slow-paced sport is to just make a rule that a batter can’t step out of the box once he’s stepped in

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Dec 13, 2010 10:21 AM EST reply actions  

Excuse me?

Kaat was famous for working extremely quickly.

What's the score, boys?
What did Bugs Bunny do?
What's with the Carrot League baseball today?

by StorkFan on Dec 13, 2010 12:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Wouldn't implementing the rule you suggest

without also implementing a pitch clock place the hitter at a major disadvantage?

I love the idea of trying to speed up games, but I worry about it’s affect on in game strategy. A division three coach who has coached a game with the clock posted a response to the SEC. article. He expressed some concern about gamesmanship, such as waiting until the last second to throw a pitch. I am curious to see how it works in practice.

I would like to see faster games. It’s not that I lack the attention span necessary to appreciate a slow game, but I spending 3.5 hours in front of the television is a major time commitment.

by Shomov on Dec 13, 2010 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

I just know that 50 years ago

guys didn’t step out of the box. I watched the final game of the 1952 World Series a few months ago, and nobody stepped out of the box. It’s just unnecessary. Also, I’m not really all that concerned with putting the batter at a disadvantage. I’m also supportive of a much larger strike zone, which would give pitchers more of an advantage and also speed the game up.

There’s other changes I wouldn’t mind seeing as well – for example I don’t think there’s any reason a reliever should have to throw more warmup pitches when he gets to the mound – he should be warm when he leaves the bullpen.

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Dec 13, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

impressive stat

feliciano has been in the 5th most games of players who have been only mets in their careers (behind kranepool, reyes, wright, and someone else whose name i already forgot.)

"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell

by Rey-O on Dec 13, 2010 10:57 AM EST reply actions  

yeah it's unfortunate he has to go

when he was utilized properly (unfortunately that wasn’t always the case) he was lights out.

What Would Matt Szczur Do?

Fact on Villanova Sports

by Hoyadestroya85 on Dec 13, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

i think i found the best high end comparison for wilmer..

vladimir guerrero both seem to make tremendous contact but neither is able to walk a tremendous amount.

What Would Matt Szczur Do?

Fact on Villanova Sports

by Hoyadestroya85 on Dec 13, 2010 11:36 AM EST reply actions  

Except that Flores doesn't have Vlad's speed

"The Mets are gonna be amazing!" - Casey Stengel

by Russ on Dec 13, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

Probably won't be a 40 HR guy either

Hopefully the new regime will get him to work on his plate discipline and then we won’t have to find anomalously low-walk MLB stars to compare him to anymore.

by psiogen on Dec 13, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions  

he does seem to have that

“when he’s on, he’s ON” thing though.

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Dec 13, 2010 12:34 PM EST up reply actions  

anomalously low-walk indeed

There should really be a ban on naming Vlad Guerrero as a “comp” for an unproven prospect. There is basically one player in the history of baseball who ever hit like Vlad Guerrero and succeeded, and his name is Vlad Guerrero. Obvious outliers and sui generis players make poor “comps” — the point of a “comp” is that it’s a name that typifies a career track.

by anonymous on Dec 13, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

eh I think it's too early to make any decisions about Flores's ability to walk

Comparing Cam Newton to other Heisman candidates is like watching the end of Jurassic Park. Sure the velociraptors had been running around causing trouble all movie, but at the end the T-Rex just comes stomping through the wall and annihilates them.- TIP

‎"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed." - Cam Newton
"this fool just went full retard"- Random friend on the above Cam Newton quote

2010-2011 New Jersey Nets motto: Try Again. Fail Again. Fail Better.

by Gina on Dec 13, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions  

It is an interesting concern.

Since bloggers don’t really have access to begin with, savvy GMs who throw them a bone every now and then can probably turn most of them to mush a whole lot quicker than the professional mainstream media we criticize night and day.

We’ll see what happens, I guess.

Join us.
http://twitter.com/friendsofbarry

by Jamesir Bensonmum on Dec 13, 2010 11:51 AM EST reply actions  

wasn't the Mets' org. already [stroking] reaching out to bloggers before Alderson arrival.

I recall SNY’s Mets Weekly did a segment on bloggers (and other private invitations) and it didn’t stop any blogs from criticizing the team.

by nelsonc on Dec 13, 2010 11:57 AM EST reply actions  

it's still weird to me how guys on tv

can also be on this blog making handjob jokes. i guess that’s the future.

by Pack Bringley on Dec 13, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

It gives me hope that no matter how immature I am

I still may be able to get a real job at some point.

Thus Spoke Keith Hernandez

"The lesson behind Moneyball is that if you are clever in your use of resources, you can gain power beyond your station. It is not, never has been, and never will be, that 'computer models' should take over the world." - Graham

Twitter: ThomasTSKH

by Thomas Wachtel on Dec 13, 2010 6:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, our expectations are high

Ridiculously high — in terms of process — quite low in terms of next year’s performance, and totally realistic in terms of the money Sandy has to spend at the current time. What else would he have us expect?

Also, Theo’s a favorite around here but nobody had qualms with probing into and second guessing the Crawford signing. Had we had money this offseason and Sandy inked the same deal, it would have been approximately the same, conference call or no.

Lastly, I think the guy does make a pretty good point in terms of the pressure that access puts on blogs to start acting more professional, to button up a bit. This is particularly true if the team seems to favor a tier of bloggers who are light on the cusses and ridiculousness and have a certain slickness, as a big corporation like the Mets naturally would. I don’t have a problem with a pretty ecumenical conference call, but if access really escalated it would be hard for the editors of blogs to say, “well, if i sacrificed X and Y I might have a chance to interview Jose Reyes. But X and Y are part of what this blog is, so, fuck that.” it could be done, but it would be tough.

by Pack Bringley on Dec 13, 2010 1:00 PM EST reply actions  

yeah, that last thing is important

I think you can even detect that dynamic at work in the changing tone around AA over the last few years. Not a bad thing, not at all — but there’s definitely a somewhat different culture, one that’s much less prone to knee-jerk FJM-isms, recently.

by anonymous on Dec 13, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions  

and just to be clear, FWIW, I think it's a good trade in this case

The interesting thing is just that the desire to get treated as a “professional,” get better access, become one of the in-crowd, etc., in itself changes how you discuss a topic. It’s hard to see any imminent danger that the Mets blogosphere is going to be coopted and become “embedded” reporters, totally uncritical of the decision-makers — far from it — but it’s a very healthy thing to remain aware of this dynamic, all the same. Forme is a little hyperbolic about this, but not wrong.

by anonymous on Dec 13, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Couldn't disagree more on the money aspect.

Why would anyone assume the Wilpons are being both straightforward wrt finances, and also that they have any idea at all how much money in fact should be spent on the team? We’re talking about a father and son who have run the team into the ground despite enormous advantages. They run a shop with closed books, and they were involved for years with a thief like Madoff, and suddenly we’re supposed to credit them with any judgment whatsoever?

What does amaze me is how (not you, lgc) utterly limp the fanbase has been wet 2011. A team whose true talent level is around .500 and has extraordinary revenue streams including a new stadium yet can’t come up with the money to at least get into the fringes of a postseason race? Particularly after screwing the fans the way they have for years? And this is largely acceptable because…?

by Jack Str on Dec 13, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I was talking about our judgments of Sandy -- that we know he's not been given much money this offseason

Who said anything about trusting the Wilpons’ finances? As for the larger point, I pretty much agree with you. The mess of the Mets is in their laps and it sure would be nice if they gave their new GM a gift $20 or $30M to, like you say, make 2011’s team an outside contender. The lack of outrage over this has mostly to do with a fanbase who’s sick of feeling disgusted and sees bright things on the horizon. We’re shocked that the Wilpons hired this front office, and It just doesn’t feel like gloomsville time right now. Anyway that’s my read.

by Pack Bringley on Dec 13, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I think people aren't criticizing the Wilpons for "not spending"

because, in the grand scheme of things, they are spending. Whether the budget is $140M or $150M, the payroll will still be top-5 in baseball. Combine that with the prospect of being lead by a great baseball mind like Alderson and the widely held belief that the team needs to turn the metaphorical page on certain players and you have acceptance of a “bridge year” where no big contract are added.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Dec 13, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Both those reads sound right, but I'd still like to see a much greater push by the base

towards spending money this season.

lgc, my point is implicit in what you wrote:
“I was talking about our judgments of Sandy — that we know he’s not been given much money this offseason. Who said anything about trusting the Wilpons’ finances?”
What we “know” is that the Wilpons are claiming that Alderson won’t have much money to spend, and if we accept that decision we’re trusting both their version of their finances, and their business acumen wrt what ought to be spent for 2011. My point is simply that we have every reason to doubt their apprehension and interpretation of reality, and every reason to doubt their judgment wrt to what the team should be spending, and on what that money should be spent.

When Alderson says, ‘we only have 5m (or 3m, or 10m) to spend this offseason’, having granted through our elected representatives a monopoly to the Wilpons and having given them an asset worth well over a half billion dollars, we are more than entitled to respond with a polite version of ‘why should we believe that figure, and why isn’t it more?

No one would accept it if the Yankees FO was merely one of the top 5 payrolls in baseball. Given all we’ve given Fred and Jeff I expect them to have at least the highest payroll in the National League. Anything less means they’re not running the team well. We can give a solid share of the blame to Minaya, but the lion’s share has to go to the Wilpons. No one has the market they do, or a market close to the one they have been given. Having a protected monopoly sports franchise in New York City is a license to print money. With all the public gifts they’ve been given, they’re going to have to do better than just tell me, we can’t afford to contend this year.

by Jack Str on Dec 13, 2010 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

The problem is we're working with limited information

Yeah, a “spend spend spend” campaign can be started by blogs, or whomever, but without accurate knowledge of the Mets’ financial situation it’s kind of a waste of time. Now, if the Mets had the 20th highest payroll in baseball, such a campaign could be started without much evidence required. But based on the current situation, and what is known by the public, it just seems fruitless to head down that route.

I’m all for a public audit of the team’s finances and spending compared to the rest of baseball, but can’t think of a reasonable way to go about it.

by James Kannengieser on Dec 13, 2010 6:28 PM EST up reply actions  

On this point

I support it could even be true that the Wilpons gave Sandy more money to work with in 2011 but he’s made
the decision to stockpile it for 2012. Under that scenario the Wilpons are the good soldiers taking the wrap for the shitty 2011, shielding Sandy temporarily and allowing people to call them cheap. I’m not vouching for this, but just an illustration of how little we know.

by Pack Bringley on Dec 13, 2010 10:16 PM EST up reply actions  

There's just nothing inherently fruitless about pushing an ownership

in the largest market in baseball to spend as though they’re in the largest market in baseball. We’ve also just given them the extraordinary gift of a new stadium. We need to hear more than, we’re willing to get within 20m of the Phillies payroll this season.

As for being without an “accurate knowledge of the Mets financial situation”, since our current uncertain knowledge is entirely based on the Wilpons maintaining a high degree of secrecy, what you’re saying is, ‘they won’t tell us these things, therefore it’s kind of a waste of time.’ I don’t accept that. Pressure gets results, often enough. If you have a fanbase demanding reciprocity, with the extraordinary gift the Wilpons received, and a payroll in line with market share in addition to their being one of only 30 beneficiaries of the only openly state-sponsored monopoly in the country, we might see results. If the fanbase shrugs and says, hey, the Phillies are outspending us by 20m this season despite having nowhere near our revenue stream, and that’s okay, yawn, then that’s what we’re most likely to get.

No one’s “saying spend, spend, spend”. That’s a complete strawman.

by Jack Str on Dec 16, 2010 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I think at this point, you have to pick your battles.

Is an extra 30 million really going to put this team over the top in 2011, especially with what’s out there on the free agent and trade markets? I can give them a pass for this season because I know that this financial mess isn’t Alderson’s doing. His predecessor is responsible for it.

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by Steve Schreiber on Dec 13, 2010 8:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Then I'll pick this particular battle. And the one in 2012, too. Both.

(btw, The Wilpons are primarily responsible for the team’s problems. They’re still here, unfortunately. Also, the team’s not in a financial mess at all. They have a few contracts it will be nice to clear off the books, but they also have a nice core of 8 players who can be expected to outperform their contracts. That’s not a mess by any means.)

A good starter and a good 2Bman put the Mets into contention. That’s all it takes.
Say a two win and a three win player, plus the kind of players Alderson has already been pulling in that Minaya had so much trouble finding: Emaus, Carrasco, and Paulino are exactly the kind of guys who chip in half a win to a win.

That’s what amazes me. The Mets are already close to contending. They don’t need to add anything like 30 million dollars for 2011. This is the first time I’ve ever heard a fanbase shrug and say, ‘anh, I’ll take a pass on the season. In addition to the pickups at the margins we’ll have to make anway, we’re two reasonably priced players away from contending, but I’m not particularly interested in that. I’d rather not contend in 2011 AND 2012, just 2012 is fine.’

I’ve simply never seen this attitude, from the fans of any team, in any sport, anywhere. Ever.

by Jack Str on Dec 13, 2010 11:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know if we're really two a 2 and 3 WAR player away from truly contending though.

We were 79-83 last year. Even if you give 3 games as addition by subtraction and natural progression by the youth that gets us to 82-80. Add 2 game for what Alderson has already done and we’re at 84-78. Add your 2 and 3 WAR players and we get to 89-73. The Braves were the worst team to make the playoffs last year at 91-71. In 2009 the worst team in the playoffs was the Rockies at 92-70. The year before it was the Brewers at 90-72. In 2007 the Rockies were again the worst team in the playoffs at 90-73. Assuming these 2 and 3 WAR players want to come here and can actually be had at non-prohibitive costs (whether the cost is years and money or players) and perfect health and no down years, we still are probably on the outside looking in.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Dec 14, 2010 12:26 AM EST up reply actions  

"Add your 2 and 3 WAR players and we get to 89-73. "

So, you’re saying there’s a chance?

Seriously, that’s about the scenario I was figuring on. I don’t at all expect the Mets to be favorites for the wild card, but there’s no reason at all imo that we can’t seriously contend for it. Fall a couple games short? Probably. But if you can put together a true talent 89 win team, you have a pretty fair shot at 92 wins, and some chance at 95.

by Jack Str on Dec 14, 2010 3:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Sure

but that 89 wins (or the luck aided 90-92 wins) is also assuming perfect health and no down years.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Dec 14, 2010 3:10 AM EST up reply actions  

I consider a true talent 89 win team

to be so given the 50th percentile projection, not perfect health (or bad health). I believe that’s the standard meaning of the phrase.

by Jack Str on Dec 14, 2010 5:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Could you give us like a WAR breakdown us to how you see

this as a team close to contending? Cause I just don’t see it barring a lot of miracle performances.

Comparing Cam Newton to other Heisman candidates is like watching the end of Jurassic Park. Sure the velociraptors had been running around causing trouble all movie, but at the end the T-Rex just comes stomping through the wall and annihilates them.- TIP

‎"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed." - Cam Newton
"this fool just went full retard"- Random friend on the above Cam Newton quote

2010-2011 New Jersey Nets motto: Try Again. Fail Again. Fail Better.

by Gina on Dec 14, 2010 8:34 AM EST up reply actions  

No, but I'll ballpark it for you:

The Mets have unusually low turnover between 2010 and 2011, and are NOT bringing back the worst and most destructive ballplayers from 2010. The Mets had 81 Pythag wins last season. Manuel cost the team six games, and that’s a conservative estimate and even that is nearing historical territory. I’m docking the team three wins for Santana’s injury. That puts them at 84 wins. I’m regressing Niese and Santana heavily since neither have more than one decent full-time season to their names, but bumping Bay, Beltran, and Reyes up very slightly. That still leaves us around 84 wins. I’m not expecting Wright, Davis, or Thole to improve, which is also very conservative. Add the 2 and 3 win players I mentioned above and you’re right around 89 wins. Another way to think of it is how close to being very good the team is. Say the Mets add a solid, middle of the rotation starter, and that Santana comes back and pitches decently (he does have an uncanny ability to come back from injuries) in August and September. Suddenly you might have a scenario where Jon Niese is your fifth starter. Think about that for a minute.

And none of this really accounts for all the moves Alderson will presumably make at the margins.

Almost everyone is off on their estimate of this team. Not by a lot, but by a key four wins or so, which heavily depresses the general attitude towards the team’s prospects in 2011. Ogre, an intelligent fellow, cited the Mets 79-83 record. That’s an error. TheMets’ Pythagorean record, which is much, much more predictive for the following season, is 81-81. That’s two wins right there.

by Jack Str on Dec 15, 2010 4:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Btw, it was more than reasonable for you to want a WAR breakdown,

but I’ve found that that only gets bogged down in long, long distracting and unresolvable debates over whether Dickey’s true talent projection for next season is 2.5 or 3.2 wins.

I want to note here too that last season I was more pessimistic than most. This isn’t a case of someone chronically looking at the team through rose-colored glasses.

Part of my optimism for the team’s possibilities involves them very specifically not needing miracle seasons from anyone.

by Jack Str on Dec 15, 2010 4:35 AM EST up reply actions  

For the record

I didn’t even think to look at their pythag record.

But that also begs the question, does pythag account for managerial moves? I don’t think it does. Could the 2-win difference between their “actual” and pythag records be caused by Manuel? Now that would seem like a ridiculously low impact for someone as observably bad as Manuel, but maybe managers have so little real impact – even less that we thought – that even one as bad as Jerry doesn’t actually have a huge amount of impact. If that is true, then adding 6 wins to account for Jerry being gone would be a mistake since his absence is already reflected in their 81-win pythag record.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Dec 15, 2010 4:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Excellent point, in that we have to be careful of double-counting.

Let me mull that over and get back to you. It HAS to be possible that poor managerial moves ARE reflected, as you say, underperformance of a team’s Pythagorean record.

It’s also possible—in fact likely—that poor managerial moves cause teams to overperform their Pyth. Say you have a manager, we’ll call him Roland Nyan, who believes that today’s pitchers are coddled and need to throw 130-140 innings per start. As a result his starters often give up 8, 9, and 10 runs before Nyan brings them out of games. In every other respect his team is a .500 team, but these blowouts cause them to finish their 81-81 season with 750 runs scored, and 850 runs against. Nyan wins the Manager of the Year Award because the writers think, ‘Wow, his teams were heavily outscored, but the genius on the bench managed to get them to .500 rgardless.’

An exaggeration, to be sure, but it strongly suggests that managers who are “slow hooks” may well outperform their Pyth. Other managerial tendencies may also lead to over or underperformance unrelated to managerial skill.

Just for the sake of clarity I’m docking Manuel for moves such as the decision to pitch Maine and Perez for two months because it’s simpler and no less accurate wrt regard to calculating cost to do so, even though he may have had those decisions forced upon him..

But—that’s still an excellent point you made. Let me let it percolate for a couple of days.

by Jack Str on Dec 15, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Okay, couldn't get it off my mind, so some thoughts:

It would be double counting to dock Manuel for both the actual, in-game performances of Perez and Maine, then dock him again some general, handful of wins for being a crappy manager wrt the pitching staff.

Is it double counting, though, to dock Manuel (or however we want classify these) for the actual, in-game performances of Perez and Maine when those performances were recorded and contributed to the Pyth record? It is not, because these are simply poor pitchers who lost games. Once Manuel elected, in effect, to go 1-6 with these pitchers, there wasn’t anything about his handling of them, that I can see, that caused an over or underperformance of the Pyth.

So, just in the case of Maine and Perez, the decision to go with them versus, say, Pat Misch and Nelson Figueroa (whom the Mets unaccountably DFA’ed and who went on to have his usual decent season with the Phillies and the Astros), in my opinion cost the team roughly three wins. Say, nearly three for the likely performance of Misch and Figueroa in place of Perez and Maine, and some fraction of a win for the hideous actual toll that was taken on the bullpen. So, we have roughly three wins right there that are essentially independent of the Pyth record. That brings us up to 84 true talent wins (81 Pyth + 3) with, of course, a large number of variables still to be accounted for, but that’s all I have time for at the moment (Moving Day is coming up).

by Jack Str on Dec 15, 2010 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

If the trend continues in future years than you definitely have a point.

Maybe they go nuts this year with overslotting and IFA this summer. And look to get desperate team to dump slightly overpaid talent on them for peanuts ala Oswalt, Haren, etc.

For me, I’m in a holding pattern before going into “Fred Coupons” mode.

by FrancoTAU on Dec 13, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions  

haha thanks for the link and comment

one thing, though: the low standards thing was meant to be an analogy with a certain political climate, saying not that we have low standards as a group, but that i can’t imagine an organization in more disarray. In general my “critique” is meant to be aimed at a systemic level, not at any particular blogs that of course would jump at the chance to meet and question the people who will be in some sense controlling their happiness for the next 3-10 yrs.

Thanks to Joe, I finally have a new post-Omar motto for my blog: “Off Base Since 2005.”

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Dec 13, 2010 1:17 PM EST reply actions  

oh that's good

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Dec 13, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Regarding Sandy's interview with the bloggers

Did mom bring any food down to the basement during the interview? Perhaps some smores or jello?

by David G on Dec 13, 2010 5:49 PM EST reply actions  

Good for Johan, if he's in the right.

I knew a fellow who had to flee the country after being hit with a phony rape charge. I have it on good authority (the woman herself) that what transpired didn’t resemble rape at all. She just felt guilty about having consensual sex. And she STILL pressed charges because she “felt” violated.

It’s horrible, infinitely so, when actual rape happens. But false accusation ruin lives, and the punishment for false accusations of this kind should be severe in the extreme. As for this,

“Santana, 31, states the woman searched terms such as “false rape,” “evidence preservation” and “Johan Santana” on her home computers, which she refused to let Lee County sheriff’s detectives inspect. Detectives later obtained a search warrant to inspect the computers." Don’t people pull their hard drives if they pull garbage like this?

by Jack Str on Dec 15, 2010 8:11 PM EST reply actions  

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