Question: How can we improve the quality of this roster in the short and long term in a cost efficient and timely manner?

Problems/Holes/Issues:

I’ve considered 5 glaring areas of interest that are able to be ameliorated before next season.

1)      Second Base

2)     The Bench-How to have options off the pine that can put up passable numbers without taxing the minor league system

3)      The OF situation-What to do with Beltran going forward

4)      The Rotation-particularly with Santana out, the absence of any arm that has shown more than 1-2 years of reliable consistency.

5)     The Bullpen-How to take a handful of expendable arms and create a cohesive effective unit

My rationale: I’m a stat head like most of you. Unlike the Minaya administration, I do place considerable stock in fielding metrics, but I’m certainly not Jack Z in Seattle I tend to give more weight to hitting.  We are at a crossroads here today.   Our homegrown talent of Davis/Wright/Reyes should net us 10+ WAR next year. I’ve never seen a problem with any of them. My job is to build the best team, not the luckiest team. The best team doesn’t always win the World Series.  But the best team will always be in the hunt. 

The Mets issue has always been the sprinkles to the cake.  When we brought in the three amigos (Delgado, Beltran, Pedro) to be the batter, we topped that cake with Damion Easley, Shawn Green, and Moises Alou. While the cake was good at first, the more bites you took the less you enjoyed it  Good Drafting and proper talent evaluation could’ve prevented us from reaching this point, but we are where we are.

I’ve never been one to believe that players can’t play in New York, despite the mumblings of Joba the Francesser. Jason Bay has an awful contract and he was a terrible signing before he stepped foot on the field. But players like him and Ollie just can’t be dealt in a way that would benefit the team.  They’re not going anywhere.

Let’s take a look at some moves:

1/3) Carlos Beltran + Lucas Duda + Ryota Igarashi + 10 mil + Brad Holt + Kyle Allen (edited)  for BJ Upton + Jason Bartlett

Reasoning: Beltran’s legs push him to right field, but he should have a healthy enough bat to rake .370 wOBA.  I doubt his ability to reach 120 games this season. But if he can touch 500 PA’s and plays Center in Tampa. Without a huge dropoff, he should put up ~3.5 WAR. Beltran should also net the Rays 2 draft picks at the end of the year. However, in right field in New York, he does not provide that same value. Upton is a plus fielder with a respectable bat entering his 4th year of service time. Bartlett’s value has been diminished by poor hitting season last year, but he has a great glove, will probably have a considerable rebound and shouldn’t have a problem transitioning to 2B or subbing for Reyes on days he needs a rest. Igarashi gives them an affordable bullpen arm after the departure of Balfour and Soriano while Duda gives them a bat that could excel at the Trop’. The 10mil should cancel out any salary gripes by Tampa.  Considering Upton’s stressed relationship with the Tampa administration which has been going back since to his time in the minors, Citi Field may be the change of scenery he needs.

FUCK to the YES

2)

A) Sign Orlando Cabrera to a 1yr 2mil dollar deal. He’s cheap, he’s got a good glove, not much of a bat.  But without being exposed on an everyday level, his skills may show.

B) Trade Tobi Stoner (edited)  for Jesus Flores- One man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Nieve’s arm has been taxed. Flores has been pushed out by Wilson Ramos and Derek Norris. Nieve could possibly start in Washington, Flores could easily backup Thole.

C) Sign Eric Hinske to a 1yr 500k deal. He’s got a good bat, and should be passable at the OF/CI positions for spot starts. Ultimately, he’s a cheap, reliable pickup.

D)  Sign Austin Kearns to a 1yr 500k deal. He has a decent bat, plus glove in right/left. Can you complain?

 4)

A) Trade Matt Harvey, Fernando Martinez, Aderlin Rodriguez, and Jefry Marte to the Royals for Zack Greinke

Reasoning: Didn’t like the Harvey pick, I doubt his ability to start in the long term. F-Mart has never truly performed to his bill. Rodriguez and Marte both have enough question marks to consider them expendable. Greinke has expressed interest in playing in a large market, and the Royals have been rumored to shopping him. He’s under contract until the end of 2012, so he’s not getting a Johan extension until he pitches a least a year in New York. 

Scary...

 B) Sign Erik Bedard to a 1 yr 900k contract with incentives for innings pitched (1 mil/50ip)  topping out at 5 mil for 200+ip (edited):  If he takes the mound this season, it should be a worthy investment.

  


  5)

A) Sign Koji Uehara to a 1yr 3mil deal. A bullpen arm with a lifetime FIP of 3.1? Yes please.

B) Sign Kerry Wood to a 1yr 4mil deal. No compensation given. Should be worthy of a setup role. Hopefully not JJ Putz II.

(with projected 2011 WAR figures)

Gains:

1) BJ Upton = +3.5

2) Jason Bartlett= +1.5

3) Zack Greinke= +6

4) Kerry Wood= +.25

5) Koji Uehara =+1.5

6) Austin Kearns= +.5

7) Jesus Flores= +.5

8) Eric Hinske= +.75

9) Orlando Cabrera =+1

10) Erik Bedard= +1

= +16.5 

Losses

1) Carlos Beltran =+3.5

2) Fernando Martinez =.5

3) Lucas Duda= .5

4) Fernando Nieve=0

5) Ryoto Igarashi=.5

6) Aderlin Rodriguez=0

7) Jefry Marte=0

8) Matt Harvey=.5

9) 10 mil

=5.5 WAR 

                                                                                                                 (2010 Mets=30.4 WAR)

Opening Day Lineup

SS: Jose Reyes

CF: Angel Pagan

3B: David Wright

1B: Ike Davis

LF: BJ Upton

RF: Jason Bay

C: Josh Thole

2B: Jason Bartlett

Starting Rotation 

1) Zack Greinke

2) (Johan Santana)

3) Mike Pelfrey

4) Jon Niese

5) RA Dickey

6) Erik Bedard 

Bullpen

MR: Sean Green

MR: Oliver Perez

MR: Manny Acosta

MR: Bobby Parnell

MR: Koji Uehara

SU: Kerry Wood

CL: Francisco Rodriguez

Minor League System

1) Wilmer Flores

2) Jenrry Mejia

3) Cory Vaughn

4) Juan Urbina

5)  Reese Havens

6) Kirk Nieuwenhuis

7) Zach Lutz

8) Cesar Puello

9) Jeurys Familia

10) Armando Rodriguez

Thoughts?