AAOP - There had to be a 2nd spitter.
by sagecoll on Dec 2, 2010 12:54 AM EST
Email
Print
Question: How can we improve the quality of this roster in the short and long term in a cost efficient and timely manner?
Problems/Holes/Issues:
I’ve considered 5 glaring areas of interest that are able to be ameliorated before next season.
1) Second Base
2) The Bench-How to have options off the pine that can put up passable numbers without taxing the minor league system
3) The OF situation-What to do with Beltran going forward
4) The Rotation-particularly with Santana out, the absence of any arm that has shown more than 1-2 years of reliable consistency.
5) The Bullpen-How to take a handful of expendable arms and create a cohesive effective unit
My rationale: I’m a stat head like most of you. Unlike the Minaya administration, I do place considerable stock in fielding metrics, but I’m certainly not Jack Z in Seattle I tend to give more weight to hitting. We are at a crossroads here today. Our homegrown talent of Davis/Wright/Reyes should net us 10+ WAR next year. I’ve never seen a problem with any of them. My job is to build the best team, not the luckiest team. The best team doesn’t always win the World Series. But the best team will always be in the hunt.
The Mets issue has always been the sprinkles to the cake. When we brought in the three amigos (Delgado, Beltran, Pedro) to be the batter, we topped that cake with Damion Easley, Shawn Green, and Moises Alou. While the cake was good at first, the more bites you took the less you enjoyed it Good Drafting and proper talent evaluation could’ve prevented us from reaching this point, but we are where we are.
I’ve never been one to believe that players can’t play in New York, despite the mumblings of Joba the Francesser. Jason Bay has an awful contract and he was a terrible signing before he stepped foot on the field. But players like him and Ollie just can’t be dealt in a way that would benefit the team. They’re not going anywhere.
Let’s take a look at some moves:
1/3) Carlos Beltran + Lucas Duda + Ryota Igarashi + 10 mil + Brad Holt + Kyle Allen (edited) for BJ Upton + Jason Bartlett
Reasoning: Beltran’s legs push him to right field, but he should have a healthy enough bat to rake .370 wOBA. I doubt his ability to reach 120 games this season. But if he can touch 500 PA’s and plays Center in Tampa. Without a huge dropoff, he should put up ~3.5 WAR. Beltran should also net the Rays 2 draft picks at the end of the year. However, in right field in New York, he does not provide that same value. Upton is a plus fielder with a respectable bat entering his 4th year of service time. Bartlett’s value has been diminished by poor hitting season last year, but he has a great glove, will probably have a considerable rebound and shouldn’t have a problem transitioning to 2B or subbing for Reyes on days he needs a rest. Igarashi gives them an affordable bullpen arm after the departure of Balfour and Soriano while Duda gives them a bat that could excel at the Trop’. The 10mil should cancel out any salary gripes by Tampa. Considering Upton’s stressed relationship with the Tampa administration which has been going back since to his time in the minors, Citi Field may be the change of scenery he needs.
FUCK to the YES
2)
A) Sign Orlando Cabrera to a 1yr 2mil dollar deal. He’s cheap, he’s got a good glove, not much of a bat. But without being exposed on an everyday level, his skills may show.
B) Trade Tobi Stoner (edited) for Jesus Flores- One man’s trash is another man’s treasure. Nieve’s arm has been taxed. Flores has been pushed out by Wilson Ramos and Derek Norris. Nieve could possibly start in Washington, Flores could easily backup Thole.
C) Sign Eric Hinske to a 1yr 500k deal. He’s got a good bat, and should be passable at the OF/CI positions for spot starts. Ultimately, he’s a cheap, reliable pickup.
D) Sign Austin Kearns to a 1yr 500k deal. He has a decent bat, plus glove in right/left. Can you complain?
4)
A) Trade Matt Harvey, Fernando Martinez, Aderlin Rodriguez, and Jefry Marte to the Royals for Zack Greinke
Reasoning: Didn’t like the Harvey pick, I doubt his ability to start in the long term. F-Mart has never truly performed to his bill. Rodriguez and Marte both have enough question marks to consider them expendable. Greinke has expressed interest in playing in a large market, and the Royals have been rumored to shopping him. He’s under contract until the end of 2012, so he’s not getting a Johan extension until he pitches a least a year in New York.
Scary...
B) Sign Erik Bedard to a 1 yr 900k contract with incentives for innings pitched (1 mil/50ip) topping out at 5 mil for 200+ip (edited): If he takes the mound this season, it should be a worthy investment.
5)
A) Sign Koji Uehara to a 1yr 3mil deal. A bullpen arm with a lifetime FIP of 3.1? Yes please.
B) Sign Kerry Wood to a 1yr 4mil deal. No compensation given. Should be worthy of a setup role. Hopefully not JJ Putz II.
(with projected 2011 WAR figures)
Gains:
1) BJ Upton = +3.5
2) Jason Bartlett= +1.5
3) Zack Greinke= +6
4) Kerry Wood= +.25
5) Koji Uehara =+1.5
6) Austin Kearns= +.5
7) Jesus Flores= +.5
8) Eric Hinske= +.75
9) Orlando Cabrera =+1
10) Erik Bedard= +1
= +16.5
Losses
1) Carlos Beltran =+3.5
2) Fernando Martinez =.5
3) Lucas Duda= .5
4) Fernando Nieve=0
5) Ryoto Igarashi=.5
6) Aderlin Rodriguez=0
7) Jefry Marte=0
8) Matt Harvey=.5
9) 10 mil
=5.5 WAR
|
Name |
Position |
2011 Salary |
Estimated WAR |
|
SP |
22.5 |
2.5 |
|
|
Zack Greinke |
SP |
13.5 |
6 |
|
SP |
5.25 |
3 |
|
|
SP |
0.4 |
2.5 |
|
|
RA Dickey |
SP |
0.8 |
2 |
|
Erik Bedard |
SP |
0.6 |
1 |
|
RP |
12 |
0 |
|
|
Koji Uehara |
RP |
3 |
1.5 |
|
RP |
0.4 |
0.5 |
|
|
Kerry Wood |
RP |
4 |
0.25 |
|
RP |
1 |
0 |
|
|
Francisco Rodriguez |
RP |
11.5 |
1.5 |
|
RP |
0.4 |
0.25 |
|
|
75.35 |
21 |
||
|
C |
0.4 |
1.25 |
|
|
Jesus Flores |
C |
0.75 |
0.5 |
|
1B |
0.4 |
3 |
|
|
Jason Bartlett |
2B/SS |
4 |
1.5 |
|
SS |
11 |
3 |
|
|
Orlando Cabrera |
SS/2B |
2 |
1 |
|
3B |
14 |
4 |
|
|
32.55 |
14.25 |
||
|
Jason Bay |
OF |
16 |
2.5 |
|
BJ Upton |
OF |
4 |
3.5 |
|
OF |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
|
Eric Hinske |
OF/1B/3B |
0.5 |
0.75 |
|
Austin Kearns |
RF |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
22.5 |
10.75 |
||
|
Beltran Deal |
10 |
||
|
Castillo Contract |
6 |
||
|
146.4 mil |
46 WAR |
(2010 Mets=30.4 WAR)
Opening Day Lineup
SS: Jose Reyes
CF: Angel Pagan
3B: David Wright
1B: Ike Davis
LF: BJ Upton
RF: Jason Bay
C: Josh Thole
2B: Jason Bartlett
Starting Rotation
1) Zack Greinke
2) (Johan Santana)
3) Mike Pelfrey
4) Jon Niese
5) RA Dickey
6) Erik Bedard
Bullpen
MR: Sean Green
MR: Oliver Perez
MR: Manny Acosta
MR: Bobby Parnell
MR: Koji Uehara
SU: Kerry Wood
CL: Francisco Rodriguez
Minor League System
2) Jenrry Mejia
3) Cory Vaughn
4) Juan Urbina
5) Reese Havens
7) Zach Lutz
8) Cesar Puello
9) Jeurys Familia
Thoughts?
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
65 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I like the team you've built
but it doesn’t, to me, seem feasible for a number of reasons.
most prominently, I don’t think that’s even close to enough for Greinke, and that’s IF Greinke would waive his NT to come here. Harvey is a good prospect but has no ML track record to speak of, and comes with some mixed reports as to whether he actually best projects as a starter (I think he does, but still). F-Mart has very limited value right now, certainly not enough to be an enticing part of a deal for an ace.
also it doesn’t much effect your plan substantively, but im pretty sure fernando nieve was just signed by the pirates.
i’m also not entirely sold that the rays would want beltran.
anyway, some nice ideas, but this seems a little too rotisserie.
Points 7 and 8 from the rules
Feasibility of plan execution is important. Don’t propose a trade of Luis Castillo and Josh Thole for Tim Lincecum and Buster Posey. It’s not going to happen.
Whether or not the Mets might realistically execute your plan doesn’t matter as long as the plan itself can be considered realistic given the current free agent and trade markets.
I don’t know if the Rays would want Beltran particularly. But it seems like a perfect fit. A one year lease for a good bat and 2 draft picks afterwards in exchange for a disgruntled player.
Going back to the Santana deal, using the John Sickels grade system- where we traded a B+ 2 B’s and a B-.
This trade is for a B, 2 B-‘s and a C+. Santana was a lefty. They were both 28. The Royals are not a competitive team. The Twins were. Dayton Moore is pretty retarded, Bill Smith isn’t as bad.
I can’t see it as impossible if I read it in real life.
Beltran can't be offered arbitration
therefore he won’t give anyone picks, therefore the Rays won’t want him.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Just saw this
in the contract. I’m not sure if it’s a deal killer. I could sprinkle the deal with another prospect or 2 (Brad Holt/Kyle Allen/Mark Cohoon?) This would just put the Rays in the same position as they were in this season with Crawford.
Can't argue with that
I’m just thinking of what could complete the deal not of how to make this the best deal possible for the Rays.
Pretty lopsided deal
In my opinion. Upton’s the best player in the deal and the Rays regard him as such. Plus, Beltran seems to have lost his step in center and probably won’t be that valuable. Not sure what incentive gives the Rays any reasoning to make this dael over keeping Upton or taking another one. It doesn’t give them any big improvements, doesn’t curb their payroll, and makes them trade from an area of weakness.
"feasibility of the plan is important"
isn’t that exactly what my comment about your plan was? that it wasn’t, to me, feasible?
the santana deal was a steal, first of all, and you’re still offering less by that sickels standard. (not to mention that f-mart is injured, again) now maybe greinke isn’t consistently where santana was, but it’s still almost certainly not enough. do you remember the surrounding circumstances of the santana deal? the twins were under immense pressure to move him right then and there. the royals seem to be fielding calls for greinke. it’s not the same. they are going to expect a boatload in return.
the feasibility of a plan is probably best examined on a sliding scale. i’m not saying yours is pigs from the sky insane.
I can respect that
though I don’t know if the Santana deal was written off as a steal at the time. Keep in mind the deal depended on us signing Santana to a significant contract, furthermore the Twins were coming off 6 seasons in which they made the playoffs for 4 of those. There was pressure for the team to compete. Also there were no red flags with Santana. He was coming off 1300 IP without break or injury. Many people still believe Greinke is messed up in the head. Combine that with Dayton Moore’s propensity for foolish transactions. Perhaps adding some other prospects will make this deal work. But within the context of the contest, I don’t see a huge rework as necessary.
Differences:
Santana was on a walk year. Greinke is not.
Greinke is better than Santana was (not by much but it still holds true)
Greinke is YOUNGER than Santana was.
Greinke’s current top suitor (Rangers) have oodles more talent than we do. The Yankees had Phil Hughes. That was it. They added Cabrera, but he really isn’t and wasn’t very good.
Well..
1. True
2). 2004-07’: Santana = 27.2 WAR
2007-10’ Greinke= 21.3 WAR
Santana was better.Simply put.
3) Opening day 2008: Santana=28.0 years old
Opening day 2011: Greinke = 27.5 years old.
Older? Yeah…..by 5 months…
4) Some rumored packages for Johan:
Rangers: Eric Hurley (B+), Edison Volquez (B+), Taylor Teagarden (B+) + more
Yankees: Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy
Red Sox: Jed Lowrie (A-), Jacoby Ellsbury (A-), Justin Masterson (B)
Red Sox and Rangers have and still have oodles more talent than we do….We got Johan…
The difference is that the Twins had almost no leverage.
Everyone know they had to move Santana so there was no need for the Red Sox to give up Lest and Ellsbury or for the Yankess to offer Hughes and Kennedy . We came in and offered 3/4 of our top-10 prospects so we got him. The Royals don’t have to move Greinke, therefore the package to get him should/would be considerably better.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Fair point
can’t argue with that. I’d like to see some real life offers such as the ones the Rangers and Yankees will put forth before I start thinking that a haul of Flores/Mejia/whatever would be necessary.
Santana was a better pitcher, Financially the Royals are in a better place,
Couple things
In your response to 2: First of all, why would you compare Greinke’s 2007 to Johan’s 2004? Greinke wasn’t even a starter for the bulk of that season. Also to back my original argument, Santana’s 2007 (The year season before the off-season in which he was traded) was worse than any of Greinke’s full seasons as a starting pitcher.
In terms of 3, Santana is almost a full year older than Greinke, Santana was 29 for all the 2008 season and Greinke will be 28. Yes, it makes a very big difference.
And for 4, you can’t say “well we didn’t have the best package for Santana” and use that as a rationale to send a shitty one to the Royals for Greinke (With a literally untradable player). That’s extremely fallacious logic. Under that framework, we might as well assume that we could just send Perez and Castillo for Greinke. Not to mention that not everyone uses the Sickels scale, and teams tend to acquire players out of need: The Twins needed outfielders and pitching prospects to replace the guys they were trading away. The Royals have little to no need for Fernando Martinez who has chronic arthritis, Aderlin Rodriguez when they already have guys like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas and Billy Butler, and the same goes for Marte.
Also keep in mind that half of the “rumored packages” you mentioned were actually demands that the other teams were NOT willing to take, especially with the Yankees, who offered Hughes and Cabrera straight up, REFUSING to trading BOTH Kennedy and Hughes in the same deal, and Joba altogether.
well
for the sake of year to year comparison. I didn’t count Greinke’s first 2 seasons as a starter in which he had 24+ starts. Those years were both worse than Johan’s 07’.. Santana put up 6 straight years of 3.5+ WAR. That’s a testament to his durability and consistent performance which made him such a hot commodity. As you can see from the responses here, many people still believe Greinke is messed up in the head-something that probably hurts his stock.
As far as the age goes. I don’t know if there’s a huge difference between 28/29. I’ll have to check the figures. Can it make a huge difference? possibly. Can it not make a big difference? equally as possible.
What I don’t understand about your logic is that you’re basically telling me to give more away while telling me that other teams aren’t as willing to give their stuff away as reported.
I can agree with you about the need. From what it looks like, they need a SS. I’m not giving them Flores. But if Ruben Tejada would be enough to make the deal go, I’m absolutely including him.
We’ll see what happens.
1) Bedard's not signing a 1yr/ 500k deal.
2) Fernando Nieve was already signed by the Pirates.
3) Why would you sign Hinske or Kearns when Evans or Duda can do the job for less?
4) Even if that deal can happen, do you really wan’t to bet on whether Grienke can handle NYC?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Hmm
1) Bedard signed last year for 1.5 mil. You think he’ll sign for any more than that after another year out of baseball? I don’t. If you want to quibble and up it to 800k-1 mil. I can accept that.
2) Once again, if we’re going for total legitimacy, simply replace Nieve with Tobi Stoner, it’s all the same to me.
3) a) I Traded Duda in the Beltran deal b) Kearns is a better fielder than any of those in that group c) Hinske vs. Evans is kind of a wash. I like Hinske’s positional flexibility vs. Evans though. He’d be the one to sub for Wright if we were to give him a day off…
4) Beginning of paragraph 3: “I’ve never been one to believe that players can’t play in New York, despite the mumblings of Joba the Francesser.”
2) Why would the Nationals trade a decent prospect for crap (Nieve or Tobi Stoner)
4) He has anxiety issues. This isn’t the typical “he’s not a NY type of guy” BS. This is the crying yourself to sleep hugging a baseball bat type of “he’s not a NY type of guy”.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Flores
is 26 going to be 27, not really a prospect…He’s also been out of baseball for a year and when he was in baseball he was a .5-1 win player. He’s on his way out of Washington. His value isn’t terribly high…
My fiance’ has/had SAD (what Greinke had), She’s a professional dancer, so I think the whole performing in the limelight thing makes this certainly more comparable than normal. I can say that it is night and day between before she took anti-anxiety medication/therapy and after.
Greinke was treated for his condition in early 06’, since returning from that he’s posted a 3.07 FIP in 650 IP. I don’t think he’d have any problems….
Alright, but Washington is still trading something useful for crap.
And glad to hear the wife is doing well, and her situation is certainly more comparable than normal, but she’s not trying to hit a (roughly) 3×3 box from 60 ft. away in front of 13K people with a dude trying to knock it out of the park and beat writers just waiting to write that you suck and have no “heart” in a loud, fast-paced, densely-populated city.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
While I respect you attempt to diagnose
and forecast the potential of Greinke’s stay in New York. It comes off as pretty assumptive based on poor premises.
well no...
It’s based on a different perspective. You’re coming from news reports. I’m coming from personal human contact. I have to give myself the upper hand in this regard.
a point on Bedard
he made 1.5 mil guaranteed last year, but he had incentives that could have brought it up to around 5.5 mil if he had reached the 150 inning plateau. This was something I wrestled with in my AAOP as well. It’s likely he never makes the full amount, but you need to include it as possible payroll for the year, and not assume you’ll pay him to never pitch like Seattle did.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 2, 2010 9:47 AM EST up reply actions
That's a good point
I’d probably do what Seattle did with incentives for innings pitched. 50/100/150/200/250.
yeah its the best way to handle him IMO
if he earns all of the bonuses, then he’s worth every penny.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 2, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
yeah im surprised that a) the Mariners took another flier on him
and b) its only the minimum. I’d agree there are probably a list of incentive clauses a mile long in there.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 3, 2010 9:34 AM EST up reply actions
btw
here’s last year’s contract:
* 1 year/$1.5M (2010), plus 2011 option
o $1M in roster bonuses: $0.25M each for 65, 90, 120, 150 days active
o $6M in performance bonuses: $0.5M each for 14, 17, 20, 23, 26 starts; $0.5M for 75 IP; $0.6M each for 100, 125, 150, 175, 200 IP
I’ve never heard of an injury plagued season causing one’s stock to go up so It’s likely that Bedard would sign for slightly less than 1.5 mil (the 900k I offered sounded about right). I’m offering 5 mil in bonuses which is roughly equal to what the Mariners offered last year with a slight decrease to coincide with the base salary drop.
Why did all you think he’d get a better deal?
I had it in my head that he had sign for more than $1.5M last year
but the contract you outlined in your AAOP was actually very good.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Yeah not surprised he went for less than 1.5 mil base, just that he went for league min.
just wonder how much the dumped into incentives. I only went 3 mil base in my AAOP because A) I wanted to offer more base to lure him away from a cheap deal with Seattle (like the one he got) and B) because i’m horrible at determining free agent contract values.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 3, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Neither the Upton deal nor the Greinke deal would ever happen.
doubt Bedard would sign for that much, nor would I want him anyway because he’s a nutcase. Nieve isn’t on the team. Beltran can’t be offered arbitration, and even if you thrown in a prospect like Holt or Cohoon it really wouldn’t make a difference. I like your intro though, good stuff. Plans just malarky imo.
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
Hard to trade Nieve...he signed with the Pirates and was a free agent
I’m sure you could substitute someone else in there though
2 quibbles
1) I can’t see the Rays taking Beltran in any deal to play the outfield. His knees will never be 100% healthy again. Now, you’re asking Beltran to play on astroturf for at least 81 games a year? That’s a recipe for disaster. It’s a great thought, but I’m not doing it if I’m Tampa.
2) I still worry about Grienke’s anxiety issues to make him a high priority for this team. KC may be dumb enough to take that package, but $27 million for the next two years is a lot to give to someone who has a history of anxiety issues in this town. I’m not saying he can’t do it, but I’d rather him struggle elsewhere with the anxiety issues than here.
Other than the Nieve thing (which was addressed), the roster looks good and you didn’t completely gut the farm system, which is always a concern with these plans.
Carter, hand me my thinking grenades!
Well
for the Beltran thing, I actually thought he’d see some time at DH to keep his leagues healthy and his bat in the lineup. That’s why he belongs in the AL.
For the Greinke issue, observe my discussion with ogre…
I tried not to completely kill the system… Flores is here, Havens is here, and Mejia is here. We’re far from dead in that regard.
Final product looks nice, just not sure about the upton deal
the Greinke one could probably be done with some minor revisions (may need to swap out F! at this point for someone a bit more durable), but it looks right now like its going to take a bunch of top teir pieces to get Upton, and i’m not sure the 1 year, arbitration free Beltran is going to be enough muscle to get the job done. The trade leaves them in the future with Duda, Holt, and Allen as pieces with real value going forward. Toyota Irrigation was terrible last year, so I’m not sure why the D-backs with one of the worst bullpens in baseball would want to take him on as well. Holt has struggled mightily with control the last 2 years, and while he’s still young with upside, I think my optimism may be waning a bit for him. Overall though if we could make this happen somehow, it would be glorious indeed
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
sorry just realized it was the other upton, so ignore the bullpen comment
although I still think it’ll take a better package to get him. The bullpen point may still apply since they lost all their good relievers to free agency, i’m not sure restocking with Igarashi is the answer they’re looking for.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Dec 2, 2010 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
that'll shake things up!
I think there is a rule in MLB about not trading a draft pick (Harvey) for one year. Still I think the Greinke deal could happen with Mejia instead if you’d go that far. If Greinke can play in NYC and would be willing to, it should be a steal. We’ve had quiet stars before (Olerud) jumps to mind.
For the Rays’ trade, first, you’re getting two guys they are interested in moving (supposedly). Second, if you think of Beltran playing DH/CF/RF for them, I think with the cash involved, and additional prospects, you have the makings of a deal. If Bedard and Santana both get healthy, this rotation is among the best in baseball.
You can't trade Harvey
MLB teams aren’t allowed to trade drafted players until one year after the date that they signed.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
Not really
Matt Harvey just becomes a “player to be named later”….
Not feelin' it
The Beltran/Rays trade is ridiculously lopsided towards the Mets. The Rays would take on MORE salary, even with the $10 million the Mets send over, lose a great talent and get nothing to speak of in return. Not even compensatory picks, and I think they’d rather have Upton than two draft picks especially considering the wealth of top flight talent in the farm system as well as tradeable pieces in Garza and Shields (and even Niemann).
The trade for Greinke is also ridiculously Mets-centric. First off, the Mets cannot trade Harvey unless he is a PTBNL, second, the Royals already have like 5 future aces in their farm system, meaning Harvey would have to fight to even be one of their Top 10 Prospects (Consider John Lamb, Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery and Chris Dwyer and hitters Moose-Tacos, Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer). F-Mart is the youngest man in the history of the world to have ARTHRITIS and will likely never have a healthy season. Marte has little value. Rodriguez has OK value in a trade. I’d say a trade for Greinke would start with Jenrry Mejia, Wilmer Flores, Reese Havens and Kirk Nieuwenuis. And I still find that optimistic.
Also, not sure why the Nats would trade Flores for NOTHING. I know, he’s just a backup catcher, but he’s decent and should command more than Tobi Stoner, who is by every means useless.
I also believe Erik Bedard will find a deal worth $3-4 million as a base salary, and will definitely sign for a largely max pay than $5 million.
I also believe
Kearns and Hinske could both potential find deals above the MLB minimum, which is basically what you signing them for here.
This was the big feasibility issue that hit me first
Both guys were productive last year even if they fell off a bit in the second half. They’re going to be up for a 1 year deal, but probably a couple million each.
The problem with the trades is that they’re going to want at least one of our advanced prospects. The Royals have the #1 farm system and the Rays are up there too. So they probably want more sure things than high risk/high upside types in single A. Which means, the Ikes, Tholes, Mejias of the system.
Honestly
Hinske just signed for 1.3 mil after making 1 mil which is at a premium by the Braves so that he wouldn’t walk.
Kearns made 700k last year he’s not making much more this year. League minimum? probably not, if it makes a huge difference, I can consider him a 900k player.
Both will be below the “couple million dollars” range. One already is….
As far as the prospects go, I agree. It’s not great, and if I was the Royals, I’d want someone higher up as well. If it makes a huge difference (which it probably will) I have no qualms throwing in Ruben Tejada to make the deal work.
The Foundation of
this deal comes from unrest between Upton and the Rays administration. It’s a point that hasn’t been addressed by any of the criticisms of the deal. Beltran’s bat is better than Upton’s and the possibility of DH negates concerns of another injury breakdown. I don’t disagree with the Rays wanting to keep Upton. However, I think that Upton and ultimately the Rays would benefit from a change of scenery: 310 and 337 wOBA’s are not that valuable to a contending team. In that same breath, I think Beltran would perform better in Tampa because of the DH.
Once again, Let’s see what other teams are offering before we go crazy with the Greinke offer. After all, someone is only worth what teams will pay for him.
You seriously bashing the Flores deal? He’s coming off a full season of injury. Hmmm a catcher (THE injury prone position) who was injured for a whole year, and who puts up an average of .5 WAR when completely healthy. This is nitpicking.
As is the Bedard deal,
If you look at similar pitchers in terms of age/injury/performance and the deals they got
Chien Meng Wang:~ 5 mil tops deal
Kelvim Escobar: ~5 mil tops deal
The Rays will probably not deal Shields.
In terms of the Upton deal
Here’s what the Rays get for Upton:
1. A year of Carlos Beltran at DH
2. A scrub relief pitcher
3. Lucas Duda, a decent prospect
4. Two crappy pitching prospects
5. $4 million in more payroll to pay.
Reasons why the Rays would want no part of this trade:
1. B.J. Upton is a good baseball player who costs relatively little to keep. He hits for good power, steals a lot of bases, walks a good amount. He plays good defense. In his worst full season, he put up a 2.2 WAR. He’s always healthy and playing. He will be 26 years old come 2011 Opening Day, and is likely that the best is yet to come from him. He’s exceptionally value to a contending team.
2. There are plenty of ways to get a DH for $4 million that don’t involve giving up a really really really good baseball player like B.J. Upton (think Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Vlad Guerrero).
3. Even if Beltran was in fact the best option out there, or at least the best by enough so that trading Upton for him is REALLY the Rays best option, they have absolutely NOBODY to replace him. The team just lost their best outfielder and are struggling to replace him, I see no reason for them to give up their next best one, who is also really really good, to acquire nothing special.
4. Brad Holt and Kyle Allen have little value to any team, but to the Rays specifically they are little more than dirt. The Rays currently have a rotation of David Price, Wade Davis, Matt Garza, James Shields and Jeff Niemann, and prospects like Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore, as well as countless more starting pitching and relief pitching prospects. They have little to no need for pitching prospects, much less relatively awful ones.
5. Even if for some reason, the Rays find it necessary to trade away a very good center fielder for a DH of Beltran’s caliber rather than just signing one, they would likely do so in effort to rebuild for the future, and not expect to win in 2011, because they are relying almost completely on Jennings, Brignac and Duda to produce as full time big leaguers as well as whoever the hell they find to play center field. The problem with this trade is the only player they acquire who could feasibly help them in the future is Duda, and while he’s a solid prospect, he’s certainly not worth a very good MLB center fielder.
NOW, in terms of the Greinke deal:
The Royals do not HAVE to trade Greinke this offseason. He has at least one more cheap year in him, and worst case scenario he’s a Type A free agent. This means that the Royals would REALLY need to get a very very very good deal in order to trade him. Meaning it would take significantly more than that package (even if Harvey were tradeable) to get him.
I’ll submit to you and just say the Nats would accept that kind of deal. Also, judging by Bedard’s current ACTUAL deal, I will say you were definitely right about that too.
by METSMETSMETS on Dec 3, 2010 1:34 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Fair points
For me, the prospects that we’re trading are easily swappable if it would sway the deal one way or another.
If you want to replace Holt/Allen with say Puello//Lutz—-I have no problem with that. I don’t think someone like Upton will honestly take much more than that.
What I think you and most people are misinterpreting from my comments is that Beltran would be a CF first, with occasional days at DH for rest. He doesn’t have this luxury in the NL and I think it’d be pretty naive to write it off as a stupid idea for the Rays. They are not simply paying for a DH. They’re banking on the return of Beltran’s bat in a walk year with improved legs due occasional breaks from manning CF.
I don’t disagree with you about the Rays wanting to invest more into their future. To that end, revert back to Upton’s problem in the administration.
His past two hitting seasons have been god-awful for someone of his skill-set (wOBA’s of 310 and 337) for reference- Luis Castillo put up (315 and 337 in 08’/09’_
If he puts up another season below .350, his stock becomes greatly undervalued,
Personally I don’t know what the Royals want to do. The motivation for this trade is coming from Greinke himself. He’s expressed desire to be moved. The Royals payroll is on the rise and dumping Greinke would cut costs. With 4 good pitching prospects, they can afford to make that type of move.
I agree that someone like you and I, would hold onto Greinke til the end and never let him go at that price. But Dayton Moore is not that guy.
It’s really tough to try to portray a realistic discussion on the basis of contemporary advanced sabermetric figures when we’re dealing with someone who doesn’t use them.
I don't really like it.
I think all the trades are unrealistic. Maybe the Nationals would trade Flores, but he really isn’t so good anyway. The Rays definitely would say no to that trade, and even if the Royals would make that trade, I don’t want Greinke.
Also, I think you are overestimating the team WAR by a good amount.
I can go for all of those points
Not the best deal for the Rays, can’t disagree with that. But not impossible.
If you have the chance to get Greinke without completely obliterating your system and turn it down, there’s something wrong with you.
I can make some adjustments to the WAR if you tell me which calculations you have issues with particularly
Greinke
I’m just too worried about his anxiety and depression returning.
I'd share those concerns, but the upside is that he's young enough
and his problems are common knowledge. The Mets could probably flip him in July or the offseason if he has some issues and get back most of what they traded for him.
If Greinke believes that NYC won't be an issue, I'd take him at his word
"The Mets are gonna be amazing" - Casey Stengel
I don't
Tens of millions of dollars can sometimes make folks think they are in a lot better shape than they are. The whole “I don’t want to go to a big market” to “I’ll go if I go to a winner” thing also puts his character at issue for me. It seems like the whole no-trade clause thing was a leeeeeetle bit manufactured. If he can take the stress, he should have agreed to waive the no-trade or whatever it is that he has.
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Amazin' Avenue
Related FanShots on Amazin' Avenue
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
