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Around SBN: Roy Nelson Willing to Pay for His Next Opponent's Drug Test

His selections:

Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Kevin Brown
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Mark McGwire
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

The result impresses but the process is even better. Be sure to click through and read his thorough rationale for each candidate. Can you see why we're excited to have Davidoff write the Foreword for the 2011 Amazin' Avenue Annual?

over 1 year ago Best_infield_ever_tiny James Kannengieser 32 comments 0 recs  | 

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Davidoff rocks. I love Rubin’s info gathering, but when it comes to analyzing, Davidoff has to be my favorite of the NY media.

by nmigliore on Dec 23, 2010 11:15 AM EST reply actions  

Why not?

He’s one I’m on the fence about (more so after reading Davidoff’s endorsement, really) and I’m open to being convinced either way.

by JoshNY on Dec 23, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

I think his case is stronger than most think

But yeah, he’s definitely borderline. His career is near identical to Curt Schilling’s, minus the bloody sock b.s.

by James Kannengieser on Dec 23, 2010 12:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Schilling had 5 seasons better than Brown's second-best.

Also his best was better than Brown’s (9.7 to 9.3). His career fWAR was about 9 higher than Brown’s. In fact, pretty much everything I’m looking at has Schilling as better than Brown. Nothing against Kevin Brown, but Schilling has quite a bit more going for him than the 2004 ALCS. I don’t know if either one is a HoFer, but I wouldn’t call them “near identical.”

Thus Spoke Keith Hernandez

"The lesson behind Moneyball is that if you are clever in your use of resources, you can gain power beyond your station. It is not, never has been, and never will be, that 'computer models' should take over the world." - Graham

Twitter: ThomasTSKH

by Thomas Wachtel on Dec 23, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Alright

A comparison though, which I based my statement on:

Curt Schilling: 3261 IP, 216-146 W-L, 128 ERA+, 4.38 K/BB, 1.0 HR/9, fWAR 86.1, bWAR 69.7
Kevin Brown: 3256 IP, 211-144 W-L, 127 ERA+, 2.66 K/BB, 0.6 HR/9, fWAR 77.2, bWAR 64.8

Browns’ K/BB deficiency is made up for by his homers allowed, which makes sense considering he had a nasty sinker. I guess I’ll change ‘near identical’ to ‘remarkably similar’.

I don’t trust WAR for pitchers as much as for hitters, and at the least look at both FanGraphs and B-Ref WAR. Your statement that “Schilling had 5 seasons better than Brown’s second-best” changes drastically when you look at B-Ref WAR. Per that method, Brown had 2 seasons better than Schilling’s best.

by James Kannengieser on Dec 23, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I think if Brown is a hall of famer

Dwight Gooden has a good argument, and so do a bunch of others. It’s not the Hall of Very Good. Brown was very good.

by David G on Dec 23, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions  

And the reason I bring up Doc

Gooden’s 162 game avg. season: 16-9, 3.51 ERA, 186 Ks, 227 IP
Brown’s 162 game avg. season: 15-10, 3.25 ERA, 162 Ks, 230 IP

Gooden: 7.4 Ks per 9, 3.1 BBs per 9, 8.2 hits per 9. 1.25 WHIP, ERA+ 111
Brown: 6.6. Ks per 9, 2.5 BBS per 9, 8.5 hits per 9, 1.22 WHIP, ERA+ 127

Brown’s got him on ERA + and WAR because his peak was during the hitter’s boom, but still, it’s close. If 84’-90’ Doc pitched during Brown’s peak era of 96 to 2001 it would be really close.

I wonder if Doc had a Sandy Koufax like injury after ’91 and retired then, when he still had a ridiculous 132-53 record after 8 seasons, would he have made the Hall?

by David G on Dec 23, 2010 7:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Some good ones there

can’t argue with most of them. But yeah, not seeing Brown, even with the rationale. From ‘96 to 2000 he played at a really high level, but it’s not enough of a sustained greatness for the Hall. Throughout his 20s, he was really just a slightly above average pitcher, and never even finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting. That seems like it’s just a vote to keep him on the ballot, there’s no way in hell he gets in.

by David G on Dec 23, 2010 11:32 AM EST reply actions  

He just was not good enough long enough

you are wrong about his Cy Young, he placed second in 1996 and third in 1998. But his contract with the Dodgers was one of the worst ever given to a player, his performance clearly declined after 1999 because of injury, he really only had one good year after that and many say that was because of PED’s. Had a mixed record in big games, pitched very well in 1997 but as we all know well, spit the bit for the Yankees in 2004. Terrible clubhouse guy by all accounts. I agree he is pretty similar to Schilling but Curt was better longer and has the extra ring to prove it.

by Endys Game on Dec 23, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't see

why his contract with the Dodgers has any bearing on the conversation.

by JoshNY on Dec 23, 2010 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm also not convinced the contract was one of the worst ever given to a player

It was 7 years, $105 million, and here’s what he did during that span:

1078 IP, 131 ERA+, 3.31 K/BB, 0.7 HR/9, 26.2fWAR, 21.8 bWAR

You’d like to see more durability I guess but injuries happen. That’s 154 IP per season and paying about $4.5 million per win.

BTW I’m not the world’ biggest Kevin Brown fan or anything, just always found him underrated.

by James Kannengieser on Dec 23, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

only that it highlights how injury prone he was

over so many years with one team. He pitched well when healthy for the Dodgers but he was seldom healthy after 1999. And while it may not seem like much these days, at the time, he got a huge payday.

by Endys Game on Dec 23, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure, it was a huge payday

and sure, he was injury-prone. I don’t see what the two have to do with one another. His injury-prone-ness and the resulting lack of innings pitched during that span would have the same impact on his HOF candidacy if he were making league minimum, as far as I see it anyway.

by JoshNY on Dec 23, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Heh:
Lenny Harris: Good Lord. No.

I love how he has anecdotes for easy "no"s like Carlos Baerga and Bobby Higginson and Raul Mondesi.

by JoshNY on Dec 23, 2010 11:44 AM EST reply actions  

Speaking of which...
Mondesi loved showing off that throwing arm. Just loved it. And he could hit a ball very far, when he connected. Overall, though, he played as he lived: Undisciplined. No.

“He played as he lived” made me think Mondesi died and I missed it, and I actually had to go look and see whether he’s still alive or not. Turns out not only is he still alive, but he’s off to a successful start to a political career in the DR – earlier this year he was elected to a six-year term as the mayor of his hometown.

by JoshNY on Dec 23, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah, that was a pretty weird remark

I knew he was still alive but I checked to see if there was some scandel that I missed.

by Endys Game on Dec 23, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

PEDs

Did anyone else think Davidoff was a little inconsistent when considering PEDs. He says its “Not my problem” when considering the candidacies of McGwire, Bagwell and McGriff, but then keeps Palmero off his ballot because he failed a drug test after the PED ban was put into place. Not sure I buy Davidoff’s justification for the distinction.

by englishgrey on Dec 23, 2010 12:22 PM EST reply actions  

I think the distinction is that he failed the drug test after a punishment was put into place

McGwire, Bagwell and McGriff never failed an official test. I can understand a voter taking that approach.

Unrelated, but Ken used all 10 available ballot spots, Palmeiro is conveivably 11th best behind those 10, regardless of PEDs.

by James Kannengieser on Dec 23, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

There's not much of a difference to me

If you’re going to punish players for PED use, then you should punish players for using PEDs before or after the official punishment was put into place. Obviously, there’s a lot of innuendo about who used PEDs before the official punishment was put into effect, but I think at least McGwire is a clear cut case.

by englishgrey on Dec 23, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Raises the question of how you know for sure who was using PEDs before the punishment came into play

Seems pretty unfair to exclude someone, like Bagwell, without any hard evidence. At least in Palmeiro’s case we can point to a failed test.

Another question is whether the pre-punishment PED users (like McGwire) were even doing anything wrong in the first place. I’d argue no but reasonable people can say yes. I don’t see why government law should determine what’s right and wrong, especially in this case.

by James Kannengieser on Dec 23, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Also agree

It’s a slippery argument to go for Brown and not Palmeiro. Makes it sound personal for him. And the fact that Brown’s career mostly took off after age 30 raises a bit of a red flag.

by David G on Dec 23, 2010 6:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Solid list

I think the most interesting debate is Larry Walker. He was a Hall of Fame caliber player, but played 150 games in a season I think just once or twice, and I am certain it is fewer times than Gary Carter, Pudge Rodriguez and Carlton Fisk. Seems that showing up should be part of the test.

by goquakers on Dec 23, 2010 2:16 PM EST reply actions  

I agree Walker is the most interesting debate

because Kevin Brown is point blank, not a Hall of Famer.

Let’s start with the obvious – Walker put up some nice stats in Colorado, but who hasn’t. Even Dante Bichette looked like a good player while there. If you look at the splits though, it’s not so pretty for Larry. His career batting average is .313, but it was .334 in 10 seasons as a Rockie, and dropped to .283 in 8 seasons as a Cardinal and Expo. His career OPS of .965 looks great until you see that it was 1.044 in the thin mountain air, and a little over .850 in St Louis and Montreal.

He hit over .300 eight times with Colorado, including .350 or better four times. He only hit over .300 twice with Montreal, and never with St Louis – topping out at .322 in his last season with the Expos. He had an OPS over .900 nine times with the Rockies, topping 1.000 an incredible six times. He only had an OPS over .900 once in his other 8 seasons.

In 17 seasons, he only had 200 hits once, over 100 runs four times, over 30 HR’s four times, over 100 RBI five times and only had more than 65 BB’s four times. The biggest key to this obviously being the injuries, which is another strike against him. He only played 130 games or more in 10 of his 17 seasons, and over 140 games only FOUR TIMES in 17 years.

To his credit, he did finish with a career OPS+ of 140. He also reached double figures in stolen bases 11 times, played a solid rightfield with a laser for an arm and didn’t stike out much. He also had a career OBP of .400.

In the postseason, Walker was awful. He did have 4 extra base hits in his one (losing) World Series appearance, including 2 HR’s. But, other than that series, he had a career .210 BA in the postseason.

In closing, I think Larry Walker was a very good player. He always hustled, played the field well and never caused any trouble off the field. I myself find it hard to call him one of the best players of his generation though, due to the fact that his stats are so heavily skewed by playing in Colorado. I can see why some would consider him a borderline HOFer, for sure. Davidoff and many others in baseball feel he belongs. Time will tell.

There are many, many, many more deserving guys eligible.

My 6-year old daughter even hates the Ravens.

by SundaysWithTroy on Dec 23, 2010 3:52 PM EST up reply actions  

For example?

“many, many, many” seems to suggest that you think there are like 30 or 40 guys with better cases.

by JoshNY on Dec 23, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

No Franco?

424 saves (fourth all-time)
975 Ks
career ERA of 2.89
career 7 K/9IP.
His saves and ERA are better than Goose Gossage, and his K/9IP are about the same. This is ridculous.
No Tino Martinez?
He’s borderline, but he does have more RBIs and HRs then Edgar Martinez who Davidoff drools over in this article. Plus Tino actually played defense.
No Don Mattingly?
over 1000 RBIs, a strikeout percentage (6.3%) equal to Ozzie Smith’s, a .307 career average, including a career high AVG of .352 and a WAR of 7.7. He also has a career fielding percentage of .996 at first base, which is eighth all-time among first baseman, and only 64 errors. 1500 DPs, too.
And if McGwire gets in…something is very wrong with the baseball world.

by JoeBighead on Dec 23, 2010 8:55 PM EST reply actions  

Except for relievers, the cut-off line for me is 60 WAR

Edgar Martinez posted 67.2 career rWAR
Ozzie Smith posted 64.6 career rWAR
They get in.

Don Mattingly posted 39.8 career rWAR
Tino Martinez posted 25.7 career rWAR
They don’t get in, especially Tino who has no business staying on the HoF ballot after this year.

John Franco posted 25.8 career rWAR as compared to Goose Gossage’s 40.0 career rWAR. No comparison. I’m not sure where the cutoff line would be for me with relievers, but I just can’t see letting in someone who averaged 1.23 rWAR/season.

"The Mets are gonna be amazing!" - Casey Stengel

by Russ on Dec 24, 2010 12:37 PM EST reply actions  

Let me clarify

60 WAR is the cutoff for an almost no question “yes.” I would vote no for people who were involved in scandals who had WARs higher than 60, and there are some case-by-case exceptions for players with lower WARs who were unquestionably exceptional.

"The Mets are gonna be amazing!" - Casey Stengel

by Russ on Dec 24, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

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