Over at his Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, SG developed his well-regarded CAIRO projections and has revised them twice now. He takes a moment to explain the process before jumping into CAIRO v3.0:
In short, it's not pretty. Take a look at the NL East:
So, anyway, using the depth charts from the wonderful MLB Depth Charts and includng playing time from players on the 40 man roster who don’t necessarily figure to be part of the the opening day 25 man rosters to account for organizational depth and playing out next season 10,000 times, here’s how CAIRO v0.3 sees things as of December 27, 2010.
Uh yeah, two or three games worse than last year despite a boost from a full year of Carlos Beltran. You can see that Beltran's return, and possibly Jason Bay's bounce back, do help pad the runs scored total, but maybe the change won't be as noticeable as we hope. All of the veteran position players *are* another year older.
The main problem are those 50 extra runs allowed. Johan Santana's injury will obviously cost the team, and even Sandy Alderson has talked about how pitching might be the problem. But without any money, it will be tough to better this number much. It will be interesting to see if a new signing pushes the needle, but Chris Young isn't going to net the team 12 wins and launch the team into contention.
This is the reality of the upcoming season. We can be positive and perky about it, but there haven't been many fundamental changes to the current team, they only won 79 games last year, and the front office is taking the long view. 2011 may not be a pretty year, and CAIRO serves as the splash of cold water to remind us of that fact.
Happy New Year!