Amazin' Avenue Book Club: Moneyball, Chapter Five

by James Kannengieser on Dec 7, 2010 1:00 AM EST

Take a break from the hot stove season and Jets destruction for some AA Book Club! Here is Chapter Five: The Jeremy Brown Blue Plate Special.

The Oakland A's prep for the 2002 MLB Draft is covered in Chapter Two. Chapter Five details how the Moneyball Draft unfolds. The A's plan to avoid high school players, especially pitchers, is reiterated. Undervalued college players are the targets. Billy Beane's parade of misfit toys includes fat catcher Jeremy Brown and undersized Marc Kiger. Several other coveted players are selected and the A's draft team is ecstatic. Paul DePodesta exclaims that they selected two of the three best righthanded pitchers in the country and two of the four best position players. "Don't think this is normal", Billy adds. The highly regarded Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton are also drafted, eventually representing the best of the 2002 haul.

Despite the supposedly sound process, most of the A's sleeper picks didn't pan out. Brown retired before the 2008 season. Kiger still has zero MLB plate appearances. Other high picks like John McCurdy and Steve Stanley didn't break through. A case of the good process, bad outcome "bad break" quadrant of the process vs. results matrix? Or an instance where the process is in need of an overhaul? Perhaps the A's were unlucky to focus on college players in a draft full of great high school talent? Zack Greinke, B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder, Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir, Denard Span and Matt Cain were all high school players selected in the first round of the 2002 Draft.

Steve Phillips is featured in Chapter Five, as Billy tries to dissuade him from taking Nick Swisher. Phillips eventually takes Kazmir, as we all know.

Some memorable Chapter Five passages:

Don't believe a thing is true just because some famous baseball player says that it is true.

"Anti- intellectual resentment is common in all of American life and it has many diverse expressions," he [Bill James] wrote.

"Cecil Fielder acknowledges a weight of 261," Bill James once wrote, "leaving unanswered the question of what he might weigh if he put his other foot on the scale."

And, in a particularly fawning Lewis screed:

Billy Beane was a human arsenal built, inadvertently, by professional baseball to attack its customs and rituals.

Let's go to the discussion questions.

Mets-centric appearances/mentions in Chapter Five:

Cory Lidle, former Met
Clint Everts, former Mets minor leaguer
Steve Phillips, former Mets GM
Scott Kazmir, former Mets minor leaguer
Marc Kiger, former Mets minor leaguer
Russ Adams, Mets minor leaguer
Royce Ring, former Met

Discussion questions:

1. General discussion of the A's draft strategy -- process, results, etc. What can be learned here?

2. If the Mets held on to Scott Kazmir through 2008, how would the Omar Minaya Era be different? How would the 2006-2008 seasons have panned out?

3. What's the deal with anti-intellectual resentment?

4. Jonah Hill is slated to play Paul DePodesta in the Moneyball film adaptation. It's an odd choice. Based on physical resemblance alone, which actor would you choose to play d3p0?

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I guess they want D3PO to be a quirky but funny nerd

instead of a straight up nerd. It might play better for the big screen considering the material being covered. If Beane isn’t portrayed as a short tempered eccentric along with his quirky and funny side kick, it’s probably a hard sell to non baseball fans.

Was I the only one despite knowing that the Mets made a good pick, was worried that Billy was going to trick Steve Phillips into picking a scrub?

It’s kind of tough to grade the A’s drafting results here. They still picked an above average RF and mid rotation starter despite their stinker choices. If Billy had more money and still picked all these guy than it would’ve been harder to defend. He simply didn’t have the 7 figures it would’ve took to sign any of these top HS players that year on top of Swisher and Blanton.

by FrancoTAU on Dec 7, 2010 1:59 AM EST reply actions

just from my idea of how the Moneyball movie should be made

I’m thinking that DePodesta has to be serious enough to highlight that chair-throwing scene when the A’s are eliminated from the playoffs.

"I bet you'd lobby her, you horny 15 year old!" -Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan

by metsguy234 on Dec 7, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions

underslot

The biggest thing I took from this was that the draft is still a huge crap shoot.

Also, despite any moneyball techniques, most of which are lessened in modern day, the A’s were still at a gross disadvantage and baseball needs to do something about a salary cap/floor.

That the A’s actually needed to go underslot and collude with players to draft them higher, but not pay them, is fairly disturbing. Also, it’s funny that one of the things people are pumped up about MoneyMets is that they’ll now go overslot in the draft. Which certainly might be true, but I’m not sure it’s a “moneyball” concept.

-Ceetar, the Optimistic Mets Fan

by Ceetar on Dec 7, 2010 7:36 AM EST reply actions

Hanks kid

I forget his first name

by brooklynlou on Dec 7, 2010 7:44 AM EST reply actions

Just remembered ...

Colin Hanks

by brooklynlou on Dec 7, 2010 8:25 AM EST up reply actions

Quirky but funny nerd who looks like DePodesta?

Paul Rudd. Hands down.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Dec 7, 2010 12:21 PM EST reply actions

The quote of the chapter

If you challenge the conventional wisdom,you will find ways to do things much better than they are currently done.

The discussion points:

1. I think this draft falls under the good process, OK result outcome(I know it’s not there, but whatever). In a situation like theirs, they had to be conservative & take who they thought would be the best with the money they had at their disposal. I think we can learn that the draft is an imperfect science & that most kids would sign for anything if they get a chance to live out their dream.

2. I think if the Mets held onto Kazmir through 2008, they would’ve made the postseason in ‘07 & ’08 & maybe a World Series appearance as well. We would’ve still whooped NL ass in ‘06, but by ’07, Kazmir would’ve stepped in to become the #1 pitcher with Pedro, Glavine & El Duque as the 2-4. That rotation, along with Pelfrey coming up in ‘08, would’ve made us a great team. And interestingly enough, if Scott stayed a Met & performed well, I don’t think Omar goes after Santana.

3. I think the anti-intellectual resentment comes from a fear of the unknown. It’s so easy to stay with what you’re accustomed to, but any new ideas or beliefs can challenge what you hold dear & you as a result, you close your mind to new ways of thinking. Also, it sorta goes with the whole “jock vs. nerd” issue. And to relate the anti-intellectualism with sabermetrics in baseball, it’s easy to take a former player’s(either high school, MLB or in the case of WFAN callers, coaching in little leagues) advice instead of some whiz kid because “he played the game.” We have a tendency to accept their viewpoint because they have experience in that field, but with the advances being made, their stances hold less weight.

4. I wouldn’t know because I’m not as up on movies these days as I should be.

What's that about?

by Brian. on Dec 7, 2010 3:02 PM EST reply actions

Good quote, and good analysis.

I would add that only a very small minority of most team’s draft picks make it to the majors. Sure, there were a lot of busts, but what team doesn’t have a lot of busts? I think that focusing on the players featured in the book narrows the scope too much for a good look at process.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Dec 7, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions