Baseball Prospectus' Top 11 Mets Prospects
by Sam Page on Feb 12, 2010 2:07 PM EST
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PrintKevin Goldstein released his top 11 Mets prospects today, and it's a fairly reasonable list (subscription only).
Five-Star Prospects
1. Jenrry Mejia, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Fernando Martinez, CF
3. Wilmer Flores, SS
4. Ike Davis, 1B
Three-Star Prospects
5. Jon Niese, LHP
6. Brad Holt, RHP
7. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF
8. Josh Thole, C
9. Kyle Allen, RHP
10. Ruben Tejada, SS
11. Reese Havens, SSFour More:
12. Jeurys Familia, RHP
13. Cesar Puello, OF
14. Jefry Marte, 3B
15. Juan Urbina, LHP
Working on #Mets Top 11 -- I probably have 12 guys one could argue for for the last three spots; not in a good way.
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Im surprised by Meija's rating
it seems like he has some size/durability concerns to be considered 5 stars. Also do you mean he had Davis above Murphy, Parnell and Niese, I’m surprised he’s that high on Davis, or that low on Niese whichever it is.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Of that bunch.
The Parnell ranking vis-a-vis Niese surprises me more.
An issue of ceiling, I take it.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Feb 12, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
I would guess it's an issue of floor
Parnell more than likely will definitely stick as a bullpen arm, and he’s already made it there. Where as Niese obviously has to prove he can stick in the rotation, and it seems like if he can’t his stuff wouldn’t translate well to the bullpen I suppose? I’m not sure I definitely prefer Niese but I can understand why they would rate a player who already has a role he’s proven he’s capable of handling in the majors a little higher.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Parnells ceiling is higher
With heat like his, all he needs is some decent secondary pitches to take it to the next level.
and yes, Niese would not translate well to the pen with his current arsenal.
by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 12, 2010 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
uh
With heat like his, all he needs is some decent secondary pitches to take it to the next level.
I think you could say that about thousands on pitchers who never amount to much. Even if Parnell reaches his full potential as a reliever, I doubt he’s more valuable than Niese is, as a starter.
Yeah
I can’t really see how someone who is projected to be a career reliever can be considered a better prospect than a starter, like Niese, who has already put up some pretty impressive numbers on all levels.
"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer
by boom_roasted on Feb 12, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
At 24
and after being in the system for what 4-5 years, he was bordering on non prospect status until 08 years ago, I’d imagine he’s been working on secondary pitches for some time and if he hasn’t added them by now I would say it’s pretty unlikely they’re suddenly going to click for him.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I think Niese's current arsenal would translate to the pen just fine.
Decent fastball that produces groundballs, good curveball, decent change. He’s a lefty too, and he has the tools to get righties out.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 12, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure ground ball stuff translates that well to the bullpen
obviously it’s better than flyball stuff or a guy who pitches to contact but can’t get weak contact. but I don’t think pitchers who pitch to a lot of contact usually translate very well to the bullpen. .
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
But Niese isn't really a pitch to contact guy.
He’s got a career minor league line of over 8 strikeouts per 9. The groundball rate is just an added plus, and would definitely hepl with runners on.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 12, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
He doesn't really have a dominant single pitch though
His curve is very good, and his other pitches are all decent, but his strength is more depth of arsenal than having a real putaway pitch. That’s not to say he couldn’t pitch in relief, but I don’t think he’d improve the way you expect a lot of guys to in the pen. Like Holt for example, I’d expect him to get a huge boost in his rate stats, because he can work off his fastball, dial it back, and not worry about exposing it to the same hitters multiple times per game. Niese has the benefit of being able to work his repertoire into the game a bit more. He can throw straight fastballs and curves the first time through, and then start working in the cutter and changeup a bit more the second time to give them a different look.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 12, 2010 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
Like this list a lot
My only gripe is Havens. The empirical evidence that he’s going to be a “low average” hitter just doesn’t seem convincing to me. Assuming his other skills stay consistent as he moves up the ladder, he’s going to have to be on the low end of the BABIP-skill bell curve to be a guy who hits below .280 every year. I’m not saying that won’t happen, but of all the things he’s done that you can make this kind of claim about, the connection here seems weakest. As KG also points out, even if he is a low average guy, he appears to have the patience and power to remain a productive player anyway. To me, that translates as high floor-high ceiling, even if he hasn’t really played at a high enough level to feel entirely comfortable saying something like that, I feel like his bust potential is unusually low for a guy who hasn’t played above HiA and that he has superstar in his ceiling.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 12, 2010 2:17 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Quibble quibble quibble
Rabble rabble rabble
by James Kannengieser on Feb 12, 2010 2:20 PM EST reply actions
Wobble?
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Feb 12, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
I don't really know that I'd call Tejada an across the board average guy.
His defense is a real plus from all accounts, and he really doesn’t ever project to hit for any power. He’ll never likely be a real plus at the plate, but if his defense is that good he’s certainly a safer bet to be a productive major leaguer than Havens. I’d personally rank Havens higher, but I think at worst Tejada will be a capable backup middle infielder, where Havens has a much lower floor.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 12, 2010 2:37 PM EST reply actions
Nice list
I predict Valdespin is on this list next year. Another dark horse is Richard Lucas. He slugged .622 with an OPS of 1.014 in 100 abs at Kingsport and is a former 4th round pick in ‘07. Still only 21. And let’s not forget Matz, hopefully he’s the real deal.
valdespin
will never be on that list
kyle allen will be a top 25 in baseball prospect next year
by firejerrymanuel on Feb 12, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
What don't you like about Valdespin?
I admit I mainly like the name and am kind of kidding about it. But if 3 to 5 of the guys on that list are on the Mets in a year why couldn’t he have a good year and move up to top 15? He’s already in their top 30 on a few prospect lists. He’s a middle infielder who’s flashing some power and speed. He sounds better than Castillo already. Have you heard he’s a horrible fielder or something?
by Mackey Sasser on Feb 12, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
I'm really curious to see what Eddie Lora does with a full season in the US.
His DSL numbers looked really good, and he looked really bad in the GCL.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 12, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
I'd have loved those picks,
but I could live with it if the Mets are fairly aggressive and actually go over slot in the later rounds. I still think Lora will end up being the better of the two guys we got from them.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 12, 2010 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Really you could live with trading a type A free agent
for an AAAA to and a fairly long-shot prospect to save 3 million dollars? I really don’t see how being aggressive in later rounds would make up for that when they should be doing that regardless.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Feb 12, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
We knew he was gonna be a type A, but he was still a gamble at that point.
He hadn’t really pitched enough to show whether he was still effective, and we really couldn’t know for sure if anyone would have had any interest in him with a first round pick attached. It turned out to be a lousy play it safe move, but I can live with that. Had he struggled down the stretch or been mishandled by the Mets medical staff (and we know how great a staff they are) he wouldn’t have netted the Mets anything, as well as costing 3 million dollars.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 12, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see how it was a play it safe move
He ended up netting us nothing anyway and we really didn’t gain anything but 3 million in salary relief. It’s not like we got real prospects back we got guys who were already considered non prospects, and not even decent non prospects like Nelson Cruz was a few years ago we got a guy with no defensive position and who’s bat wouldn’t even play as a DH and a 21 year old who hasn’t even been good in rookie ball. I feel like we would have had to been at risk of losing more than just 3 million for it to have been a gamble, and gained more than basically nothing for it to have been a safe move. I just don’t see how there’s any excuse for a big market team to trade a type A to save 3 million for non-prospects.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I wouldn't label Lora as a non-prospect yet.
He struggled in the GCL, but it was only 131 at bats. He was absolutely killing the DSL before his promotion, and that at least provides a somewhat larger sample. His plate discipline looks to be fairly good, so he could be a real asset if his power develops. Lora could easily end up being as good a prospect as either guy we would have drafted, although the odds say the draft picks would likely be worth more.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 12, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
I would strong disagree
that he could as easily end up being as good a prospect as guys we could have drafted with a first rounder and a supplemental, a lot of things would have to go right. And he was tearing up the DSL, but he was also old for the league, at least as fair as prospects go, and had a pretty awful season the year before. Basically what he has going for him is 120 at bats at age 20 in the DSL, and a lot of bad at bats surrounding them. I can see why he wouldn’t be a non prospect in the same vein that Carter is, but I’d say he’s too close to line between prospect/non prospect at this point for it to be considered a “safe trade” or any more than a straight salary dump, or for keeping Wagner to have been considered a “gamble”, as in something to lose other than the 3 million. Lora might be a little interesting but certainly not interesting enough to trade anything of value for.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
My mistake I didn't see that his stint in the dsl you were referencing
was in 2008, I thought it was last year so he would have only been 19. But still that means he’s a year removed from the short stint he looked productive.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
His approach at the plate seems to be alot like an Adam Dunn, with loads of walks and strikeouts.
His defense is supposedly fairly decent, and most scouting reports I’ve read on him think he’ll develop some decent power. At 21, we ought to get a look at whether or not that’s true, but if it does come he should be a guy to watch with an approach at the plate like he appears to have. He actually seems like a guy with a very similar skillset to Reece Havens, albeit at a far less valuable defensive position.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 12, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not disagreeing that he's interesting
just that he’s not interesting enough for it to make sense to trade a type A free agent when all your saving is 3 million dollars. There are a lot of instances where acquiring a player like Lora makes sense, and there are plenty of instances where trading Wagner might have made sense, they just don’t make sense together and I wouldn’t consider it a safe move. I mean is Lora a player, based on what we know, you’d take with a first rounder or a supplemental pick? he seems more like the kind of guy you might go overslot to sign in the much much much later rounds.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Agreed on that, but Omar doen't exactly have a great track record with the draft.
For every Ike Davis, he manages to find an Eddie Kunz. I can’t remember exactly, but I believe he only had two innings of work in when we traded him, so it was still a gamble as to whether or not he’d be able to perform well enough that any team would justify signing him as a type A. I didn’t like it at the time (and would still prefer the picks), but I can at least understand why the Mets might have wanted to just take whatever they could get out of him and dump the contract.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 12, 2010 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
To me the only way I could understand it
is if saving that 3 million was really significant, but for our team it shouldn’t be. And really as far as first rounders Omar hasn’t been that bad. I mean even Kunz was followed by Vineyard and Moviel, pretty high upside strong picks, really even though I totally disagreed with the philosophy they used for that draft, Kunz was the only “bad” pick. And he got Mulvey the year before in either the second round or the supplemental round.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Also Lora will be 21 in March
so it’s not like we’re talking about a fairly young guy who’s mostly projectables at this point.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Goldstein is the man
I have little trouble with this list. Havens could be higher, but the argument could be made that he needs to give a full seasons sample this year to get a more accurate gauge on him.
I already knew Goldstein really liked Tejada but he doesn’t think he can be a sure fire full timer. He had a good exchange with Toby Hyde about it last year. Hyde made the point that is contact rate is rather impressive. If his line drive rate is solid, he could start everyday in the majors. Goldstein conceded that, but felt that he lacked power to merit that projection.
I like Tejada
because if nothing else, if we hold onto him, it should mean never having to pay the Alex Cora’s of the world for at least 6 years.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Exactly!
We are slowly starting to accumlate depth. Our farm is at least going to start to produce some bullpen arms with electric arms in the next few years as well.
by Coolpapabell on Feb 12, 2010 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Or worst case
And Reyes leaves/is ineffective, hopefully have a cheap league averagish replacement for him by that time.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 12, 2010 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
and another thing
I too was also surprised that Goldstein gave Mejia a five start rating. I knew he was really high on him, but I thought his secondary offerings would have kept him down at four stars.
Its rare for a guy like Mejia to get five stars from Goldstein.
by Coolpapabell on Feb 12, 2010 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
More importantly...
How is Bobby Bonilla ahead of Robin Ventura on the list of 50 greatest Mets of all time?
Ventura had arguably one of the single greatest plays in Met history, outside of 1986.
Bonilla should be hung in effigy.
Agreed.
"Wait till Biggus Dickus hears about this!"
by scott from peekskill on Feb 13, 2010 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
What happened to Eddie Kunz?
Someone please give me an update on what happened to Eddie Kunz? Is he still injured? Done? Released? Why is his name not on any list of potential help?
He just hasn't been particularly good
as far as I know
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Roogy
He can’t get lefties out, so he seems to be affixed with the dreaded ROOGY label. He has also had bouts with his control. Additionally, he hasn’t really been acquainted with the weight room. I have read one report that called him soft, mentally as well as physically. It appears that thanks ITBSOHL he is likely to be only mentally soft.
by Coolpapabell on Feb 13, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
I'm still willing to give him a chance
A lot of people have pretty much ruled him out. He’s had crazy troubles against lefties, he hasn’t missed bats, and his command has been shaky at best. He definitely wasn’t the “fast moving” relief pitcher the Mets hoped they were getting, but sometimes relievers figure it out later. His velo is still good and gets a ton of grounders. Plus, I wanna see what he does now that Buffalo should be halfway decent this year. That whole Bisons team was such a disaster last year, save Fernando, Niese, and Figgy, I sometimes wonder if half the team just pretty much called it a season half-way through. I’m not saying I think Kunz did, but who knows what was going on with the coaching staff on that team, they were far and away one of the worst affiliated teams in the minors. With a better supporting system, I wonder if some of the guys who sucked and are repeating the level, at the very least, won’t suck quite so much. Especially for a reliever like Kunz, who was pretty much used as one of the top relievers on the team, now maybe they can focus his playing time on development rather than tactics a bit more and try to coax some results out of him that way.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 13, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
lets see what they got ?
i hope niese gets a shot at the 5th spot i like to see brad holt we all are waiting for ike davis and i wont give up on f mart just yet and thole might get some playing time later in the year cause santos won,t last the whole season ..
"I'm not going to pull a James K"
Sweet! Nice slap in the puss!
Are Havens or Flores going to be converted to a 2b? Seems logical seeing Reyes has SS locked up for the foreseeable future. Would be nice to have a slick fielding 2B again.
"Wait till Biggus Dickus hears about this!"
by scott from peekskill on Feb 13, 2010 12:04 AM EST reply actions
I don't think either are considered slick fielders.
I read Havens has improved a bit on his fielding, and could be a good enough 2B, but his meal ticket is his bat. Same as Flores, from all accounts he is a butcher.
"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring; besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic."
- CRASH DAVIS
Havens is fundamentally sound
But not super athletic. He wasn’t rangey enough for shortstop. But strong fundamentals and some decent coaching in terms of positioning could turn him into a very good second baseman.
Flores isn’t a shorstop, and probably isn’t a second baseman either. He’s possibly the slowest middle infielder in professional baseball right now, I’ve heard some reports go so far as to say his speed is a 20 on the 20-80 scouting scale. I doubt its quite that bad, but thats just a sense of how poor his speed is. Most attribute it to a foot injury he suffered when he was younger that was probably not treated properly. He does have a shortstop’s arm and infielder’s instincts though. He could probably be an average third baseman in time, with a good accurate arm and average-at-best range. Problem is, unless they send him to St. Lucie, which they may or may not, he’s probably going to be lined up alongside Marte for the forseeable future, though who knows if he can stick at third the way he played this year. Third still seems like the more likely shift to me than second base for Flores. First base is also a possibility, though like with Davis, his arm would be wasted a bit there. Outfield may be doubtful because of his poor speed.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 13, 2010 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
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