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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

Prospect Questions For Kevin Goldstein

On Friday we posted Kevin Goldstein's Top 11 Mets prospects from Baseball Prospectus. Kevin has agreed to answer some follow-ups from us, so drop your questions in the comments and we'll send along the best ones.

If you were going to ask whether Reese Havens took a dump on Kevin's front porch -- or committed some other crime against nature that would have led Kevin to rank him so low -- don't worry: we've already got that one on our list.

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From all the "flaws" a prospect might have, what do you see prospects improving and what don't usually change?

For example, for pitchers: lack of control, lack of a 3rd pitch, …
For position players: small range, stone gloves, lack of plate discipline, …

I mean, related to baseball skills, not counting health problems.

In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.

by Michkin on Feb 14, 2010 2:20 PM EST reply actions  

Kevin, Thanks for taking these quetions

Which CF prospects in any organization do you see as future MLB defensive stars at that position? Would Brett Jackson (Cubs AA) be on that list? Thank you

by t agee on Feb 14, 2010 3:20 PM EST reply actions  

kevin

how long should we allow for prospects like F-mart and Thole to develop, do you see them on the starting rotation in 2011 or is that to early of an expectation?

by scubaeric on Feb 14, 2010 3:34 PM EST reply actions  

Tejada

I feel as though he gets sold short on his plate discipline. He’s always had a decent ISOD, though some of it has been buttressed by high HBP numbers. When he was 17 and in an age appropriate level, he posted very strong walk totals. Considering that he’s been promoted so aggressively, don’t you think there’s a pretty decent chance his walk totals will climb?

by firejerrymanuel on Feb 14, 2010 3:51 PM EST reply actions  

I imagine it's a question of his power

even if you have a good eye if pitchers don’t think you can do much with a fastball they’re going to challenge you, and he hasn’t posted an ISO above .100

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Feb 14, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Adding to the question: does Tejada have a "high contact/low ISO" swing?

Like protecting the zone and foul pitches in full count until the pitcher walks him.

In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.

by Michkin on Feb 14, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

You guys might want to take a look at this re: Tejada

This is a link to Toby Hyde’s site. I linked a post where Toby Hyde and Kevin Goldstein discuss Tejada’s projections. I mentioned this on the BP top 11 prospect list post. Its a good read.

http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/2009/08/25/friday-chat-wrap-finding-a-comp-for-tejada/

by Coolpapabell on Feb 14, 2010 11:36 PM EST up reply actions  

realistic comparables?

jenrry mejia to ubaldo jimenez
brad holt to john maine
ruben tejada to asdrubal cabrera (someone already mentioned the MI w/ plate discipline connection)
kirk nieuwenhuis to curtis granderson (the ’09, sub .200 avg v. lefties version)
ike davis to chad tracy (the pre-injuries, 25+ hrs, 280+ avg model)
josh thole to jason kendall (offensively of course)

by Rob Castellano on Feb 14, 2010 4:01 PM EST reply actions  

Chad Tracy pre injuries wasn't a bad player

and seems like a pretty reasonable comparison, since people expect him to have a little above average 1b offense and about average defense. Unfortunately chad tracy pre-breakdown only existed for like 2-3 seasons so it’s hard to say what exactly that would entail, but if he means 2005 tracy, which I assume since he said 25+ homers, that would make Davis a 3.0-3.5ish WAR player, and I think tracy was worth an average of like 2.6 WAR the 3 seasons before his continual injuries, and hell on the mets 2.6 WAR is good enough to be a top 5 player. 2.6 WAR under team control for 6 years is a Godsend.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Feb 15, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks for answering these, Kevin.

1) Why did you put Wilmer Flores above Ike Davis?

2) What do you think of Eric Beaulac?

by Pat Andriola on Feb 14, 2010 4:15 PM EST reply actions  

Do you see

Martinez and Nieuwenhuis starting in the outfield in 2012?

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Feb 14, 2010 4:15 PM EST reply actions  

One more:

Do you see Zach Lutz ever being able to develop enough power to be a regular major league third baseman?

by Pat Andriola on Feb 14, 2010 4:27 PM EST reply actions  

Why is Bobby Parnell rated higher than Jon Niese on the best under 25 list?

I would think a starter who has already put up impressive numbers in the minors and majors would have more potential value than a projected career reliever.

"For $11.4 million you can actually get a good player. But of course this is one of the things foolish organizations do: They complain that they can't afford good players after spending millions of dollars on not-good players." --Rob Neyer

by boom_roasted on Feb 14, 2010 4:41 PM EST reply actions  

What improvements did Kyle Allen make as the year went along?

Specifically, did he add significant velocity? I’ve heard varying reports, but always that he’s had a decent fastball and projectable body type. Do you see him adding any more velocity as he moves up the system?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 14, 2010 5:17 PM EST reply actions  

Under the radar guys for 2010

Here are a few guys I think might be under the radar types, like Captain Kirk Nieuwenhuis was last year.

Aderlin Rodriguez 3B, Ron Harris OF, ZeErika Hall OF, Zach Lutz 3B, Cesar Puello RF, Rafael Fernandez OF, Jordany Valdespin 2B, Richard Lucas 3B, Matt Bouchard INF, Cam Maron C, John Freeman C, and I expect a breakout year for Reese Havens.

As for pitchers, I am looking for big years from: Armando Rodriguez, Juan Urbina, Carlos Vasquez, Scott Moviel, Dylan Gee, and hopefully Brant Rustich.

by TomSeaver on Feb 14, 2010 6:10 PM EST reply actions  

yeah whats the story on aderlin rodriguez

I remember when we signed him it was supposed to be a major deal but I haven’t heard anything about him since then.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Feb 14, 2010 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

i think he got some AB's in the GCL this year...

he’s pretty far off. i’d assume maybe he goes to Kingsport this season?

by Steve Schreiber on Feb 14, 2010 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm really looking forward to see what Lutz can do in Double-A

I feel like he went way under the radar this year. All the offensive attention from St. Lucie went to Davis, Havens, and Nieuwenhuis, but Lutz also quietly had a very strong season and like Nieuwenhuis an especially strong second half. If he and Duda are both in Bingo, that’s a ton of walks and OBP from the corner infield positions.

Hopefully Rustich can stay healthy too. If they finally just commit to leaving him in relief, I could see him as a surprise second half MLB contributor, and possibly a good one. He has the pure stuff to be a closer.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 14, 2010 8:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I imagine age is part of the issue for Lutz

as far as why he’s not on more radars, he’ll be 24 for his first full season of AA ball won’t he?

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Feb 14, 2010 9:01 PM EST up reply actions  

He'll be 24 in June so yes

But he gets a bit of a pass because he missed pretty much all of 2008. If he’d been struggling and repeating levels, that’d be one thing, but he hasn’t, when he’s played all he’s done is hit. Now he’s done it for a full season in a pretty harsh hitter’s environment and he was really one of the best hitters in the league, tied for second in OPS among qualifiers. And he’s not one dimensional. He’s a good defender, has above average power, draws plenty of walks. I could see him having a big year, possibly cracking Triple-A, and making himself nice trade bait and eventually getting an opportunity to play third base in a different organization.

If you use the MLE calculator at minorleaguesplits and translate his numbers to the HiA Carolina league, his line is .293 / .386 / .453. If you translate it to the California league, also HiA, its .318 / .420 / .499. If he’d done that, he’d be all over people’s radars, but he’d also have been sixth in the league in OPS, not second, so its really not that crazy (the FSL league leading OPS was .824, it was 1.055 in the CAL, and the league averages were .684 and .758, respectively, so the difference is really that huge).

Either way, its going to be fun to have decent Double and Triple-A teams for once. Fernando, Davis, Thole, Niese, maybe Tejada in Buffalo; Havens, Nieuwenhuis, Lutz, Holt, and Mejia in Bingo. Might be worth a few road trips this year.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 14, 2010 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

agree

about rustich, i think he desrves more attention as a future back end of the bullpen guy. i guys people don’t really care about those in the minors though…

though i have to say while i think its unlikely, i’m kind of hoping tejada at least starts bak in AA. if you look at him by year, his breakout 2009 was SO extraordinarily unlikely that i’d hate to press our luck by advancing him even further.

by Rob Castellano on Feb 15, 2010 9:40 AM EST up reply actions  

I understand the thinking behind leaving Tejada in Double-A

But at the same time, he earned himself enough good will that it could be taken as slightly insulting if they had him repeat a level. I think this is more the reason Davis goes straight to Triple-A, Tejada can be justified repeating, but especially in an organization like the Mets, and especially for young IFAs, they like to avoid having guys repeat levels after successful seasons spent entirely at one level. But they do also have Coronado, who arguably belongs in Triple-A before Tejada, simply by virtue of the fact that he makes more sense as an emergency replacement at this point.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 15, 2010 6:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Ade Rod

He started out on fire, .290 with a homer and ten RBI’s in his first 62 AB’s at GCL, but then he got hit by a pitch and broke his wrist, but he’s supposed to be fine for spring training, I hope he starts at Savannah.

by TomSeaver on Feb 14, 2010 6:18 PM EST reply actions  

Depends on where Marte is

If they have Marte staying at 3B in Savannah again Aderlin might have to stay in a extended spring training and start up with a short season league.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 14, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Who would you rather have Fernando Martinez or Dominic Brown and why?

Also if the Mets were to sign Yunieski Maya, where would he fit on this list?

by ror0071619 on Feb 14, 2010 8:05 PM EST reply actions  

Rank the following prospects in terms of which are most likely to contribute to the big league bullpen this year

Tobi Stoner, Roy Merritt, Brant Rustich, Nick Carr, Michael Antonini, Brad Holt, Jenrry Mejia, Ike Davis. Anyone else I missed who might be surprise bullpen contributor?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 14, 2010 9:48 PM EST reply actions  

He was a pitcher in college

Maybe if he can pull a reverse ankiel if he struggles with the bat?

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Feb 14, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I was thinking that too

but I hope to god it’s not this year

by Evan_S on Feb 14, 2010 10:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I know, it was kind of a joke

Kind of a way for KG to put a realistic cutoff point. If he puts Davis ahead of anyone, its pretty unlikely they’ll contribute.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 15, 2010 12:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Which of the three SS shortstops do you see being switched to play second base?

Tejada and Havens? One of these guys should fit well with some pop with the bat and a slick glove. Any chance we see one of them playing 2b when Castillo inevitably breaks down?

"Wait till Biggus Dickus hears about this!"

by scott from peekskill on Feb 14, 2010 10:46 PM EST reply actions  

definitely Havens.

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Feb 15, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I'll echo this one.

I’ve heard two, somewhat contradictory reports on Mejia: He’s raw and unpolished, to a degree, but has the potential to be a front-of-the-rotation starter, if he can put everything together that he needs to. I’ve also heard, though, that his best use might be as a closer. Which of the two is more likely?

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 14, 2010 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Hypothetical: You're running the Mets FO.

It’s June. Presuming everyone’s stock stays roughly where it is now, in what/whose direction are you looking when the Mets’ pick (#7) rolls around? What players are you considering?

by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Feb 14, 2010 11:48 PM EST reply actions  

Perhaps this is a little off topic

but it is a difficult question about a “Mets prospect” for 2010 nonetheless and I would greatly appreciate hearing Kevin Goldstein’s professional opinion on the matter.

Mr. Kevin Goldstein, what do you make of Jeff Francoeur and his chances of maintaining and even building upon his hitting success with the Mets in the second half of last season? There is no doubt that he’s a physically gifted athlete with a cannon arm and a sweet power stroke. His defense is questionable, but it’s clearly Jeff’s approach at the plate that is limiting his value. The consensus here is that his second half last year was BABIP fueled and that he’ll certainly regress in 2010.

I’m asking this question because I haven’t seen many professional scouts and writers touch upon what they think about Francoeur going forward, other than a few people saying “maybe all he needed was a change of scenery.” There is an outspoken segment of AA ready to write off Francoeur because they don’t think he’s willing to change and can’t possibly be worth his 2010 contract. But he made noticeable improvements from 06 (first full season) to 07 and he’s been quoted as saying he tried anything the coaches and his fellow players suggested during the slump in 08. It’s also pretty clear that “beefing up” before the 08 season affected his playing style.

You’ve been able to observe him for quite some time. Can he become a 40-60 BB per year/ .330 OBP player? Does he need to in order to be successful? Can he adopt a style of success similar to other notable free swingers, such as Pablo Sandoval, Vlad G and Eric Byrnes? Can the Mets possibly transform an archenemies “golden home boy” into their worst nightmare?

On a side note, what are your personal opinions about UZR and the other advanced defensive metrics? Should we be taking these metrics with a huge grain of salt or just a small one? In either case, it seems aggressive positioning is a trend the Mets should be employing in 2010.

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 15, 2010 12:15 PM EST reply actions  

"Mets prospect" Jeff Francoeur?

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Feb 15, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

He just barely missed the under 25 status, so he kind of fits

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 15, 2010 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess if you ignore his 4+ years of MLB service time . . .

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Feb 15, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

people please

There was quotations for a reason.

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 15, 2010 8:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Haha, classic!

"Wait till Biggus Dickus hears about this!"

by scott from peekskill on Feb 16, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

He's tried swinging at less pitches

the problem is it doesn’t seem like he’s tried swinging at less bad pitches.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Feb 15, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

squid,

I said he made noticeable improvements from 06 to 07 (1 WAR to 3.6 WAR). From 07 through the first half of 09, he regressed mightily at the plate. That’s a year and half.

I’d really like to hear Goldstein’s opinion and see if he has any insights..

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 15, 2010 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

The WAR difference

was almost entirely because of defense, not changes in his offense.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Feb 15, 2010 8:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually

his Batting improved by 17.2, while his Fielding only improved 8.8 from 06 to 07. The difference in WAR was 66% offense, 33% defense and 1% grission haha

I won’t go through all the numbers… all you have to do is go look at them, but the notables ones include doubling his walk rate over 06 and increasing his AVG, OBP and wOBA by ~ .030 for each.

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 15, 2010 9:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah I see what you mean

but it seems like his batting only improved because it was so awful before, it went from well below average to slightly average, probably below average for the position, which I think is around where it is now, his WAR was still pretty defensive heavy. His problem now is his offense and still around the same averageish/below average for the position but his defense is completely in the toilet.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Feb 15, 2010 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

yeeeesh

.260 isn’t that bad. AVG really isn’t that important. Werth was .268 last year.

As for defense:
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/12/16/1202859/point-of-contention-jeff

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 15, 2010 10:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't care about hsi .260 average

I care about his continually sub .800 ops, that now comes along with poor defense, last year werth opsed .879 with and had .382 wOBA, along with strong defense.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Feb 15, 2010 10:46 PM EST up reply actions  

whoops, misread that

Francouer’s OPS was .836 and wOBA was .350 with the Mets in the second half last year. Not too shabby.

Werth’s defense was actually rather mundane and unimpressive last year.

Lets focus on the Werth and the Francoeur comparison though. Werth is 5 years Francoeur’s senior. From age 21 through 25 (essentially equivalent to the ages Francoeur has been in the majors), Werth was knocking around in the minor leagues, where he consistently posted sub .800 OPS full seasons (against inferior competition, mind you).

Generally speaking, most players see a spike in power between age 26 and 27, which results in increases in SLG and OPS.

Just some food for thought.

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 15, 2010 11:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Werth always posted above average walk rates though

, outside of 2003 he’s never been below 9%, and even his 9% year was the only year he was below double digits. Frenchy adding more power wouldn’t really affect his offense much, he hits for power now but he also swings at, and sometimes makes contact and bad outs with, on so many bad pitches that it brings his slugging down, a lot of ground outs and weak singles on pitches he should be laying off. Plus pitchers aren’t going to be throwing you many fast balls when you swing at pitches at your head level and in the dirt. There’s not a lot of reason to think a sudden spike in power would make much of a difference with Frenchy at this point, unless it was just a massive spike not the type you’d typically expect between 26 and 27.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Feb 15, 2010 11:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Again

I’m much more interested in what Goldstein thinks Francoeur is capable of offensively going ahead or what could be done to improve him. Players have succeeded with low walk rates and if you project francoeur’s power for 2010 off his first 2-3 seasons, he could be a 30-33 HR hitter, which is probably a massive improvement over what you’re thinking his power is. Heck, even a 20-25 HR season would be welcome improvement.

For Francoeur to improve over all, It may be as simple as better protection and a lower spot in the lineup. His career stats show he’s a significantly better hitter in the 5th spot, even though he hit 6th more often than not in ATL. You can definitely write off a portion of that improvement to expectation (better hitters hit lower in the lineup), but batting 5th for the Mets this year would probably mean Wright or Bay (when Beltran’s healthy) batting 6th. Pitchers would simply be forced to throw more strikes and fastballs to Francoeur on average.

Factor in that Francoeur basically never had protection in ATL… he was always batting behind McCann, Jones the KO machine and Jones the injury prone, with Kelly Johnson and other unimpressive hitters batting behind him.

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 17, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

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