The Mets in 2010--Part One: The Lineup versus Righthanded Pitching

by SeanSchirmer on Feb 21, 2010 2:54 AM EST

The Mets, a team that can crush a lefthander, will struggle this year against righthanded pitching.

The Met are going to struggle mightily to play .500 ball against righthanded pitchers. Every regular with the exception of Daniel Murphy hits better against lefties than they do against righties. The differences range from Rod Barajas, who is 30 points of OPS worse against rhp, to David Wright, who is 173 points worse. This, by the way, is a nice measure of how good a hitter Wright is. Against righties his slash line is a still impressive.295/.372/.492/.864. Castillo, by the way, is a very solid hitter for his career (.294/.363/.422/.785) against southpaws, but is only good for walks and a few singles against rhp. Add to that his bunting skill and he's a perfectly good, old-fashioned number 2 hitter behind Reyes. Here's how the lineup performs against righties. The last number is the difference in that player's OPS versus lefthanded pitchers:

2b both Castillo v rhp .292/.371/.330/701 -84

ss both Jose Reyes v rhp .281/.332/.429/761 -42

lf rhb Bay v rhp .278/.370/.514/883 -51

3b rhb Wright v rhp .295/.372/.492/864 -173

cf both Beltran v rhp .279/.358/.488/846 -39

1b lhb Murphy v rhp.282/.340/.436/775 +43

rf rhb Francoeur v rhp .260/.300/.410/709 -118

c rhb Barajas v rhp .240/.282/.402/684 -30

When Carlos Beltran is in the lineup the Mets *should* play Pagan against righties instead of Francouer, and bat Pagan and his .299/.350/.452/.802 against righthanded pitching sixth in the lineup, behind Beltran and ahead of Murphy. The Mets unfortunately aren't paying Jeff Francouer $5 million to be the short side of an OF platoon. In an unhappy example of inept roster construction the Mets had the chance to supplement Pagan's consderable and inexpensive skills by signing a cheap hitter to take the short side of a platoon with him. Pagan in his career is a .245/.291/.425/717 hitter against lefthanded pitching and could have used some help from that side. Instead, the Mets picked up Francouer, who hits 100 points worse against righties than Pagan does, and remarkably enough plan to *start* Francouer against righties. For what it's worth, even in his "revival" year with the Mets in 2009 Francouer hit a dreadful .255/.291/.385/676 against right-handed pitching.

In a second example of shoddy roster construction Alex Cora's hitting skills do not complement Castillo's. As I noted above Castillo is all singles (and not many of those) and walks against rhp. Against rhp Cora puts up a nearly useless .241/.311/.342.653 line. Like Castillo he's better against lefties, though in Cora's case this means he hits all of .274/.331/.359/689 against lefthanders. In a third, regrettable example of how not to build a roster, the Mets have managed to acquire a left-left platoon in Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco. Like Barajas, Blanco can't hit righthanders, putting up a dismal line of .220/.280/.346/627.

In a nutshell, there it is. Part Two will look at the Mets versus lefthanded pitching, against which they're likely to fare dramatically better. In point of fact, we'll see that if the Mets could flip their roster and hit righties the way they hit lefties, even if they hit lefties the way they hit righties the team would be a powerhouse.

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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Reyes, Wright, Beltran and Castillo were gonna be on this team no matter what. Bay was a good pickup, but over priced. There wasn’t any real obvious solution for first base, I’d have liked Johnson, but he, like every other option, had issues that could scare away a team. When Beltran is healthy, Pagan will replace Francoeur in right because, Francoeur sucks. So that’s seven of the eight positions with only first base being a position we could have upgraded versus right handers. And finally, I posted this before, since 2002, Barajas has had a wOBA of .300 against LHP and a wOBA of .301 against RHP. There wasn’t much room for upgrading the catcher’s spot. Zaun would have been great or making a play for Shoppach, but having Barajas for one to two million is a good thing. What exactly should the Mets have done to improve their team against right handed hitters? It’s not like there were any slam dunk acquisitions to be made for first base or catcher.

Nobody is saying this was a great, or even average off season, but you’re making like we traded Reyes for Betancourt and signed Jason Marquis to a five year $50 million deal. We got marginally better from last year by acquiring Bay, we didn’t make any stupid trades or have any Ollie like signings. There are plenty of things to get angry about with those front office, the signing of Barajas isn’t one of them.

by Evan_S on Feb 21, 2010 6:34 AM EST reply actions

I'm sorry, but

unless Francoeur is absolutely horrible, and Pagan looks brilliant, I can’t see Pagan taking the everyday RF job. Not when he’s the one who could play all three outfield positions.

by Trey111 on Feb 21, 2010 4:19 PM EST up reply actions

Right. That's exactly what I said.

by SeanSchirmer on Feb 22, 2010 1:25 AM EST up reply actions

Who's angry? What on earth are you talking about?

‘The Mets are going to struggle against righthanders.’ Does that really sound like a diatribe to you?

As for the front office’s inability to simply assemble a sensible platoon at any of the four positions they had a clear opportunity to do so, what’s so objectionable to you about my pointing that out? Their failure is simply, plainly, sadly idiotic. Defending that failure doesn’t make any sense.

The Mets had an OFer in Pagan who actually can hit righthanders. So, they replaced him—moved him to the bench—in favor of a guy, Francouer, who can’t hit righthanders. At all. Does that make sense to you?

Then, they had a 2bman they wanted to keep in Castillo, who can’t hit righties at all. So, to compensate, the FO went out and got another guy who… can’t hit righties at all.

And if that wasn’t enough, the Mets brought in a good defender at catcher who can’t hit righties, at all. Then went out and got another decent glove at catcher who is actually worse at hitting righties than the first guy. Add to this the manager’s assertion a couple of days ago that Murphy, an ideal platoon candidate, is not only not in competition for the job of 1bman, but that the team isn’t even interested in platooning him.

As for noting that the Barajas signing was actually worse than pointless, what’s the problem here? He had an OBP of .258 last year.

.258.

Think about it. I believe that was the lowest OBP of any regular in the major leagues. And people think this was a GOOD move? How can that be? How does spending one to two million dollars on Rod Barajas do anything but move this club further away from contending?

by SeanSchirmer on Feb 22, 2010 1:25 AM EST up reply actions

The angry comment was not really cause of this post

but many you have made recently.

First off, Barajas is better against right handed pitchers than Blanco, since 2002 Barajas’ wOBA has been .301 and Blanco’s .260 vs. right handed pitchers. Second, that paltry OBP should bounce back closer to .300. His BABIP was .229 and his average was .226. With the exception of last year, every season he has started the majority of games, which he’ll probably get this year if he’s the starting catcher, he’s batted at least .249 and had a .276 on base percentage (his first season as a starting catcher, the other three seasons, his on base percentage was .306, .298, .294). CHONE predicts him being a 1.5 WAR player, and even using the more pessimistic fans predictions for batting, replacement and positional along with last years TotalRuns number from Driveline Mechanics would have him at 1 WAR. If we’re going to have a catcher with a sub .300 on base percentage, at least we’ll have one who can hit 15 to 20 homers.

by Evan_S on Feb 22, 2010 3:38 AM EST up reply actions

Oh

And even last year, with his terrible on base percentage and all, he had positive value. He’s a good defender with solid pop hitting eighth. We all would have preferred a guy like Zaun but this was not a bad signing.

by Evan_S on Feb 22, 2010 3:47 AM EST up reply actions

Saying he had positive value is really gilding the lily.

Fangraphs WAR undervalues OBP. As for CHONE, amazingly enough, it projects a 34 year old catcher to suddenly put up a WAR of 1.5, something he hasn’t done in four years, and something he hasn’t come close to in 3 of those years. CHONE is obviously way, way off on this.

by SeanSchirmer on Feb 22, 2010 4:04 AM EST up reply actions

WAR undervalues OBP?

The batting runs from WAR come from wOBA which is the best tool available to evaluate hitters and it doesn’t undervalue OBP.

by Evan_S on Feb 22, 2010 4:23 AM EST up reply actions

wOBA weights OBP only slightly more than it does SLG, whereas

we know that the ratio is close to 1.7 to 1. It’s too conservative in that regard, and therefore seriously overvalues ballplayers with excruciatingly low OBPs.

by SeanSchirmer on Feb 26, 2010 3:52 AM EST up reply actions

I've never heard this before

Can you prove it?

by Evan_S on Feb 26, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

That makes no sense

wOBA gives each individual event the proper weights. It gets it exactly right. Something like 1.7* OBP + SLG would only be a flawed approximation.

Now, it might be true situationally that it would be wrong. You are using the average value for all events, but it might be true that in a specific spot, different events would be worth more. So it does probably get it wrong for leadoff hitters, for example, since they come to the plate with less men on base, and so OBP is more valuable there (but more valuable than 1.7:1 as well).

by acerimusdux on Feb 27, 2010 1:34 AM EST up reply actions

I'm curious where Sean heard that

I’ve read a decent amount on wOBA for the last year or so and never heard anything remotely about it not weighing OBP properly.

by Evan_S on Feb 27, 2010 5:54 AM EST up reply actions

So Luis Castillo is actually underrated?

"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green

by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 22, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

Yes. He avoids making outs. That's the most valuable offensive skill

a player can have.

by SeanSchirmer on Feb 26, 2010 3:53 AM EST up reply actions

He has a career .369 OBP

It’s good, but not that good.

by Evan_S on Feb 26, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions

I'd rather you didn't try psychoanalyze posts. I never write things like

“Fuck Omar”, or “The FO is stoooooopid”. I always back up my posts with analysis. I’d like to write happy stuff, like, “hey, the Mets picked up Kiko Calero for 2/3. Great move!” or, swooping in and getting Orlando Hudson for 1/5 was a great way to make sure 2b doesn’t turn into a black hole", but the best i can do given the terrible offseason is say, as I did, “picking up Coste cheap was a smart move. If he bounces back it’s a great move,” or “getting Blanco, a good glove that can hit lefties a little for $750,000, was a good move.”

Unfortunately that’s about the extent of it.

“First off, Barajas is better against right handed pitchers than Blanco,… "

This is truly damning with faint praise, given Barajas has a .684 career OPS against righties, along with a .282 OBP. Last year, as a 34 year old catcher, Barajas put up this slash line against righthanders: .213/.241/.377/618. That’s a .241 OBP. .241. That was in 343 plate appearances. And he’s in decline.

" Second, that paltry OBP should bounce back closer to .300."

I don’t see how, His career OBP is .284. He’s 34. He’s in decline. He’s hugely unlikely to get his OBP close to.300.

“he’s batted at least .249 and had a .276 on base percentage” (emphasis mine).

And this is your selling point? It’s a disastrous stat. It’s about the worst in the major leagues.

" If we’re going to have a catcher with a sub .300 on base percentage, at least we’ll have one who can hit 15 to 20 homers."

Except that the homers he hit don’t come close to making up for all the outs he makes. He’s the leader in outs per AB. That’s not a stat moderate power can overcome.

You only sign Rod Barajas when you’ve utterly screwed up the offseason, and have a bunch of catchers who can’t hit or can’t stay in the lineup. You get him because you need a warm body to keep balls from rolling to the backstop. What you don’t do is voluntarily sign him. He’s a last resort, He’s an awful pickup by a FO that couldn’t identify its needs and was hellbent, for god knows what reason, on picking up Bengie Molina. Failing that this is Plan Z.

by SeanSchirmer on Feb 22, 2010 3:57 AM EST up reply actions

Incidentally, that Barajas's low BABIP in 2009 is consistent with a player in decline.

I’m a lot less confident than you that it’s going to rebound.

More fly balls, more infield popups… it looks like he’s elevated his swing because all he has left is to swing for the fences.

A 34 year old with a career and major league low OBP is an excellent candidate never to be better than replacement level again. That’s a spring training NRI. That’s not the guy you anoint as your starter.

by SeanSchirmer on Feb 22, 2010 4:11 AM EST up reply actions

Let's see

Phillies are project to have 3 L SP’s in the rotation.
Braves ~ 1/2
Nationals 2
Marlins 1

Yep, Mets are going to have problems against everyone except the Phillies (on days Halladay and Blanton don’t pitch), but that was obvious well before this fanpost.

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 21, 2010 2:46 PM EST reply actions