Defending F-Mart
Yup.
about 2 years ago
Pat Andriola
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Seems like the same approach KLaw took in doing his list
Dropping him because he can’t stay healthy, which seems a little silly, being that none of his injuries have been related, and the most serious one was a few years ago now when he broke his hamate bone. If anything, that should have earned him at least a season of good grace to get his power back, even forgetting he was in a level way to advanced for him at the time. And of course, now that he finally showed he got his power back by crushing Triple-A pitching for two months, now its time to start writing him off and dropping him spots.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 23, 2010 5:12 PM EST reply actions
as I commented on there
they don’t think he can stay healthy. Period. Agree or disagree that’s the reason and it makes the ranking totally understandable.
Yeah as far as this
even though his injuries haven’t been related I know some schools of thought consider durability to be a skill set in itself, albeit more in football related discussion than baseball where injuries are obviously more prevalent. Some people are just plain more injury prone for whatever reason even if the injuries aren’t related/all seem freak.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
That begs the theoretical question:
What’s more valuable? An “established” prospect (in the latter stages of development) who’s had troubles in the same vein as Fernando Martinez, or a “less established” prospect (in the earlier stages of development), who is not ready for the MLB anytime soon, and is running on hype more than substance?
How official listings weigh those things, I’ll admit, sometimes puzzles me. Is raw and untapped potential more or less valuable than experience and “time put in”?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 23, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
I wasn't using the phrase in that sense.
Or, are you one of those “prescriptive grammarians” mentioned in the ‘Modern Usage’ section? And, does anyone else get the mental image of a very angry librarian when reading the term “prescriptive grammarians”?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 23, 2010 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Also on top of the injuries
there’s the pretty bad bb/k numbers, even in a break out triple AAA season, along with the fact he’s not expected to actually play a premium position in the major league level, and there’s a big difference between offensive expectations for a corner outfield spot and for centerfield. Even with the power if his obp & bb/k numbers don’t majorly improve he’s not going to be THAT above average offensively, and since he’s not projected to be an other worldly defender, his ceiling looks a lot lower than it did 2-3 years ago.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
yeah i guess
but that still doesn’t explain the huge drop. i’ll use the same player pat a. used in his article, josh vitters has even worse bb/k numbers, struggled in A-ball and plays if not a less premium position then at least one of equal worth at 3B.
by Rob Castellano on Feb 23, 2010 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
3b is actually considered a premium position
it’s equal to 2nd and cf in positional adjustments, with a +2.5 run adjustment, vs rf and lf which are -7.5.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
The positional change shouldn't matter much though
Since as much as he loses for positional adjustment, he gains in defensive value in a corner. Outfielders who are already playing center field generally shouldn’t be judged by the position they play. He is what he is. Either a slightly below average center fielder or well above average corner outfielder. This isn’t as true for guys already playing in a corner, since they have no defensive value to gain, and since there’s much less data to suggest that moving to CF would simply cost them 10 defensive runs to cancel out the positional adjustment. It doesn’t happen nearly as frequently that a corner guy moves to center, so it may not work both ways.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 23, 2010 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
Isn't that assuming he'd be an above average corner out fielder though
we don’t actually know that do we? It’s possible he could be a slightly less bad outfielder or a average fielder in the corners. And with his current bb/k numbers he’d have to be a pretty strong fielder to be a well above average player in the corners.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
The general assumption is that
Most players who have been playing CF for the majority of their careers would gain about 10 defensive runs moving to a corner. Its not something you necessarily expect immediately, there might be a period of minor adjustment, but research has shown that this is generally what you expect to find. Tom Tango researched the phenomenon here and here. In 2007, outfielders switching between a corner/center gained/lost an average of 9 defensive runs. In 2008 it was more like 11 defensive runs, so a baseline assumption of 10 runs seems within reason.
So my claim is that if he is a slightly below average center fielder, say -2.5, he’ll be a well above average corner outfielder, about +7.5.
The term being popularized to describe this is the “tweener fallacy,” which is a bit misleading, because it assumes that everything works both ways. I’m not convinced this would necessarily be true of an averagish corner outfielder moving to CF. It may, but there’s less data to support that. Plus, “tweener” is still a valid term. It simply means that a player doesn’t have enough combination of offense and defense to be a major league outfielder, even though he may have a bit of both rather than just one and not the other. “Tweener” should also still apply to infielders and catchers, where defensive skillsets don’t translate so well from position to position.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 24, 2010 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
And apparently the huge drop is primarily because of injuries
like Sam said above. Which is a legitimate concern, when a guy hasn’t passed 90 games or 400 PAs, in 4 straight years at some point it’s hard to believe it’s simply bad luck.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Its still tough to tell what's cause and effect here
The idea that a player playing against competition much more advanced than him can lead to a proneness to injuries seems somewhat intuitive. These are the same people who complained about how he failed to produce in years prior, and now that he did produce, albiet only for a relatively short time, he’s getting dumped on?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 23, 2010 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
Fernando's injury history just kills him as a prospect.
His ABs per season are 308, 237, 364, 267.
What percent of prospects who have lost that much time to injury have succeeded in the majors? It must be very, very low.
His career minor league OBP is .339. That would be extremely low for a top prospect. You’d have to be a top glove man up the middle for that weak an OBP to put you in the top100, and Fern isn’t even a top glove man at an undemanding position. His walk rate hasn’t improved, either. Not by the smallest fraction of a percentage point. That bodes very poorly for his prospects.
He hasn’t cut down his K rate either. It’s not terrible, but the total lack of improvement is discouraging. In fact, his profile at 20 is essentially identical to what it was at age 17. That’s a guy who’s not learning. He’s not learning to make contact, he’s not learning to take a walk. His SLG dropped in his second pro year, then rebounded. It’s almost exactly what it was in his rookie year. It’s good that he’s taking his game with him as he moves up, but what he’s taking with him is his career slash line of .282/.339/.446/785. That is not impressive for a would-be top prospect who plays LF. Add in his injury history and the only thing you can like is his age. That’s impressive, but less so when you consider he doesn’t seemed to have improved any aspect of his game in the four years he’s been playing professional baseball—and his low ABs means he’s lost around two years of development time. If we assume he needs to regain those lost years his baseball age is 22, not 20.
I sincerely doubt he’ll ever be more than a 4th OFer.
Yeah someone on the THT posted a link to Sickels 2005 top hitters review
and basically every top hitting prospect that had the age/level curve going for them that didn’t make it where derailed because of either 1. poor bb/k or 2. injuries, F-mart’s struggling with both.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Besides not looking at the context in which those numbers were put up,
your conclusions are wrong. If he lost two seasons, that would make his baseball age 18 not 22. How can you add two years for lost time? Either way it’s a stupid statement to make. He’s 20, let’s see what he does playing at 20. Secondly, he’ll either be an everyday player or AAAA player. Why would a team want an outfielder who’s not a good fielder strikes out and doesn’t walk a lot? If he strikes out less and walks more, he’ll be an everyday player. And finally, you say he hasn’t improved anywhere, yet his ISO was ~80 points higher than it’s ever been, so his power has improved greatly.
The only concern there is with Fernando at this point is his injuries. Plate discipline improves with age and now that he’s finally at a point where he can’t be rushed any further, we’ll actually see what he can do against more age appropriate competition.
The only problem with this
Is that you’re analyzing two seasons in which Fernando begain the year as the youngest player in his league, 2007 and 2008. He was also one of the youngest players in his leagues in 2006 and 2009. There was some improvement over this time, and the raw data is obscured by the fact that he just didn’t belong in the leagues he was playing in.
Also, his K% has improved. From 21.6% in 2007 in Double-A to 18.8% in Triple-A in 2009, may not seem like a huge difference, but with the level jump and his relative ages, and considering it was only 15.5% in 100 big league PA’s, that’s enough to call it a substantial improvement.
You also have a similar improvement in his ISO. .106 in 2007, .145 in 2008, and .250 in 2009, albiet in too small a sample to really analyze, but a .100 point increase is still enough to assume it would have been higher than it was the previous year if he’d gotten another few hundred PAs, and again, in a more advanced league. He hit as many HR in 2009 as he did in twice as many PAs in 2008. And his BABIP was actually a bit down from where it was in 2007 and 2008.
The other thing to remember is that since he’s left the SAL, he’s been in one of the six lowest run environments in the minors. If you translate his 2008 line to the Texas League, basically a dead average run environment at the same level (Double-A), his line would have been .294 / .352 / .445, which while hardly eye popping, would have been considered excellent for a 19 year old in Double-A.
Injuries are a problem for Fernando, but he has some major league tools that are difficult to come by. He may never develop the walk rate to consistently produce at the major league level, but lets wait until he catches up to the average age for Triple-A prospects at least before we determine that for certain.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 26, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
Even with the improvement in k rate
and iso, at least in my opinion, the bb/k is still a huge red flag, if he’s playing in a corner even if he’s slugging that bb/k is going to translate pretty roughly to the major leagues, and even at only 21 how much improvement in that rate can you expect in the next 1.5 years?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Hard to say, but BB/K isn't a single skill persay
I understand its troubling, but I’ve always found it much tougher to use for hitters than pitchers. They’re separate but related skills. For pitchers, the relationship of the two skills defines a large part of their value. For hitters, not so much. The thing I always said in previous years about this is that while his BB/K is ugly, its not because either his walk rate or his strikeout rate are THAT far below average. His strikeout rate is where you expect a power hitter’s to be, maybe even a bit better. His walk rate is below average, but not anemic. He’s been a bit under 7% (using PAs as the denominator, which I don’t believe fangraphs does) in his career. Average is somewhere in the 8.5-9% range.
I have to go back to the fact that Fernando’s been one of the youngest players in his leagues most years. He’s only really started to scratch his power potential, he’s never been considered a tactical offensive threat before, even his production in terms of ARL was borderline acceptable. Now he’ll be in a lineup with Ike Davis, a hitter who seemed to learn the value of patience after a slowish start last year, and a much more appropriate age for his level. He showed some signs of finally translating his power into a useful skill. If he hits 10 HR in the first half and his walk rate is about 6-7% it will probably come up in the second half, maybe to 7.5-8% by the end of the year.
People make this argument about Josh Thole all the time. It will be hard for him to sustain his walk rate in the majors without more power, because pitchers will throw him more strikes. So he could have the best batting eye in the world and put the ball in play a ton, but his OBP will probably always be somewhat average dependent. Its the opposite for F-Mart. Now that he’s beginning to hit for more power, pitchers will be nibbling and picking at the corners against him more, trying to get him to swing at bad pitches. He may not make the adjustment, but he’ll have much more opportunity to now than he would have before, when pitchers just did their best to throw him strikes and let him get himself out because he just wasn’t advanced enough to deal with that.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 26, 2010 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
It was .60 at 20 in AAA
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Right, I wasn't sure
And I forgot where I saw that list and didn’t feel like digging around for it.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Feb 26, 2010 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
That makes sense to me. We really do underestimate how difficult it is to succeed in the majors.
People also tend to disregard the fact that time lost to injuries is time lost in the “classroom”. If you’re hurt you’re not out on the field doing the endless repetitions that lead to success. You’re not facing the thousands of pitches you need to see and respond to in order to becomes a successful major league hitter. Fernando probably needs to see 12,000-15,000 pitches at the minor league level in order to maximize his chances to succeed in the majors. To date, because of the injuries, he’s seen about half that.
I was discouraged, too, by his ML performance. He looked completely overmatched, and the stats agree. It’s a small data point given the number of PAs, but it’s not a small data point in his favor.
That's a pretty apt comparison, the field being a classroom.
I will bring up, though, that time not spent on the field doesn’t equate to sitting around and having your baseball acumen rust, or even drop, though. The time spent recovering from injury, or whatever else, can be put to use increasing one’s baseball skills, watching videos, working on, say, aerobics or some other form of exercise not related to the injury (if possible), or other similar activities.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 26, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
God damn it, I never finish the thought...
To use the school analogy again, when you’re sick and staying at home, you can still study your books, and be somewhat prepared when you go back. Odds are, you’re not going to absorb as much as if the teacher was teaching you (I know, at least for me, this is the case. I’ve been trying to learn Turkish via books and study, but I have so much trouble learning language without an actual teacher), but you’ll generally net some increase in what you know.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 26, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
The age 20 season is usually the tell tale season for a player in the majors
Manny Ramirez 21 years old- .170/.200/.302/.502, .223 wOBA, 2 BBs (3.6% BB%), 8 Ks (15.1% K%), 2 HRs, 55 PA
Fernando Martinez 20 years old- .176/.242/.275/.517, .240 wOBA 5 BBs (5% BB%), 14 Ks (15.4% K%), 1 HR, 100 PA
And no, I’m not saying Fernando=Manny, I’m saying his time with the Mets last year was meaningless.
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