Our National Baseball Laboratory
(bumped from fanposts. --eric)
So far as I know, no one in the sabermetric community has ever conducted a true baseball experiment. All we ever do is observe, analyze, analyze, observe, model, observe, observe, analyze, zzzzzzZZzzZZzz.
There's a simple reason for it, and it's the misapplication of government funds. For just a portion of the cost of the $9 billion Large Hadron Collider in Geneva, Switzerland, a group of sabermetricians could buy a representative sample of major league baseball teams, build a compound with its own zip code, and finally get to work.
I'm not the man to engineer these fancy and important experiments, but I do have a few ideas...
Experiment #1: JUICE EM: An eight year trial where each team's 4 hitter is taken on and off steroids in alternating years. All else same.
Experiment #2: THE MYSTICAL 90 FEET: One complete season in which there are 88 feet between the bases. See if wild game-killing chaos ensues.
Experiment #3: POSITIONING SWAPPING: A three season run in which all center fielders play short stop, all shorts stops play first, and all second basemen play right. How hard could it be?
Experiment #4: THE MAXIMUM BATTING AVERAGE: A three year run in which only fastballs down the middle may be thrown, like you used to do in video games sometimes. A guy could hit, what, .600? .550?
Experiment #5: DON'T STEP OUT OF THE FRICKIN BATTER'S BOX: A two season experiment to see if hitters could possibly cope with this injunction.
Experiment #6: DO MANAGER'S MATTER?: After some initial data collecting every team's manager is fired mid-season and replaced with a baseball scientist and his laptop. The scientist promises not to intuit things. Half-season manager, half-season nerd, full season nerd, full season manager, half-season manager, half-season nerd.
Experiment #7: SECOND TIME THROUGH THE ORDER...: For two seasons each batter is responsible for his whole half-inning of offense. Leadoff man bats 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and maybe 4th or 5th, too, until there are three outs. Running the bases is accomplished entirely through pinch-runners who stand at home plate and book it to first when the ball is in play. (This is what I thought a pinch-runner did when I was little.)
Experiment #8: COMPLETE GAMES: Teams are warned five years in advance that the league will switch to allowing a max four man rotation and one pitcher per game, except in rare cases. Another five seasons are given to determine how pitchers are able to make this work, presumably with different deliveries and strategies.
Experiment #9: CHESS: All nine men must bat once before any man bats twice, but a manager gives no pre-set order and may change the order each time through the rotation on a batter-by-batter basis. Man, we'd have a lot to talk about on gamethreads.
Experiment #10: THE DEAD BALL ERA: An all throwback equipment league. Heavy bats, dead balls, tiny gloves, starchy uniforms. To control the variables you'd probably want to introduce them one at a time...
Experiment #11: PITCHERS CAN ACTUALLY HIT: For one season only, anyone on the diamond other than the pitcher is permitted to pitch to the opposing team's pitcher. See if that's any more fun.
Experiment #12: DEFENSIVE ALIGNMENTS: The aforementioned baseball scientist spends three seasons fine-tuning defensive alignments for each individual batter faced. Time is called before every at-bat and the nerd may decide to, say, play a four man outfield, or put his center fielder in left, or play a truly laughable shift, etc., to try to gain that slight advantage. Like Disco Hayes was wondering about...
Experiment #13: GRISSION: Huh, dunno. What to do here?
Well, there are some ideas to start out with. Most are not particularly scientific. You could do a lot of more fruitful things, of course, introducing far tinier variables and seeing how they play out over long amounts of time with great big sample sizes.
Anyway, got anything you'd try in our limitless lab?
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
72 comments
|
6 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Don't think that's true
The DoE and NSF kicked in a few hundred million. According to this, about $550 million.
man, could you imagine all the strategy?
it might have the nice effect of convincing even the layman that the current crop of managers and commentators are unqualified.
by Pack Bringley on Feb 4, 2010 8:53 AM EST up reply actions
Would the manager have to present the umpire crew chief with a new lineup in between every at bat?
by TheBigStapler on Feb 5, 2010 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
No, lineup cards are false hustle.
"I've been trying transcendental meditation, and that helps me be passive and wait on the curve. I've got to find something else to hit the slider." - George (The Stork) Theodore
Electronic lineup by position on scoreboard
With giant strikethroughs each go-round.
Only thing is… if a guy’s batting ninth in one trip through the “lineup,” and gets on base… can his manager bat him first next trip through… WHILE he’s on base?
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Feb 5, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
I'd say no
But then say the manager was saving Pujols for an RBI spot so he was saved and saved until the 9 hole. With a man on 1st and 3rd Pujols hits a single that ties the game, BUT the manager signals wildly for Pujols to stand off the base and get tagged out and bat again in the 1 hole. The defense refuses to tag him, the play never ends, and we have ourselves a stalemate.
by Pack Bringley on Feb 6, 2010 11:52 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Well, on second thought
Not really. Nothing stops Pujols from just atandong there untagged as the defense goes about it’s business. In fact he could stand about a yard away from the next occupied base, waiting.
by Pack Bringley on Feb 6, 2010 11:55 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Or he could just walk past the next occupied base.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 6, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Or just wander out of the base path
Hands in pockets, whistling.
by Pack Bringley on Feb 6, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
I think that only works if you're avoiding a tag.
If no one’s trying to tag you out, you can run anywhere you want en route to the next base.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 6, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
I think it would be kind of cool
to eliminate that rule for like a game, and see players like juking and spinning around to avoid tags and how long it would take infielders to run them down. Like can you imagine Castillo trying to chase down and tag out Crawford?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
That would be hilarious. We at least need to let that happen in the ASG
I envision a Naked Gun-style rundown. Amazingly, there doesn’t seem to be a single clip of that scene on YouTube.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 6, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
Ha. In this scenario
You’re allowed to break to 3rd straight from 1st, but the pitcher is allowed to tackle you.
by Pack Bringley on Feb 8, 2010 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
Add an experiment for small ball
In alternating games they play normally or they have to bunt a batter over if there are less than 2 outs unless he’s on 3rd. See the teams average scores in small ball and normal games.
Also mound height experiments could be fun
The mound starts at ground level, and raises by one inch each game until it reaches 2x the height of a normal mound. Measure the effect on FIP as mound height increases, find optimal hitter and pitcher conditions.
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 4, 2010 1:08 AM EST up reply actions
I'd say we also need an amphetamines test as well.
IN honor of David Wells we need a hung-over performance test as well.
I should have added some Met specific ones
1. Force Reyes to impersonate a vegetable in alternating years.
2. David Wright hits in all high leverage situations for 3 seasons.
3. When Ollie’s wheels start to come off the Mets call time and run out a therapist and a couple chairs to the mound and take as long as much time as they wish
Not sure we will all be alive to see the end of trhe Ollie experiment
"I've been trying transcendental meditation, and that helps me be passive and wait on the curve. I've got to find something else to hit the slider." - George (The Stork) Theodore
or peeing on your hands versus staying sober and turning the bathroom light on
by Pack Bringley on Feb 4, 2010 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
why just on the hands?
this is experimental after all, so i say on the feet, on the opponent, on the umpires…
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Feb 5, 2010 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
oh, and Pelfrey wouldn't want to try this...
by Pack Bringley on Feb 4, 2010 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
That's one way to get him to stop.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 4, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Screw the experimental phase, just put #5 in place now
To enforce the rule, I vote for electroshock being applied for any batter who steps out of the box.
How about a season where Beltran only sees curveballs
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 4, 2010 11:19 AM EST reply actions
disco hayes is a real person?
you can’t be a pro jock and a VORPie:
http://discohayes.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/08/ouch_my_babip_or_living_the_si.html
This blog must be a charade devised to confuse grouchy old men.
Disco Hayes is the greatest baseball prospect since everer.
It made me sad when the Mets failed to select him in the Rule 5 Draft.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 4, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
I assume
that Socks! will be in charge of the lab.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
If anyone can find a pic
of the underwater fathering experiment at springfield’s National Fatherhood Institute, I’ll be very much obliged.
I love #11
But it needs to be renamed — the guy who pitches only to the opposing pitcher must be known as the “designated pitcher.”
It actually makes as much sense as the DH rule, the real-life mad-science experiment we’ve all been living with for decades.
For now on
I’m calling all AL pitchers, designated pitchers. That’s what they are anyway. I can’t even watch AL ball because of the DH
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
Experiment #6: DO MANAGER’S MATTER?: After some initial data collecting every team’s manager is fired mid-season and replaced with a baseball scientist and his laptop. The scientist promises not to intuit things. Half-season manager, half-season nerd, full season nerd, full season manager, half-season manager, half-season nerd.
I’m pretty sure the Red Sox do this kind of, from what I understand a computer even decides their line ups Francona(sp) just copies, he has the greatest job ever.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Can we replace Jerry with a robot?
Does anything in the baseball rules say that managers have to be human?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 4, 2010 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
Connie Mack didn't need no stinkin' uniform.
"I've been trying transcendental meditation, and that helps me be passive and wait on the curve. I've got to find something else to hit the slider." - George (The Stork) Theodore
I'd take
A robot in a three-piece suit and derby, too.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Feb 5, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
A robot in a vest. It's only fitting, of course.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 5, 2010 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
Also one expiriment I think the mets should really consider
is only having 4-5 batters. Something like Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Bay, Castillo. I really think it’d be way more productive than allowing Frenchy and Omir to bat.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
How about
a 6 on 6 league with a ridiculously shallow OF wall where a HR is an out. In other words, a groundball/line drive league with only an infield.
by Pack Bringley on Feb 5, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
is that like in gym kickball
where if you hit the ceiling you’re out?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 5, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
It's like "Six and Out" backyard cricket
If you clear the fence, you’re out. Why? Because it’s a pain in the ass to lose/retrieve whatever ball you’re using.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Feb 5, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
ah yeah, i've played that version too
the only thing I find more awkward than swinging a cricket bat is having to check swing a cricket bat every time.
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 5, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Alternatively (in baseball, not cricket)
You could play with the full 9 but no outfield wall, only an endless expanse of grass. Huh. A lot of HRs would be negated, of course, but I imagine fast guys would put HR balls into the gaps with some regularity. An when a guy like Dunn DID clear the outfielders’ heads and had to chug-chug around, it’d be the funniest thing in baseball!
by Pack Bringley on Feb 5, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
How far would Bengie have to hit the ball to get a HR then?
My guess is if he could put one on the nearest highway, it might get bounce through an open window, and he’s got a shot.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 5, 2010 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
depends who's in the outfield
if it’s GMjr, Bay and Tatis who wouldn’t even have to hit in 300 feet
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I would like the pennant run of a season
to be where only current position players can pitch. Nick Swisher would just strike out Gabe Kapler over and over. Then the Mets could resign Desi Relaford.
Travis Hafner is made of gold
The ol' Minaya switcheroo
Intend to type ‘1’, and have ‘9’ come out instead, like if you giving Alex Cora a contract.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 5, 2010 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
would this enterprise have a separate Dept of snark
or would that be located in the Murray Chass Attacks division?
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
it's really funny
when you try to get a rise out of people and fail miserably
by gogomets on Feb 5, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
at least
i’ll always have you
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
Joe Morgan's?
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
Relegation
Always wondered what it would be like if there were a Euro-football-style system of promotion and relegation between AAA and the Majors, AA and AAA, etc.
It’d require an entirely new system of ownership and contracts, of course, not to mention other practical considerations, but figuring those out is part of the fun.
phliadelphoe ite domum!

by 





























