Mets Current 2010 Projected War v1.1
by Eric Simon on Feb 4, 2010 9:11 PM EST
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PrintAfter this disaster, I took another crack at working out the Mets' projected WAR. I took a closer look at this post and adjusted the NL team replacement wins up to 45 from 30. I also nixed the averaging of CHONE and FAN projections, going with straight CHONE where available and utilizing BtB's WAR spreadsheet for pitchers.
So the team replacement adjustment brings the overall projection up, but removing the fans' unbridled optimism drags it back down a bit. A better looking number overall, but still nothing to get excited about.
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I can live with 84 wins as a prediction.
It is just incredible to me how easily this team could have been upgraded – at least one starter, 2B, RF – and it just didn’t get done. I’m still holding out hope that Felipe is signed on the cheap and wins the 2B job.
I also expect Murphy to beat that .7 WAR. I’d say over on Murph, Ollie, and Niese. Under on Escobar and Castillo.
paying 4 million dollars for a couple 0's breaks my heart
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
Wow. Ollie at perfect replacement level.
That’s optimism.
Not to nitpick
but why Fogg and Niese over Parnell? Ithink most of the bullpen contributions are pretty good (with the exception of escobar), but there will be other guys besides the opening day 12 contributing during the year.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
Oh, we can include Parnell
I’m just spitballing with the back end of the rotation. Throw in Bobby Parns for another .5 WAR if you like. Next iteration might include him.
That number
84 wins would be something I’d kind of could expect. Assuming the team lives up to that prediction, I could see it as an improvement. Of course, with a useless trade like the one for GMJ, I have a feeling it’s gonna knock it down a tad bit.
The 2010 New York Mets: Maybe it's the Phillies' turn to have 95% of its roster on the DL
The 2009 New England Patriots: At least we got our division title back
The 2009-10 New Jersey Devils: It's Kovy Time!
Yes
For batters these are the CHONE WAR projections from FanGraphs, which include fielding projections.
That's about right, right?
As currently composed, they should be above .500 but not really in the hunt for the playoffs.
The question becomes, is this enough to remove the current regime (Omar, Jerry, etc.) from power so they can start anew? In the past, IIRC, the Wilpons’ goal has been to play meaningful games in September and not necessarily make the playoffs. And with this record, they should play “important” games in September, just in early September before they fall out of the race. But, with the new ball park, did the Wilpons change their goals to playoffs or bust?
If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.
I doubt it
as long as they’re selling tickets why would the new ball park make a difference, it’s not like they paid for most of it.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I think, regardless of if we have a .500+ season, Omar is gone at the end of the year.
All of the writing is on the wall, and has been for some time now. Jerry probably stays, though.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 4, 2010 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
We can win the World Series and I'd still want Omar and Jerry gone
I wanted Willie fired throughout the 2006 season
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
The 2006 season?
You wanted Willie fired all throughout the season that he managed a team that won 97 games and ran away with the division? Wow. Tough crowd.
by MangoMetsFan on Feb 5, 2010 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
The team was great that year
but he was still a shitty manager.
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
Oh, and to further my paradoxical thought process
I also though he should have won manager of the year. Not because he was good that year, he wasn’t, but because the BBWAA normally just votes for the guy who manages the best team, and the Mets were the only team to win over 90 games that year. Girardi winning was a joke anyway.
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
I thought Willie was actually ok that year.
He didn’t really have much to do, since the line-up was healthy and solid for the most part. The bullpen was awesome, and Willie stuck to well-defined roles the whole year. That team was mostly Willie-proof, so he did nothing to really make them worse.
A manager shouldn't have so much effect on a team
Most of what they have to do is fairly obvious. We won 97 games that year and Willie insisted on giving 20 starts to Victor Zambrano, Alay Soler, Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez. We really couldn’t have given Heilman a shot in the rotation that year? Willie was a bad manager who was just lucky to have Wright, Reyes, and Beltran and some guys who had really good years.
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
I agree with most of this
But I really don’t see a situation where Omar goes and Jerry stays. I think they either both stay or both go. I mean, Jerry is Omar’s guy, right?
If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.
I liked the other numbers better
This just provides false hope and may mean the Mets stay just competitive enough to make an awful move at the trade deadline.
ugh my it's going to happen isn't it.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Thats one thing I'll give Omar.
He doesn’t tend to make stupid moves at the deadline.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 4, 2010 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
But do you think if he thinks his job is on the line
and we’re only a few games out he won’t try and make a big move?
Or worse someone will suggest an idiot move to Jeff and he’ll order Omar to get it done.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
The later
"Never throw a slider to The Glider."
- Ed Charles, No. 5
To be fair
Omar knows that his job is on the line right now, and yet he really didn’t make any stupid big moves this offseason. Some small, stupid moves, but nothing too detrimental to the organization.
Actually, now that I think about it – this offseason wasn’t that bad. Omar knows that his job is on the line, and we still kept all of our prospects…and even added some guys to AAA that will help slow down how fast some of the kids are getting pushed.
by MangoMetsFan on Feb 5, 2010 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
To be accurate
Omar had a budget of at least $32m this offseason. He overpaid significantly for Bay and Francoeur, and after them filled only some very minor holes.
It was a terrible offseason. No offense intended, but I have to consider it detrimental to the organization when it punts another year of its stellar core.
by SeanSchirmer on Feb 7, 2010 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
Bay wasn't an overpay as far as this year goes, he's only making 8.5 million.
If you’re argument is that he’ll be overpaid over the life of the contract you’re probably correct. Omar did a nice job of signing him and leaving money to fix other issues this year.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 7, 2010 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah but the problem is he didn't fix those other issues
So now we’re getting a bargain this year, the year he’s going to be worth the cost, while the rest of the team isn’t good enough, and as he becomes less and less worth his contract we’re going to have more money committed to him and less money left to fix the other holes the team will likely still have.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
84 sounds about right
with a little bit of luck this could be a playoff team, not exactly likely though.
My own projections (just going through the roster and predicting a number, nothing scientific) got me to 86 wins.
I have a gut feeling that Tatis, Perez, Niese (if he starts as #5 starter), and possibly Maine and Murphy
will out perform these WAR predictions. No real reason behind them, just gut feeling.
With a bit of attitude
im sure the mets could easily get over 84 wins and maybe hit 86-88, not that any of those totals are near playoff contention. but with all this buzz around the mets and smoltz or washburn, i’d rather even take Pedro back. i’d bet money that he would have a better season then either of them. (bolts doors shut while hiding under table with an AK)
this shouldnt be worth pointing out
but isnt it friggin nice that eric posted something with some suppositions in it, and then those suppositions were questioned in the comments, and then eric revisited the process he used to arrive at his suppositions and then altered them, without causing a fuss, and then reposted with new suppositions that took into account the questions that were brought up in the previous posts’ comments?
maybe if some BBWAA HOF voters would take the same attitude after publishing something that was totally stupid and then not spaz out when someone called them out on how stupid their original published piece was, people on the interwebs wouldn’t think BBWAA voters with HOF votes weren’t undeserving of the privilege afforded to them.
i guess what im REALLY getting at are jon heyman and his ilk are d bags of the highest magnitude and eric simon roxzors the soxzorz.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
by kendynamo on Feb 5, 2010 12:18 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
"maybe if some BBWAA HOF voters would take the same attitude after publishing something that was totally stupid"
and THEN, if the Mets FO would take the same attitude after an offseason that was totally stupid…
That's actual Hegelian dialectic
which is about as far from science as you can get.
But, I agree with the Spirit. <— note Hegel joke, nyuk, nyuk.
rec'd
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
Seems to high on Castillo.
Everything he does with the bat is undone with interest by his D and that Pelfrey 2.4 is too high because of Castillo.
I also think Murphy will be worth more. He is going to be working with Mex in ST so his D is going to be better and his bat will improve slightly.
the rest seems spot on…sadly.
"Wait till Biggus Dickus hears about this!"
by scott from peekskill on Feb 5, 2010 12:28 AM EST reply actions
I agree on Murphy.
I just think he can’t really be worse than last year and maybe with a clear position/role he can get comfortable right away and produce a little. Hopefully Keith can teach him how to take a walk while he’s at it.
--He is going to be working with Mex in ST--
Whoa. I’d love to see this.
This is much better
I’d use 47 for NL replacement level, which brings it to 86 wins. But then you could probably lose a couple wins elsewhere. Escobar probably needs to work as a SP to get to 1.5 WAR. I’d guess he’s more like 0.5. And Beltran is still questionable for me as far as his health. I’d bet he misses a fair amount of time and ends up with more like 3.5. But conversely, a healthy Beltran all year could maybe be enough to make this team a contender. In 2006 he was worth 7 WAR, and in 2008, 6.7 WAR.
As for who could outperform, I kind of like Nieve. It was a small sample last year, but the Mets seemed to makes some major changes in his approach, he really made progress on the changeup, and he always had a good slider. I think he has the full repertoire to succeed as a SP right now.
Also, some of the kids, like Fernando, Thole, Davis, and Tejada could maybe step up and put up better numbers off that bench than Mattews, Santos, Tatis, and Cora. And Chris Carter actually has a 1.3 WAR CHONE projection as well, if you can fit him on the bench somewhere.
I'd be more excited....
If 84 wins included the -5.0 for have Jerry as manager. Wonder how well Bay bunts?
Yeah I think the problem is
we don’t really have anyone who could be expected to break out, usually those are guys who are prospects who’ve struggled at the next level but have displayed they have the tools or guys who haven’t really gotten a chance elsewhere. I mean it’s possible if Maine stays healthy he could have a break out year, but outside of him there aren’t really many true “break out candidates”.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Murphy could certainly be considered a breakout candidate, and Pagan really could too with regular playing time.
Perez and Francoeur have such low expectations that they could easily perform well above those expectations. Pelfrey and Niese could esily fall into the breakout category as well.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 5, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure that really constitutes a break out candidate
but I did forget about Pagan he, and possibly Chris Carter if he gets any playing time, could be possible break out candidates. But I don’t really think low expectations for a player makes them a break out candidate, I think it’s usually someone who’s shown talent in limited roles but never really been given a fair shake, Perez has shown talent but he’s also shown a lot of suck and been given a lot of time to figure out how to not suck. Similarly with Frenchy though he’s young enough that it’s still possible something could magically click with him. And I’m not really sure Pelfrey/Murphy haven’t played to about what they would be expected too in the chances they’ve been given. I mean to me if you lump them in then for similar reasons you could lump Omir in, they obviously suck decidedly less than Omir but they’ve also met their reasonable expectations based on past history. Where as a guy like Pagan really doesn’t; have much history to go on and Carter had a few big years in the minors but never got a chance with the major league club even after those huge years.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I has lobby Chris Carter for a while.
Funny how CHONE projects Murphy to be 0.7 WAR and Carter 1.3 WAR. Even if you adjust the positional value, Carter WAR is a bit higher.
Perez and Francoeur aren't breakout guys so much, but they are the type that could perform well above their projections.
As far as predicting where we could see improvement over the projections, I think that would almost qualify as the same thing.
"We're just as bad as the old Mets, but this time nobody's laughing"
-Dallas Green
by Stephen Schmidt on Feb 5, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
I think there's a difference in the liklihood
for me with break out candidates there’s a reasonable expectation that they can outperform their projections for some reason, with Perez it seems more like pure hope, because while it’s possible everything in their numbers says it’s unlikely. It’s possible Frenchy will magically learn to control the strike zone and/or regain his former defensive prowess but there’s no real reason to think it will happen, and it’s possible Perez will learn to throw strikes, regain some velocity and throw more than 2 pitches, but the way his stats are trending say it’s not neccessarily likely, kind of the same thing with Pelfrey, he might learn a serviceable off-speed pitch but at this point there’s no real evidence to support it. Where as with Pagan/Carter there’s not really as much evidence against them, and, this could just be blind faith, with Carter it’s possible the dip in his production the last 2 years have more to do with frustration at performing great 2 years and still never being given a chance than with an actual decrease in talent level.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
What dip in Carter's production in the last 2 years? He had 26 PA in those 2 years at major league level. Not like anyone gave him playing time.
In AAA, he had .376 and .360 wOBA in 2008/2009. Even though people claim he has a platoon split, from his minor league numbers, he has a similar OBP against righties and lefties (something around .350).
And damn you Patrick Flood, who already sponsors Carter’s page at BR.
I meant in AAA
But I meant more the fall from the .390 wOBA’s in 06/07 to .360’s in 08/09. That’s a pretty big difference when you’re talking about a player who apparently projects to have defensive short comings even on the far left side of the defensive spectrum, according to minorleaguesplits his 08/09 numbers translate to a sub .700 OPS at the major league levels, where as his 08 numbers in arizona translated to like .800+.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
His MLE OPS from 06-09 is 0.694/0.625/0.709/0.679
I checked at career stats>MLE. It automatically neutralizes park and luck. So, his difference in production wouldn’t really be because he got worse.
It sort of kills the hope he can be that .390 wOBA player.
Anyways, I want to see what he can do if he is given more playing time.
Also figgy is another possible break out candidate
If I had more faith in the front office I’d say the reason they didn’t go harder after another pitcher is because they had identified something in Figgy that makes it seem very likely that he’ll break out this year.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Can a 35 year old really have a breakout year?
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
Lol yeah that's a good question
but Sam mentioned in another thread that sometimes, albiet rarely, players true talent levels change as they age. Didn’t the Braves have some guy named Campillo, or something seriously, who out of no where had an awesome year starting like in 07 who was in his early 30s?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
It was 2008 and he was 29 until August
He had a solid year, 3.91 ERA, 4.00 FIP and 4.17 xFIP. He didn’t k too many people, 107 in 158 innings.
And yes I had to look him up, cause I had no idea what you were talking about.
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
Maybe he was 29 in El Duque years
And he didn’t K many people but I think 4.17 xFIP is still decidedly above average, if only because average is so medicore, according to statcorner he was worth 2.3 WAR which is pretty good for only 153 innings.
I’m just saying there’s still some hope to cling too.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Did you know that Figueroa is older than Livan?
Not that he actually is, because I’m sure Livan is at least 40 by now, but Livan is recognized as being 34, (35 in two weeks) and Figgy as 35 right now.
"Three home teams advance, and the fuckin' Jets" - Rex Ryan
I always forget Livan actually exists as a seperate entity from El Duque
I kind of just lump them together in my head, so when you said Figgy is older than Livan I was like wtf what kind of math are you using.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Does this 84 win prediction account for things like
. Missing bases
. Forgetting to run out a popup
. Falling down dugout steps.
. Dropping a popup to end a game
. Bizarre press conferences
. Using pinch hitters that are warming up pitchers in the bullpen
Just curious
you know what I'm sayin' ?
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