I Believe in Comebacks... and Chan Ho Park?

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 9, 2010 11:42 PM EST

Yes I do. Even I'm surprised I'm saying it.

You may remember the last time Chan Ho Park wore a Mets uniform and promptly pitched himself out of MLB after one start in 2007.

Or perhaps you remember the last time he started in the majors, on May 6th against the Mets in Citifield and shutout the Mets with a one-hitter over 6 innings (2 BB, 5K). Course, thats when the Mets had Delgado, Reyes and Beltran healthy and Murphy was still starting in LF.

At any rate, Chan Ho has earned a reputation as a solid RP over the last two years and it's relatively well deserved. His 2.68 ERA as a RP last year and 4.0 xFIP says he's above average. But he wants to start and that's probably the main reason why he remains unsigned.

So why am I advocating the Mets taking the plunge and accommodating him? As everyone knows, the Mets have a very unsettled rotation at the moment and a bullpen with some RHP question marks (Igr and Esco). The Mets can offer Chan Ho a very similar deal to what the Phillies offered him last year... low guarantee with incentives and the opportunity for him to earn a starting spot out of ST. At this point, the Mets might offer the best opportunity for him to earn a starting spot.

I can hear it already though... "Why offer him the opportunity to start? Why take away innings from Neise? Replacement level, etc. etc. He's terrible as a starter, he couldn't stick as a starter with the Phillies and Dodgers the last two years." That's a half truth. Looking just at last year, Chan Ho was given 6 starts. In 3 of them, he was subpar. In the other 3, he was above average, going 7, 6, 6 IP with 6 ER total between the 3 games. Before being demoted to the pen, he posted two of those above average starts against the Dodgers (Mannyless) and Mets (full-strength) lineups. Anyways, he wasn't given much of a chance as a starter, but showed enough for me to believe. Especially since most of his poor starts came in CBP and on the road in colorado, which is notoriously difficult for road pitchers, especially ones who rely on the touch of their secondary pitches.

But my overall belief in Chan Ho really boils down to one thing... his GB/FB ratio. His career GB/FB is 1.29, though in the last two years its been slightly higher. Chan Ho is a flyball pitcher. Not quite an extreme one, but he's the type of pitcher that benefits from deep fences. The Mets just so happen to have a stadium that's accommodating to these types. If they can try to work most of starts to Citifield, Florida and the caverns of the West, they could have a very decent 5th starter or at the very least a strong middle RP.

I'm looking forward to the responses, but I do believe Chan Ho is worth a $2 million guarantee with incentives for either starting or relief innings.

Update:

So after reading the comments, I get the feeling people are missing just how good of a RP Chan Ho has been these last two years.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/breaking-news-chan-ho-park-is-good/

To put Chan Ho's worth in perspective, he had a 1.5 WAR as a starter and RP last year. By comparison, Brandon Lyon posted a 1.5 WAR season as a RP in 2007. The last two years, his WAR was .7 and he received a 3 year, $5 mill per year contract from the Astros. That is the worst contract for a RP this offseason, but it gives a slight idea of where Chan Ho's value really is. He's worth at least the $2.5 million he got from the Phillies last year, but he might take a slight discount if it comes with a real shot to be a starter, something the Mets can reasonably offer.

Poll

Should the Mets tender Chan Ho Park a contract, assuming it's around $2-3 million with incentives?

Yes

20 votes

No

31 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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Comments

A little off topic

but me and my dad randomly started playing this game a couple years ago that when we watch Mets games, and we see like random words or players names on the screen, we say them backwards and the other person has to figure out what they’re saying (don’t ask me how it started, I don’t know). I remember Chan Ho’s name being the funniest :) That and Pelfrey. Yerflep is fun to say.

by wrightttxgirlllx3 on Feb 10, 2010 12:44 AM EST reply actions

I'd say yes

but not for $2-3 million
more like $500K plus incentives

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Feb 10, 2010 6:28 AM EST reply actions

+1

agreed about contract.

and i’ve been saying this here for what feels like years now, chan ho park out of the pen is not a bad thing.

by Rob Castellano on Feb 10, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

I hate Chan Ho Park

I got good, thirdbase line tickets in the second row for my sister for her birthday, and it was the first time either one of us sat so close to the field. El Duque was supposed to pitch that night. But, he didn’t. Instead, Chan Ho Park did. And, you know what? He ruined our experience by stinking so much, we smelled it in the stands.

In all seriousness, though, if he was given a Minor League contract for <$1 million dollars, I wouldn’t mind. He could theoretically contribute somehow in a meaningful way. Anything more, though, like $2 million guaranteed dollars, with incentives, no thank you. There is nothing Park can do that I don’t think Escobar can reasonably do, given some faith in him.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 10, 2010 9:24 AM EST reply actions

Escobar

can’t start. He doesn’t want to and it’s very unlikely his shoulder could handle the load. Escobar is very similar to Smoltz right now when he converted to a closer. I suspect he may start again someday, but it won’t be this year.

Given that Ollie and Maine are expected to be the 3rd and 4th starters, the Mets are likely to need not just a 5th starter, but a 6th starter to invariably fill in when Ollie or Maine gets hurt.

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 10, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions

Projections

James, CHONE, and Marcel are projecting Park, between the three of them, to throw anywhere between 58 and 81 innings (with 3 starts, by James’ thinking), with an ineffective 4.33 to 5.32 ERA, and a FIP that ranges from a passable 4.19 to a not very good 4.93. Escobar, according to James and Marcel, believe he’s going to throw anywhere between 36 and 63 innings (no starts), with a 3.00 to 4.14 ERA, and a FIP that ranges from 3.15 to 4.09. The “fans” are saying that Escobar is going to start 19 games, which is pretty retarded. If we needed an emergency spot starter, which is what Park would be at this point in his career, and the multitude of possible spot starters that we already have- Figueroa, Nieve, Dickey, Parnell*, Niese, Fogg, and anyone else I’m missing- were not available, could Escobar start and last four, maybe five innings? I think so.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 10, 2010 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

Hmmm

What were these projections saying Chan Ho Park and Escobar were going to do last year?

I’ll tell you that neither of them came close to projecting the real deal. Obviously Esco couldn’t say healthy but Chan Ho beat all expectations.

Fans does have Esco down for 19 starts, but only 83 innings, so something isn’t adding up. Someone probably slide the HLD category over accidentally when coping the spreadsheet.

Plus, Escobar is still a massive injury risk.

As for the multitude of spot starters, only Figgy, Neive and Neise should be given shots and really, Neise is the only one who really has any chance of sticking in the rotation full time. So he could snag the 5th spot, but that still leaves around 16 starts mopping up for Maine, Ollie’s and even Johan’s time missed due to injuries. Chan Ho Park has better peripherals than Figgy, Neive, DIckey and Fogg and certainly would be a better RP than each of them.

Parnell could start, but he needs much better secondary pitches to last and be effective. I don’t trust Warthen to get the job done there.

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 10, 2010 9:04 PM EST up reply actions

The end result still

is that there is nothing, realistically, that Park can do that Escobar- and, he’s just a random starter-turned-reliever that I pulled “from the hat”; there’s nothing inherently special about him, though if he can regain his starting form (unlikely), that’d be awesome- probably can’t do about as good (pitch innings in relief; possibly start if necessary, for whatever reason) or better (ERA, total WAR). There’s no reason to pile on dollars- especially at the rate you suggested ($2-$3 million, with incentives)- when there’s no particular market for him, or particular need for him, especially when he’s being projected to be so bad. Realistically, yes, Park could have a better season than what the projections are, but so, too, could Escobar, Pernell, Figueroa, Nieve, Fogg, Dickey, and whoever else we have on the 40-man roster that is tentativley penciled into that long reliever/spot starter/innings eater role right now.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 10, 2010 10:38 PM EST up reply actions

No, the end result is Escobar can't start

In fact, Escobar is likely to be limited to 1 inning or less situations, whereas Chan Ho can easily be a 2-3 innings RP and provide decent innings as an SP. I’d rather place a slightly larger bet on Chan Ho (almost 200 IP in the last 2 years) than Escobar, who has 6 IP in the last 2 years.

Park is more likely to have better seasons than Fig, Nieve, Fogg, Dickey and Dessens, regardless of whether its as a starter or a relief pitcher.

O and there is a market for Chan Ho. He could come less than what I’m guessing, but considering he got $2.5 mill for a $7 mill season last year, $2-3 this year isn’t exactly an unfair number.

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 11, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

Cubs, Rays, Giants

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/cubs-rays-after-park.html

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 11, 2010 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

and really

my whole point is that he would serve as insurance behind escobar, irg, and the end of the starting rotation, all of which have major question marks coming into this season.

by Olde Isle Mets Fan on Feb 11, 2010 3:14 PM EST up reply actions