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Make-The-Mets-O-Meter: Pitchers, Vol. 3

We've lost a number of close friends since last week. Jay Marshall's waiver claim was voided. Carlos Muniz was sent to minor league camp last week, and yesterday all of these guys were cut from big league camp:

* Travis Blackley
* R.A. Dickey
* Jack Egbert
* Clint Everts
* Josh Fogg
* Eddie Kunz
* Bobby Livingston
* Arturo Lopez
* Eric Niesen

But we have added Kiko Calero to the ledger, which leaves us with a cast of ten pitchers competing for one rotation spot and maybe three bullpen spots, or just two bullpen spots if we assume Bobby Parnell is a lock.

I'm also assuming Kelvim Escobar won't be ready for Opening Day.

Star-divide

Player Comment
Kiko Calero, RHP A hit, a walk, a strikeout, a hit-by-pitch in his first inning of work. He's probably even money to make the team, but his late start might push him back a little bit.
Elmer Dessens, RHP Hasn't been terrible in camp, but isn't getting much playing time, either. Should be among the next round of cuts.
Nelson Figueroa, RHP* No runs allowed and nine kays in eight innings. Seems to be a bit frustrated with being dicked around all the time. Niese's struggles this spring could open the door for Figueroa to make the April roster.
Jenrry Mejia, RHP Eight strikeouts, no walks, and just one run allowed in 7.1 innings—no wonder Jerry Manuel wants to save his job put Mejia in the Met bullpen.
Pat Misch, LHP* Seven baserunners in seven innings, but no runs allowed and 13 ground outs to just three fly outs.
Jon Niese, LHP* It shouldn't matter, but Niese's 7.04 spring ERA will be a sign to some dunce that the lefty isn't ready to face big league hitters. It's rubbish. He also has seven strikeouts in 7.2 innings, ~.360 BABIP, and a 2.20 groundball-to-flyball ratio.
Fernando Nieve, RHP* Five walks and just two strikeouts, plus 12 hits and six runs in nine innings all add up to an OPS against over .830 and a vanishingly small chance to make the Mets out of spring training.
Bobby Parnell, RHP* Parnell wasn't such a good reliever last year—43 strikeouts and 25 walks in 52 innings—that he should be guaranteed a bullpen spot this year. Not that it's representative of anything, but he's been just so-so this spring.
Tobi Stoner, RHP* Seven groundouts and three strikeouts, plus no walks, in 3.1 innings. Only a solo homerun mars his admittedly limited March performance.
Hisanori Takahashi, LHP Nine strikeouts, no walks, two hits in six innings spanning two appearances. Probably has the inside track for a bullpen spot with his flexibility to be used as a swingman.

Key:
= Chance of making the Mets is unchanged.
= Chance of making the Mets is going down.
= Chance of making the Mets is going up.
* = player on 40-man roster

0 recs  |  Comment 43 comments |

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I'd prefer to see Parnell at AAA

so he can refine his off-speed stuff. 98 is nice, but it’s clothesline straight, and without consistent breaking stuff guys can eventually catch up. Also re: fortuna and virtu—Machiavelli references in regards to the Mets have to start and end with Jerry Manuel. He is so Lorenzo the Magnificent, he only needs the flowing robes and portrait hanging in the Robinson Rotunda with an apple and scepter to pull it off.

by ProustianDisplay on Mar 16, 2010 6:30 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Agreed

I don’t think Parnell did anything last year (or ever, really) to warrant being a lock for this roster. His hot start was aided by a huge amount of luck, and when the tables turned, so did the numbers. I’d definitely prefer to see him hone his craft at AAA – with that kind of heat, he should be able to turn into at least a serviceable reliever, but he’s not there yet and we’ve got guys who are better.

by dontstopbelieving on Mar 16, 2010 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

If you subtract Parnell's innings as a starter

… which were quite pathetic, I believe that you will find that he stats as purely a reliever were pretty good for his first year in the bigs.

"Never throw a slider to The Glider."

- Ed Charles, No. 5

by The Glider on Mar 16, 2010 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Nieve will be on the team

because they won’t want him to go through waivers.

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Mar 16, 2010 6:42 AM EDT reply actions  

When the Mets do the ultimate stupid

and keep up Mejia to pitch out of the ‘pen: will you guys be rooting for him to get rocked so he gets sent back down, or for him to do well? I’m torn. On the one hand, I want him to be in the minors, starting. On the other hand, I want him to keep pitching awesome like he has been, and I do want the major league team to do well this year.

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Mar 16, 2010 8:23 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm not really torn on this.

I’ll root for him to do well if he makes the club, even if I think it is a terrible idea to make roster decisions based on the desperation of a terrible manager who must know that he’ll be canned by May if the team gets off to a bad start. Thus, I’ll root for Omar and Jerry to get canned.

"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez

by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Mar 16, 2010 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'll root for him to succeed

I think he should stay in the minors and be developed as a starter, but I think the concern about the transition from the reliever to starter is overblown. How long did it take the Yankees to stretch out Joba in 08? Maybe six weeks. Casting Mejia to the bullpen is not an irreversible action.

However, considering Mejia’s lack of experience at the pro level and his high ceiling, he really should be given every opportunity to develop his secondary pitches and become a top-line starter.

by englishgrey on Mar 16, 2010 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

The difference with Meija and Joba

is when Joba was drafted he already had 2 plus pitches and a 3rd pitch well on his way. Meija right now has one plus pitch and two pitches with high potential that he struggles to command.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Mar 16, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is hard but,

I’m gonna root for him to strike out a lot of people, not give up any home runs, get a ton of ground balls (that get through Castillo and Cora) and have a really, absurdly high BABIP. So in reality he’ll have pitched well but his ERA will be pretty high and by May he’ll be back in the minors

by Evan_S on Mar 16, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

And hopefully Brian Bannister will give him a call

and tell him not to worry his FIP was fine. But really in this ballpark with our current defensive alignment that’s incredibly possible.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Mar 16, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

In this scenario I have in my head

Mejia is striking out a batter an inning and is only getting a bunch of grounders to places where Cora and Castillo can’t get to and maybe a fly or two that falls in between Bay and Cora. I’m thinking like ~20 innings, 25 ks, 2 bbs, 0 hr, 6.00 ERA, .500 BABIP, 2.00 FIP. Not sure if that line is even possible, but that would be ideal.

by Evan_S on Mar 16, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

still questions

whatever happened to fogg? I guess misch is a lock for the pen. Nieve in the pen because he won’t pass waivers? 5th starter niese or figgy? With a couple of weeks before opening day maine and pelf still look horrible and ollie will be good ollie one start and bad ollie the next.
whose going to be our set up man(i think he will need an interpreter) and still the only pitcher i have any confidence in is santana.

by bob c on Mar 16, 2010 9:04 AM EDT reply actions  

Fogg was sent down

…should be on the list of cuts. Might refuse to report to the Minors.

by erich10031 on Mar 16, 2010 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fogg went to MiL camp the other day.

Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?

by CharlieH on Mar 16, 2010 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

misch

is certainly not a lock for the pen.

by njk237 on Mar 16, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

OK, let's play

Here’s my preferred staff. Hopefully I haven’t forgotten anyone.

Starters: Johan, Pelfrey, Ollie, Figgy, Takahashi

Pen: K-Rod, Igarashi, Feliciano, Calero, Green, Misch, Nieve (if we carry 7 RPs)

Minors: Niese, Parnell, Maine (if possible for extended ST/rehab)

DFA: Nieve if we carry only 6 RPs.

DL/Del Boca Vista: Escobar

My thinking is: Figgy has more than earned a spot, and Takahashi has looked good enough to get a shot, plus he’s never really relieved before. Maine simply isn’t ready yet – it’s probably a pipe dream to have him start in the minors or extended ST, and I don’t know if it would fly with the union or the league, but I think it’s worth a shot. Niese has options, and I don’t see him, right now, as a major upgrade over anyone else whom we’d put in the rotation except Perez, who’s clearly going to get a spot.

I’m agnostic on Nieve or Misch for the long-man spot; I can’t remember whether or not Misch has options so if he does, I’d be fine with keeping Nieve up so he doesn’t have to pass through waivers. In any case, I’m guessing Nieve would pass, through, but maybe I’m wrong.

Thoughts?

by dontstopbelieving on Mar 16, 2010 10:10 AM EDT reply actions  

I can't see Maine in the minors, but other than that I like your thinking.

I’d just swap Maine for Tak2 in the rotation and slide Takahashi to the pen.

Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?

by Schmidtxc on Mar 16, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh...and send Green to Buffalo

Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?

by Schmidtxc on Mar 16, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

My preferences

Staff: Johan, Pelfrey, Ollie, Maine, Niese
Pen: K-Rod, Igarashi, Takahashi, Calero, Figueroa, Green, Misch
Minors: Parnell
DFA: Nieve

-It’s premature to say Maine isn’t ready yet. He’s had one good appearance (4 K/1BB in 1.2 innings) and one bad one. Of all the Mets starters, I think he has best chance to develop into a #2 starter behind Johan.
-I’d go with Niese over Figueroa & Takahashi for the #5 spot. All 3 of them have earned a chance to start, but Figgy & Taka are a better fit for the bullpen than Niese is. Figgy has a legitimate chance to become the setup man the Mets are looking for.
-Agree Parnell needs time in the minors

by PeterFH on Mar 16, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

How long is Green going to keep a better pitcher off the roster?

    I don’t see where he’s ever been successful in the majors, his control is awful, his constant experiments have not lead to consistancy or improvement. Parnell needs work also. He has an upside, but he’s nothing special at the moment and getting beaten up in the bigs isn’t going to help his confidence. He needs to develop alternatives to his fastball. Maine, it’s too early to write off, but I don’t see setting him in cement in the rotation either. Ollie is Ollie, which means he’s not a dependable starter, and neither is Pelf. Nieve was lights out for a couple of starts and human thereafter last week, and not so good thus far, and Niese may or may not be ready (so far I’m not convinced, though I’d like to be). Meanwhile Calero is a question mark, Dessens is old, but probably as effective overall as Green or moreso, Takahashi looks good and should be on the roster – same with Figgy, and Misch doesn’t wow anyone, but his results aren’t any worse than Maine, Neive, Pelf, Ollie, Green or Parnell and he’s making peanuts. I’d prefer to see Mejia working regularly in Triple A to see what we have and to continue his development and Stoner could use some more chances to see what he can do. In sum, beyond Santana and Feliciano, there aren’t any proven, dependable major league pitchers on the staff (including Igarashi who hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors yet), and there isn’t a whole lot of difference between those who’ll be retained on the roster and those who’ll be sent to the minors or released. And I don’t trust Jerry and Omar to pick the most promising from among the usual suspects and possible prospects.

by Cranky50 on Mar 16, 2010 11:29 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't get the Sean Green hate

I mean, he’s nothing special, and I wouldn’t want him to give him a major role in the bullpen, but he’s fine as a ROOGY. I actually think that with Calero, Igarashi, Figueroa, & Takahashi, the Mets have a good chance to develop a solid bullpen. Of course, it’s the rotation that has a whole lot of question marks.

by PeterFH on Mar 16, 2010 11:52 AM EDT reply actions  

I guess the problem is

there’s not much of a place for roogys. righties usually don’t have the same extreme platoon splits as lefty vs lefty does. And it seems like it wouldn’t be that hard to find a righty with similar success against righties who isn’t as bad overall or against lefties.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Mar 16, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

OK, fair enough

But I still think that Green is a better pitcher at this point than the alternatives (Nieve, Parnell, Stoner, Dessens). I guess you could make a case for going with Nieve over Green, since it would give Green more time to work on his new delivery, plus it would mean we wouldn’t have to DFA Nieve.

by PeterFH on Mar 16, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

You like Green far better than I do...

     He ISN’T anything special, but his wild pitches and hit batsmen added to his walks and “nothing specialness” make him a thusfar “never was” and he’s holding a roster spot that could be filled by someone who might have an upside. I assume (always dangerous to do), that management is determined to “MAKE” him into something to justify the Seattle trade, of which he’s the only thing the Mets have to show, but thusfar, as a reliever, he’s more adept at pouring gasoline on fires, than putting them out.

by Cranky50 on Mar 16, 2010 12:01 PM EDT reply actions  

You don't need to be special to earn a spot in the bullpen

You just need to fill a role reasonably well. Green’s role primary is (or should be) to get right-handed batters out. He has a career ERA of 4.38 and career FIP of 3.98, which is fine for a back-end-of the bullpen guy/situational reliever.

The problem last year was that once Putz went on the DL and Parnell panned out, the Mets had to use Green as their primary setup guy, which meant had to face too many lefties . This year, with Calero, Igarashi, Figueroa and/or Takahashi, the Mets will hopefully have enough setup guys that Green can go back to being a situational reliever.

The only reason I might send Green to the minors (I believe he has options) is too give him time to develop his new delivery.

by PeterFH on Mar 16, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

You mean like...

;-)

Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?

by CharlieH on Mar 16, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Parnell should absolutely not be guaranteed a job

What has he done? He didn’t just suck as a starter last year, he went a full month or two in the pen where he couldn’t get anyone out. Since he has options, it would be wise to move him down to start the year. Make him the Buffalo closer. Calero makes him more expendable. Calero needs to be on this opening day roster. Who do you have more faith in for the 8th inning – an untested Igorashi or Calero?

Green’s wildness does make him a liability. IF the mets are truly dedicated to having their relievers throw strikes this year, then Green could be sent packing. Righty only guys are pretty worthless in this league. A righty only reliever is a waste of a roster spot. A righty releiver has to at least be passable agains lefties. But, Green sadly makes a decent amount of money, so it’s highly unlikely they dump him. He’s here to stay, like it or not.

by Mackey Sasser on Mar 16, 2010 12:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Still torn on who deserves the 5th spot more: Figueroa or Tak2

Doesn’t want to decide…

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 16, 2010 1:23 PM EDT reply actions  

After listening to that interview, I lobby Figgy.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 16, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd go with Figgy

only because I feel it will take longer for the league to adjust to Tak2 out of the pen.

Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?

by Schmidtxc on Mar 16, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

That's a good point.

When they see him more sparingly, it’ll take longer to get used to him. A very good point.

I’ve liked Tak2 a lot, because, asides for his pitch selection and general prowess using it, he’s new to the league (and country), so he’d have that little extra surprise, and figured that’d help him as a starter. But, as a reliver, it still applies, and actually gets prolonged, yeah.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 16, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I want to go with Figgy

just because I feel like he deserves the opportunity. He can always switch places with Tak2 in the pen should he struggle out of the gate, but if he pitches well, let the guy have his chance.

by KeithsMoustache on Mar 16, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd go with Niese

The reason being you can put Figgy & Taka2 in the pen if Neise gets the 5th spot, whereas you Niese isn’t a good fit in the pen if Figgy or Taka2 get it.

by PeterFH on Mar 16, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

From Brian Costa's chat today

Depressing stuff:

Said the fifth starter is between Niese, Nieve and Tak2. Said Figueroa is not in consideration as a starter.

His Opening Day bullpen wouldn’t have Calero in it.

Has Jacobs as clear front-runner for final bench spot.

I guess we can hope he’s just wrong, but I’m afraid not.

by Bieser's Balk on Mar 16, 2010 2:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Silver linings

Obviously disappointing regarding Figueroa.

Re Calero, given that he’s on a minor league contract, working his way back from injury, and got off to a late start, it’s not the worst thing to start him off at AAA to ensure that he can be a regular contributor; you don’t want a guy in the pen who will be limited and can’t go back-to-back, as this will have a ripple effect on the rest of the pen. The upside is that for the time being, he doesn’t take up a spot on the 40. Obviously they didn’t sign him to keep him at AAA long-term so most likley this is only disappointing in terms of his readiness for regular MLB action and not in terms of the Mets’ decisionmaking. Also, the open spot in the pen will hopefully go to Figgy, so all isn’t lost.

Re Jacobs, I’d obviously rather have Carter, both for his hitting and his versatility. Hopefully he takes the regular ABs at AAA and mashes and is considered to replace Francoeur/Murphy if the time comes.

by dontstopbelieving on Mar 16, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Costa also doesn't have Figueroa making the opening day bullpen either

…which is absolutely ridiculous. What does Figgy have to do to get a spot?

by PeterFH on Mar 16, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

How about signing a guy

like Scott Eyre.. He was a useful piece of the Phillies bullpen last year. I know he’s reallly old, but he probably still has something left and a lefty reliever is something The Mets have a need for.

President of the Ramses Barden Fan Club

Fact on Villanova Sports

by Hoyadestroya85 on Mar 16, 2010 3:32 PM EDT reply actions  

He retired.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 16, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll have officially given up hope

of their being any sanity or logic going on in the mets front office. I don’t understand how you can trade for Carter, and then not even give him an even chance at making the roster over a guy who’s proven he isn’t a major leaguer.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Mar 16, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

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