Compromising with Jerry Instead of Compromising Jenrry
I could very easily write a few thousand words on how foolish I think it is for the Mets to carry Jenrry Mejia as a reliever this year. Many others have already done so. You can read about it here, here, here, here, here, and here, and I'm sure in many other places as well. Instead of rehashing many of those ideas, I'd like to work under the assumption that Jenrry will break camp in the majors (though that's hardly written on high) and discuss a way this might actually work .
Disclaimer: I cannot emphasize enough how strongly I oppose putting Mejia in the major league bullpen, this is simply a hypothetical designed to explore how this situation might play out in the interest of all parties involved.
First things first, lets establish the objections and problems that would need solving in throwing Mejia into the Major League fire:
- The long term goal with an arm like Mejia should still be starting pitcher. It would be wasteful to relegate an arm like his to relief at such a young age.
- If he spends a full year in the major league bullpen, his innings total would likely be reduced from last year's, despite the fact that he was a starter and is yet to throw 100 innings in a season. If the long term development goal is still starting pitcher, his innings total should be increasing in a controlled manner, not decreasing in an erratic manner, as it would if he was held to the standard of typical Major League reliever.
- He needs to work on his secondary pitches. His fastball is Major League ready, but his curveball and changeup are not. The best way to get them there is to put him in a starter's role where he's forced to sequence his pitches against the same hitters multiple times per game instead of just using his fastball to blow through three outs at a time.
- His command was a serious issue in Double-A and to expect an immediate improvement against Major League batters is wishcasting at best. His performance this spring--specifically the fact that he's yet to walk a batter--is encouraging, but realistically does no more than offset his poor performance in the Arizona Fall League.
Of course, the oft cited advantage of putting Mejia on the roster is that he may legitimately be the best option, at least talent-wise. Command aside, his "stuff" has certainly been as impressive as anyone to come through Mets camp in recent memory. There's certainly no one competing for a relief role who has Mejia's upside, and no pitcher in camp period this side of Johan Santana.
So now the question is whether there's a way to both solve these issues and let Mejia start the year in the major league bullpen. The near universal answer (Kevin Kernan aside) amongst writers, pundits, bloggers, and people generally more knowledgeable than I is a simple no--there is no way to resolve these problems with Jerry Manuel's desire to have Mejia in Flushing. Being the contrarian that I am, I'm going to do my very best here to disagree and suggest a plan that might be too crazy not to work. Here it is:
Jerry Manuel should be told he has no more than 20-25 innings and until June 15th to use Mejia as a reliever, at which point he will be sent back to the minors and very cautiously stretched back out into a starting role. Through June 15th, the onus will be on Jerry to both carefully use Mejia as an ace-in-the-hole reliever and figure out exactly who else he can rely on in high leverage, non-closer situations. After June 15th passes, Mejia will be given five minor league appearances and 20 innings before the All-Star break. He could make one appearance of two innings, one of three, one of four, and two of five, which would total 19. Then we hit the All-Star break and its decision time. If Mejia was effective in his limited Major League role and the big club is need of a starting pitcher, they can seriously consider re-promoting him and putting him in the rotation. If the starting five are healthy and pitching well or Mejia was ineffective as a reliever, he should be left in Buffalo for the rest of the regular season to make regular starts. In either case, he will have a total of roughly 40-45 IP through the break, which is a bit more than halfway through the schedule. He threw 94.2 innings in 2010, not counting the AFL. That means his 2010 innings total should not under any circumstances significantly exceed 130, and that might even be pushing it. This leaves the organization about 90 more innings to play with. In 15 starts, that would equate to six innings per start, a mark Mejia is unlikely to average as a major league starter this year anyway, and a number which is much more easily controlled if he's in the minors. So 15 starts it is. If the team happens to make the playoffs, he could be re-inserted into the bullpen--especially if he's still well under the 130 total innings mark for the year--and used sparingly.
This plan actually has a number of advantages, and at the very least addresses three of the four concerns listed above in some fashion (#4, command, isn't something that can necessarily be addressed by anyone other than Mejia anyway). It would give Jerry an early season cushion to determine how he's going to use some of the unknown quantities in his bullpen--such as Ryoto Igarashi, Bobby Parnell, and Kiko Calero. It's also a means to limit Mejia's innings total for the year without either shutting him down after 20-25 starts (also preventing a September callup) or limiting the number of innings he could throw per start. It could even buy some time for a wild card like Kelvim Escobar to get healthy. It could also give the Mets a few weeks before the trade deadline to evaluate whether they need to make a trade for an arm or consider riding it out with Mejia. And it could set a precedent for next year. If a plan like this were to work, a similar approach could be taken in 2011, except with Mejia getting sent down and stretched out even earlier, allowing him to come back and make, say, 20 starts instead of 15. Then he could become a full time member of the rotation in 2012, by which time his arm should be built up well enough to handle a full-season workload as a starter. As an added bonus, this would delay his service time by at least two months, thus extending the period under which he would be cost controlled and potentially even holding him back from Super-Two status, similar to what we've seen with players like Evan Longoria and David Price in recent years.
Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go look for some fire retardant clothing while you all ponder this suggestion.
4 recs |
38 comments
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Comments
Or, we could just fire Jerry....
And put an end to this foolishness.
by Cranky50 on Mar 19, 2010 6:21 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I had written a similarly themed piece,
but saw Mark’s this morning so I chose not to run it. I did take it one step further. It’s not a bad idea, in a vacuum, to start Mejia in the pen. Last week, I did a prospect retro on Pete Schourek. One of the causes I listed for his failure to develop with the Mets organization—or at least the failure of that development to pay immediate dividends—was the Mets’ decision to use him as a reliever in 1991. But the problem wasn’t using Schourek in the bullpen; it was wasting him in the back end of the bullpen, for mop-up duty and situations that don’t actually teach you anything about pitching in the majors. He needed work, not to sit in a bullpen watching tomatoes grow. It wasn’t beneficial for his confidence, and it wasn’t especially beneficial for his pitching IQ either. Pedro Martinez almost exclusively pitched out of the bullpen at the start of his career. The Houston Astros under Gerry Hunsicker made a point of giving Roy Oswalt eight relief appearances before moving him to the starting rotation, even though they needed him earlier. What could eight relief appearances have done? Maybe it taught Oswalt to rely on his stuff and just focus on getting hitters out. Or maybe it was just a waste of time. I don’t know, but I do know it sure didn’t hurt.
Mejia isn’t Oswalt, Martinez, or Schourek. It might not help much at all. But at the very least it’s not in and of itself harmful, and I think there are logical benefits in easing a guy into the majors. That said, and as Mark says above, the goal should be to make Mejia the best starting pitcher he can be, even if there is a stopover in the bullpen. And if you do put him in the pen for a whole year, he better be making a difference for the team, and he better be getting regular work.
And there’s another wrinkle: what may be good for Mejia in general may not be good for him as a New York Met. The New York media is looking for blood after feeling vindicated on the Joba front; they aren’t going to let go as easily this time (and they never let go with Joba).
the thing is
I get the desire to have Mejia in the ‘pen. In fact, I fully support him being in the Mets bullpen at some point this season. But it shouldn’t be out of the gate. Let him start in the minors, get him to within ~20-25 IP of his season limit down there, and then call him up and let him pitch out of the ’pen in September. If the Mets are in a pennant race, maybe he can really come up and have an impact on it, ala Frankie in 2003 for the Angels.
2009 Did Not Happen
This, I agree.
Personally, I think it makes more sense for Mejia to not break camp with the team, go through the motions in the Minors, and come back in September, to a possibly important role, a la Joba in 2007. A lot needs to go right for the Mets to contend- I’m not saying it’s not possible, but the stars really need to align here. Towards the beginning of the season, right out of the gate, there’s plenty of jockeying for position and such. Towards the end of the season, that’s when individual players can have huge impacts on the ultimate result of the team (a la K-Rod with the Angels, as mentioned). Why “expose” him to the possible wear and tear of being a Major Leaguer, and expose hitters to him throughout the entire year, when you can accomplish everything you want with him as a reliever near the end of the season, instead?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 19, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't disagree in theory or as an armchair analyst
But if I were running the team, I would refuse to work under the hypothetical that I don’t expect to contend. Its bad business for a large market team like the Mets, even if in the long run it costs them some service time in, say, 2017, it costs them fanbase support right now (which is the same thing as gate fees) to concede this early, especially when they have an offense that looks likely to be in the upper half of NL teams in runs scored.
That’s not to say I don’t think Mejia should spend the first five months in the minors and then potentially get called up in September, I do think that’s a wiser course of action, but again, I was operating under the hypothetical condition that he’ll be there in April.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 19, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I just think
if he breaks camp with the ML team, unless he gets absolutely rocked, he’s a reliever the whole year. Your scenario is fine, but I give the Mets about a .00000000001% chance of actually doing that. They just don’t think that way, unfortunately.
2009 Did Not Happen
I'll agree that its probably pretty implausible given the players involved
At the very least, its more plausible they just play it safe and leave him in the minors, the smartest move anyway. But I don’t think its that unthinkable to a guy like Omar though. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he has at least already played out a thought process like this, or at least that someone has had a discussion about a plan like this. He’s made it pretty clear that he’s not nearly as gung-ho as Jerry about making Mejia a reliever, but he also does know his job is on the line and it could help his image if the organization could show some player development results. Someone in the organization has a purely developmental plan for Jenrry, and Omar knows the only way Jenrry’s going to save his perceived skin is if he becomes an ace or a closer, and there’s much more room for him develop the former than the latter.
Then again, maybe I’m grasping at straws, but what fun would AA be if we only talked about things the organization might actually do?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 19, 2010 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Hah, sorry Alex!
You got dibs on the next big prospect controversy. Promise.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 19, 2010 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing is
I don’t think the mets really…. you know… plan things. so there goes that idea.
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Mar 19, 2010 9:52 AM EDT reply actions
I'm pretty certain that would defeat the entire purpose of this plan
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
when you read that and then you read your signature, it's hilarious.
just read it out loud.
you know what I'm sayin' ?
My thoughts exactly
The plan is to send him to the minors after a certain innings threshold, regardless of MLB performance. The “caveat” flies directly in the face of the plan.
by James Kannengieser on Mar 19, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I like this plan
It seems to address all of the objections on both sides. If only there was some indication that Jerry would ever see it…. o well.
That said, even if he dominates out of the pen I want him back to the minors. I would much rather see him dominate in the rotation in a year then in the pen now. However good he is, one more receiver out of the pen is not going to do anything more then add a couple of wins to the record this season. Long run, it would be better to wait on him and then when he’s flaming hitters once every five games and adding 16-17 wins to our record he will have a much more palpable effect
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Mar 19, 2010 10:13 AM EDT reply actions
It might not, though
Long run, it would be better to wait on him and then when he’s flaming hitters once every five games and adding 16-17 wins to our record he will have a much more palpable effect
What if sending him back down when he’s pitching well doesn’t help him develop? We’re talking about giving him ML experience and confidence, but what would demoting him when he’s getting the job done do?
Why is that an issue?
If he’s told he’s just getting sent down to stretch out, that should be a confidence booster if anything, since they’re telling him he’s ready to be a starter in the majors. Either way, if he is on the major league roster, he’ll make the major league minimum, which is far more money that he’s ever made before, and if Costa’s story is accurate, that should be a pretty big deal for him to begin with. The only way this objection is valid is if he’s effective and the Mets don’t need an additional starting pitcher, but that’s a problem that can a) be easily explained to him (Remember, the kid is just 20 years old and started last year in HiA, so he wasn’t exactly expecting to be in the majors this year anyway) and b) dealt with when it comes up. I don’t see this as a problem in any of the other possible outcomes.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 19, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
My one big issue with this:
If Jenrry starts the season with the team and pitches 20-25 absolutely lights-out innings out of the pen, how does the team then send him down to the minors? Even if the team announced this plan ahead of time, don’t you think the local media explodes over the idea of sending him down if he’s blowing guys away out of the ‘pen? Hell, don’t you think you get people inside the organization getting upset and leaking to beat writers over it? If he pitches well during this run, I think giving him limited innings at the beginning of the year with the idea of sending him down mid-season just exacerbates the “controversy” that we’d all love to avoid.
In short, my big issue is that I don’t think the Mets have the fortitude/wherewithal to stick with the plan you have outlined here in the face of inane NY media pressure.
Good post, tho.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Mar 19, 2010 10:22 AM EDT reply actions
Addendum:
If he starts the season with the big club and sucks, then I think that your plan will work just fine.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Mar 19, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Shhhh
They’re not supposed to know that’s what I suspect would happen.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 19, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
This it the big problem
The plan is, in abstract terms, excellent, but we are dealing with a fickle, neurotic, selfish front office with a low baseball IQ (or at least one which has demonstrated that baseball concerns are secondary to all kinds of other stuff, much of which is actively against the long-term interests of the ballclub. So I’ve rec’d the plan, because it shows that if you have people who think creatively working in your interest you can actually deal with stuff like this in a rational manner. Unfortunately that is just not the Mets way.
Of course, but if that objection is valid
Its equally valid to a plan that involves just sending him to the minors and doing the right thing in the first place. I just wanted to work out what the right plan would be under the hypothetical assumption that he’s already a ticketed to be a major league reliever.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 19, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd almost like to see this plan flipped.
I’d like to see Omar put his foot doan and tell Jerry that he wants to see Mejia in Buffalo to get 5-6 starts before a call up. This would assure that Mejia is under team control until at least 2016, and allow one of the guys that would need to clear waivers a legitimate shot at proving themselves. The fact that Omar has to be feeling the pressure as much as Jerry really can’t be helping in this situation. I will give Omar some credit though, he’s shown he’s fairly adept at identifying talent and evaluating their ceilings in the past.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
Service Time shouldn't be an issue
In this plan, at most Mejia will have about 300 days of service time going into 2012. That would probably be enough to avoid super-2, and it would make it impossible for him to reach FA before 2017 either way. The problem with giving him 5-6 starts is that if you stick him in the bullpen after that, you have to stretch him out again if you want him to start, and 5-6 starts plus five months of relief duty probably won’t get him past the 100 inning mark for the season.
Honestly, part of my thinking here is that he’s simply not MLB ready, and shouldn’t be starting major league games unless he absolutely dominates either in Triple-A as a starter or in the majors as a reliever first, so this is kind of just a proxy plan so that the organization can convince itself to eventually do the right thing and give him most of the year to start in the minors.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 19, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not that concerned with service time (as I doubt he'd be up to stay), I'd more use it as a selling point with Jerry.
Of course if I was Omar, I’d have fired Jerry anyway so it really doesn’t matter.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
Lol can't disagree there
Knowing what I know now, I’d probably have fired him before I fired Willie. One thing we never really discuss is what kind of impact he could have had pre-2008. He definitely had Willie’s ear, and this isn’t to absolve Willie of his bullpen mismanagement or anything, but its something that we really can’t know. What kind of impact did Jerry have as a bench coach?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 19, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd have let Willie finish the season,
and then canned everyone on his staff except Peterson. I’d also have been out there paying whatever I had too to bring in Jaramillo, and paid big to get Bobby V to leave Japan (I’m so glad he’ll still be out there when Jerrys contract runs up at the end of this season).
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
No Bullpen
With Manuel’s love of burning out relievers Minaya just has to Say No to Mejia in the Bullpen maybe bring him up as a starter in a month or 2 to replace Perez or Maine that makes more sense
Yeah that's one thing people have mentioned as much
the fact even pitching out of the bullpen Meija is more likely to get overworked by June with Jerry than he would starting in the minors.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I really despise that man
He makes creative thought about this team thoroughly unenjoyable.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 19, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm conflicted
On the one hand, you guys sound like the Yankee fans who want Joba to start instead being groomed to take Mariano’s spot, which is what the Yankees should do. If Jennry can dominate the rest of ST and shows he has the make-up to be the 8th inning guy, and our future closer, then I think he should be given a chance.
On the other hand, I can see the Mets doing with him what we did with Doc back in ’84. Let him pitch a few games in the minors and then bring him up in May or June if Maine, Perez, or Pelfrey stumble (like Sir Tmac said).
In the end, if the Mets bring him north to pitch the 8th, I’m not all that troubled by it.
"Never throw a slider to The Glider."
- Ed Charles, No. 5
Why is that what the Yankees should do?
And why would you rather have a closer than a starter? We have 10,000 guys who can be closers, Niesen coming to the forefront of my mind. But very few guys with quality starting potential.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
by Gina on Mar 19, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Doc did not start 1984 in the minors
He made the team out of ST and his first start was in the the fifth game of the season.
"I've been trying transcendental meditation, and that helps me be passive and wait on the curve. I've got to find something else to hit the slider." - George (The Stork) Theodore
I, personally, want Joba to be their closer
because that’s them not getting the maximum value from a pitcher who has been a starter all of his career, and clearly can put up more value as a starter than as a closer. It’s a convoluted way of rooting against them by them not using their resources to maximum efficiency.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 19, 2010 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Also I feel like this is a discussion we should be having about Holt instead of Meija
both of them have fantastic fastballs with shaky secondary offerings. But Holt is 3 years older I believe so you would assume his ceiling is likely lower because he has fewer “developmental” years left to figure things out. If they’re going to rush one of them needlessly it would make 10x more sense to do it with Holt. But instead they seem determined to pretend he doesn’t exist.
I know when Evans/Murphy were first called up a lot of people brought up the fact that it seems like the more the mets front office doesn’t care about you/forgets you exist the better off you’ll be developmentally, because they won’t be determined to rush you. It seems like the same thing’s happening with Meija and Holt.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
That's definitely a thought
Holt was supposedly in the doghouse a bit for skipping instructs this year. I can’t think of any other reason he wasn’t invited to camp.
The other thing is, even though he throws hard, his fastball isn’t as good as Jenrry’s, and I’m not talking projection, I’m talking right now. He doesn’t throw a cutter like Jenrry, and though he does get movement, its more John Maine-esque movement: running in on righties, especially up in the zone, but not so much sink. His delivery isn’t as quiet as Maine’s either, he doesn’t have Maine’s sneakiness. He doesn’t even throw quite as hard as Mejia does, and its not like his command is significantly more refined. I would even argue that Mejia’s secondary pitches are more advanced, as both frequently flash plus in one way or another, they’re just inconsistent. Mejia’s curve in particular has come a lot further over the last year than Holt’s. His changeup was already probably better, even though he needs to find a way to throw it a bit slower, he commands it better and repeats his delivery with it better.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 19, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
























