Make-The-Mets-O-Meter: Pitchers, Vol. 1
by Eric Simon on Mar 2, 2010 5:00 AM EST
75 comments
The Mets are in camp, everyone is in the best shape of his life, and yesterday was the first intra-squad game. And the Mets won! I think. I don't know, actually, since I didn't see the results. But hey, baseball, right?
As they do every year, the Mets have a boatload of players in Port St. Lucie vying for a spot with the big club. Also like every year, there is no conceivable way most of these guys will make the team. Of course, if things go horribly awry as they did in 2009, having some extra warm bodies on the farm can only help.
Since most of the players in camp don't really deserve more than a sentence or two describing their current status, we've got the Make-The-Mets-O-Meter, which conveniently summarizes the likelihood that each player will make the Opening Day roster.
Today we'll look at the pitchers in camp; tomorrow we will get to the position players.
| Player |   | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Blackley, LHP | |
Australian lefty with limited upside, though he looked pretty good as a reliever with the Diamondbacks' AAA club last season. |
| Elmer Dessens, RHP |  |
Doesn't have much to write home about. His 3.31 ERA in 2009 looks like an aberration, as he struck out less than four batters per nine innings. |
| R.A. Dickey, RHP | |
Throws a knuckleball. Went to the same high school as Sam. Can't win 'em all, I guess. |
| Jack Egbert, RHP | |
Pitched for the White Sox in 2009, primarily in the minors. The Rutherford, NJ native has a career minor league groundball-to-flyball rate of better than 2-to-1. |
| Clint Everts, RHP* | |
Went to Cypress Falls High School in Houston with Scott Kazmir, and was selected ten spots earlier than Kaz in the 2002 draft. High-strikeout, high-walk guy who has yet to throw a pitch in the big leagues. |
| Josh Fogg, RHP | |
His durability as well as his flexibility to pitch out of the bullpen or the rotation could give him the inside track. His nickname "Dragon Slayer" is awesome. |
| Nelson Figueroa, RHP* | |
Figueroa went 2-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 44 strikeouts to 16 walks down the stretch with the Mets last season. He might be an above-average pitcher, which the Mets should certainly have a place for. |
| Eddie Kunz, RHP* | |
Kunz should really be better than he has been. His groundball rate has been terrific, but he walked almost a batter every two innings last season and allowed eight homeruns in 62 innings. |
| Bobby Livingston, LHP | |
Junkballing lefty with a below-average fastball, Livingston relies on his command to get hitters out. When he gets them out. Which isn’t as often as it needs to be. |
| Arturo Lopez, LHP | |
Grabbed off waivers from the Padres in 2009, was designated for assignment to make room for Rod Barajas and, in what was surprising to no one, went unclaimed and came back to the Mets. |
| Jay Marshall, LHP* | |
Sidearming lefty who keeps the ball on the ground and dominates left-handed batters. He allows very few homeruns and showed excellent control in the minors. Could be a lefty Chad Bradford. |
| Pat Misch, LHP* | |
Mediocre pitcher all around, it's hard to believe that Misch made seven starts with the Mets last summer. The Mets will be in bad shape if he makes another seven this summer. |
| Carlos Muñiz, RHP | |
Missed most of 2009 with a shoulder injury, hasn't had a FIP below 4.00 anywhere since 2007. Looked like a decent reliever back then. Now, not so much. |
| Jon Niese, LHP* | |
Niese has a good chance to make the Mets' rotation out of camp, though he will get plenty of competition from Figueroa and Nieve. Niese has youth on his side, but he also has options, which could mean he starts the season in Triple-A Buffalo. |
| Eric Niesen, LHP | |
Destroys lefties; righties, less so. Niesen is the #19 prospect in the Amazin' Avenue Annnual, and his increased strikeout rate in 2009 is probably the reason why. |
| Fernando Nieve, RHP* | |
Nieve's stuff always seems better than the results. He's still just 27 and he throws a fastball in the mid-nineties, but he has just average strikeout numbers in 143 big-league innings and below-average walk and homerun numbers to complement. |
| Bobby Parnell, RHP* | |
Spent 2009 with the Mets, starting eight games and coming out of the bullpen in sixty more. His 4.74 xFIP is not so hot, but his t-shirt design wasn't half-bad. |
| Tobi Stoner, RHP* | |
Great control, poor strikeout numbers will likely keep him from being anything beyond roster fodder. He's still just 25, but his highest strikeout rate since A-ball was 6.72 in Double-A in 2008. |
| Hisanori Takahashi, LHP | |
Not Ken Takahashi, Hisanori has averaged better than three strikeouts per walk over the past three seasons in Japan. A screwball seems to be his out pitch; the Japanese John Franco? |
Key:
= Chance of making the Mets is unchanged.
= Chance of making the Mets is going down.
= Chance of making the Mets is going up.
* = player on 40-man roster
0 recs |
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I can't imagine a situation where Parnell doesn't make the team
Goodbye Sir Dr. Sen. Brain SOCKS! D.D.S.R.S.V.P
I'd have to agree.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 2, 2010 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
Is there any chance
to look at Parnell’s xFIP in the pen and starting?
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
hmm FIP and tRA like him better than xFIP
tRA and xFIP are the better indicators of future performance, I’m inclined to say that he’ll have about a 4 ERA (I know, ERA is a bad talent evaluator, but its probably his true talent level)
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
.2010?
With all the uncertainties surrounding this pitching staff I wish we had better options. I’m ok (not ecstatic)with the offense, however , since great pitching beats great hitting. You would think the ownership’s top priority this off season would have been the up grade the pitching staff. Now all we have left is to pray for career years from maine/pelfrey and ollie and if that doesn’t work 3rd place with 81 wins..
If they carry 12 pitchers, there are 3 spots open (considering that Kelvin starts at DL and Parnell is a lock for BP).
Out of the Figgy-Nieve-Niese trio, one is going to be the 5th starter, another will be RP.
So, there is really just one last BP spot, for a 2nd lefty, another SP-turned-RP, a knuckleballer or the Dragon Slayer.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
From the ESPN fantasy baseball website
FWIW: Mejia tossed two scoreless innings in the Mets’ intrasquad game Monday, allowing one hit while striking out two.
Spin:
It’s just an intrasquad game but it looks like the Mets will give Mejia a shot to earn a bullpen role. They would be better served allowing him to develop as a starter in the minors, but with Kelvim Escobar sidelined and no clear-cut eighth-inning reliever, Mejia could show enough this spring to earn that role.
Sounds like a terrible, terrible idea to me, so it will almost certainly happen
Agreed
We should have a pen of Frankie, Parnell, Green, Igarashi, Feliciano, Nieve/Figgy, Calero/Beimel. Mejia better start in Buffalo. If he dominates his first 10 starts or so, I’m sure there will be a spot for him on the club.
by Evan_S on Mar 2, 2010 9:26 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I hope he starts in Binghamton
I really don’t want to see him here till september
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
No Mejia. No.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 2, 2010 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
nooooooooooooooooooo
he’s never going to develop as a starter if you throw him into the bullpen like that
Here's an idea
why not invite Brad Holt to spring training and put the guy with lower upside and a smaller chance of being a front end starter, not that I’m saying he has a small chance just smaller than Meija’s, into the bullpen?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
no that's too much
we have to take baby steps with the mets.
What would make sense: take Eric Niesen, who’s pretty much proven he can’t be stretched out unless you want his arm to fall off, put him on the fast track in the AA and AAA bullpen and leave Meija and Holt to develop and call up Niesen if you need bp help.
What they’ll do: Meija in the bullpen, Holt will get the Nick Evans treatment and slowly cease to exist, Niesen will go to the AA rotation and he’ll by on the 60 day DL by early June.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I have a gut feeling we'll be the team to sign him if he signs in spring training.
I think Omar will get desperate to add another setup guy type if Escobar isn’t back quick and cave to his demands.
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
At this point, even if we cave to his demands, do you think his demands are going to be that otherworldly?
Unless Omar bids against himself, which he is very likely to do, but…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 3, 2010 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
I honestly think he's just looking for a major league deal at this point
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
If he doesn't look good and needs to be sent down he'd almost certainly clear waivers because of the 2 year deal.
I think he’d be a lock for opening day, but I can see him spending some time in AAA if he really needs to.
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
He looked good today.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 2, 2010 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
Not bad at all
He didn’t really face the best the Braves had to offer though
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
Has Jay Marshall even reported to camp? I thought they were trying to void the waiver claim because of an injury.
No Nieve has no options left
"Wait till Biggus Dickus hears about this!"
by scott from peekskill on Mar 2, 2010 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
if that is the case
then both Nieve and Figgy should be on the roster. With our pitching such a question mark, losing either of them would be a crime.
I like Neise, but if he has options they should be used.
Which of course means
Nieve, Niese and Figgy will somehow be left off the roster Meija will end up in the bullpen and Brad Holt will cease to exist.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I think they'd be more likely to make it through waivers before opening day than once the season gets underway,
just do to other teams roster crunch situations. If Niese looks better than them in spring training, I’m all for giving him the spot.
This is also the first time in a while that the Mets are pretty high on the waiver list for opening day, so they may be in a position to claim a decent player or two that may be an upgrade from Nieve or Figgy.
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
with so many question marks
it just seems silly to risk losing some quality arms.
By the end of april, I can guarantee there will be at least 1 pitcher that looks like they need to go. Niese will get his shot.
I can see that
I guess I just don’t think it would really be that hard to replace guys like that. Those types of guys are fairly readily available on waivers quite a bit, and I don’t really worry too much if we lose one of them. I just can’t see both of them getting claimed if they manage to get beat out by Jon Niese.
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
i was about to show you
all the majorly craptastic pitchers that started for us last year… but turns out it wasnt that bad. So my argument is weakened a little…
I guess if Niese DOMINATES them he should get the spot… but it sure wouldnt hurt him to take it slow to start the season. There is the whole idea of young pitchers not throwing too much early on… and him being a mid season call up lends to that much better then him getting 30 starts.
Also why experience in a season thats lost anyway would be good
to help him get over rookie butterflies or w/e before we really need him, it would also make him FA eligible a year early.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I think it may be a little early to call it a lost season
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
Unless you were referring to last year...can't really tell.
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
well I suppose it is too early for it to be considered lost
Just that rather than calling him up early in a season that at this point we don’t look to be particularly competitive in why not give possible diamond in the roughs like Figgy or Nieve a chance before we bring up a young player.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
The catching prospect or guitarist?
Cause I’d love to watch Santana catch Santana while listening to Santana.
Where does Carlos Santana the soccer player fit into all of this?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 3, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
If he played CF 10 years ago, he has a shot at the starting job.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
the "meter" does a great job of giving an overview
Nice job to whoever came up with that. Miscellaneous trivial tangent: Alcides is Kelvim’s first cousin and mentions him in this story.
I'm firmly on the Clint Everts bandwagon
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
+1
maybe not out of camp but i think he will have his say on things by year’s end
by Rob Castellano on Mar 2, 2010 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
I'm hoping by years end Niesen is in the pen as well.
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
i tend to favor merritt
as i’m not convinced that niesen won’t continue to develop as a starter
by Rob Castellano on Mar 2, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's fairly safe to say
considering the numbers or injuries, and the severity of them, he’s had so far in their limited attempts to try and stretch him out that even if he has starter stuff the risk of further injury trying to stretch him out again might outweigh the benefits of him starting over him relieving. I think Meddler, sorry I can’t remember how to spell your real name, mentioned he’s had to arm fractures or something and it’s really amazing he can even still pitch.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Wasn't that Rustich?
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
He learned to throw underhand
That’s Gangsta
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
better question would be does Green have options remaining...?
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Mar 2, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
well technically
i think he’s got 1 option year left but despite what you’re getting at, green is as much of a lock for the bullpen as you can find.
by Rob Castellano on Mar 2, 2010 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
I mean, why should he be?
I don’t doubt that he is a lock right now… though frankly, I’d say he could be one guy who could pitch himself off the roster during the Spring….
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Mar 2, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
Green
Actually had the 2nd best xFIP to Feliciano last year (although he basically equaled Frankie’s). Evan said it above — he’s not great but he’s definitely major league worthy and has uses.
by James Kannengieser on Mar 2, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
have you seen his L/R splits?
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Mar 2, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, they're pretty terrible
But at the same time, most hitters are right handed, and when there is a lefty to face, there’s always the LOOGY.
Hopefully plural
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
yep, he's as much a roogy as PedroF is a loogy.
It’s kinda tough to carry 2 RPs out of 7 who are handicapped by being so specialized when you consider that another one is held till the 9th and yet another is usually held for long relief opportunities. That leaves 2 of 5 who are best used for a batter or 2…. you just run the risk of getting exposed when PF faces a RHed hitter or when Green faces a lefty bat.
Beimel, for one, is viable against both LHed and RHed hitters…. which is why I’d take a hard look at him if we were going to add someone now… we def should not be looking for another loogy, imo.
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Mar 2, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
Green navigating a R-L-R inning isn't so terrifying
As long as the L isn’t up with runner on base or is a really good hitter. The reverse goes for Feliciano in a L-R-L inning.
by James Kannengieser on Mar 2, 2010 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
sure, but most of the time
these guys come in with RO…
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Mar 2, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
of course this is a matter of acceptable percentages....
and the bottom line is that these 2 are ineffective pitching against their opposite sides.
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Mar 2, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
roy merritt
i know he’s not in camp but i figure that by the ASB he’s got to be as good a bet for the 2nd string LOOGY role as anyone currently auditioning in ST
personally i feel that the presence of quality options like merritt, niesen & takahashi then depth guys like lopez, marshall (if healthy), blackley and livingston neutralize the idea of bringing in joe beimel, no matter how cheap he may be.
Niesen...
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
The thing with Niesen
is that he has the stuff to be a dominant reliever. He was actually pretty decent against right handed hitters last year, a 4.00 FIP. At worst he’ll be a LOOGY because the movement on his pitches is ridiculous. I don’t think he’ll ever have the command to be a starter, but if improves a little, he should be a permanent piece in the bullpen for a long time.
These are always the shiznit, loves 'em
I almost wish Niese didn’t have options remaining. In my mind, he’s clearly ready, and would probably be the 2nd or 3rd best pitcher in the rotation, but the options make him attractive in Triple-A…
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
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