Sherman on Trading F!

Apologies if this has been passed on already, I couldn't see it. Sherman speculates on the Mets trading El Martillo at the deadline for an ace.

about 2 years ago deadspy3 23 comments 0 recs |

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I don't see it, but mainly because I dont think that any pitchers of that caliber will be available this July.

Brandon Webb is the only top flight guy I can think of who’s contract status would dictate that he should be dealt (and plays for a team that probably can’t afford to keep him), and if Webb is ace-like I can’t see Arizona being in a position to sell. I think a mid-rotation starter is all that will likely be available this deadline, and I certainly hopr Omar isn’t dumb enough to swap Fernando for that. If a move like that is made, I’d have to think it would be next offseason.

Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway

by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 23, 2010 6:01 PM EDT reply actions

i was actually thinking about this

but not for an ace, for a similarly-valued pitching prospect. specifically, when i heard something about how the reds top 3 of cueto, volquez and chapman will be set for years to come i was wondering if they would be willing to part w/ homer bailey. they’ve got to be getting sick of his act by now and he strikes me as a kind of post-hype sleeper type player who could thrive after a trade, especially out of that park.

i don’t love the idea but it interested me to think about, as we have OF depth but could use a young pitcher whereas they seem to have the top of their rotation set but could really use a young center fielder.

the reason i don’t love it is because while i like him, i’m definitely not sold that homer bailey will ever live up to his billing as a future ace. plus he’s already got 2.5 years of service time under his belt, so it’s not quite a fair swap even if they do both reach their ceilings. but still, something interesting to consider.

by sage3775 on Mar 23, 2010 6:14 PM EDT reply actions

I'm not sure about a similary valued pitching prospect

So many more things can go wrong with pitching prospects, unless they’re absolutely ml ready, that it’s hard to find a pitching prospect who’s truly similarly valued to F-mart, considering his upside. The ones with high upside usually aren’t going to be easily parted with unless they have major red flags, more so than F-mart.

I’m also not sure we really have OF depth. We have Beltran with bad knees and a contract that will soon be expiring, Jason Bay who’s on the wrong side of the aging curve, Frenchy who is a major question mark and is no guarantee to be here next year, and we may not even want him here, Pagan who’s true talent level we don’t really know and Carter who they seem determined to turn into Nick Evans part II. And past F-mart and Captain Kirk I can’t think of any outfielders in the minors even semi-touted.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Mar 23, 2010 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

that was me on my brothers computer by the way.

but i agree, i don’t necessarily condone such a trade, i’ve always been one who feels that we should keep him. but if we’re going to deal him, i’d rather go after another young/cost controlled player with a similarly high ceiling than a potential 4 month rental like webb or lee.

by Rob Castellano on Mar 23, 2010 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree that would be the prefered route if we did trade him

I’m just not sure what a pitcher of comparable value would be. I imagine it would either be one with high upside but WAY farther off than Meija, like somewhere between Familia and Meija but closer to Familia. Or someone much closer but either with decidedly lower upside or major red flags/struggles.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Mar 23, 2010 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions

idk

i think i value bailey lower than you do (which is why i think twice about the trade).

he’s been in the majors for over 2 years and has really only looked good in brief stretches, mostly struggling to throw strikes and giving up way too many bombs. one could even say he didn’t even fare that well in Triple-A. while his stuff is clearly what fuels the hype around him, it’s been a couple years since his last good full season, which has got to dim his prospect star. now he’s still only 23 and his walks have come down, but so too have his strikeouts; i’d say he’s no longer the unblemished prospect he once was.

by Rob Castellano on Mar 23, 2010 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions

No I'm saying I would value Bailey too low

I’d consider him having too many red flags for it to be a deal to do straight up for F-mart.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Mar 23, 2010 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions

He's out of options as well, so if he struggles he has to do it at the major league level.

I think he’s a guy we could get for far less than F!

Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway

by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 23, 2010 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions

oh my fault

misread you on that one, my mistake. then we’re on the same side of the fence then.

by Rob Castellano on Mar 23, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions

If we were really in contention, I could deal with sending him out for a guy like Lee or Webb (assuming Webb is healthy again)

Those guys are locks to net draft picks, and will most likely be costly enough that they sign with a team drafting in the 2nd half of the first round. I just don’t want to see him dealt for spare parts.

Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway

by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 23, 2010 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Flores?

It’s doubtful he’s going to stay at SS and Wright would be blocking him at 3B. If Davis sticks at 1B could a move to a corner OF spot be in order for Wilmer?

by keithprime on Mar 24, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Most reports seem to say he's way too slow

I think Mark mentioned that scouts put him at a 20 on the 20-80 scale for speed.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Mar 24, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Your thoughts?

How do you feel about the organization’s tendency to keep prospects at a position they clearly won’t be playing in the majors? I.e., Flores – SS, Havens – SS, etc.

by keithprime on Mar 24, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope the "declining opinion" of Martinez as a prospect doesn't prompt Omar to trade him.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 23, 2010 6:45 PM EDT reply actions

Omar's favorite thing to do is sell low.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Mar 23, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, it's a forgone conclusion.

I just hope we get someone/a package halfway decent in return.

Rickie Weeks is still on the trading block, right? Oh god…

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 23, 2010 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Is he?

Of course I wouldn’t want to trade F! for Weeks, but I wouldn’t mind acquiring him to replace Castillo.

by keithprime on Mar 24, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I remember hearing that he was during the Winter, and I don't know if anything changed, but...

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 24, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I think part of that was either to move Escobar there or retain Felipe Lopez.

Since those options aren’t on the table anymore, I’d guess he’ll be tougher to get.

Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway

by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 24, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah i think the goal was to either move Hardy or Weeks

now that Hardy’s been moved Weeks probably isn’t actively being shopped.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Mar 24, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

This is a terrible idea.

F! is on track to replace Beltran in CF. With Beltran’s recurring leg injuries, I think it would be a bad idea to resign him.

by keithprime on Mar 24, 2010 12:09 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think he's on track to replace Beltran

most reports still have him slotted as a corner outfielder in the majors. He may get a try out in CF this year with our lack of options while Beltran’s out but at this point most signs still point to a corner spot.

"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'

it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.

by Gina on Mar 24, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Ok.

But given these reports, he is at worst still a possibility to replace Beltran in CF. They would be dumb is they traded him if there is any chance he could replace Beltran. However, I also believe it would be dumb to trade him regardless.

by keithprime on Mar 24, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions