Dave Allen at The Baseball Analysts provides this graph of projected wins for NL East teams per the various systems. 75-80 wins is the general consensus and all but one system projects 4th place. Trying hard to remain objective, 80-85 wins is my prediction.
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Not good
So what does this mean for Jerry. If they win 79 games is he not considered to be part of the problem? If they win 90 games will he be signed to a 5-year extension?
OR
We win more and it’s a damned exciting season. Hey, since these projections serve no purpose, really, especially at this late stage, I feel no guilt in tossing them out the fucking window.
Agreed.
I love statistics but on March 29th I’m ready to just enjoy it. Yeah they’ll probably suck because the numbers (which I agree with) say they will, but maybe not.
Same here
I mean, if you can’t be blindly optimistic one week before Opening Day, when can you? Right now, I’m envisioning some sunshine on Monday, a few cold beers and a couple of Shackburgers before watching Johan throw a gem.
by Bieser's Balk on Mar 29, 2010 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
My boss already knows I'm taking monday off.
I told him when I got hired though, because Opening Day is my favorite holliday of the year.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Holliday?
so you didn’t want Jason Bay
by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Mar 30, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
heh
That’s amusing. Just more examples of why these various systems and projections are inaccurate, at best.
-Ceetar, the Optimistic Mets Fan
eh if you take out vegas
which I don’t think uses some sort of advanced stat projection system i don’t think you see as much variation in the predictions.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Yeah, some elaboration on that would be nice
Mets overrated? Underrated?
by James Kannengieser on Mar 29, 2010 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
No one better be saying we're overrated with 75-85 wins...
That’d just be disheartening.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 29, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
in fact they "are innaccurate, at best"
at worst they’re what? Malicious? Conniving? Cataclysmic?
by Pack Bringley on Mar 29, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder what the odds are
on all five NL teams at least finishing .500 this year. I think it could happen.
I still think Washington is a year or two away from that.
They’ll be a fun team to watch after the all-star break though.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I really don't think the Braves are that good.
Good Starting pitching, but that’s about it imo.
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
I really think the Braves are overrated and the Mets and Phillies underrated.
I’d guess the Mets end up about the same record as 2007 or 2008, and I’m guessing the Braves are under 85 winzzzzz. I think Philly is in line to win 95.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 8:53 PM EDT reply actions
I think the braves will depend on entirely on Larry and Heyward
which is interesting since their on opposite points in their career.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
The Braves project well, but when you really look at them I can't see anyone other than Glaus and Heyward that are likely to exceed projections.
Between Larry, Jurrjens, Lowe, Diaz, Prado, Melky (outside of the t-ball field), and McClouth I see alot of guys that I really think will be worth less than they are projected. I also really think they are pretty shallow in the upper minors, and they have quite a few injury risks.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Chipper could. People forget that he won a batting title just a year and a half ago. And so could Escobar and McCann. Mac has been killing the ball this spring since he’s had his 2nd lasik surgery.
I do agree tho that McLouth is overrated and I’m still not crazy about our bullpen. It’ll be solid, but not as great as people hype it up to be.
"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when." 3/26/2010 -- The future arrived.
by Scott Coleman on Mar 29, 2010 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions
He won a batting title just a year ago
but he’s also 400 years old, the fact he was as good as he was in 06-08 is borderline miraculous.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
He's 38
He’s also one of the best switch hitters in baseball history. It wasn’t “miraculous” at all.
"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when." 3/26/2010 -- The future arrived.
by Scott Coleman on Mar 29, 2010 9:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
in sports
38 is pretty close to 400. And I’d say someone putting up 6+ win seasons at 35,36,37 is pretty miraculous. I mean the man had an obp of almost .500 in 08. that’s just silly.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
So a 38 year old is lucky if he has an OBP near .500? It doesn’t matter if you’re 38, 58 or 18; an OBP of nearly .500 is fantastic regardless of age. I guess I don’t follow your logic.
"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when." 3/26/2010 -- The future arrived.
by Scott Coleman on Mar 29, 2010 9:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It's fantastic, but likely an outlier more than a pattern.
He has a career BABIP of .317, and he had a BABIP of .383 that season.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
.500 is fantastic regardless of age
but much more unexpected at the end of ones career. overall i’d say the braves will have trouble meeting these projection unless chipper & glaus play like their young selves again and mclouth returns to form.
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
where did I say lucky?
what does luck have to do with anything I said? At 38 it’s miraculous his body hasn’t completely broken down and totally retained his skills for so long. If you’re not following my logic look at a standard aging curve.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I actually really like the bullpen, although I never would have given up a first rounder for Wags.
I’d be more concerned about who is starting pitching depth if one of the top 4 goes down (I’d be scared of Medlen’s splits), as their pitching depth doesn’t look great beyond KK.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions
We jumped the gun on Wags
We shouldve waited on Soriano and Gonzalez to make sure both were gonna give us a draft pick. Essentially we traded a #20 pick for a #33 and #47 pick (or something like that). I’d rather have the #20 pick, but if Wags pitches like we’ve all seen him, it’ll probably be worth it.
"(Jason Heyward) is like the Grim Reaper -- you know he's going to get you, you just don't know where or when." 3/26/2010 -- The future arrived.
by Scott Coleman on Mar 29, 2010 10:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That said, I'd rather have either Gonzalez or Soriano on the deal they signed than the one Wags signed.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Why do you think that?
Our home-made projections had the Mets at 82 wins I think. My prediction for the Mets is around .500. Looking at the Braves roster, they are very good. I would trust these various projections over our own predictions just based on feel or whatever. That said, I find it hard to believe that the Phillies aren’t the clear favorite. Ultimately, I’m stil going with the projections.
I think with the phillies
there’s not much rotation depth, really not much depth anywhere, and they have a few older players, Polanco, Ibanez, Rollins who could go either way.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I look at the Mets and see guys like Reyes, Wright, K-rod, Perez, Murphy, and Maine who have pretty low projections (and I think Bays WAR will shoot up when he gets out of Fenway)
I also think Kawakami and Iggy will be pretty solid. I look at the Braves and see quite a few guys that were healthy and had decent years last year (kind of like the 08 Mets), and can’t really picture too many of those guys that I think are safe bets to exceed those expectations. The Braves don’t have nearly the depth in AAA that they did at the start of last season, so I think they’ll be much harder pressed to deal with injuries (and they added quite a few injury risks).
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you really think Murphy/Maine/Perez/K-rod
are safe bets to exceed theres?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Maine isn't exactly a safe bet, but I think Murph, Perez, and K-rod all either will or be replaced by someone who does.
I’m cautiously optimistic that Perez will have a good season, and I think Murph will have some decent value before Davis replaces him mid-season.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
really I don't think there's any chance Davis is ready mid-season
he might replace him because the mets do weird things but if he does I don’t think he’ll be much if any better. He still has a ton of question marks, mostly hitting lefties and hitting off-speed stuff.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I would like to see
All of the prospects should get a full year in the minors. Mejia shouldn’t leave AA all season. Same with Martinez and Davis in AAA. I’m happy that Niese is now part of the big-league rotation; he has earned that through development (although injuries probably prevented further rushing). I don’t want to see any of our top three prospects, at least those near major-league ready, moved up at all this year. Maybe you can bring Mejia up to AAA at the end of the year or give Davis/F-Mart a cup of big league coffee in September if when we are really tanking, but that’s it.
"F***ing shocker." -Billy Wagner
I also don't think there's much of any chance they replace Perez or K-rod
the mets don’t seem to be friendly with the idea of sunk cost. I imagine even if ineffective, and I don’t expect K-rod to be ineffective I just don’t expect him to be worth much as a closer, they’ll keep running them out there.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I don't really think they'll have to.
I really think that their projections are far closer to the floor of their talents than their ceilings. I really think both will be better than we projected, even if they aren’t really anything special.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
really
why with Perez?
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Perez is only projected at 1.3 WAR.
He’s generally been very durable, and if healthy he really should provide at least that much value.over a full season. He was worth 1.3 in 2008 when he walked almost 5 per 9, so even pretty shitty work should reach his projections. As a whole, the Mets projections haven’t set the bar very high.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Perez is uncensored crap
I don’t even have to argue that. With Rodriguez, I completely agree with you. His fastball saw an uptick in velocity last year (quote me if I’m wrong), and his walk rate will likely not be that high again; he’s a better pitcher than that. But Ollie sucks.
"F***ing shocker." -Billy Wagner
But he's projected to suck
He doesn’t even have to be average to exceed his projections
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd say an FIP in the 4.5-4.75 range for roughly 175 innings is fair to project.
I think the projections are fairly close on his FIP, but shorting his innings quite a bit.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 30, 2010 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
The fan projection is 150 innings, 4.75 FIP, and 1.3 WAR.
So you are slightly optimistic compared to the average fan. I think projection systems are much better at predicting performance that playing time though. Any prediction of Ollie’s innings under what he actually gets would help the Mets in the prediction because someone better would be taking his place.
I think those players you mentioned above have just as much chance to go below projections as above.
It just depends on your point of view.
The Mets won't get close to 85
The chances of even one of “The Three Question Marks” having an average season are very low, if you give it some thought. With that in mind, it would take two or three lightnings-in-a-bottle to give the Mets any sort of pitching this year. The lineup is already hurt, and you probably won’t see Beltran get back before the All-Star break. Reyes is likely to get injured again, as well, and the Red Sox had numerous issues with Bay’s shoulders and knees. The complimentary players are garbage, and while the bullpen could be a strength, it could just as easily be awful. The purpose of 2010, for me, is to get everyone fired. 75-80 wins is likely.
"F***ing shocker." -Billy Wagner
it could be a strength
but with our starting pitching it’s not likely we’ll have many leads late anyway.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Why do you say Reyes is likely to get injured again?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 29, 2010 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions
i have a 100% rock solid prediction lock
it is that larry jones will continue to be a jerkbag butt faced dong wad.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
by kendynamo on Mar 29, 2010 10:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
now i hate larry as much as the next person
but I don’t think he’s actually a jerkbag, he seems like a pretty cool dude. kind of like frenchy but if frenchy didn’t suck at baseball and impregnate hooters waitresses.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
larry did that not frenchy
i goofed up the wording.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I can't hate Larry.
I just can’t hate guys for being f’in good, and he doesn’t really seem like a douche.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
i can't hate chipper
but I hate Larry with the power of 1000 suns.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I boo the hell out of him,
but I do so in a respectful manner
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
He's not a total Victorino. That's why we boo him like that.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 29, 2010 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd give Larry a standing ovation if I was at the park for his last game.
I’d poop in my hand and throw it at Dick-torino.
Who cares how bad the Bay deal will look in 2013, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway
by Stephen Schmidt on Mar 29, 2010 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
plus he's not just f'n good
he’s literally otherwordly, being that good is just cheating IMO.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
It's great being at least kinda sorta the underdog again.
Unless you count payroll. We’ll just agree to forget about that part.
by Jamesir Bensonmum on Mar 29, 2010 11:42 PM EDT reply actions
of topic
but your name always confuses me the way it looks like an even more complicated version of James Kannengeiser’s. Maybe it’s just me.
by Pack Bringley on Mar 29, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm the sexy one.
The fire engine red lipstick is the dead giveaway.
by Jamesir Bensonmum on Mar 29, 2010 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
More complicated than Cannonhoofer?
I can’t even contemplate.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Mar 30, 2010 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
It would be an interesting study to
rate the success of projection systems’ rankings against, say, the Daily News’ yearly baseball preview. The latter doesn’t predict wins, but it does predict each team’s place within the division. It would just be a fun smackdown to see if, in the end, all the mathly effort truly and consistently defeats a baseball writer’s gut.
I mean to do it over a bunch of past years, and I assume the data is availabe
by Pack Bringley on Mar 29, 2010 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
except that would be part of the fun.
The idea is not to vindicate or discredit the method, just see if in the end there’s a point to trusting the output over aforementioned writer’s gut.
by Pack Bringley on Mar 30, 2010 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
ergg, to further clarify
of course going forward you’d rather trust the projection, if you were laying down money, say. But considering all the vagaries of baseball (injury being a big one) how much better do they actually perform.
by Pack Bringley on Mar 30, 2010 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Damn
Why even play the season? Everyone knows sports are predicted in advance.
I've seen the Broncos miss the playoffs three times in the final game the last four seasons. I've seen Brodeur give up 2 goals in the last 1:40 of a Game 7. I've seen the Mets break my heart twice in September. 2010 Mets...please bring me some happiness again!!
That's why I just simulate the seasons with my spreadsheets.
That way there is the least possible human involvement and I can stay in my mother’s basement.
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