A Look at F-Mart

In numerous respects, Spring Training 2010 has hardly gone ideally for the Mets. Several prospects, however, from Ike Davis to Ruben Tejada to Jenrry Mejia have made major strides, offering some fresh hope for the new decade.

Fernando Martinez really stands out for me though; mostly because I have a basis of comparison that goes beyond stat sheets.  After his .176/.242/.275 showing in 91 at-bats last year, Martinez has hit .383/415/.745 in 47 ab this spring.

A small sample size, yes. A few more walks would have been nice as well.  The same tools are there, the range, the bat speed, etc. But there are substantial changes in F-Mart’s game.

For one, F-Mart’s power surge can be attributed to an increased willingness to trust his hands and bat speed. In contrast, like many youngsters, when he arrived on the scene last year as a 20 year-old, Martinez was simply determined to make contact and not embarrass himself at the plate. He was slapping at the ball, making contact out in front of the plate, failing to keep his hands back, sapping him of some of his power.

F-Mart also looks more comfortable in the plate. Say what you will about confidence, but it is difficult to succeed at any sport without it. I did not think his plate discipline was nearly as horrendous as people made it out to be; considering his age, it seemed F-Mart had a decent idea of the plate. That being said, his pitch recognition (laying off the breaking ball) appears improved.

The Mets will likely have F-Mart play RF in Buffalo- perhaps partly because they do not want to give the indication that they have other plans for Carlos Beltran in 2011. He was mostly confined to playing the corners in AAA last year, although he played center for the big club and Jerry Manuel mentioned on several occasions he was competing for the center field spot this Spring.

The best defensive info we have for the minor leagues is Minor League splits’s total zone ratings, which is very similar to UZR. As it says:

+10 is a very good fielder, +15 or more is outstanding. Below -10 is not very good at all. Runs/150 estimates runs saved per 150 games, and is shown for players with at least 1/3 that playing time at a position.

Here is a nice primer as well. What is most important to note is that the average minor league center fielder is as capable defensively as the average big league center fielder. As Sean Smith says:

players lose speed relatively quickly, and outfield range is highly dependent on speed. Also, the lower levels of the minors use the DH in every game, which probably cuts down on the Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell types in minor league outfields. Another thing to consider is that players like Dunn were not the same lumbering plodders in the minors. At age 21, he was likely a good bit lighter on the scale and faster in the field. Major league outfielders, especially at the corners, are selected more for their bats than their gloves, and while having a lot of bulk muscle helps you hit for power, it does not help you chase down fly balls.

Assuming his overall stats are somewhat accurate, it is probably in the Mets best interests he plays the corners. The positional adjustment for center fielders is only +2.5 runs, and F-Mart is perhaps double digits bad defensively.

Here are F-Mart’s career defensive stats, courtesy of MLS:

During the off-season, I pondered the thought that perhaps F-Mart was overrated by some. Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus had him at numbers 77 and 80 (hardly unreasonable) respectively, yet Project Prospect had him at number ten. At least statistically, I didn’t see it. Here is his stat-line, courtesy of Firstinning:

To his credit, he was very young for every level he played at, and more than held his own from 2007-2008 in Binghamton. What I saw, however, were two very good stints (2006 with Hagerstown, 2009 in Buffalo), both of which totaled just 401 plate appearances, and less-than-inspiring numbers in between. For what it is worth, his 2006 BABIP was .391, although his LD% was above league average.

Maybe I just was not lenient enough regarding those seasons in between. Nevertheless, I did not think it unreasonable to think F-Mart was slightly overrated.

The Mets made a point of stocking up on outfield depth this winter, allowing F-Mart to mature in AAA this year. But what happens July 1st, if Jeff Francoeur is hitting .260/.310/.420, the organization still views Angel Pagan as a fourth outfielder, and F-Mart is dominating AAA?