Make-The-Mets-O-Meter: Pitchers, Vol. 2
by Eric Simon on Mar 9, 2010 5:00 AM EST
56 comments
Last week we met all of the pretty ladies. Now that we've got the gravitas of, in some cases, six whole innings of work against a pastiche of retreads and nonentities, let's see whose stock is on the rise and who might need another two, maybe three innings of solid performance to start turning some heads.
Jenrry Mejia is the only addition to the list over last week's; nobody has dropped off yet.
UPDATE: Added Kiko Calero as well.
| Player |   | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Blackley, LHP | |
Will earn five hundred dollery-doos if he makes the team. I made that up. |
| Kiko Calero, RHP |  |
Just signed late last week, but will hopefully see some action soon. |
| Elmer Dessens, RHP | |
Losing the numbers game. Lost the numbers game in 2009 but still appeared in 28 games with the Mets. |
| R.A. Dickey, RHP | |
Three walks and nine hits in five innings. But hey, knuckleballer! |
| Jack Egbert, RHP | |
Two walks, three strikeouts, and a single in two innings. |
| Clint Everts, RHP* | |
One appearance so far. Two strikeouts in 1.1 innings. |
| Josh Fogg, RHP | |
Still has that great nickname. |
| Nelson Figueroa, RHP* | |
Eight strikeouts, three walks, and three singles in six innings. Figgy seems to have the inside track for the last spot in the starting rotation. |
| Eddie Kunz, RHP* | |
Three walks, four earned runs, no strikeouts in 1.1 innings. 27.00 ERA. |
| Bobby Livingston, LHP | |
Five whiffs in 4.2 innings. Southpaw. Uhh… |
| Arturo Lopez, LHP | |
Milk carton time. |
| Jay Marshall, LHP* | |
Nothing thus far. |
| Jenrry Mejia, RHP | |
Mejia wasn't even on the MTMOM last week, but with Jerry Manuel riding on the crazy talk express, anything is possible. |
| Pat Misch, LHP* | |
No runs allowed in six inings and a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 4.00. Lefty to boot. |
| Carlos Muñiz, RHP | |
Hasn't pitched yet. Is that a bad sign? |
| Jon Niese, LHP* | |
He's got five kays and zero injuries in 2.2 innings, but Figueroa seems to be leading this race so far. |
| Eric Niesen, LHP | |
Two runs and six baserunners in 3.2 innings so far. |
| Fernando Nieve, RHP* | |
Three hits, two walks, two strikeouts in three innings. He was already trailing Figueroa in the fifth starter derby, and now Takahashi is jockeying for position. |
| Bobby Parnell, RHP* | |
Four strikeouts in four innings: good. Six hits, three walks, and three runs: less so. The Mejia lovefest isn't doing him any favors. |
| Tobi Stoner, RHP* | |
Just one hit allowed in 2.1 innings, but it was a solo homerun. |
| Hisanori Takahashi, LHP | |
Hisa tossed three scoreless innings in his first spring appearance, striking out six, walking none, and allowing one hit—a seeing-eye single. |
Key:
= Chance of making the Mets is unchanged.
= Chance of making the Mets is going down.
= Chance of making the Mets is going up.
* = player on 40-man roster
0 recs |
56 comments
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Where's Johan??
Maker I hope he makes the team. I had a nightmare he got blasted. I’d fell better if he was on here with a green arrow just so I can get back to sleep.
You may have Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels, and Lidge...but, WE have Fernando Tatis, baby. Two grand slames in one inning. Hello??
Pitchers like Johan, Maine, Perez and Pelfrey
are obviously going to make the team. Anyone with a major league contract will unless they have options, like Parnell
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
Perez needs a red arrow
I was hoping to see a red arrow next to his name, honestly if he doesn’t do something by May 1st, I say cut him or option him to the minors and give the spot to whoever misses out out of Figgy, Nieve, Niese, and Takahashi
by Rickfansince76 on Mar 9, 2010 7:57 AM EST up reply actions
yeah
But in this case I had a dream, so the demand stands
I've seen the Broncos miss the playoffs three times in the final game the last four seasons. I've seen Brodeur give up 2 goals in the last 1:40 of a Game 7. I've seen the Mets break my heart twice in September. 2010 Mets...please bring me some happiness again!!
Time to update the sig.
BAM!
I've seen the Broncos miss the playoffs three times in the final game the last four seasons. I've seen Brodeur give up 2 goals in the last 1:40 of a Game 7. I've seen the Mets break my heart twice in September. 2010 Mets...please bring me some happiness again!!
Where's Igarashi?
Dimes are my favorite US coin. (My subject line summed up my post, so I thought I’d just toss this in for fun.)
He's a lock for making the team.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 9, 2010 8:44 AM EST up reply actions
The crazy talk express is gangsta
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
Something about Elmer Dessens
makes me sad. Maybe it’s the name Elmer
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Mar 9, 2010 8:37 AM EST reply actions
I'm so conflicted.
I want both Tak2 and Figueroa to get the 5th starter job. I’ve liked Tak2 since we singed him, and, so far, he’s been impressive. But, at the same time, I’ve been lobby Nelson Figueroa for a couple of months now, too. He’s been put through so much shit that he deserves a spot in the rotation, until he shows he can’t handle it. Figueroa, we know can throw out of the bullpen, but I think that’s wasting a lot of his talent, by sticking him there. I’d like Dickey as our longman, which, then, would kinda leave Figueroa and Tak2 all in a hard place, in terms of who makes the team as a starting pitcher, and who doesn’t.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 9, 2010 8:47 AM EST reply actions
There are too many guys for the #5 rotation but too many Ollies/Greens locked in.
Niese, Figgy, Tak2 and Nieve as candidates for SP. Even if one makes the rotation and another is the long man, there are many other options for RP too (Kiko, Niesen, Parnell). Waiver and options to be considered too.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
Suppose Niese makes the rotation, Figgy is the long man, Tak2 is sent to AAA and Nieve is lost to waivers.
When Ollie and Maine are taken out of the game before the 6th inning, there will be plenty of work for Figgy. Nieve could share this role too, but they would have to have the guts to demote Green or Parnell.
There are plenty of worst case scenarios like losing more players to waivers, labeling a pitcher as a lefty-specialist even when he has a reverse split and/or Mejia as a setup guy.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
Do you want Dickey based on talent or
because having a knuckleballer would be fun. CHONE is kind of high on Dickey (4.49 FIP) but the other projection systems are not (5-ish.) While Dickey has performed well in minors these past two seasons, his career xFIP (4.78) doesn’t impress me. I think he still needs work and is good depth to have but shouldn’t make the team over Figgy or Takahashi.
The causative relationship is that talent (plus luck) leads to wins. And that talent (plus service time) leads to payrolls.
Moreso the fact that he's a knuckleballer.
Against the NL East, he’s not great (about a 6.23 ERA in +/- 20 IP), but the fact that he’s a knuckleballer gives him a little edge, the fact that he’s a new pitcher in the league and the division gives him a little edge, and the fact that he can throw extra innings, because he is a knuckleballer, makes him attractive as the longman that we don’t use all that often.
Figueroa, or Tak2, they both are a bit more talented than Dickey, but I’d rather see those guys as starting pitchers, because they’d likely be much more valuable there, than as relievers. I don’t want to say that putting either in the bullpen would be a waste of their talent, but…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 9, 2010 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
"I'd like Dickey as our longman"
pause
On his property, Mr. Frazier has created a number of places to unwind — or as he said, "just chill."
by inventor frank on Mar 9, 2010 8:03 PM EST up reply actions
also outside of hoyt wilhelm
nary a knuckler is known for his relief work
and probably for good reason
On his property, Mr. Frazier has created a number of places to unwind — or as he said, "just chill."
by inventor frank on Mar 9, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
Dickey's been a reliever/spot starter for most of his career.
Has hasn’t been all that particularly great, but…If he was a starter, he’d probably be worse. Not pitching against us, though, with his sub-2.00 ERA, though…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 9, 2010 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
:: Rimshot ::
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 9, 2010 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
That's a different kind of shot, or a different use of the term 'rim'.
It’s probably best to not go there, though…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 9, 2010 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
Why NOT...
… DFA Ollie if he shows you nothing and two or more guys without options— say, Tak2 and Figs— are killing it throughout ST?
Hell, if someone wants to claim that, we should throw in Kunz like a free gift with purchase.
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Mar 9, 2010 9:09 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
This is good
except for Dickey, all the guys I like have been pitching well. I guess it’s a good problem to have when you have 3 guys fighting for the 5th spot and all 3 of them look like they deserve it. Of course, it’s not as good of a problem to have when Oliver Perez is penciled in for the 4th spot. I still think he should be fighting for his role…
2009 Did Not Happen
Stock up
Niese – clearly leading the race for the 5th rotation spot, and may be leading for the 3rd and 4th spots as well.
Takahashi – Impressive debut has him looking like a decent back end starter candidate. His fastball and slider aren’t far behind Perez, and he’s got command of a good change and a curve giving him a better overall repertoire. Could slip into the 5th spot if Niese gets the 3rd or 4th.
Nieve – the other candidate looking good for the back end, could also work out of the pen in either short or long releif.
Mejia - Still needs to improve his breaking ball command to be a serious candidate for the rotation, and even a longer shot right now for the bullpen, though his stuff would look great there if needed later on in the season.
Stoner - showing 3 pretty good pitches in the pen. His fastball is solid, with good movement, when he keeps it down in the zone. A dark horse to make it out of camp, but could be useful there during the season with what he’s shown so far.
Everts – Everts is showing a good fastball and a plus curve. His stuff would look very good out of the pen. I’d consider him a long shot to make the Mets, but he could perhaps be putting himself in line for consideration for the closer’s position in Bufallo, just a phone call away.
Holding steady
Parnell – still showing a very good fastball, but still struggling a bit too much with command to be ready to seize the open 8th inning job. But with no one else stepping up, he remains a candidate there. Probably still a better choice than Mejia right now for a power right handed bullpen arm. Could give Igarashi a run for his money as well.
Figueroa – still looks solid as a back end guy, but likely still behind Maine, Niese, Nieve, and now maybe Takahashi as well in the competition for rotation spots. But, he might be the best choice in camp for the job of long man, and still has a good chance to make the opening day roster there.
Igarashi – still looks like a decent candidate for the pen, but if he’s in the competition for the 8th inning role, that’s only by default, as he really hasn’t stood out much either. Fastball is decent, and splitter is decent out pitch. Would look better as a 6th/7th inning type though.
Maine – For better or worse, Maine’s debut was typical John Maine. One concern is the Mets limited him to 39 pitches, which shows there is still some worry about the shoulder. In addition, while his fastball reportedly looked good, and the result wasn’t bad, he only got through 1 2/3 innings with all those pitches. Mejia by contrast, in the same game got through 3 innings in 33 pitches. Maine nonetheless still shows enough promise to maintain a rather tenuous hold on a rotation spot for now.
Dessens – another good candidate for long man, Dessens, who handled the position well enough last season, is looking like his usual competent self. Nonetheless, I would have him a tick behind Figueroa, and now possibly Takahashi, in his battle to retain the position.
Misch – Misch has a below average fastball, which limits his upside, but his command of good secondary offerings is helping to produce results early in camp. With his slow curve, his change, and good fastball location, he keeps hitters off balance by changing both speed and eye level. Still he remains a top candidate to be put on waivers by the end of camp. He doesn’t profile as a lefty specialist, and seems to have less upside than other candidates for long man.
Livingston – It’s been a solid start to camp for Livingston, but he’s probably behind other candidates for the 5th spot and long relief openings. Could perhaps get consideration as a second bullpen lefty, as noone has really seized that role.
Stock down
Perez – Ollie so far hasn’t looked much different than the guy we saw last season, and that isn’t going to be enough to hold onto a rotation spot here with arguably a half dozen guys looking like better candidates. On the bright side, he could be one of the better options for the job of second lefty in the pen, perhaps saving the Mets $2M they might otherwise spend on Joe Beimel.
Kunz – still struggling horribly with his command, he just seems unable to throw strikes
For my part
I would begin the year with Figueroa as No.5, Niese at Buffalo, and Tak2 in the bullpen. I would hope that, eventually, Niese will put pressure on Ollie rather than Figueroa. If Ollie is fine, and Niese is stellar, then fair enough, Figgy to the pen, but I can see a June demotion for Ollie and I would love for Niese to come in and take that spot.
I’m wary of putting too many swingmen types in the pen as they don’t tend to be strikeout pitchers and that’s where the pen has been weak. I would like:
Rodriguez
Calero
Takahashi
Feliciano
Parnell
Igarashi
Green (and then Escobar when he gets fit)
Misch, Niese at AAA
By the way, Escobar should be said in a whispered Jawa voice, as per Star Wars. Can be followed by a loud “Uttini!” if you insist.
5th Spot
Maybe I missed a quote, but I don’t see any indication that Figueroa has the edge on Niese. If anything, I’ve read the opposite.
Just my impression
I feel like Niese needs to have a much better spring than Figueroa to get the last spot in the rotation.
its a rigged game
shades of heilman/bannister in 06
On his property, Mr. Frazier has created a number of places to unwind — or as he said, "just chill."
by inventor frank on Mar 9, 2010 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
Come on, Figgy has almost no shot of making the team as the #5.
Does no one remember that anytime we have cut Figgy that NO ONE has picked him up? He’s good for what he is, AAAA depth. Right now Niese, Nieve and Taka are ALL ahead of him for a roster spot and perhaps even Misch.
Woah, I remember you
from metsblog a while back. Anyway it’s not a good debut here to say “Come onnnnn” to the site’s founder on like your first day. We’re not at each other’s throats here, refreshingly, and have to earn our occasional bouts of negativity.
by letsgocyclones on Mar 9, 2010 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
LOL, thanks for the heads up
I call it how I see it. We have our own blog (www.realdirtymetsblog.com) and I am never offended when someone challenges anything I write or post. As long as that person is not calling me teen-age names and is using facts to back up the argument then put me in my place and perhaps I can learn from the discussion.
I know Eric’s work and he’s a great guy and I am sure he is not offended by my post. I just don’t understand the FIggy love and see nothing pointing to him even having a a train on the track for the #5 slot much less an inside track.
He's been really effective in his short stints the last few years
He has versatility as a long man and unlike Niese we won’t be making him FA eligible a year early by bringing him up. And unlike Misch there is some possibility that he could be a an above average 5th starter. Where as with a guy like Misch you pretty much know what you’re going to get and while it won’t be incredibly ugly it won’t be particularly pretty either.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Hmmm
I agree that Figgy could pitch from the pen and perhaps he ends up with a role as the longman/ spot starter. As for Figgy and Misch I did not see much difference in their ability last year and both can pitch from the pen. Misch is younger and out of options (also LH of course). Figgy while also out of options has been released over and over and no one ever claims him.
The thought on Niese and FA does not really bother me because I am almost 100% sure that he would be called up during the season anyway for one reason or another. Just like the last 2 years.
Keep in mind
that I’m doing my best to predict the direction the Mets are leaning on these guys. While I would almost certainly put Niese in the rotation as soon as the Mets need a fifth starter, I’m not totally convinced that the Mets will do the same. Niese has options, Figueroa doesn’t. Figueroa was pretty good down the stretch last year and they have the option of holding on to him and using him in a variety of roles.
Perhaps the most likely outcome is that Figueroa makes the Opening Day roster and Niese gets called up shortly thereafter.
Perhaps
I just don’t think there has been any sign that the Mets are even considering Figgy for the 5th starter role. All the comments and quotes have it as a two man race between Niese and Nieve with Taka coming on strong. Figgy I think they view as an option for the pen as longman.
I honestly don’t think they are concerned with losing him as every time they release him no one even gives him a shot.
One more question
Other than gut, which may be correct, what have you found that shows the Mets are leaning towards Figgy? I am not trying to be disrespectful, I just have not seen him really even mentioned in the discussion.
His performance of late, I would assume, speaks for itself.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Mar 9, 2010 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah but if Niese is called up in June
his FA eligibility gets pushed back a year, if he’s starts the season with the team it he’ll be FA eligible a year earlier.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
Not completely clear on the rules myself
He was called up last year in May though so it may not be on their minds that much.
I don't know that that's true.
Cots doesn’t have his service time correct, as time on the ML disabled list goes towards service time (they don’t have last year counted at all with him). Even if he’s up from opening day, we still have him for 6 seasons. He’d have to stay down until late August for us to gain an extra year, and I just can’t see that happening.
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
Mark/Meddler
did the math a month or so ago and came up with a year difference. If he comes up in like June I think he’ll end up a month or two short of his 6 years 6 seasons from now which would give us an extra season. Where as if he starts with the team, he’ll be right at his 6 years at the end of 6 seasons from now making him FA eligible.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
I don't remember seeing that
Do you remember if it was a FanPost or a comment? I’m having issues finding it (although I’m not sure if it was an article by itself or included in something else)
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
Comment
Niese currently has 107 days of MLB service time (per Cot’s). Lets assume once he comes up, he doesn’t go back down, and that he pitches effectively enough to keep his roster spot for his team-controlled years. That means if he earns 72 days of service time or less this year, he’ll be under team control for an extra year, since he’ll only have 179 days of total service time going into 2011, 180 days=1 year, and players can’t earn more than 180 days per year. The downside is he’ll definitely be a Super 2, even if he’s just a September callup, so he’ll get an extra year of arbitration. So for financial reasons, the ideal time to call him up is towards the end of July. If they call him up between July 24 and July 26, they can have him get two starts in before the trade deadline and delay his service time enough to get the extra year, so that’s what I’d aim for. Either way he’ll go to arbitration in 2013, but if you wait until at least July 24 to call him up, you’ll get an extra non-guaranteed arbitration year in 2016, whereas if you call him up earlier, he’ll be a Free Agent after 2015.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
Thanks.
There’s an error there though, 172 days of service time is considered a full season by MLB, meaning Niese would have to have 64 days or less of service time for that to happen. That means the earliest we could call him up and gain that extra season is August 1 (as the season ends Oct 3rd). I just don’t see that happening.
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
I don't think the days when rosters expand
count.
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
actually nevermind that's wrong
"We have a plan, and our plan, I like our plan'
it's Omar's world, we're just livin in it.
that may be beyond the mets
i’m not sure they have figured out how to game the service time system
On his property, Mr. Frazier has created a number of places to unwind — or as he said, "just chill."
by inventor frank on Mar 9, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
Not worth the delay
It looks like we need the guy in the rotation April 1. I could see a short delay for financial reasons, but not 4 months, just to have another year of arbitration. He’d be getting paid near market rate that extra year anyway.
Better off getting the extra 4 months of production.
At most Figgy will be the longman
From what I can gather, Niese is a lock for the 5th while Nieve is destined to be a late reliever. Barring injuries or a poor ST, Niese will be the 5th starter.
From what I can gather
sounds familiar somehow…
by letsgocyclones on Mar 9, 2010 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
If we're going to put guys like Figgy, Nieve, and Misch through waivers, doing it when camp breaks would be the best time.
Many teams will likely be facing roster crunches as well, and I feel they are much more likely to clear then asthey would a few weeks into the season when injuries start to add up.
Pinella: Where th f*ck was that pitch at?
Ump: Lou, don't you know that you're not supposed to end a sentence with a preposition?
Pinella: Where the f*ck was that pitch at, a$$h*le?
One of these days, Jerry Manuel's going to reveal that he's, in fact, a Xenomorph.
With a full extra set of jaws that just spews crazy shit.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
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