Hypothetically speaking if the Kazmir trade never happened and the Mets believe that they had an ace ready in 2005 (although unlikely) then they might not have signed Pedro, which could have hypothetically lead to possibly not signing Beltran, Fernando Martinez, and other Latin talent. However there are too many questions that cannot be answered because it is hard to tell Pedro's impact on the market so instead I'm going to assume the Mets still signed Pedro and Beltran. I am also assuming the Kris Benson trade/resigning still occurred.Another area that is nearly impossible to predict is how the change in performance would have changed drat picks so I'm assuming they stayed the same. Another assumption is that all players performed exactly the same because that is impossible to quantify. This is also assuming that other than trades actually made in real life, none happened otherwise because it is impossible to tell how other GM's valued players.
I was watching tonight's game when I saw Scott Kazmir's line scroll along the bottom of the screen and wondered what it would be like if the Mets kept Kazmir, Omar was still hired at the same point, and the Mets didn't feel the need to trade for Johan. I also would like to point out that this is me purely thinking, obviously no one knows what actually would have happened.
So with Kazmir, Glavine, and Pedro all pitching like relative aces the Mets would have likely won at least a few more games in 2005. None of the offseason moves were about SP so I'm going to assume that they still would have done everything else. In 2006 with Kazmir in the rotation there is an improved chance that the Mets would have gone to and won the WS. This would leave me to believe that the Mets were confident in Kazmir enough to not resign El Duque but would have resigned Glavine because of Pedro's injruy. There is also the possibility that the Mets felt confident enough in Kazmir that Omar wouldn't have traded Owens and Lindstrom for Vargas/Bostik. This would have also lead me to believe that Mota would not have been resigned because of Lindstrom. Would that have saved the Mets from the collapse? Maybe. Maybe not. There is also the strong possibility that the trade goes through anyway. Kazmir's upgrade over El Duque ould have also spared us from the collapse and given us a possible repeat of WS champs.
It's hard to say how the next offseason would have been different except for SP and one big acquisition comes to mind in Johan Santana. The Mets would have had Gomez to fill in for the injured Alou which would have meant we might not have witnessed the awesomeness of Murphy or Tatis' 2008 season depending on who didn't get called up. Who knows if the possible improved bullpen with Lindstrom and defense in LF with Gomez would have prevented the lesser collapse of 2008? In all likelihood, no. But with a possible1 or 2 WS championships under the Mets belts in '06 and '07, it would be a fairly large collapse but the pain might not have been terrible with the previous success. Also there is a good chance Willie Randolph wouldn't have been fired but we'll have to disregard coaching/managing effects on the players' performances as well.
The 2009 offseason would be the hardest to predict in my opinion thus. One reason is because of the uncertainty of how the team perceived Lindstrom. If he was viewed to be the closer then K-Rod wouldn't have been signed. That would have also made the 2009 injury woes worse because of Lindstrom/Kazmir injuries. Lets assume that K-Rod was signed and everything else in the offseason remained the same. 2009 would have been largely unaffected in terms of production most likely with the differences in Kazmir/Lindstrom/Gomez/Humber/Mulvey not being much of an upgrade over what the Mets got. This most recent offseason would have likely been altered depending on how the Mets viewed LF and the rotation. Would they have felt confident in Gomez/Martinez in LF to not sign Bay? Would this have led to signing/trading for a 1B with Murphy's breakout 2008 possibly never happening? Seeing as Kazmir is a bigger question mark than Johan, would they have made a bigger attempt to sign/trade for a SP? There's also the possiblility that the offseason remained the same.
This leads to me to ask: Would I have preferred this alternate scenario where the Mets win a possible2 WS,still have one of my former-future-favorite Met (Gomez), have another promising SP in Guerrera but have a collapse in 2008, have an even more questionable rotation for this year, and never have two of my favorite players (Tatis/Santana)? I have to say that if we do win even one WS I would definitely take the Kazmir trade back