How to Talk to Non-Stathead Mets Fans about the Cuts

I understand but do not agree with the Mets reasoning on Jacobs and GMJ – they want to kick the tires on some guys they think might get hot. Carter deserved to make the roster over Jacobs, and GMJ shouldn’t be here in the first place, but I think thats what they’re thinking.

Calero looked nowhere near ready to pitch in a major league game. I can understand not taking him, but if this nonsense about giving him an option not to go to AAA is true, then that’s a problem.

Figueroa I really don’t care for, but it makes no sense to take Green over him given how bad Green has been and the fact that he has an option. I don’t see any rational thought progression here. It seems to me that the only money they save would be whatever they’d have to give to Fig, which is what? Half a mil? Less? Meanwhile, they start Tejada and Mejia on the clock, which in the long run costs more than what they could have given to Figueroa.

is why Minaya and Manuel won’t be fired. The Wilpons won’t pay another GM and Manger while paying the rest of Minaya’s and Manuel’s contract.

Takahashi looks like a pretty good bet for an ERA no higher than about 4.30. Figgy has never been a safe bet for anything better than about 4.50. I think Takahashi has better stuff, has had the better career, and has had the better spring.

That said, they still should have kept Figgy, he just wasn’t one of the top 5 options for the rotation. But I’d still rather see him there than Ollie. And, he’d be perfect for long man if Takahashi were moved to the rotation.

Jacobs, Green, Catalanotto, and Matthews making the squad are the ones that really bother me.

If the Mets were fielding a competitive roster, I could maybe live with carrying Tejada and Mejia for awhile if that’s what it takes to get the best team on the field. But add the above four to guys like Perez, Igarashi, Cora, Barajas, Blanco, and Nieve, guys who aren’t good but you knew they might have to carry, and suddenly you are looking at 10 players who should be close to replacement level. Add Tatis, Castillo, and Francoeur as guys who are barely above replacement level, but still well below average. And even if Tejada and Mejia perform admirably, given their young ages, they are likely to still be below average as well. That’s 15 players out of 25 on the roster that could hardly be expected to perform as regulars of any type. You’ll be lucky to get 6 WAR total from that group of 15.

There is just no reason to add guys like Tejada and Mejia to a team this bad unless you believe it will be good for their development. This team is not competitive.

Of the better players, Niese, Pelfrey, Maine, Takahashi, and Pagan have the talent to be average, but not much more. And Fernando Rodriguez could be a well above average closer, and Feliciano a good lefty reliever, but as relievers they aren’t going to be worth more than an average player either. Optimistically, you could hope to get 12 WAR total from this group of 7.

So the Mets are really asking 3 players to carry this team right now: Santana, Wright, and Bay. Without those three, this roster projects to about 66 wins tops. If you got 4 wins from each of those guys, you might get to 78 wins.

Now, I realize Reyes and Beltran are expected back before too long, but until they are back, I think the best you can hope is for this team to play near .500 ball, which is about what they did this spring. But add 5 wins a piece from those two, and a 78 win team is suddenly an 88 win team, about what the Mets were in 2007 & 2008. That’s a team that can compete.

So how long will the Mets be without Reyes and Beltran? My fear is that Beltran is not going to be back as soon as advertised. If the Mets know this, and know they can’t compete this year, they would have an additional reason to promote young players like Mejia: to help sell tickets. If you can’t sell a competitive team this year, then you need to get fans excited about the future. Mejia will have his innings limited anyway this year, so he doesn’t need to start all year. My guess is this is a marketing move.