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Are The Mets Going To Pull A Tim Tebow In The Draft?

The brightside of having a terrible season, like the Mets did in 2009, is that you get to pick high in the draft. In this coming draft, the Mets will select 7th, the highest they've picked since taking Philip Humber 3rd overall in 2004, and much higher than last year's first pick, 72nd overall. 

Today at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein took a crack at predicting who might take whom in the top 10. His comment for the Mets was...interesting:

Multiple sources indicated that the Mets will "go off the board," or "pull a surprise" at No. 7. While one of the remaining college arms might be the more obvious choice, three sources indicated a connection between the Mets and Cal State Fullerton shortstop Christian Colon. While this draft is filled with players generating highly divergent scouting reports, maybe nobody has brought more wide-ranging opinions than Colon.

I mention Tim Tebow, tongue-in-cheek, but Colon figures to be equally divisive, if the pick does happen. Goldstein goes on to quote divergent scouting reports; one scout praised his power and fundies, another called him fat and compared him to Ronnie Belliard. For Cal State-Fullerton this season, Colon has a 1.047 OPS with 12 HR in 38 games. He's also 8-11 in stolen base attempts. You can view his earlier stats on baseball cube.

So are the Mets trying to find a creative way to remain needlessly cheap in the draft, despite having a very high pick? Or do they think Colon is an offense-first shortstop of the Gordon Beckham mold, someone they can slot into second base within a year? To add to the ridiculous Tebow comparison, and maybe explain the Mets' infatuation, it's worth noting he was the first player to ever wear the captain's "C" on a Team USA jersey, while playing for the Collegiate National Team. 

Here's some high-quality video of his swing and fielding mechanics:

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Comments

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I'll be honest...I am not impressed.

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Apr 30, 2010 12:52 AM EDT reply actions  

I'll be honest, that's the same reaction I had after the selections of Ike Davis, Reese Havens, and Brad Holt

I was quite disappointed after that draft, but clearly have quite a different opinion now.

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on Apr 30, 2010 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Really?

Why was that? At the time, I was pretty enthused about Havens and Holt and ambivalent/apprehensive toward Davis.

by Sam Page on Apr 30, 2010 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was enthused about Havens and Holt

but wanted Friedrich over Davis. I didn’t like taking all college players with the top 3 picks.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Apr 30, 2010 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was more upset about Havens than any of them.

He really didn’t have enough speed or arm to be considered toolsy, his power was ok but nothing special, and his defensive future appeared to be at a position other than SS. Davis wasn’t my favorite pick largely because he was projected as a first baseman, and I really thought there were other ways they could have used that pick. In retrospect I’m pretty happy with all three, but they aren’t the type of exciting potential superstars that get me excited on draft day (like Vernon Gholston…ugh).

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on Apr 30, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really I was most excited about Havens

he was supposed to be a quick moving second basemen, and he likely would have been if not for injuries, and there were reports about him possibly being able to move to catcher. I just thought that with 3 first round picks it would have made more sense to use at least one on a high upside prep arm/bat rather than going with 3 college players.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Apr 30, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I kind of like the approach of getting alot of high risk/reward type guys as IFA's and late rounders

and drafting guys that are safer bets to be solid regulars with our higher draft picks. With the financial resources we have available, I really think that type of approach would allow a decent GM to utilize free agency to build a very good team. For whatever reason, I just didn’t think Havens was going to pan out and didn’t really love the pick. I’ve certainly grown to like him more, but I really think Ruben Tejada is going to be a better pro long term than Havens.

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on Apr 30, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really?

I don’t think Tejada has much of a chance of being an everyday player. His bat for the most part seems like it’s not going to play anywhere else but short and at this point it doesn’t seem like his defense will be so off the charts it will make up for his below average bat at 2nd. On top of that by most reports despite being somewhat toolsey he doesn’t really have the elite speed to make him the base stealing threat that Reyes is. I’m not convinced he won’t be more than an above average bench player, or an around average starter.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Apr 30, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Around average starter is about what I expect I guess

I really think he will eventually develop enough power that his bat will play, I think too many of us keep forgetting that he just turned 20. Maybe I’m being too optimistic with my outlook for him, but I really like his approach at the plate and think he’ll be a very solid 2nd baseman in the bigs.

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on Apr 30, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also I normally agree about avoiding high risk early

but to me when you have 3 high picks it makes sense to use one on a more high risk high reward player. Rather than using all 3 on college players with more limited upside.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Apr 30, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Most of the time yes, but we really didn't have much of a farm system at that point.

In that case I think Omar really needed to bring in a few guys that could be upper level depth fairly soon. I’d also argue that Holt was that sort of high upside pick, not really the safe sort. That said, I’d have been very happy with Friedrich, Holt, and either Davis or Havens (preferably Davis), so I really can’t complain too much at this point.

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on Apr 30, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll be honest

I liked Davis and Havens, from what I knew (which wasn’t much). I don’t remember caring one way or the other about Holt, other than being disappointed that his first name wasn’t Steve.

Perhaps today IS a good day to die.
- Klingon proverb

by Thomas Wachtel on Apr 30, 2010 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well you really can't tell much from these videos

But I was watching some video of him a little bit earlier and I was generally unimpressed. He seems to have a solid arm at short but he looks to have average speed at best (I don’t know what a 30 runner looks like, but I assumed it would look much slower than Colon appears). One of the videos I was watching was from MLB.com and the guy narrating kept saying how Colon is a guy who plays above his tools, with the 7th pick, I’d rather someone who already has plus tools. If we have to take a position player, I’d much prefer Nick Castallanos, Zack Cox or Manny Machado.

I still think pitching should probably be the way to go and Karsten Whitson (who Seiler has going to us in his latest mock draft) looks like he’d be the best pick. In some video he looks to have a weird motion, in others it looks really smooth (I’m obviously not a scout). But he’s only 18, tops out at 96 and has solid control of his Fastball, Slider and Change and has a big projectable frame. I don’t really know enough to really back any pick up, but Whitson would be my pick right now after Harper, Taillon and Castallanos.

by Evan_S on Apr 30, 2010 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

I could be alone

but I really don’t like the idea of using our first pick on a pitcher, especially a prep pitcher. I’m just always convinced pitchers arms are going to fall off. And I feel like there’s a lot more things for us to screw up with a pitcher.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Apr 30, 2010 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Unless there's an overwhelming talent ...

I think you have to stockpile great power arms, when you can. I’m sure you wouldn’t tell me that if a Steven Strassburg-like pitcher fell to no. 7 that you would also pass him up?

"Never throw a slider to The Glider."

- Ed Charles, No. 5

by The Glider on Apr 30, 2010 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah but strasburg wasn't a prep pitcher

im all for stock piling arms, just not with the 7th overall pick. I’d rather stockpile them through IFA or later rounds.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Apr 30, 2010 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Strasburg-like is an oxymoron though. There are no pitchers like him.

I kind of agree with Gina, here, although it all depends on the individual.

by Sam Page on Apr 30, 2010 3:55 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

agreed

Strasburg is a once or twice a decade type talent (Prior is really the only other comparison for him in the past 10 years). If you have that, you take it.

The other scenario for taking a pitcher is if a guy like Kazmir (who was probably the top pitching prospect) falls to you in the middle of the first round. Other than that, though, I prefer taking position players early, and stockpiling over-slot power arm type guys or solid with unspectacular arms college guys later and through IFA.

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Apr 30, 2010 8:01 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I get that

But just browsing some of the boards, it looks like if you’re going to take a pitcher, all the best ones are in high school. A quick search didn’t find any decent video on Ranaudo, Pomeranz looks like he should be pretty good, but not ridiculous upside, and I want no part of LHP Chris Sale and his 3/4 arm slot. Taillon is a freak who throws 99 MPH, but him falling is wishful thinking. I do really like Castallano, he would be my first (third) choice even if he plays the same position as Wright. He has a nice, fast swing and is supposed to have plus power.

by Evan_S on Apr 30, 2010 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

agreed

this is a draft heavy in high upside prep pitchers and to shy away from them because we’re afraid of the risk associated would be inefficient IMOl.

and as much as i agree about the insane amount of risk w/ these type guys, how else does anyone envision our rotation getting an impact, top of the rotation arm anytime soon? free agency is probably even more unattractive due to the risk attached to the exorbitant price tags, plus its looking bleaker and bleaker w/ webb and lee both hurt and halladay and beckett locked up, mejia is more of a question mark to join the rotation now than ever before, holt/allen/carson/famila have all flashed dominance but it would take a lot of luck for any of those 4 to become a stud. basically, we’re going to have a lot of middle and back of the rotation guys available to us but not a lot of premium pitching talent and this is THE way to get it, despite the risk.

i could live w/ getting burned by a risky high upside pitcher, but not w/ playing it safe and ending up w/ another kevin mulvey.

by Rob Castellano on Apr 30, 2010 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

one other problem with taking a power arm pitcher

in a year or two, he’ll be our mop-up reliever, allowing us to promote Mejia to the 6th inning role

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Apr 30, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not saying to shy away from them the whole draft

just to not take one with the 7th overall pick. When you only have one pick in the first two rounds IMO you should try and minimize risk with the first one and stockpile high upside later.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Apr 30, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

i guess it's about your personal philosophy

i’d rather stockpile the middle to back of the rotation guys later and take a shot at an ace early when the top tier talent is there. of course there are stories of stud pitchers found in the later rounds but they’re so few and far between that i’d never expect this regime to uncover one.

by Rob Castellano on Apr 30, 2010 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

There's two pitchers right now who I really like

Chris Sale and Matt Harvey both have GB% above 70%, don’t walk many, and have some secondary offerings that could be real plusses. Both are college kids, so I like the lower risk factor than with guys like Whitson and Cole. I’d be pretty happy if either of those guys ends up here, but other than that I’d be after Zach Cox or Yasmani Grandel

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on Apr 30, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not crazy taking another SS with this pick

We have Jose. We also have Flores who is projected highly. Now, to me, this kid Colon doesn’t look this he’s going to stay a SS … it hard to tell just off these videos, of course. He looks kind of big. I’d have to see more, I guess.

All things being equal (which they never are), I’d go with the most highly rated out of these positions: a pitcher, catcher or outfielder.

"Never throw a slider to The Glider."

- Ed Charles, No. 5

by The Glider on Apr 30, 2010 1:40 AM EDT reply actions  

Flores isn’t going to stay at short. He is destined for the OF or 3B.

by Coolpapabell on Apr 30, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

and I agree, you have to go BPA in the draft. If you want to stock pile arms, it seems like the drafting over slot in the later rounds is the way to go.

by Coolpapabell on Apr 30, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't see how you can target anything other than the BPA.

If a guy can handle SS, he can certainly be moved elsewhere. The most important thing is to just add good baseball players to the system.

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on Apr 30, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not crazy ABOUT ...

"Never throw a slider to The Glider."

- Ed Charles, No. 5

by The Glider on Apr 30, 2010 1:41 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm sure this has no chance of happening but can you guys imagine if they drafted this dude

so they could let Reyes walk? Would it officially be time to burn down the city?

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Apr 30, 2010 2:48 AM EDT reply actions  

I am thinking this guy

might join the long line of future replacements for Luis Castillo. Havens hasn’t really showed he can stay healthy.

by Coolpapabell on Apr 30, 2010 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

I've got my first draft preview in the pipeline for Monday

But I will offer a quick couple thoughts here:

1. The position a guy plays should be fairly irrelevant, no matter who you are, and this is especially true of a shortstop. Shortstops can be moved almost anywhere on the diamond, and, considering development times

2. Christian Colon certainly wouldn’t be a terrible choice at #7, and I’ve been saying for weeks that I think he’s going to surge up prospect lists just before the draft.

3. Sam’s comparison to Gordon Beckham is really spot-on, and it’s who I compared Colon to in my profile. Both guys have/had iffy track records before their junior seasons. Beckham really wasn’t a very good hitter at Georgia until that incredible season. Colon’s similar in that regard. While both could play short at the major league level, many scouts believe(d) neither will stay there for the long haul, chiefly due to iffy footspeed. Neither guy impresses you with his tools, but there’s nothing they don’t do a little well, and people rave about their work ethics.

Now, he’s not a perfect comp. I liked Beckham’s power more at Georgia, but Colon makes up for that somewhat with better contact ability, and the framework for power in the swing is there, so I don’t think Colon’s purely a fluke. And I think Colon’s a little better as a fielder (better instincts, mostly).

by Alex Nelson on Apr 30, 2010 8:08 AM EDT reply actions  

Drat

Point 1 should read: “The position a guy plays should be fairly irrelevant, no matter who you are, and this is especially true of a shortstop. Shortstops can be moved almost anywhere on the diamond, and, considering development times, you can’t always see where your team will be positioned in the future. Even when you’re loaded at one position, you should always take the best player on your board.”

by Alex Nelson on Apr 30, 2010 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Colon's actually put up much better numbers than Beckham did

though I’m not really sure how to adjust for the level of competition ECU plays vs. Georgia. I mean, I know the SEC is awesome at baseball, but unlike in football pretty much all those good warm-weather schools play good schedules, so ECU might be just as good as Georgia. I don’t follow college baseball enough to know.

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Apr 30, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great fing pick up!

I read Toby Hydes write up of Goldsteins article, and thought of fan shooting it. way be on top of things.

by Coolpapabell on Apr 30, 2010 10:12 AM EDT reply actions  

Looking around several mock drafts, listing our 7th pick and Colon report when available. If you know certain source is (not) credible, just post it away.

http://stealinghome.typepad.com/stealing_home_a_baseball_/2010/01/morisatos-2010-mlb-mock-draft-version-10.html

3rd Overall – The Baltimore Orioles Christian Colon (SS), Cal State Fullerton Possibly the best college positional players, Colon had an excellent season for the Titans, hitting .357/.438/.529 with 8 homers in 62 games. Colon doesn’t have standout tools but he’s a solid hitter with a good eye and plate discipline. He should draw more than his share of walks and he makes solid contact with the ball. He has average power and speed for the position. Colon is a fundamentally sound fielder with solid instincts and range. There is still some concern that he will probably be a second baseman in the end, but he has the toolset to stay at short. Overall, Colon will probably go third to the Orioles, who could use a shortstop of the future, or a potential successor from Brian Roberts at second. Either way, he would join a promising young core for the O’s. In the event they choose to go with the best overall talent, James Taillon would also go here.

http://baseballdraftreport.com/2010/01/11/2010-mlb-mock-draft/

1.11 Toronto Blue Jays: SS Christian Colon – Cal State Fullerton (…) also being less than impressed when seemingly every scouting report about Colon begins and ends with talk about his personality, leadership, and the way he makes the most of his average at best tools. No doubt Colon’s makeup is totally off the charts and his defensive chops make him a slam dunk to stick at short professionally, but I tend to focus more on the "average at best tools" part of that discussion than the "personality" and "leadership." (…) I have a scouting buddy who has seen Colon play a ton from his junior year of high school until this past summer and he absolutely loves everything about Colon’s game. (…) Brown’s gigantic edge in speed and added pop might just make up for Colon’s clear advantage in both overall defense upside and contact skills, but your mileage might vary.

http://www.mlbbonusbaby.com/2010/4/27/1446476/mock-draft-5-first-round

7. 11. Toronto Blue Jays – Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton – Colon is rounding back into form, and it’s no coincidence that his team is too. Colon’s a plus makeup player with solid tools and above-average power projection for the middle infield, and I think he’ll make a solid shortstop at the next level. The Blue Jays have a lot of extra picks, so if Boras is holding out for Grant Green money for Colon, this isn’t a fit at all. Previously: #14.

http://www.baseballrumormill.com/players/christian-colon/

Scouting Report: Colon is a spray hitter, with ability to make consistent contact and hit to all fields. He doesn’t have much power, though he has shown the ability to hit the gaps on occasion. His pure speed grades out as average or a tick below. Colon makes the most of what speed he does have with good base-running instincts. He has an above-average arm at shortstop. Colon is a very sure-handed and reliable middle infielder. There are other shortstops with better range, but Colon makes all the plays. Colon earns the compliment of being termed a real “baseball player” because of his fine instincts on the field. His bat and lack of projection. Colon is solid in all aspects of the game, but doesn’t have a tool that truly stands out.

In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.

by Michkin on Apr 30, 2010 10:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Good material, Thanks!

I have to say, those scouting reports aren’t very enthusiastic. I would take him,ceteris paribus, if he thought he could grow into some power.

by Coolpapabell on Apr 30, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yea, it doesn't look like he is an hype-exciting prospect with that one tool that make fans dream of his upside. This might lower his bonus demand (or maybe not).

He looks average across the board, based on the limited info we have of him.
Good: eye, plate discipline, contact skills, spray hitting, power (for a MI), makeup, sure handedness, arm.
Bad: speed, range, not a SS, limited upside.

In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.

by Michkin on Apr 30, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting that Boras is his agent

That indicates that if they do take him, it’s not because they want to be cheap. I would imagine that Boras clients don’t sign for slot.

by Mount17 on Apr 30, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Some do, some don't.

He seems to be pretty good at assesing which of his guys he can be aggressive with.

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on Apr 30, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

What pitch do you think that was

that Colon grounded out on? My bet it is on the change-up.

by Coolpapabell on Apr 30, 2010 10:45 AM EDT reply actions  

I've seen KLaw and a few others mention

that Machado (consensus best player non-Harper division) could fall to the Mets at 7.

If he does end up falling and the Mets take someone else in order to be cheap then everyone needs to be fired immediately.

That’s all I have to say.

by mcsoxerhoff on Apr 30, 2010 10:56 AM EDT reply actions  

They better not waste their first round pick, check out the link in this fanshot

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/4/30/1452148/the-value-of-first-round-draft

It shows how important the first round picks are. The WAR graph is extremely telling.

Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.

by Bobby Baseball on Apr 30, 2010 11:43 AM EDT reply actions  

I like Colon

At the moment I might not take him at #7, but he’s been jumping back and forth in the 8-12 range, and lately moving up as he continues to hit. He was coming off a broken foot, and didn’t get any practice with his team before the season started, which impacted his early numbers a bit and caused him maybe to slide in some mocks. But BA had him ranked pretty highly coming into the season, ranking him ahead of Pomeranz, Brentz, Choice, Grandal, etc. on Team USA in the summer.

It does appear that there’s a decent chance Whitson or Machado will be there at #7, though. For the moment, I would prefer one of those two if that happens, and Dylan Covey as well who it seems will also be there.

That said, I like Colon better than a lot of the others who have been mentioned, including all of the college arms (aside from Pomeranz), and other college bats. Zach Cox for instance seems to have even less tools, and about the same bat, and I can’t see taking him unless you are both convinced he can play 2B at the pro level, and convinced he really has more power than Colon; I’m convinced of neither yet.

Colon to me seems to be sort of a shorter, slower Derek Jeter. The shorter/slower part is what will lead to doubts about taking him at #7. But a guy who can definitely play a middle infield spot doesn’t need superstar tools to be a very valuable player. Ask Dustin Pedroia. And It’s not that his tools are that lacking, they are still mostly above average; Tim Beckham might be a good example of a guy with fairly similar tools.

While Colon does have a pretty long track record at this point, I do think his slow start means that what he does over the next month will be important. If he continues to hit like he has over the last month before the draft, I will probably end up liking this pick quite a bit. I just need to see a bit more of it now to be convinced the offensive upside is really that high. Due to average range, the defensive upside is solid, no more, despite great hands and instincts. I still need to be a bit more sure the bat speed and power will really play in MLB.

by acerimusdux on Apr 30, 2010 4:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Do you mean Gordon Beckham?

I think Tim Beckham was all tools.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Apr 30, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know the scouting reports and mock drafts show really different results (besides the #1), but is there any sort of consensus on who are the top 10 based only on "best available player"?

That is, ignoring completely bonus demands, Boras client or not, commitments, team drafting history/preferences, team needs, and everything else.

In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.

by Michkin on Apr 30, 2010 5:12 PM EDT reply actions  

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This Week in Mets' Overreaction

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THE BIG GUY

Aa_avatar_small Eric Simon

THE INCREDIBLES

Blackfish2_small Alex Nelson

Endy_small Rob Castellano

Img_1262_small Matthew Artus

Kanye_pekka_small Sam Page

Best_infield_ever_small James Kannengieser

Metsstitches_small Eno Sarris

48900_1085732804_4466_n_small Chris McShane

Lg_rocker_ap_small Matthew Callan

Billy_and_daddy_4th_of_july_small Bill Petti

THE NEWS GURUS

Mrmet_small Steve Schreiber

3_small Stephen Schmidt

159714144_040c6c1501_small Pack Bringley

124967042_crop_340x234_small Jeffrey Paternostro