Series Preview: Mets vs. Phillies, 4/30-5/2

Here we are, at April's end, and the Mets are triumphantly marching into enemy territory in first place. Separated by half-a-win in the standings, the Mets and Phillies are about to play a series about as important as it could possibly in April. Yes, I am aware the Mets have probably been pretty lucky in their recent winning ways, but a certain amount of luck is inevitable in every season, having it swing your way can only be good. That is not to say I expect the pitchers to maintain a 80% strand rate. Nor do I, however, expect the offense to maintain a .695 OPS or the pitchers a 4.88 BB/9. The sample size being small, the numbers are all-around too confounding to make any real conclusions as to whether the Mets are "for real" or not.

Ultimately, despite not playing their best baseball, the Mets came out of April with a winning record. If they start playing better going forward, having this good April-record will only help their chances. And they can play better, this team is talented, and much better than the one that broke camp. The way I see it, the Mets gave Mike Jacobs and Gary Matthews significant playing time and came out on the good side of .500. They've got a new lease on life. Jose Reyes, Ike Davis, Angel Pagan and the real Mets will take it from here.

Besides, as the overplayed adage goes, "Pennants aren't won in April, but they can be lost." According to Baseball Prospectus, the Mets have a 36% chance of making the playoffs, the Phils 24%. It certainly isn't the time to start scoreboard watching, but these games do count. If the Mets sweep this series, they're in first place and four wins ahead of the Phillies. And looking at these pitching match-ups, I am thinking sweep.

The Tale Of The Tape

One reason for optimism is the Mets running the bases extremely well and playing the field above expectation, two areas in which hustle and fundies can compensate especially well for talent. Without even considering UZR, which we probably shouldn't at the current sample size, the Mets are fielding pretty well. Jason Bay and Jeff Francoeur, notably, are playing to their strengths and not embarrassing themselves out there. Those two were probably the least certain quantities in the field, entering this season, and their continued diligence, or lack thereof, will have serious implications on a still predominantly flyball pitching-staff.

Speaking of UZR sample size, Ruben Tejada still leads the Mets in UZR with +1.7, despite just playing 18 innings during the first week of the season. The guy whose seat he was warming, Jose Reyes, is the UZR trailer. He does seem a little tentative out there, but as Keith has been quick to note on certain plays, he's still regaining his leg strength. It's definitely too early to read into individual UZR numbers.

The Lineups

Like I always say, "If it ain't broke and it doesn't feature Gary Matthews Jr., don't fix it."

1. Angel Pagan-CF
2. Luis Castillo-"2B"
3. Jose Reyes-SS
4. Jason Bay-LF
5. David Wright-3B
6. Ike Davis-1B
7. Jeff Francoeur-RF
8. Rod Barajas-C

Charlie Manuel still bats his two of his best, same-handed hitters in a row. There's nothing quite as grating as consistently losing the division to a team with management as poor as ours.

1. Shane Victorino-CF
2. Placido Polanco-3B
3. Chase Utley-2B
4. Ryan Howard-1B
5. Jayson Werth-RF
6. Raul Ibanez-"LF"
7. Juan Castro-SS
8. Carlos Ruiz-C

Who is Juan Castro?

Good question. You may remember him from the belly-aching some Phillies fans did over his signing this winter, only to assure themselves, "Jimmy Rollins will never get hurt!" He's a sub-replacement sub-Alex Cora, somewhat-competent fielder who can't hit at all and makes Angel Berroa look employable. Basically, the kind of guy the Mets would sign and end up playing at short in 2009 or second in 2008. So far the Phillies have been lucky, getting a mammoth .292 OBP out of the career .231 hitter.

Bombs Away

After seeing several triples and 410-foot sac-flies during that homestand, I think Frenchy, Bay and Wright will appreciate getting out of Citi Field and into the extremely-homerun friendly Citizen's Bank Park. Players with Jason Bay's power can be very streaky, so let's hope his first homer marks the first of many:

The Pitching Matchups

Jon Niese vs. Kyle Kendrick

Jon Niese has thrown his 12-6 sparingly so far this season, and if there were ever a time to bring it back, here it is. Against a lineup featuring Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez, a steady diet of two-seam fastballs is not taking advantage of one's platoon advantage.

Kyle Kendrick strikes out no one, walks too many batters, gives up plenty of homers and is completely hittable. Stop me when I describe the redeeming quality keeping him in the major leagues. A strong spring not withstanding, Kyle Kendrick is a truly bad pitcher. When Kendrick succeeds, he hits his spots and mixes his secondary pitches well, using his two-seamer to induce groundballs. You know, the stuff every pitcher does when he pitches well; Kendrick just has the added handicap of being bad. It would be disappointing to lose to a guy with a 1:3:3 HR:BB:K ratio.

Key matchup: My favorite platoon split on Baseball-Reference is the somewhat arbitrarily determined Power/Finesse split, which calculates how a hitter performs against power pitchers, tops among the league in K+BB, finesse pitchers, at the bottom of that list, and everyone in between.  Some players on the Mets demonstrate a slight split favoring finesse pitchers, like Bay and Wright, most have no split, and then there's Jeff Francoeur, who owns a .854 OPS vs. finesse pitchers, .664 OPS vs. power pitchers, and a .693 OPS against everyone in between. Go figure, he is 8-20 career against Kendrick.

Mike Pelfrey vs. Roy Halladay

Being right-handed and playing in CBP, Pelf is probably best-suited going with the opposite game-plan I laid out for Niese. To keep the ball in the park, Pelfrey needs to pound the bottom of the zone with two-seam fastballs and use his split-fingered changeup liberally against Philadelphia's tough lefties. He's yet to surrender a homerun this year and that's going to change. Throwing a bunch of flat curveballs to Raul Ibanez and Ryan Howard is a great way to make that change in a hurry.

Roy Halladay has a 11 K/BB ratio so far. Not 1.1...11. An opposing team finally got to him, and it being the notoriously weak-hitting Giants can only bring hope.

Key matchup: Jason Bay. In limited appearances against Halladay, Bay already has 2 homeruns. He's hit cutters pretty well in his career, and no one throws a better one than Halladay. I have a feeling Daniel Murphy would also be a tough matchup against Halladay, having the platoon split and brief success against similar arsenals last year.

Johan Santana vs. Jamie Moyer

Johan continues to see his velocity drop and his FB% go up, too worrisome developments to be carrying out of Citi Field. There's no point worrying about Santana vs. Moyer, but in terms of opposing lineup and ballpark, this matchup isn't ideal for the Mets' ace.

There's not much to say about Jamie Moyer, other than he's still here and still doing the same stuff to be effective. He throws a fastball at the speed most pitchers throw their changeup and mixes in a cutter, curveball, and changeup to keep opponents honest. The key matchup here is David Wright, who is hitting .400-something with a ton of homers in his career against Moyer.

The Phillies Win The Series If...

They go deep on Mets' pitching early and often. Mike Pelfrey, Francisco Rodriguez, Fernando Nieve, Hisanori Takahashi, Jenrry Mejia, Pedro Feliciano, among others have all not allowed a homerun this season. Keeping the ball in the park is a big reason for the Mets' uncharacteristically good pitching of late and it's easier to do in Citi Field than Citizen's Bank Park. A quick way to take yourself out of a game is walk batters at the Mets' current rate and then let them score via longball.

The Mets Win The Series If...

They dispatch Kendrick quickly in game one, getting to the Phillies bullpen early. Current closer Ryan Madson went on the 15-day DL today for breaking his toe kicking water coolers after blowing saves. That coincides nicely with Brad Lidge coming off the DL from elbow surgery yesterday. Knowing Charlie Manuel's infatuation with Lidge, the Mets could force the rehabbing-closer into a save or other high-leverage situation before he's at full-speed.