The Perfect (Yet Realistic) Baseball Lineup
I was reading all of the stuff on this fine website we have here about how our Opening Day Lineup sucks, how it is absolutely terrible and how it is one of the worst Opening Day lineups of all time. I was thinking about the Yankees and Red Sox and how they have uber amazing lineups that nobody can possibly compete with, unless you have a humongous payroll. I was thinking about how we do have a humongous payroll, yet we still don't have an uber amazing lineup like the Yankees or Red Sox. Why don't we have a great lineup like them? It is because the Mets front office does not know how to effectively use the money given to them by the ownership. However, it isn't necessary to spend $60 million on three hitters like the Yankees did with Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Mark Teixiera to have a great lineup. All the front office needs to do to have a great lineup is to understand the roles and importances of each spot in the order, and to be smart about filling those spots.
Starting Lineup
1. The number one hitter, also known as the leadoff hitter, is very important to a team's offense. This is the player that will start off the game for the team, the player that will have the most at-bats during the game and the player that will precede all other hitters in the order. His job is to get on base, by way of hits, walks, or anything else necessary. This should be a player who has speed to burn, so that he can get infield hits, steal bases, and cause havoc on the basepaths. He should also have enough power to leg out a double or a triple, so that he can get into scoring position. It also helps if his teammates like him, because that might help create a spark in the team's vibe.
Ideal number one hitter: Jose Reyes
The poor man's choice: Nyjer Morgan
2. The number two hitter is ideally a second leadoff man. You want the same skills in the number two hitter as you do in the number one hitter. However, if he was good enough to hit number one, he would be hitting number one on a realistic team, so it is safe to say that the number two hitter's skills are slightly less apparent than the number one hitter's skills. The second hitter should have speed and the ability to get on base, so that he can set the tables for the power hitters. He should also have a good eye, so that he can give the leadoff man a chance to steal a base, and the ability to bunt, so that the team can play small ball if they so choose. The number two hitter should have good bat control, and shouldn't strike out a lot.
Ideal number two hitter: Derek Jeter
The poor man's choice: Ryan Theriot
3. The number three hitter is often considered the best all-around athlete on the team. Ideally, you want this guy to have the ability to get on base so that the middle of the order can knock him in. You also want him to have some power, so he can drive in the first two guys, and also to get into scoring position himself. He should have speed and good baserunning skills. In a nutshell, the number three hitter should be the overall best hitter.
Ideal number three hitter: Hanley Ramirez
The poor man's choice: B.J. Upton
4. The number four hitter is also called the clean up hitter because he is supposed to clean up the bases. He does this by hitting home runs, and lots of them. Not just a lot of home runs, he is supposed to hit a CRAPLOAD of them. He should also have a decent ability to hit for a decent average, so at least if he doubles often it will still drive guys in. This should be your absolute strongest hitter who will hit the most home runs. It doesn't matter if he is slow as long as he can mash.
Ideal number four hitter: Prince Fielder
The poor man's choice: Jack Cust
5. The number five hitter should have all the tools of the number three hitter. He should be able to hit for power and average, and have speed. He should be your second best overall hitter. He should be a bit of a better average hitter than the number three guy simply because by hitting five there are more people on base to knock in then by hitting three. You want him to have good speed so he can set the tables for the bottom of the order but he doesn't have to be a speed demon, otherwise he should be hitting first or third.
Ideal number five hitter: Albert Pujols
The poor man's choice: Justin Upton
6. The number six hitter should have a high batting average and the ability to get lots of hits. He should have some power but it is not completely necessary to be a 20 home run guy at this spot. He needs to get lots of hits because he will have lots of players on base who he needs to knock in. He also needs to get on base to give opportunities for the seven and eight hitters to knock him in before the pitcher comes and kills the rally.
Ideal number six hitter: Joe Mauer
The poor man's choice: Scott Rolen
7. The number seven hitter should be just like your number six hitter, only with a little more power. He needs to be able to get hits to knock in guys ahead of him, but he should also have an extra power reserve. This is because the eight hitter and the pitcher are likely to be very weak hitters and therefore may not be able to be reliable in knocking runners in. You want the seven hitter to be able to hit around 20 homers a year and have a batting average around .280. In the end he should be a better overall hitter than the sixth hitter.
Ideal number seven hitter: Justin Morneau
The poor man's choice: James Loney
8. This should be your worst hitter. This is generally where the guy who is only playing for his defense hits. Realistically, you would like a batting average above .240 here and hopefully someone who can hit around 6 or 7 home runs. Anything more is pretty good. Going into the pretty good range, it would be nice if this guy can have quality at bats, get a decent amount of hits, and have pretty good speed so when the leadoff man comes back to hit again he can do so with someone on on base and in scoring position.
Ideal number seven hitter: Marco Scutato
The poor man's choice: David Eckstein
9. Pitcher
The All Star Lineup
1. Jose Reyes
2. Derek Jeter
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Prince Fielder
5. Albert Pujols
6. Joe Mauer
7. Justin Morneau
9. Pitcher
We have four shortstops and three first basemen. Oh well, this is never going to happen anyway. Obviously if it was a real All-Star lineup you would have maybe Robinson Cano hitting eighth and Ryan Howard hitting sixth, but I wanted to at least keep these players as definition players for the hitting spots.
The Poor Man's Lineup
1. Nyjer Morgan, LF
2. Ryan Theriot, SS
3. B.J. Upton, CF
4. Jack Cust, C
5. Justin Upton, RF
6. Scott Rolen, 3B
7. James Loney, 1B
8. David Eckstein, 2B
9. Pitcher
I put Cust at catcher because I needed a catcher and he would play crappy defense anyway no matter where I put him. Take a look at this lineup. Does it look so terrible to you? I had no real criteria for picking poor man's players, I just wanted to make sure he isn't an All-Star every year and he isn't on a really expensive contract. This lineup has a cornerstone player in Justin Upton and some very good role players. Sure, it doesn't have a bona fide MVP candidate, or someone who will hit 40 home runs, but is that necessary? And even if it is, nobody says that just because you have a low payroll, doesn't mean you can't afford one really good hitter. The A's got Matt Holiday. The Marlins almost got Manny Ramirez. To me, this looks like a decent lineup, and if you think about it, is a very good lineup.
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I have one massive problem with this.
You say the five-spot is where you put the team’s second best overall hitter, but you have Albert Pujols there. In what world is Albert Pujols the second best overall hitter on your team to Hanley Ramirez?
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Apr 6, 2010 5:15 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Mind you
this is in addition to my other massive problem with this, specifically that your all-star “realistic” line-up has four shortstops, three first baseman and a catcher. You, however, already acknowledged this.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Apr 6, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah and
it’s not like there aren’t center fielders and second basemen who are better hitters than Moreneau and Scutaro
in billionaire russian playboys we trust.
as I said
the All Star lineup was meant to show the best guys who are definition for that spot in the order, I realize it is not the best possible lineup and that the positions are whack
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Apr 6, 2010 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
And I also would prefer OBP to speed in the 1 and 2 spots every day. I’ll take Bobby Abreu and Nick Johnson in the 1/2 spots any day. I think you just try to get the most OBP into your lineup that you can in any way possible, and after that the most power.
"Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring; besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. It's more democratic."
- CRASH DAVIS
I think Hanley is a perfect leadoff hitter
.400 OBP and fast. I also think any optimum lineup should have the pitcher eighth, not ninth
Oddly, this was proven
Pirates batted pitcher 8th and had their optimal lineup right smack dab in the middle of the AL teams.
Batting the pitcher ninth dropped all NL teams to bottom.
I support Jenrry Mejia as a starter. Screw you Jerry Manuel for thinking he's a set-up man.
I saw that earlier
I’ve been hoping the Mets, once everyone is healthy, to put out this lineup:
Reyes
Pagan
Wright
Bay
Murphy
Barajas
Pitcher
Castillo
or at least once Reyes is back, put Castillo eighth.
Honestly, with that lineup?
Reyes
Castillo
Pagan
Wright
Bay
Murphy
Frenchy
Barajas
Pitcher
2nd spot and 5th spot are more important than the 3rd spot
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Is that true?
I don’t think I’ve ever heard that before. Wouldn’t you want Wright to get as many at bats while still having opportunities to drive in runs? Pagan in front of him may hurt his chances.
Yeah that's what I was wondering
Castillo and Pagan would end up getting way more bats than Bay and Wright. And they’re not exactly the type of guys you want taking bats from them, since Pagan isn’t exactly an obp machine, and even Castillo’s obp is likely to drop below it’ 2009 levels.
in billionaire russian playboys we trust.
Hey, don't take it up with me, check The Book.
I know 3rd in the order gets more at-bats, but if I had to guess the reason why it’s behind 4th and 5th, it would be leverage.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
It's because
the 3 spot bats with 2 outs more often than any other spot.
But if I remember correctly, that makes it even with 5th, not behind it.
3rd Spot
I have been playing around with the lineup analysis optimizer posted below by Catsmeat. It sometimes spits out optimal lineups where the second or third worst hitter (in terms of OPS) hits third. Would that ever be a rational result, or is it a quirk in the program?
"Since we became accelerated readers, we never leave the house." - Los Campesinos
flawed program
This one’s better:
http://www.csie.nctu.edu.tw/~chenyy/FAAB/Lineup/set.php
Yeah like supermet said
3&5 are even. Plus in that case wouldn’t you want Wright or Bay 2nd, definitely not Castillo. It seems like
Reyes
Castillo
Bay
Wright
Pagan would make more sense, especially because, at least in theory, Pagan can move himself over.
in billionaire russian playboys we trust.
I agree
however that is not realistically going to happen with many teams, so I assumed the normal thing to do was to put the pitcher ninth
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Apr 6, 2010 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Like I said
the fifth spot should have more power and the third spot should have more speed, so it is kind of interchangeable based on the specific hitters
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Apr 6, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Pujols the best
Hanley needs to put a few more years together to pass Albert for me
by Rickfansince76 on Apr 7, 2010 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions
OK, bored at the end of the workday
I ran your perfect line-up through the lineup analysis optimizer using 2009 numbers and it came up with 6.186 runs per game (using just a filler pitcher with a .163 OBP and .185 SLG). The line-up was optimized at 6.551 runs per game thusly:
Mauer
Pujols
Jeter
Fielder
Ramirez
Morneau
Reyes
Pitcher
Scutaro
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Apr 6, 2010 5:35 PM EDT reply actions
In fairness
Reyes’ numbers probably aren’t all that indicative.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Batting coach McGwire approves

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Apr 6, 2010 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I considered them
and if this was a “Dream Lineup” then A-Rod would be in it, but this was meant more to show who is the textbook definition for who should be hitting in that spot in the order.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Apr 6, 2010 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
The Book says the following:
- 1, 2, 4: Your three best hitters, with 1 having the highest OBP, 4 having the most power, and 2 the one in between
- 3, 5: The next two best hitters, 3 the one with more OBP, 5 the one with more power
- 6, 7: The next two best hitters, 6 is the better one
- 8: The worst hitter, usually the pitcher in an NL lineup
- 9: Second worst hitter in the lineup
So what is that?
Wright
Beltran
Reyes
Bay
Pagan
Castillo
Murphy
Pitcher
Francoeur
Maybe switch Pagan and Castillo and Murphy and Francoeur
I feel like a line up that's more within reason
as in wouldn’t cause everyone in our front office to have a heart attack would be.
Reyes
Beltran
Bay
Wright
Murphy
Pagan
Frenchy
Pitcher
Castillo
of course Jerry would never go for it because of handedness, and they’d never put Bay second and Beltran between him and Wright.
in billionaire russian playboys we trust.
Only problem
is you have Francoeur playing catcher.
another view
then there’s the idiot’s choice for clean up / Mike Jacobs I kinda like the poor man’s choice /good pitching and you could go all the way with that line up

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