Gameday Preview: 4/7, Mets vs. Marlins
by Sam Page on Apr 7, 2010 12:00 AM EDT
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PrintCoverage: SBNation--FishStripes--TV: SNY--Radio: WFAN--Game time: 7:10 ET
Probable Starting Lineups
The starters don't figure to change much with GMJ playing well and another righty on the mound. Look for Tatis and Tejada to start Thursday vs. Nate Robertson.
- Alex Cora-SS
- Luis Castillo-"2B"
- David Wright-3B
- Mike Jacobs-1B
- Jason Bay-LF
- Gary Matthews-"CF"
- Jeff Francoeur-RF
- Rod Barajas-C
- John Maine-P
John Baker will likely go against right-handed Johnny.
- Chris Cogz4christ--LF
- Cameron Maybin--CF
- Hanley Ramirez--SS
- Jorge Cantu--3B
- Dan Uggla--2B
- John Baker--C
- Cody Ross--RF
- Gaby Sanchez--1B
- Ricky Nolasco--P
Pitching Matchup
Scouting Report: When he's on, John Maine mixes three pitches (FB, SL, CH) well, getting a healthy number of strikeouts and keeping hitters honest the second and third times through the order. His primary pitch is a plus-fastball with natural "rising" movement that leads to a ton of flyballs. At its best, the slider works as a good put-away pitch and the changeup keeps lefties off-balance. Since his breakout 2006, however, Maine's stuff has come and gone due to arm injuries and endurance-issues. In every year since '06, his innings have gone down and his FIP and LD% up. Tomorrow will be an interesting test of his arm strength, and early indication whether the dominant #2 starter Maine might show up this year or the oft-injured one with the shaky command.
Key Matchups:
- Dan Uggla--The all-or-nothing Uggla crushes fastballs (he lead the Marlins in pitch-value runs versus fastballs in 2009). Also considering his reverse platoon-split and prodigious walk rates, he could give Maine serious trouble if the breaking ball isn't working. He's a career 7/25 with a HR vs. Maine.
- Chris Coghlan--Cogz had similar numbers against the heater his rookie year, without Uggla's weakness against breaking balls. He's left-handed and can wait out erratic pitchers.
Scouting Report: He's my totally-serious Cy Young pick. Last year my love for Nolasco was somewhat of a running-joke early on. He ended up having the season I expected, albeit without the ERA or results. Going forward, however, there's no reason not to expect dominance from the young righty. Nolasco throws a lot of good pitches: a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a curveball, a cutter, a slider, and a changeup. Against righties, the cutter and the slider are tough pitches to put in play. His repertoire is deep enough to handle most lefties. His command is very good. It's hard to see how he could have struggled so much last season, but luck was a big part of it, his fastball getting hit hard also a factor. He's prone to giving up homers and has poor splits in high leverage situations, both small windows of hope in Citi Field and with the current Mets lineup.
Key Matchups:
- Jeff Francoeur--Francoeur might actually be the best fastball hitter in the lineup currently and may need to turn on a few to keep the Mets in this game. He's got a 1.016 OPS in 24 career PA versus Nolasco, including 2 home runs.
- Jason Bay--Actually the best fastball hitter on the Mets is Bay, with a ridiculous career +142 run value versus heaters.
Overall Thoughts
This game represents the one in this series where the pitching match-up clearly favors the Marlins. Maine needs to own the Marlins like he did that one time he almost threw that no-hitter before the other game when Tom Glavine did the bad thing. I won't make a prediction, because I can't pick the Mets in good conscience, yet don't wanna kill the early-season good vibes.
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i also enjoyed that
subtle. youre a sly one sam page.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
He deserves a "4." for sure
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
I really hope Maine turns in a nice performance tomorrow.
If he’s healthy and productive this season, the Mets rotation actually has a chance to be pretty good (regardless of Ollie). At least with all the questionable position players we either have better options on the DL or good prospects who might be here by mid-season. We’re kind of short of near ready pitching prospects.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Apr 7, 2010 12:30 AM EDT reply actions
Very true.
There’s no help on the way for the rotation unless Omar makes a trade.
by EricAColucci on Apr 7, 2010 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I almost expect it by mid-season
I really think he’ll end up mirroring Bobby Parnell’s 2009 season as far as his role goes.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Apr 7, 2010 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
We'll see Takahashi or maybe Nieve before Mejia
The Mets wont throw Mejia this young kid into the starting rotation without properly preparing him for that and stretching out his arm, carefully and cautiously. After all the brouhaha over bringing him up as a one-inning reliever, people now want to throw him into the starting rotation?
"Never throw a slider to The Glider."
- Ed Charles, No. 5
Don't mistake "want" with "expect".
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Apr 7, 2010 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Because the Mets are now so gun-shy of injuries?
I would think they are. But, hey, I’ve been wrong about many things when it comes to this organization.
"Never throw a slider to The Glider."
- Ed Charles, No. 5
That actually has me thinking
Would I rather have Mejia start for the Mets or pitch in relief? While my first choice would be starting in the minors, I think I’d prefer him starting for the Mets (over someone like Perez) than have him in the bullpen. The most important thing for him is to work on his secondary offerings and stretching out his arm, two things he can’t do in the pen.
rather him start than relieve
be it in Bingo, Buffalo or Queens
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
I'd prefer him thrown into the starting rotation than being in the bullpen.
As a starter, even if he gets shellacked (which he will), he’ll be using his secondary pitches. The whole brouhaha about Mejia being used as a one-inning reliever was that Jerry wanted him to primarily use his fastball, and not work on his other, more important breaking balls.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Apr 7, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Will he be ready for that?
He’s had so little time above A ball, I’m not even sure if he’s ready for his bullpen role. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Should I be ashamed of the fact that I have a custom John Maine jersey?
I got it at the beginning of ‘08. Yikes…so obviously I’m rooting for Maine to have a good outing today.
I have always really liked Maine
I would love to see him rebound this year and pitch like he did in ’07
2009 Did Not Happen
Yeah, this.
I’ve been a fan since he got here and I’d like to see him get it together this year.
"He's definitely mixing it into his repertoire. That's French for 'repertoire' " - Keith Hernandez
by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Apr 7, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
This headshot of Maine is amazing.
"Seriously, Lana, call Kenny Loggins ‘cause you’re in the danger zone."
Hulk, is that you?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Apr 7, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Different starting lineup
I dont really like how our lineup is structured right now and I think changing it would be a good thing to do. I would go Castillo, GMJ, Wright, Bay, Jacobs, Frenchie, Barajas, Cora, pitcher. I think Cora stinks too much to keep at the top of our order. I like having Bay batting cleanup rather than Jacobs, however this makes our lineup mostly top heavy. But I like it better. What im really excited for though is when Reyes and Beltran get back into the lineup how much nastier it will be. We would be looking at Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Murphy, Frenchie, Barajas. That is a pretty good looking lineup and I can’t wait to see what it can do.
I'd rather have Pagan than GMJ
I Believe in 2010
by Jadden Hopkins on Apr 7, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
rather see Cora on the bench.
let the kid play, Tejada play. and if Cora must play I would also hit him 8th
SHORTSTOPS MUST LEAD OFF
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by JohnPeterson on Apr 7, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Not that you didn't already know...
But Nolasco’s (ERA – FIP) last year was something like 1.8 — by FAR the highest difference among starters last year (next closest diff was like 1.1). He’s plenty good.
I know I've probably brought this up a half dozen times
but I was at that near no-hitter by Maine. That game was epic.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
and I know I've brought it up a bunch of times
but I was at the next game, when Tom Glavine did the bad thing. Also epic, in the same way that Waterworld was epic.
2009 Did Not Happen
great comparison
both left me saying “what the f— just happened? and can I have the last 3 hours of my life back?”
[full disclosure: I will watch chunks of Waterworld when it’s on AMC, because I find it oddly intriguing. I would not watch the Gl——- start if you paid me handsomely to do so]
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Apr 7, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
The line
“before the other game when Tom Glavine did the bad thing.”
cracked me up, big time. Heeelarious.
"CF"?
You’ve been reading Lookout Landing.
Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa
Is it wrong to root for a golden sombrero for Mike Jacobs?
Would a 4 strikeout game get the powers that be to see the error of their ways?
Nope. But it wouldn't matter unless the team also lost, which I won't root for.
Let’s face it, if we win, the dude could go 0-5 with 5 strikeouts and a runner’s interference, six errors, and drop his pants at first, and he’d still be out there tomorrow.
Shouldn't game day be two words?
I thought this was going to be a preview of the little man who’s either a righty or a lefty on my computer screen.
Anyone know why Maine is pitching as our "number two" starter, as opposed to Pelfrey, like last season?
Either way, it doesn’t make too much of a difference, but I was a little surprised when I saw his shadowy visage up there (and, yes, that is a cool picture).
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Apr 7, 2010 1:58 PM EDT reply actions
maybe the idea is to spread the stress on the bullpen out?
keep him as far away from Ollie in the rotation as possible?
in billionaire russian playboys we trust.
if we had a little pitching depth
wonder if it would ever make sense to tag-team early-leaving starters who are much better the first couple times through the lineup. “Today we expect Perez to go 3 or 4 and Maine to go 3 or 4.” Ever been done?
by Pack Bringley on Apr 7, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
You mean, like a double starter combo-type situation?
Maine throws innings1-4, and Perez throws innings 6-9*. I can’t say I’ve ever heard of any teams doing something like that. It seems an enormous waste of resources, from a front office POV- so, that means, that’s probably what’s going to happen this season.
*no guarantees he lasts more than 1/3 inning.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Apr 7, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
in theory your tag-team combo could pitch more
than 1 out of 5 days… I think I read something somewhere advocating this total fuck-up of the normal rotation idea, but it would be quite a radical experiment.
by Pack Bringley on Apr 7, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
this is the kind of thing that could only be done
by a manager already pretty much guaranteed to be losing their job at the end of the season, who has nothing to lose. So its quite possible we may be in a situation to try it at some point. If it worked they’d look brilliant if it failed they’d never live it down.
by KeithsMoustache on Apr 7, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
one day
there will be an owner who says, “look, I’m thick skinned, richer than God, don’t read papers, and don’t own a radio. You seem to have some interesting ideas about the best way to manage a baseball team. You’ve got 5 years, give it a go.”
maybe?
by Pack Bringley on Apr 7, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
That kind of seems like what the red sox did with Theo
except a smaller team that had nothing to lose just because they were so broke did it first.
in billionaire russian playboys we trust.
Then why not an in-game manager?
Why isn’t Francona told to ignore the torrent of criticism he’d get for letting Papelbon pitch in a big spot in the 7th?
by Pack Bringley on Apr 7, 2010 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
probably because the difference in Papelbon
and they’re other relievers isn’t really big enough to make it worth dealing with the media frenzy, which is probably why they used so many top tier starting prospects as relievers through out the years and acquired someone like Wagner so they’d have other options to go to. And I know they basically let a computer decide their batting orders.
in billionaire russian playboys we trust.
I've been throwing this idea around for a while, and would love it.
It is a way to leverage all of the starters in the league with the stamina to go 4 or 5 strong. since those pitchers cost half the amount that the same starter going 6-7 would, you could use that advantage and rest the bullpen regularly. I’ve seen it discussed on Prospectus a few times too. The reason it wouldn’t happen is that every starter wants their shot at a W, and the stats are distributed based on starter, often enough. A starter who knows he would get taken out before the W could vest would see himself as a glorified reliever.
for fun, what about
a step further… A 3-“man” rotation of, say,
Santana-Pelfrey
Maine-Ollie
Niese-Takahashi
where the plan is that every pitcher gives you 4. you would presumably end up with far more quality “starts”, no?
Hmm, Pelfrey pitched 184 innings last year in 31 GP. If he pitched 5/3 the games at 4 innings per, that would be 204 innings. That’s a lot, but he wouldn’t always have to go 4. Anyway don’t crucify me, I’m just mucking about.
by Pack Bringley on Apr 7, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I love it
although I would try to have the first pitcher go 5, and see how they are. In addition to not going through the rotation a third time, pitchers could let it all out in the second time through, and if they get through their 5 cleanly, a W could vest. Closers would hate me though…
to do what you're suggesting
you could cut back on relievers and probably carry a 4-“man” rotation, i.e. 8 semi-starters, 4 relievers.
by Pack Bringley on Apr 7, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
right, except I would go more extreme
Once you have that many pitchers stretched out, you would automatically have 2 loosening up every day for their throw days. you would have 8 semi-starters, 2 general relievers available every day (who are already included under “starters”), and the rest of your bullpen can consist of specialists. I would also make the specialists more valuable by stashing them in the outfield to get around bad match ups and get them back on the mound.
And you'd hire the first lesbian japanese disabled pitching coach
break all barriers!
by Pack Bringley on Apr 7, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought we already had those...
I may hire someone with two heads, to try to free up a coaching spot. I would also try to exploit the unexploited market of 1 armed hitters, although I understand the Browns did that back in the day. I also have some ideas people might think are weird…
Jim Abbott managed
now granted he only had 2 career hits, but he was a pitcher, so thats not so bad.
by KeithsMoustache on Apr 7, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Pete Gray was a ~.220 hitter...
Although it was better until pitchers realized he couldn’t check his swing (no second hand to keep the bat head back). Made it really hard to hit a curveball. He was a ~.330 hitter in the minors.
It could be the next moneyball "hidden value" find
Theoretically, you could buy cheaper pitchers because they won’t have to get through the line-up that third time.
Makes sense...
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Apr 7, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that it makes sense.
That is the exact reason that I assume there is a different reason for the change.
Tonight's game will be tough
it’s probably a game that Florida wins, but Maine does pitch well against the fish. If they could somehow get this one, they’d have a great chance at a sweep, because Robertson is pretty bad, and the righties we have should be able to get to him. Lineup would look much better with Pagan.
I'll be at the game tonight, so far we're 2-2 in my attendances.. I think Maine lost the first ever game I went to.
Pelf won two, one was his complete game from a couple of years ago.
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