What to Do With Frenchy
by Eno Sarris on May 25, 2010 2:00 PM EDT
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PrintEven the most ardent of Jeff Francoeur supporters are crying Oh Frenchy these days. He's 10 for his last 78 and we've been reminded, painfully, that over his career he has not shown even average skills with the bat.
Let that one sink in. If the mainstream memes are to be believed, Frenchy is an average outfielder with 'prodigious power' and a hose that nudges his defensive and overall value into the positive. Let's choose wRC, which is weighted Runs Created created by wOBA, or weighted on-base average, to see if there's any merit to that assertion. The idea is to measure how many runs a hitter's basic stats would create. Then there's wRC+, which puts wRC on a scale so that 100 equals league average. For his career Frenchy has a 91 wRC+. He's 9% below average with the bat across his career - and that includes his fiery debut. He's been closer to 25% below average most years, including this year (72 wRC+). As for prodigious power, Frenchy has a .160 career ISO and the league average is .155. All those outs pretty much undo that tiny bit of above-average offensive skill though. A .309 OBP isn't good.
Unpacking the rest of the pro-Frenchy meme, we do find some value in the package. Much is made of his defense, especially that hose attached at his shoulder. The defensive stat UZR sometimes gets disparaged - how can Jason Bay go from bad to scratch with the click of a button?!!!!111?! - it's useful if you zoom out a little further than you might need to with offensive stats. A recent post by researcher Tom Tango did some surface work on UZR and demonstrated that it could take about two and a half years worth of UZR data to predict future UZR work with any reliability. If we just take Frenchy's full career (basically about five years), he's a +6.8 right fielder. Over the last three years, he's been more of a scratch defender. Hey! At least his arm is actually good - it's been worth 35 runs over the average arm.
Even a scratch defender on the corners has value, though. If used correctly. You see, when Carlos Beltran comes back, there will be an outfield log jam. If Beltran can play center field, he will form a productive tandem in center with Angel Pagan that should have the position covered. That leaves right field for Frenchy and Chris Carter. The easy answer is to release Gary Matthews Jr and leave Carter as the backup, but what's the right answer? (Let's just leave the question of what happens if Beltran can't play center aside for now.)
Carter only has 42 plate appearances in his career and it's hard to say he deserves to take time from Frenchy just yet. The shot at a league-average bat sounds better and better every day, but his lack of experience makes league-average-ness a question that Carter can only answer. It's worth noting that he was always stronger (or more powerful) against right-handers in the minors (.298/.366/.530 versus righties and .299/.381/.412 versus southpaws). Lo and behold, Frenchy is better against lefties (.298/.340/.480 versus lefties and .256/.297/.408 versus righties). That performance is good for a 113 wRC+ against lefties. If you smushed these two guys together at the bat by platooning them, you might even actually get league-average production from right field. These days that would be a victory for the Mets.
Baseball men sometimes abhor the platoon for reasons unknown, and Frenchy seemingly embodies that all-around average game that a manager might just want to pencil in for daily work. There's a chance his smile blinds management from the best course of action. But given Carter's struggles with the glove (he's been a minus defender at every stop in the minor leagues), his bat against righties, and Frenchy's defense and bat against lefties, there's a real non-zero chance that the best course of action in right field is to platoon him with Chris Carter - and give him the short end of the platoon, maybe with some late-inning defensive replacement work sprinkled in. In fact, that might be the best course of action before Beltran returns.
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Here's an interesting comparison.
Assume you have two options for RF:
Player A – Has a career wOBA of.315, is a career 6.8 UZR/150 in RF, currently has a .281 wOBA, 7% BB rate, 19.1% K rate, and has been worth 1.3 runs saved defensively in extensive play time. He’s only under contract until the end of this season, and will likely be DFA’d at that point. He’s played 3 innings outside of RF in his career. He bats right handed exclusively.
Player B – Has a career wOBA of .323, is a career 16.2 UZR/150 in RF (small sample size for sure), currently has a wOBA of .217, 8.2% BB rate, 40% K rate, and has been worth 1.9 runs saved in the outfield in very limited duty. His career has been primarily as a CF, but lately he has been used on both corners as well. He’s (unfortunately) under contract next season as well. He is a switch hitter.
Niether guy is a very good (or even very close to average). Given the choice, I wouldn’t have either of these guys on my team. If I was given the choice right now to cut one or the other, I’d have to cut Player A. He’s less versatile if he’s on the bench, seems to be the lesser defender, and isn’t really a very good option as a pinch hitter. While Player B is probably less valuable as a pinch hitter, his switch hitting and ability to play multiple outfield spots make him the more appealing bench option for me. Given regular playing time (please…no), I’d expect he’s capable of matching player A’s .283 wOBA (wow).
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on May 25, 2010 2:27 PM EDT reply actions
You really think the Mets will DFA "Player A" after this season?
I don’t give them that much credit.
by JohnPeterson on May 25, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I have to think they will, espescially if Beltran looks like he needs to move to the corner.
I don’t think even our management can feel he’s worth 6-7 million at this point. The fact that Jerryballs has dropped him to 8th in the lineup at least shows that they aren’t real sure of his bat.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on May 25, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
The Plan
Step 1: Chris Carter on the ML roster. (check)
Step 2: Chris Carter starts a few games in RF. (check)
Step 3: Chris Carter platoons against RHP in RF.
Step 4: Chris Carter is the starting RF.
Step 5: ???
Step 6: World F***ing Champtions.
Projections:
CHONE: Francoeur .327 wOBA / Carter .344 wOBA
ZIPS: Francoeur .322 wOBA / Carter .337 wOBA
Defense (last 2 years):
UZR/150: Francoeur -2.5 (2009)/ -2.0 (2008).
TZ/150: Carter -3(2009) / +11 (2008). Even if you disregard completely his 2008 data, his defense looks at least equal.
For corner outfielders, it appears that the quality of fielding, by looking at players who move up in levels, is lower as you move up in level, with major leaguers being the worst! HT
I don’t want to repeat everything that I wrote in the lobby manifest.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
Correction
F***ing
Ph***ing
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on May 25, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Question on wOBA
is there a translation to wins? In other words, is the .327 vs. .344 difference in CHONE projections worth fretting over?
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
8.8 runs for 600 PA (0.88 WAR)
I did this math in the lobby manifest.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
I think you can translate it to RAA
which can directly be translated to WAR. Here’s the primer on it. The formula is ((wOBA – lg wOBA)/Scale) * PA, you just have to find the league average wOBA, and I don’t know where you’d find that mid-season, Baseball reference only has ops so you’d have to convert that to wOBA and then go from there I guess.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
wait im retarded you wouldn't need mid-season league average wOBA
you’d just need league average wOBA which is apparently .330.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
I guess he was asking how many runs (or wins) we would get if we replaced a .327 wOBA for a .344 wOBA.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
8.8 runs ~ .88 wins
So would be a win, supposedly. But I think taking even the ZiPs projection for Carter is optimistic until he shows us something for a lil bit.
Yeah but how can he show us something
buried on the bench?
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Carter deserves shot at platoon
sitting him on the bench for 1 AB a game is not going to help him or the team. He came up hitting because he was getting 4 ABs a day at AAA, bu thim on the bench and he starts to become less effective. He needs to see ABs against RHP.
I was really big on Frenchy but he is in a horrible slump, maybe seeing just LHP gets him hot too, maybe the post is correct an dplatooning the 2 makes for a very good RF, and I am for bringing in Frenchy as a Defensive replacement late, just as I am for bringing in Carter as a PH and to finish a game when we need a few runs
by Rickfansince76 on May 25, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I love how
Carter is sitting on the bench everyday, considered by the organization to be the last man and probably the first in line to be sent down, while GMJ, Cora, and Tatis are all ahead of him in pinch-hitting priority.
The Mets are a shitty organization.
by JohnPeterson on May 25, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
step 5:
Beltran returns to lock down the spacious right fight
by Mike Clemente on May 25, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it involves stealing underpants.
by EricAColucci on May 25, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
It's the step between stealing underpants and profit.
And only the gnomes know…
by MookieTheCat on May 26, 2010 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Sounds too much like right
it’ll never work.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
Eno, instead of platooning Frenchy and Carter...
why not move Beltran to RF considering he has been declining in / the field according to the naked eye, UZR (-6.0 last year), and has serious knee issuesThen you leave Pagan, who has been great, in center field, cut GMJ, and have Carter on the bench.
beltran hopefully won't decline that much
I am worried with the injuries he may be less of a CF but he deserves a chance to prove he is still the CF. I don’t think Pagan is great, he is good but not great
by Rickfansince76 on May 25, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
They'll demote Carter before they DFA GMJ.
by JohnPeterson on May 25, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
that's my concern.
If they move Beltran to RF then Pagan and GMJ are on the team and Carter is back down. But if Beltran can play center, the door is opened for GMJ to go because I don’t think you need to plan for two backup CFs.
Then again
I’d rather have everyday Bay-Pagan-Beltran, with GMJ backing up, than everyday Bay-Beltran-Frenchy, with Pagan sitting by reason of Mets idiocy.
by Pack Bringley on May 25, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Jerry already said, Pagan will play when beltran returns
by Mike Clemente on May 25, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know how far i trust him to keep that up
After all, GMJ is still receiving at-bats. But one can always hope.
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on May 25, 2010 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Whoever it was that said "At least we cleared the GMJ spot"
It was a great comment. Except he can’t bunt.
by MookieTheCat on May 26, 2010 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Having Pagan certainly gives the Mets this option.
But it might be too early to declare that Beltran can’t handle center anymore. A bad UZR last year isn’t a positive thing by any means, but one shortened season is too small of a sample size for UZR to be meaningful (as Eno mentions in the article).
by EricAColucci on May 25, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
another question is if beltran will cotton to playing anything other than center
considering he’s already acted in his own interests by getting off-season surgery when he did, can you assume he’ll give up his spot in center when that’s where he’ll make the most money as a free agent in a couple years?
"No disrespect to the batter," Figueroa said, "but tacos are good."
by inventor frank on May 26, 2010 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Here's a player:
He has hit .285/.349/.458 with 21 HR and 40 2B in 655 AB since the start of the 2008 season, comparable to his career rate. ZIPS projects him for a .353 RoS wOBA.
He’s been an average to slightly above-average corner outfielder over that time, according to the defensive metrics, in about 100 games worth of data.
Fangraphs rates him as a 3.9 WAR player over that span. Baseball-Reference says 3.6 WAR.
If you haven’t guessed, the player is Fernando Tatis.
by psiogen on May 25, 2010 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Hey now, we can't take Tatis out of his current role
as the third pinch-hitter behind Cora and GMJ.
by EricAColucci on May 25, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Doesn't he run a church or something?
The meek shall inherit the outfield starting role. If the left hand of hate strikes down any more outfielders.
by MookieTheCat on May 26, 2010 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Francoeur reminds me of when I play blackjack
I know I’m going to lose in the long run, but man it just feels so damn good when I hit.
by Pat Andriola on May 25, 2010 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
In more ways than one.
Always trying to get the feeling of that first high.
by MookieTheCat on May 26, 2010 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I am confused here
are you saying releasing GMJ is the wrong answer???
If Beltran makes it back, either he or Pagan will be in RF. How do you justify benching Pagan so you can have Frenchy’s arm in right?
IMO, if Beltran gets healthy, release GMJ and Frenchy and call-up two of Feliciano/Hessman/Pridie/Evans/Murphy/add bat here. Feliciano should provide acceptable defense when Beltran needs rest, and even when you adjust his ridiculous AAA stats (.383 avg! larger from a high BABIP) he has still been really good. Or you put Tatis in RF some if he is still a Met (seriously is he? lol)
no, definitely arguing for releasing GMJ
Just saying that you will need Pagan to play CF enough that Carter/Frenchy could still be a league-average platoon RF together.
I like this plan
too bad the Mets won’t eat either of those contracts, best case we can probably hope for is both of them on the bench, although French can’t be a pinch hitter at this rate so I’m not sure. Maybe the FO will actually decide to eat his contract if he’s not in the field.
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on May 25, 2010 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Makes too much sense.
Ergo, Omar won’t ever go for it…
Oh, the butcher and the baker and the people on the street: wheredotheygo?!?!?
Reputation
Beyond the arguments you use here about Frenchy and assuming that there was no learning or instruction gained in coming to the Mets (in scouting reports or Hojo working on his patience or anything) and Frenchy is the poor player he’s been prior to coming to the Mets and looks like recently, how do you accurated gauge and analyze his reputation with his arm?
Can you accurately measure at what rate baserunners stop at first instead of going to second, or stop at third on a single to RF from second because of what they fear he can do? Can you analyze this based on numbers, or is it impossible to determine if it’s his reputation or just that the ball was hit too hard or the runner was too slow, or one third basecoach is actively scared of him (say Atlanta’s) whereas another one pays him no regard?
What overall value does this have on the team versus someone else?
-Ceetar, the Optimistic Mets Fan
I don't think there's anyway to value it
the only way I could think of would to see the difference between runners advancing on our other right fielders. If there’s a significant difference then I’d suppose you’d have to chalk it up to Frenchy’s arm reputation.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
and of course the only way to do that would be to
give other players significant enough time at rf to make the comparison. Or I guess maybe compare it to our right fielders from 08 till the time we traded for him or something.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
UZR Primer
They are based on the speed and location of batted balls to the outfield and how often base runners advance extra bases (advances), don’t advance the extra base (holds), or get thrown out trying to advance (kills). Park factors are used in arm ratings. For example, because the left fielder plays so shallow in Fenway and balls tend to quickly ricochet off the Green Monster, it is difficult to advance an extra base on a hit to LF in Boston. In Colorado, because the OF is so expansive, base runners advance more easily than in an average park. The UZR "arm engine" adjusts for those things. Link
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
Bingo.
That’s how it’s done.
Arm – Outfield Arm Runs Above Average:
“As well, outfield arm run values are also computed separately from "regular" UZR. They are based on the speed and location of batted balls to the outfield and how often base runners advance extra bases (advances), don’t advance the extra base (holds), or get thrown out trying to advance (kills). Park factors are used in arm ratings. For example, because the left fielder plays so shallow in Fenway and balls tend to quickly ricochet off the Green Monster, it is difficult to advance an extra base on a hit to LF in Boston. In Colorado, because the OF is so expansive, base runners advance more easily than in an average park. The UZR "arm engine" adjusts for those things.”
From Fangraphs.com. Frenchy had the sixth-best arm in baseball last year according to the ARM stat.
Something I've always wondered:
What sort of velocity do you think an outfielder has on a strong throw? Considering the few steps momentum, faster than a pitcher?
by Pack Bringley on May 25, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
not sure if it matters
but i do recall hearing frenchy has BABIP almost .100 under his career average, i don’t think he’s this bad
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
Yeah but it's because his ld% is well below his career average
it’s about where you would expect it to be for his batted ball profile. He’s not getting unlucky.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
True, but why is his LD% so freakishly low? (9% if I'm not mistaken)
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
swinging at bad pitches and making contact
would be my guess. He’s swinging at more out of zone pitches than he ever has before, and it looks like pitchers realize it and aren’t even throwing him strikes anymore.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
It's 20% against LHP, 5% against RHP,
so he’s a platoon player masquerading as a Starting RF. That is why his LD rate is so poor. Also he’s just not that good at baseball.
I just don't get the Carter skepticism here
Or the reluctance to say that Francoeur is a bench major-leaguer at best and his talent level in no way deserves a starting role, even in a platoon. Why mess around with these half measures? Francoeur is a replacement-level or (very likely) worse hitter, and always has been.
Freedomcoeur
is a perfectly acceptable major league hitter. . . or would be, were he a relief pitcher.
Excellent idea.
Convert Frenchy to pinch-hitter/relief pitcher? I’m game.
by JohnPeterson on May 25, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I would love to see him pitch.
Bet you hits 93 on the gun. ;)
No offense to the author's hard work, but,
platooning Francouer is an obvious move. It’s what Francouer should end up as, SOON, making something like $2m a year as the short side of a RF platoon, ph v lefties, defensive sub if your regular RFer is below average in the field.
It’s impossible to predict what the Mets FO will do. They may, at the end of the season, if Francouer rebounds to something like 270/300/400, offer him arbitration because they thnk he’s such a great clubhouse guy. I doubt they’ll have the sense to nontender him and offer him a substantial pay cut. He’s a useful spare part if handled correctly and not asked to do the things he’s proven over several years that he simply can’t do.
As for The Arm, that’s worth, what—half a game or so per year?
I have no idea
what’s the value of his arm, and I am too lazy to look it up, but I’d say it has to be more than just a half win per year. For instance, in the Santana game against the Yankees he held runners at least twice which very well might have been decisive. I know this is not how it’s calculated but still, I’d say the arm plays an important role.
yeah but its not just how much he himself has held them up
it’s how often he’s held them up compared to the leagues other right fielders. and since right fielders usually have strong arms you would expect the average right fielder would have had guys run on him in those games either.
Plus there’s also times where he might overrate his own arm strength and make poor throwing decisions when he shouldn’t leading to runs that shouldn’t have scored.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
yeah,
this makes sense. On the other hand, I doubt that either Tatis or Carter are average right fielders when it comes to arm strength. And, at least in the short run, the comparison of Francouer to those two guys is what’s relevant.
Yeah but there also not horribly below average offensively
And it’s hard to imagine their arms will be so badly behind that it will outweigh, or even out, the offensive differences. Especially since for all the talk about his arm Frenchy’s range hasn’t been the same in 3 years so it’s not like he’s still an overall plus defender.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
RFs' arms are just not that important.
It’s a nice supplementary skill for a player who’s acceptable as a hitter and as a fielder, but Francoeur is not that player — so the extra tiny handful of bases over the course of a season that his arm saves are not going to make him worth playing in RF.
I wouldn't say platooning him is the obvious move.
I’d say he really needs to be released. He’s just not defensively versatile enough to play on an NL bench. I could see carrying a guy like that with a good bat, but his bat just sucks. I can’t imagine not seeing regular action is going to do good things for his pitch recognition, and getting any worse would just be beyond scary.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on May 25, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
His bat sucks in the role he's currently playing,
but I think Eno’s point is that it would get better if he only saw lefties (career 113 wRC+ against them, as noted in the post).
by EricAColucci on May 25, 2010 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe
I almost wonder if his pitch recognition would suffer due to not getting regular at bats. I actually think his numbers would end up getting worse.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on May 25, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
What to do with Frenchy?
Take him to the nearest gas station and re-fill him with GRISSON!
I’m at a loss about Jeff. I have never, in all my years of watching MLB baseball, have seen someone just struggle like he has.
Something else about Frenchy.
Would he accept being put in a Platoon Role with Carter? He does seem like the type of guy who would do anything to help the team but then again, we don’t really know the guy so I am not sure.
if he'd do anything to help the team,
why is he playing?
hey Eric Byrnes did it
rather than burdening a team with his services.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
I'd take frenchy on my beer league team anyday
His smile would likely count for something there too
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on May 25, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
if i remember correctly
there was a story about frenchy causing a major stink with the braves when they sent him to the minors to work on his hitting.
he complained about the move and wound up forcing the trade out of atlanta because of it.
i don’t see him accepting a platoon role
I thought the story was
Francoeur bitched about being in the minors, and then the Braves called him back up within a day or two.
There may be sunny days ahead.
I posted this in another thread
that’s kind of a hot mess. But as far as right field does anyone think there’d be any possibility of a Beltran(and some type of prospect package) for Crawford swap, if we paid some of Beltran’s contract? The Rays likely won’t be able to extend Crawford past this season, where as we could, but Beltran could probably match his value this year, and they’d have the option of dhing him to get him rest while keeping his bat in the line up, and he’d probably keep them over the top for next year since I don’t know if they have a replacement in line for Crawford. Obviously this would depend entirely on Beltran coming back and playing at a high level before the deadline.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
If Crawford is the target, I'd rather wait until the offseason.
At that point we can hopefully have Beltran reestablish some value. If we eat enough of his contract, we’d likely actually have a net gain after losing a draft pick (2nd rounder probably) for Crawford. That would also allow us to shop him to teams other than Tampa. I don’t think Crawford by himself makes our season, so I’d rather just wait out the market.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on May 25, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
but really, why should the Mets be looking to trade Beltran?
He’s signed to a pretty reasonable contract and is a great baseball player. The Mets aren’t going anywhere this year, and Crawford is the kind of guy they can wait on and try to snap up in free agency down the road a piece.
Well partially because I'm not sure we'd have the same chance of signing him
if he hit the open market as we might trading for him at the deadline and because we’re really not very likely to contend next year the way things are going so keeping Beltran for one year has less value to us and if we can get a long-term piece it might make more sense. Especially since if Beltran walks, and at this point I really think there’s a good chance just because the relationship might be too damaged, we’d be left with nothing.
That being said I forgot Crawford plays lf and that Beltran can’t be offered arbitration. I’m not sure if he’d be willing to switch positions or if the Rays would even consider it for a player they can’t collect draft picks for.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
That's an interesting definition of "reasonable contract":
2/37 for a guy who has yet to play a game, is on the long DL, and may be a corner OFer at best when and if he returns.
Fact is, if Beltran comes back, and the lines are the same as they are now
Frenchy shouldn’t even sniff a starting role. Pagan’s earned it at this point, no matter where he plays (center or right)
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
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