Angel Pagan and War

A pretty good look at Pagan and WAR and how valuable he has been. I lobby for Frenchy WAR next!

almost 2 years ago twon8 16 comments 0 recs |

Comments

The Fangraphs version of defensive evaluation doesn’t just look at putouts and assists. It looks at where balls were hit, and how difficult they were to get outs on (the stat is referred to as Ultimate Zone Rating, or UZR). It says Pagan is only about three runs above a “replacement-level” player.

But by UZR fangraphs thinks he’s insane. Do BP and Totalzone think he’s even insaner? Or where they talking about last years WAR numbers? Which would have to be prorated to 600 PA’s.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on May 28, 2010 12:05 PM EDT reply actions

You are right, Fangraphs doesn't take his baserunning into account, and that is a very strong part of his game.

Fangraphs has him as the 4th best NL OF, behind only Heyward, Byrd and Willingham, and that is without his baserunning taken into account.

by twon8 on May 28, 2010 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought base running was factored into their wOBA? or is that statcorner?

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on May 28, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually I just looked at the numbers

both fangraphs and baseball reference have him as 19 runs above replacement and a 1.9 WAR player, I’m not sure where this difference he’s getting is coming from.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on May 28, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, I'm not sure either, unless he wrote this article a few days/week ago

From what I can tell fangraphs wOBA does not include baserunning.

by twon8 on May 28, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm guessing he used the stats available at the time he recieved the Email he reffered to.

It would really make sense with the way he wrote the introduction to the post.

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on May 28, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

it does include them

wOBA does include SB and CS.

by dkappelman on May 28, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know anything about wOBA

but the article said how often he went first to third and scored from second and said he was 20% better as a baserunner than average.

Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.

by Bobby Baseball on May 28, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah but the articles talking about the differences between fwar and

baseball reference/projections war totals for pagan as well.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on May 28, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

How he was given a tag of having poor instincts and that set his career back several years. We still have to worry about his injury history, but if he keeps it up.. he deserves to at least be on the bench for the all star game (he won’t, because he doesn’t hit enough home runs.)

What Would Matt Szczur Do?

Fact on Villanova Sports

by Hoyadestroya85 on May 28, 2010 5:38 PM EDT reply actions

Huh, this article came out after I wrote in Angel Pagan for All-Star 25 times

Nice to have some statistical justification

by Gorfax on May 28, 2010 11:43 PM EDT reply actions

Angel Pagan is our Jayson Werth

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on May 29, 2010 6:16 PM EDT reply actions

Minus the douchetude.

May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.

by BobbyV_Incognito on May 29, 2010 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions

And a better name.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on May 30, 2010 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

A lot of people on another site seem to think we need a RFer more than another SP.

Doesn’t make sense to me. If Beltran comes back a new RFer is redundant. If he doesn’t Pagan stays in CF and Carter/Tatis/Frenchy platoon with Frenchy as the late inning D guy in RF as needed. I grant that we need at least a Pridie level backup CFer, but there’s no way I’d want to spend our cash and chips on an OFer rather than a starter.

Pagan’s continued emergence helps the club in any number of ways. Can you imagine where the team would be if he reverted to his pre 2009 level?

by Jack Str on May 30, 2010 2:33 AM EDT reply actions

Frenchy needs to be benched, as Tatis/Carter platoon would be much more productive.

We don’t need to trade for a new RF, we just need to stop starting the worst RF in the majors.

And I’ll start to believe Beltran is coming back after he plays in a few minor league rehab games. And even if he does make it back he may be best suited to a DH role

by twon8 on May 30, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions