Credit Where Credit Isn't Due

Amidst all of the hoopla of the 'Reyes batting 3rd' experiment, the 9-1 homestand & the roller coaster series in Philly, Jason Bay started hitting.  At the start of the aforementioned homestand, Bay was sporting a .217 AVG and a punchless .603 OPS.  But since then he'd gone 13 for his last 40 (including 7 extra base hits) and now at the conclusion of the Phillies series, Bay stands at a much improved .270 AVG with a robust .817 OPS.

But here's the problem:  Jerry Manuel is getting much of the credit for this offensive outburst.

To be more specific, Manuel is getting recognition for Bay's resurgence at the dish as a direct result of pushing Jose back to the 3rd spot in the order.  And we all know the supposed logic here:  Reyes' mere presence on first figures to make pitchers more wary of throwing off-speed stuff (making it easier for him to steal second) thus theoretically giving Bay more fastballs to hit.  And of course, If(Bay sees more fastballs) Then(Bay gets more hits).  Simple yet unfallible old-school baseball logic.

So let's see here...Slumping Bay + 3) Reyes = Hitting Bay.  It worked!  Seemingly everything is sunshine, lollipops and rainbows for Jerry.  His plan came to fruition, his If Statement worked and emo glasses are making a comeback among the 50-65yr old baseball manager demographic.  But wait a minute, did I hear somebody say 'Let's check out the ab's to see what actually happened"?  Don't mind if I do.

Jose on first = fb

Let's first get into the Pitch F/X and test the "Jose on first = more fastballs" theory.  First thing we've got to do is divide up Bay's ab's that started with Jose on base from those when he wasn't.  OK, Bay had 42 ab's with Jose on base, 101 ab's without.  Next step:  Calculate the percentage of fastballs Bay saw in either case.  And hey what do you know, while the sample size is small, 52% of the pitches that Jason Bay saw in his Jose-less ab's were fastballs while he saw 71% fastballs in the ab's with Jose on base.  See Jerry, dreams can come true, even if they are aided by small samples.  But don't go too nuts, we've still got that all important If Statement to ponder.

if fastballs, then hits...right?

Here is the crux of this little evaluation:  How did Bay actually fare in those ab's with Jose on base?  We now know that he saw slightly more fastballs, so obviously that must mean he feasted upon them, breaking his slump as a result.  Maybe not; the first issue is that since Reyes began batting 3rd, he's only been on base for a Bay at-bat 9 times, compared to 21 where he was on the bench watching.  But hey, maybe Bay crushed in those 9 ab's.  Nope; despite seeing a few more fastballs, Bay batted just .222 with Jose on base.  In fact, Bay broke his slump in those 21 Jose-less ab's, batting .429 in that time.  Ooh sorry Jerry, so close.

He did it all by himself

So believe it or not, Bay started hitting not because of a few more fastballs (the same fastballs Bay said he was missing during his slump), nor because of Jose's telekinetic mastery of pitcher's minds when he's on base.  Bay broke out simply because he's just a good hitter.  Didn't really need any help.  Sorry Jerry, nice try though. 

Oh and P.S. - Reyes is now mired in a 1-13 slump and has dropped 30 batting points with only 2 RBIs since moving into the 3 hole...but hey, we got Bay a couple more fastballs right?