David Wright has a 25% whiff rate

This has been getting worse since 2007. I checked to see this when it became evident that he's not fouling pitches off or putting them in play as much as he used to, and is becoming an automatic K with 2 strikes. (K% after 2 strikes at 68%; overall K% around 33%). In fact, having re-energized his swing to put up some more power seems to have had the expected effect on his whiff rates and K rates, except that it's gone from a wussy swing with very high whiff rates to a strong swing with extremely high whiff rates. The sample size is becoming large enough (K rates and contact % stabilize early) so that if this continues we will soon have ample justification to say that his career is on an early decline phase. No panicking yet. Just something to keep an eye on.

about 2 years ago GenJackRipper 25 comments 0 recs |

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Or he's just a different hitter

“early decline phase” is some phrase to use for a guy with his best career wOBA so far.

by Sam Page on May 8, 2010 5:26 PM EDT reply actions

I am pessimistic about his being able to maintain that wOBA

when his whiff % is almost double his career percentage.

If it does continue that way, it suits me fine.

Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa

by GenJackRipper on May 8, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions

His walk rate is at a career high, as is his OBP.

It’s quite possible that he’s just letting stuff go that he’s not gonna handle and doing his best to get on base. If anything, I think his new approach is an improvement.

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on May 8, 2010 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions

For the trillionth time

This has been getting worse since 2007.

How is going from 21.7% to 21.9% to 21.5% getting worse?

by Evan_S on May 8, 2010 5:55 PM EDT reply actions

What are you referring to?

Wright’s contact % since 2008:

83% 80% 75%.

This is a large drop in a major skill. Are you saying this is not in the slightest disconcerting? In 2009, there were 2 major problems Ks and the power drop. In 2010, the power is back (so far) but the contact has gotten worse still. This is not a bad thing in and of itself except that it displays a rather rapid decline in a crucial skill.

Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa

by GenJackRipper on May 8, 2010 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Stupid me

I was looking at the rate he swings outside the zone, which has been referenced before. Sorry. Wish this site had an option to delete or edit comments.

by Evan_S on May 8, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry Evan,

some things you say will live on forever.

"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell

by Rey-O on May 8, 2010 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions

LMAO

Jesus, that was a joke. I’m sure I could prove it if I have to.

by Evan_S on May 8, 2010 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions

you could

but its better this way

"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell

by Rey-O on May 8, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions

There must be an edit function, 'cause that Turk Wendell quote

originally went:

“I only wanted a few things out of life — a deer, a baseball, to play a wife, and to hunt children.”

by Jack Str on May 8, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Posts and signatures aren't the same.

The latter can be changed by going into your profile.

May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.

by BobbyV_Incognito on May 9, 2010 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions

that's ruff

I’m sure we’ve all said something on AA that could be used against us at a later date.

by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on May 9, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Some moreso than others.

COUGHmetsmedicalstaffinsuranceCOUGH

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on May 9, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Just to clear my name

Here, here, and my award winning post, here.

by Evan_S on May 9, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Hojo to the rescue!

No, wait…

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on May 8, 2010 6:01 PM EDT reply actions

This might be of interest

Wright is seeing more pitches per P/A this year. 4.36 up from last year’s 4.14, and higher than his 2005-2008 marks, which all were in the 3.93-3.99 range.

I think Wright is feeling some pressure to try to work the count, because the perception (and the reality to an extent) is that this is something elite hitters do. But, when Wright has put the ball in play early in the count this year, he has had success. With the count 0-0, 0-1, 1-0 he;s slugging well over .1000.

I guess to make this really matter I would need to find the data on what his swinging strike rate is on 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pitches? I don’t know where to find that. My point is that Wright might want to start attacking earlier in the count. Deep counts are good, but if Wright is having more trouble making contact, combined with the fact that with 2 strikes he’s more likely to swing at the more borderline" pitcher’s pitches", then attacking early might help. Just a thought.

by njk237 on May 8, 2010 7:04 PM EDT reply actions

For his career,

the numbers for different counts can be found here.

For 2010 so far, those same numbers can be found here.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on May 8, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions

He's also absolutely crushing the ball when he does put it in play

which is probably making up a lot, if not all, of the lost value from the lower average/higher whiff rate.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on May 8, 2010 9:33 PM EDT reply actions

This isn't neccesarily a bad thing

Wright’s contact% is down by 5%, but all of that is coming on O-Contact. His Z-Contact is 2% below his career, but his O-Contact is 10% below his career. Making contact with balls isn’t usually a good thing, unless it’s two strikes of course.

In fact, this is probably one of the biggest reasons for his improved power this year. When you are making more contact with balls, your swing is generally going to be more reachy and not has as much power to it.

by vivaelpujols on May 9, 2010 1:01 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Rec'd

Definitely something to keep in mind. He might be consciously letting it fly whenever he swings. Although it would be nice if he cut down a bit on 2 strike counts.

Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa

by GenJackRipper on May 9, 2010 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I think his prob is kind of obvious

he’s going for broke to add to his power, and he’s coming up empty more than ever. At least he is hitting for some power, but his doubles rate is down and mediocre pitchers are making him look terrible. That never happened before ‘09. And, understandably, he’s scared of inside pitches. He just is, and anyone who says he isn’t, is being silly. He bails on very average curves.

by David G on May 10, 2010 12:05 AM EDT reply actions

He who asserts must prove

Needs more evidence. Why is it this instead of a different approach or less bat speed? He’s been missing fastballs since late 2008.

Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa

by GenJackRipper on May 10, 2010 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Has he?

He was pretty awesome in late 2008.

by Evan_S on May 10, 2010 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions

On breaking balls if memory serves

Wright was very good in late 2008, but he produced in spite of being late on fastballs. Pitchers hadn’t gotten around to hearing that Wright could get beat on an average FB and he was feasting on off-speed and breaking balls.

Nothing can get by him; especially in a small room: Mike Francessa

by GenJackRipper on May 10, 2010 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions