Trade Partner: Diamondbacks
According to MLB Trade Rumors the D-Backs are open to trade talks for anyone but Upton and Kennedy. The Mets seem like ideal trade partners as they are maybe a few players away from being serious contenders.
- Dan Haren: an ace starting pitcher (12.6 WAR 2008-2009) whose value maybe slightly down due to some bad luck this year (4.83 ERA/ 3.30 xFIP). He is turning 30 this year and is only owed $25.5 million over the next two years plus a $15.5 million club option for 2013.
- Kelly Johnson: a below average 2B although not terrible according to UZR who has raked at the plate this year with a 147 wRC+. He is only 28 years old and is only under contract for this year at $2.35M.
- Chad Qualls: a good reliever whose value also might be down due to some bad luck (7.77 ERA/3.56xFIP). He turns 32 this summer and is only under contract for $4.185M for the year.
- Edwin Jackson: a talented young starting pitcher who although never truly putting it all together has still pitched well. His value also might be down because of luck (5.38 ERA/4.02 xFIP). He is only 27 and is under a 2 year contract for 2010-2011 for $13.35 million.
- Brandon Webb: former Cy Young winner who was worth 20 WAR from 2006-2008. A very risky move as he is on the DL until after the All Star break in all likelyhood. However he could return to form when he returns. He is only 31 but is a free agent after the season ends.
- Aaron Heilman: Just Kidding
- Juan Gutierrez: a young reliever with a great arm. He is only turning 27 this summer and had a decent year last year for the D-Backs (4.17xFIP/8.37 K/9).
The D-Backs are hesitant to trade Haren if they think they can contend again soon but are open to trading him. The Mets could trade Brad Holt, Jefrey Marte, Dillon Gee, Jeurys Familia, Kyle Allen, Captain Kirk, Nick Evans, Francisco Pena, and Reese Havens to the D-Backs for Dan Haren, Kelly Johnson, and Edwin Jackson. Another player or two may have to be thrown in but as long as it isn't Wright/Reyes/Pelf/Davis/Niese/F!/Mejia/Flores I'm okay with that.
This way the Mets can have a 2B who can hit and not be a butcher in the field to fill in while Castillo's still out. This way Cora's option won't vest. They also add a legitimate ace in Haren and a talented youngster who can be a good #2. The Mets also won't add too much payroll as all three have reasonable contracts in terms of money and years. The Mets would immediately have a deadly rotation of Haren, Pelfrey, Santana, Niese, Jackson. This also allows Dickey and Takahashi to go to the bullpen with Mejia returning to the minors to be a starter and Acosta to go back to AAA. The Mets would have an improved offense, rotation, and defense with the bullpen gaining immediate depth with Acosta and Parnell waiting in the minors. Omar said he is a starter away from being in contention. This would not only put us in contention but might even make us a serious threat.
The downside is that that the depth in minors would be depleted although we would still be keeping Fernando Martinez, Mejia, Flores, Thole, Tejada, and Matz as well as everyone on the major league roster. The biggest loss is in starting pitching depth with the talented Holt, Familia, Allen and more projectable Dillon Gee. However with the relatively young staff under contract for a few years the need for depth will hopefully not be needed as much. Marte is talented and young but hopefully 3B will be locked down for a long time. Evans clearly wasn't being valued correctly here. Pena is talented and very young but we still would have Thole. Havens is a loss but with Tejada and free agency that hole could be filled. Captain Kirk is also a big loss but the Mets OF seems to be set for a bit with Bay/Beltran/Pagan/Frenchy/Carter/F!.
I know this will likely never happen but its nice to think about.
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I can't see how this would work for either team.
For the Diamondbacks, Havens would be the best player they got in the deal. No way a package fronted by Reece Havens as its best prospect nets Dan Haren. Haren alone has more value than guys like Roy Oswalt or Cliff Lee. Guys like Dillon Gee and Francisco Pena don’t really carry much value, and many of the other prospects are at low points in their value.
For the Mets, there is just no way to justify trading away that much depth from the farm system. That’s basically every MLB quality prospect who isn’t currently on the roster, and many of them are selling low. It would also likely eliminate their ability to make any moves this coming offseason due to the 25 millon or so worth of added payroll for 2011. This really seems like a video game scenario.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 11, 2010 6:30 PM EDT reply actions
This diary made sense for a while.
Until I reached your proposed mega-trade, which is basically 1/3 of the D’backs roster for 1/2 of the Mets’ minor league rosters. Talk about biting off more than one can chew.
Keep it simple. Explore what it would take to liberate Webb for the last 2 months of the season, assuming he’s healthy and pitching well by the 7/31 deadline. If that doesn’t work, move on to one of the bullpen arms. The only hitter on your list is Johnson, and I wouldn’t be interested in him.
I like the Heilman bit
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
Trading for Brandon Webb seems a very Omarish move to make, given he hasn't played yet, is on the DL, and will be a FA in the winter.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jun 11, 2010 11:20 PM EDT reply actions
Hey
if Omar can guarantee 1.5 million to a 35 year old reliever who threw a total of 5 innings over (now) 3 seasons, I’m sure he’d be willing to throw prospects at the DBacks for Webb. I wouldn’t put it past him, so don’t give him the idea.
by Steve Schreiber on Jun 12, 2010 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions
i love haren
thats an insane package. I’d want Haren + Johnson back.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
oh wow i misread that
I definitely don’t’ see them giving up both Jackson and Haren that doesn’t make any sense.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
All teams that are not big market teams serve only to accept bad trades in order to make the rosters of big market teams better.
Didn’t get the memo, I take it?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jun 11, 2010 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually don't think it's a bad trade value wise
but probably because I’m incredibly overrating our roster, it just makes zero sense to give up two cost controlled young pitcher, especially for a team thats so young and really only a bullpen away from being a top tier team in the NL, if not for their bullpen they might be the best team in the NL. It barely makes sense to trade Haren unless they’re getting some kind of kings ransom. I don’t know what kind of shape their farm system is in at this point, I feel like it’s probably pretty desolate between the haren trade and the number of young players they’ve had graduate, but I feel like it would make more sense to make some small trades to fix the bullpen.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
I wouldn't trade Perez for Qualls right now.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Jun 12, 2010 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions
really?
qualls could always be nontendered at the end of the season. it’s would basically be a low risk high reward salary dump.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Being sarcastic.
I’m sure Qualls isn’t nearly as awful as he’s been this season, and there isn’t much I wouldn’t do to get Ollie off the Mets.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Jun 12, 2010 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Qualls' BABIP this year is .474
He does have the highest HR rate of his career, though, and the lowest GB%. So I don’t know. Looks like he’s unlucky and simultaneously not that good.
by Thomas Wachtel on Jun 15, 2010 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I love the idea of Getting Haren
The rest of them are a pass for me.
I wouldnt be opposed to KJ… but I dont trust his stats this year (been trying to pawn him off on my fantasy team, because I see a big regression coming) and I would not want to give anyone of quality for him.
I am a fan of both the mets and knicks... so just kill me now.
he's been expected to break out in a big way for a few years
last year was more of an anomaly than anything, he might not keep up the power but he was trending up for years before last year, which is why no one understood why Atlanta non tendered him.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Martin Prado
is why Atlanta non-tendered him. He was terrific last year, just as good if not better this year, and hits arb for the first time in 2011. We would have had to offer KJ arb to keep him, which meant at the very best maintaining his salary if not increasing it after a career-worst year.
Even after KJ’s stratospheric performance, prado is 0.5 WAR off his pace now. KJ’s regression is coming.
yeah but Chippers near death
They could have had Escobar play first for a year or eventually take over 3rd. Or hell, just traded him.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
KJ in left would have been a big upgrade over Melky as well.
It might have allowed them to add more prospects in the Vazquez trade.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 13, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Omar approved trading partners: Royals and Giants. Even then, there is a non-negligible chance to screw up.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
i'd replace the royals with the astros
i think.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Haren would be a great pickup, better than Oswalt
if we could package some guys to gethim that would be awesome. I wouldn’t want to lose Havens though but for a guy of Haren’s calibre we might have to give up one of our blue chip prospects.
but I woul dbe surprised to se Haren moved
I say they move Jackson and I don’t want him
I don’t know about Johnson, he seems to start every year hot and drop off
and no way I take anyone from their pen, they have done nothing but blow saves ll season. I believe they re the worst in MLB.
I realy like Webb but 16 months on the DL is tough to give up much for him, an dtough to expect him to be his old self until next year. He could always pull a Chris Carpenter an dcome back throwing great
HEILMAN / CORA
you almost killed me with “Heilman” (felt the neurons shifting into “stroke” mode) but revived me with “Cora won’t vest” (reason to live again)

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