Yeah But, The Relievers Have Been Lucky

by Eno Sarris on Jun 15, 2010 2:15 PM EDT

It's nice to get all excited. Even I've been removing the hater goggles given out to all sabremetrically-inclined writers in favor of some of the rose-colored variety. There's something to this team with their mix of upstart youth and still-strong veterans. There's even more help in the pipeline. There are rumors of acquiring talent from other teams. It's good to be a fan right now.

But one must be realistic. So in the name realism, let's take a look at the bullpen for a second, and expound on some of the stuff that Alex Nelson just showed us in the Month in Review. The pen has been doing well enough for what could only be described as a question mark (at least beyond the closer) going into the season. The 3.73 is eighth-best in the National League, but there's a little more going on. By at least one measure, they are the third-luckiest relief corps in the league. Check the list below sorted by FIP - ERA.

Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	E-F	xFIP
Cardinals	7.1	3.17	2.24	0.86	1.23	0.277	77.70%	3.27	4.03	-0.75	4.2
Nationals	7.61	4.09	1.86	0.87	1.4	0.3	74.30%	3.61	4.14	-0.53	4.58
Mets	8.21	4.65	1.76	0.79	1.45	0.308	77.90%	3.73	4.14	-0.41	4.43
Padres	9.61	2.49	3.86	0.7	1.02	0.275	79.40%	2.62	2.89	-0.26	3.09
Phillies	7.4	3.7	2	0.69	1.37	0.306	76.50%	3.64	3.87	-0.23	4.31
Rockies	7.57	2.8	2.7	0.59	1.19	0.29	73.60%	3.2	3.36	-0.16	4.11
Giants	8.66	4.44	1.95	0.7	1.44	0.318	76.70%	3.63	3.79	-0.16	4.24
Cubs	8.52	4.29	1.99	1.01	1.42	0.307	68.30%	4.24	4.29	-0.06	4.43
Braves	10.01	4.05	2.47	0.68	1.28	0.306	75.10%	3.27	3.32	-0.05	3.59
Dodgers	7.52	3.59	2.09	0.68	1.28	0.289	70.90%	3.8	3.74	0.07	4.2
Pirates	8.39	4.36	1.92	0.91	1.4	0.302	69.10%	4.53	4.18	0.34	4.28
Astros	6.58	3.39	1.94	1	1.52	0.33	71.40%	4.88	4.32	0.57	4.52
Reds	7.7	4.39	1.75	0.79	1.59	0.339	71.90%	4.74	4.1	0.64	4.47
Marlins	8.06	4.28	1.88	0.6	1.46	0.322	68.70%	4.48	3.79	0.7	4.35
Diamondbacks	6.8	5.05	1.35	1.75	1.81	0.337	61.40%	7.33	5.88	1.45	5.16
Brewers	8.33	4.02	2.07	0.96	1.63	0.363	65.10%	5.86	4.13	1.73	4.36

So yes, despite having the eight-best bullpen ERA, the Mets have the twelfth-worst bullpen FIP in the National League. You do that by having the second-worst walk rate in the majors and the third-worst K/BB ratio. Take a look at the relievers in our pen, sorted by ERA-FIP. Looks like almost everyone's been lucky!

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	E-F	xFIP
Mike Pelfrey		9			2	0.262	100.00%		6.11	-6.11	7.48
Sean Green	9		1	9	2	0.355	100.00%	9	14.11	-5.11	3.84
Manny Acosta	10.5	6	1.75	1.5	1.33	0.232	90.90%	3	4.94	-1.94	4.14
Oliver Perez	5.06	8.44	0.6	3.38	2.25	0.293	78.40%	8.44	10.24	-1.8	7.41
Elmer Dessens	4.05	1.35	3		0.75	0.202	66.70%	1.35	3.11	-1.76	4.95
Pedro Feliciano	8.14	4.81	1.69	0.37	1.64	0.358	88.40%	1.85	3.56	-1.71	3.93
Jenrry Mejia	5.4	4.39	1.23	0.68	1.58	0.313	85.30%	3.04	4.69	-1.65	4.68
Francisco Rodriguez	11.07	3.24	3.42	0.54	1.11	0.303	88.40%	1.89	2.69	-0.8	3.51
Fernando Nieve	6.12	5.76	1.06	1.08	1.36	0.219	72.30%	4.68	5.47	-0.79	5.55
Tobi Stoner		3.86			1.71	0.313	75.00%	3.86	4.4	-0.54	4.98
Hisanori Takahashi	11.42	4.85	2.36	0.35	1.38	0.342	78.00%	3.12	2.69	0.43	3.5
Raul Valdes	10.01	3.94	2.54	0.61	1.52	0.372	64.80%	5.16	3.18	1.98	4
Ryota Igarashi	3.09	6.94	0.44	1.54	1.97	0.293	49.50%	10.03	6.97	3.06	6.73

The good news is that there are a couple relievers that, despite some regression to the mean, will still be valuable. Elmer Dessens, Pedro Feliciano and Francisco Rodriguez have been lucky, yes, but they also sport good FIPs. The bad news is that this analysis highlights how bad of a decision the Fernando Nieve and Jenrry Mejia decisions have been. Mejia is no better than replacement right now (4.18 FIP Is the ML average), with an upside of a mid-rotation starter that is currently being stalled... for a replacement-level reliever. He's not showing anything that say, someone like Pat Misch, Bobby Parnell, Dillon Gee couldn't show us. And even Gee probably has less upside as a starter with his flyball ways. Nieve has been bad, and really it can only get worse from here on out with that walk rate. While Rodriguez has been lucky but is still good, Igarashi has been unlucky and bad. Raul Valdes gives us hope that he may yet step forward and be a valuable addition to the bullpen.

And lest you go wondering how ERA and FIP matchup in general, the average reliever ERA-FIP is plus 0.5 this year and was plus 0.76 last year. (Yes I know that this is jenky math, but I'll let it serve as a quick-and-dirty check.) Also, while xFIP regulates for home run rates across the league - and so therefore might not give credit to Citi Field and its home-run suppressing environment, FIP cares not about home run rates. So it really does look like every regular pitcher in the Mets bullpen save Raul Valdes has been either lucky, terrible, or in the case of Fernando Nieve, both.

Tweet Comment 43 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Get that RP

Pelfrey off the team. I don’t care that he has 0 BS.

by Sokojoe on Jun 15, 2010 2:27 PM EDT reply actions

is there really that much difference between 8th in era and 12 in FIP?

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 15, 2010 2:28 PM EDT reply actions

hmmm

Maybe not, but when you see it in terms of ERA-FIP it seems interesting. It’s just like saying, “Their bullpen has been aight, but it could get worse.”

by Eno Sarris on Jun 15, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 15, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

KRod really hasn't been lucky

His BB/9 is it’s lowest since 2002, and his tERA (2.23) is it’s best since 2004

And couldn’t you also say Feliciano has been unlucky, given the 24.7 LD% against him so far this year?

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jun 15, 2010 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

how does a 24.7% ld rate make him unlucky?

the problem with tera is it treats ld rates as luck. When there’s plenty of evidence to suggest pitchers can control what type of contact they induce..

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 15, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

The last three years it's been under 20%

Perhaps it’s just bad pitching on his part, but that seems like an absurdly high rate to me.

And Feliciano’s tERA is 4.42, so it doesn’t seem like it’s treating his LD% as luck.

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jun 15, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

tra regresses all batted balls back to league average

which is treating them as luck.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 15, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

And the fact it's higher than his career rates

goes more to the point that he’s a worse pitcher than he was the last 3 years this year.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 15, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

isn't this a product of more outing verses right handed hitters this yr

by Sir Tmac on Jun 15, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Oddly

Righties have a LD% of 18% off of Pedro…

Lefties?

30%

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jun 15, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I think that's backwards but I could be wrong

tERA treats LD% as skill, when in reality it’s largely luck. Groundballs are different though.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 15, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

And by luck

I mean the pitcher doesn’t have much control over whether batters hit line drives or not, in the long run.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 15, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

?

how do they not control that? You can control what type of hits you’re getting and what type of hits you give up…but you can’t control what the defense does and EXACTLY where the ball goes.

I can’t see how LD rate could not be considered a controllable skill.

by Mike Clemente on Jun 15, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

because it's not repeatable

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 15, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions

what's not repeatable?

by Mike Clemente on Jun 15, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

line drive rates

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 15, 2010 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions

my issue is that by this logic, pitchers dont have much control over GBs and FBs...

which we know is not true.

by Mike Clemente on Jun 15, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah you're right I had it backwards

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 15, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

an 88% strand rate

is lucky. That’s 70% across baseball. Not saying he’s been bad, just a tad lucky.

( I just ran LOB% for relievers through the system and got 72.71%, which is a tad higher than starters, but still not 88% high.)

by Eno Sarris on Jun 15, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Wait

Are we talking about inherited runners stranded or are we talking his own runners stranded?

by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 15, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

own runners

inherited runners would count towards the pitcher that left them. That’s why there was a chance that strand rate was higher for relievers (and it is, but only slightly).

by Eno Sarris on Jun 15, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Given that, then, considering his extremely good peripherals and low WHIP, we’re really only talking about one or two runs scoring to make him more like league average, aren’t we?

by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 15, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

for a reliever 1-2 runners is kind of a big difference though isn't it?

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 15, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Depends on what you're looking at

I mean, is there are real difference, statistically, if K-Rod has a slightly below 2 ERA or if it’s slightly below 3? Perhaps he has an extra blown save? Either way, the point is that his peripherals show that he’s been a good pitcher this season and a run or two either way really isn’t going to change that.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 15, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

He's been above 80% three of the past five years (2005-2009)

and in one of the other two it was 78%

Yes, he’s due to allow more runners score. But it’s not a rate that’s completely unsustainable for him at least

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jun 15, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

By the way

Having trouble coming up with the 88%. I’m adding total baserunners allowed (hits/walks/HBP) which is 39. Then I’m subtracting the 7 earned runs he’s allowed and then dividing that answer by 39 and only getting an 81% strand rate. What am I missing?

by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 15, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I read the site in "Narrow" and can't read your tables.

FYI. I obviously clicked “Wide.”

by Dan Lewis on Jun 15, 2010 2:49 PM EDT reply actions

thats weird I have it in narrow and it's fine

it might be a resolution thing though. I use the biggest resolution possible (1600 by like 1200)

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on Jun 15, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Looks fine in narrow for me

What browser are you using?

by Eric Simon on Jun 15, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Try Netscape; it's what all us cool kids use

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Jun 16, 2010 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions

So Igarashi

the only one with a higher BB/9 then K/9 besides Ollie. What the heck? I don’t think he was the next coming of anybody or anything, but before the hammy injury he was pitching at least decently. Might he still be injured or has the league just adjusted to him?

"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage

by blueandorange4life on Jun 15, 2010 3:29 PM EDT reply actions

Ehh

His numbers before his injury weren’t spectacular, and he wasn’t good in spring training

He seems like a harder throwing version of Nieve

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jun 15, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

True, I guess he just wasn't exposed as much

"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage

by blueandorange4life on Jun 15, 2010 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions

D-Backs bullpen is lol

by James Kannengieser on Jun 15, 2010 3:51 PM EDT reply actions

This is kinda nitpicking but....

We knew the reliever’s early start (when they were up around #1 or #2 in April) was a factor of luck, especially due to high ball counts. It seems to me that, at #8, we’re dealing with regression to the mean. In other words, this article seems to be pointing out something that’s already happening.

If you look at the month by month rates:

April: 1.54 K/BB
May: 1.80 K/BB
June: 3.80 K/BB

So, as you can see, the numbers are stabalizing and, at the same time, we’re weeding out the crappy pitchers and either getting them out of the pen or pitching them less.

Basically, what I’m saying is that this article is about a month late and doesn’t, to me, seem relevant at this point.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 15, 2010 4:42 PM EDT reply actions