Yeah But, The Relievers Have Been Lucky
It's nice to get all excited. Even I've been removing the hater goggles given out to all sabremetrically-inclined writers in favor of some of the rose-colored variety. There's something to this team with their mix of upstart youth and still-strong veterans. There's even more help in the pipeline. There are rumors of acquiring talent from other teams. It's good to be a fan right now.
But one must be realistic. So in the name realism, let's take a look at the bullpen for a second, and expound on some of the stuff that Alex Nelson just showed us in the Month in Review. The pen has been doing well enough for what could only be described as a question mark (at least beyond the closer) going into the season. The 3.73 is eighth-best in the National League, but there's a little more going on. By at least one measure, they are the third-luckiest relief corps in the league. Check the list below sorted by FIP - ERA.
| Team | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | E-F | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 7.1 | 3.17 | 2.24 | 0.86 | 1.23 | 0.277 | 77.70% | 3.27 | 4.03 | -0.75 | 4.2 |
| Nationals | 7.61 | 4.09 | 1.86 | 0.87 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 74.30% | 3.61 | 4.14 | -0.53 | 4.58 |
| Mets | 8.21 | 4.65 | 1.76 | 0.79 | 1.45 | 0.308 | 77.90% | 3.73 | 4.14 | -0.41 | 4.43 |
| Padres | 9.61 | 2.49 | 3.86 | 0.7 | 1.02 | 0.275 | 79.40% | 2.62 | 2.89 | -0.26 | 3.09 |
| Phillies | 7.4 | 3.7 | 2 | 0.69 | 1.37 | 0.306 | 76.50% | 3.64 | 3.87 | -0.23 | 4.31 |
| Rockies | 7.57 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 0.59 | 1.19 | 0.29 | 73.60% | 3.2 | 3.36 | -0.16 | 4.11 |
| Giants | 8.66 | 4.44 | 1.95 | 0.7 | 1.44 | 0.318 | 76.70% | 3.63 | 3.79 | -0.16 | 4.24 |
| Cubs | 8.52 | 4.29 | 1.99 | 1.01 | 1.42 | 0.307 | 68.30% | 4.24 | 4.29 | -0.06 | 4.43 |
| Braves | 10.01 | 4.05 | 2.47 | 0.68 | 1.28 | 0.306 | 75.10% | 3.27 | 3.32 | -0.05 | 3.59 |
| Dodgers | 7.52 | 3.59 | 2.09 | 0.68 | 1.28 | 0.289 | 70.90% | 3.8 | 3.74 | 0.07 | 4.2 |
| Pirates | 8.39 | 4.36 | 1.92 | 0.91 | 1.4 | 0.302 | 69.10% | 4.53 | 4.18 | 0.34 | 4.28 |
| Astros | 6.58 | 3.39 | 1.94 | 1 | 1.52 | 0.33 | 71.40% | 4.88 | 4.32 | 0.57 | 4.52 |
| Reds | 7.7 | 4.39 | 1.75 | 0.79 | 1.59 | 0.339 | 71.90% | 4.74 | 4.1 | 0.64 | 4.47 |
| Marlins | 8.06 | 4.28 | 1.88 | 0.6 | 1.46 | 0.322 | 68.70% | 4.48 | 3.79 | 0.7 | 4.35 |
| Diamondbacks | 6.8 | 5.05 | 1.35 | 1.75 | 1.81 | 0.337 | 61.40% | 7.33 | 5.88 | 1.45 | 5.16 |
| Brewers | 8.33 | 4.02 | 2.07 | 0.96 | 1.63 | 0.363 | 65.10% | 5.86 | 4.13 | 1.73 | 4.36 |
So yes, despite having the eight-best bullpen ERA, the Mets have the twelfth-worst bullpen FIP in the National League. You do that by having the second-worst walk rate in the majors and the third-worst K/BB ratio. Take a look at the relievers in our pen, sorted by ERA-FIP. Looks like almost everyone's been lucky!
| Name | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | WHIP | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | E-F | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Pelfrey | 9 | 2 | 0.262 | 100.00% | 6.11 | -6.11 | 7.48 | ||||
| Sean Green | 9 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0.355 | 100.00% | 9 | 14.11 | -5.11 | 3.84 | |
| Manny Acosta | 10.5 | 6 | 1.75 | 1.5 | 1.33 | 0.232 | 90.90% | 3 | 4.94 | -1.94 | 4.14 |
| Oliver Perez | 5.06 | 8.44 | 0.6 | 3.38 | 2.25 | 0.293 | 78.40% | 8.44 | 10.24 | -1.8 | 7.41 |
| Elmer Dessens | 4.05 | 1.35 | 3 | 0.75 | 0.202 | 66.70% | 1.35 | 3.11 | -1.76 | 4.95 | |
| Pedro Feliciano | 8.14 | 4.81 | 1.69 | 0.37 | 1.64 | 0.358 | 88.40% | 1.85 | 3.56 | -1.71 | 3.93 |
| Jenrry Mejia | 5.4 | 4.39 | 1.23 | 0.68 | 1.58 | 0.313 | 85.30% | 3.04 | 4.69 | -1.65 | 4.68 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | 11.07 | 3.24 | 3.42 | 0.54 | 1.11 | 0.303 | 88.40% | 1.89 | 2.69 | -0.8 | 3.51 |
| Fernando Nieve | 6.12 | 5.76 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.36 | 0.219 | 72.30% | 4.68 | 5.47 | -0.79 | 5.55 |
| Tobi Stoner | 3.86 | 1.71 | 0.313 | 75.00% | 3.86 | 4.4 | -0.54 | 4.98 | |||
| Hisanori Takahashi | 11.42 | 4.85 | 2.36 | 0.35 | 1.38 | 0.342 | 78.00% | 3.12 | 2.69 | 0.43 | 3.5 |
| Raul Valdes | 10.01 | 3.94 | 2.54 | 0.61 | 1.52 | 0.372 | 64.80% | 5.16 | 3.18 | 1.98 | 4 |
| Ryota Igarashi | 3.09 | 6.94 | 0.44 | 1.54 | 1.97 | 0.293 | 49.50% | 10.03 | 6.97 | 3.06 | 6.73 |
The good news is that there are a couple relievers that, despite some regression to the mean, will still be valuable. Elmer Dessens, Pedro Feliciano and Francisco Rodriguez have been lucky, yes, but they also sport good FIPs. The bad news is that this analysis highlights how bad of a decision the Fernando Nieve and Jenrry Mejia decisions have been. Mejia is no better than replacement right now (4.18 FIP Is the ML average), with an upside of a mid-rotation starter that is currently being stalled... for a replacement-level reliever. He's not showing anything that say, someone like Pat Misch, Bobby Parnell, Dillon Gee couldn't show us. And even Gee probably has less upside as a starter with his flyball ways. Nieve has been bad, and really it can only get worse from here on out with that walk rate. While Rodriguez has been lucky but is still good, Igarashi has been unlucky and bad. Raul Valdes gives us hope that he may yet step forward and be a valuable addition to the bullpen.
And lest you go wondering how ERA and FIP matchup in general, the average reliever ERA-FIP is plus 0.5 this year and was plus 0.76 last year. (Yes I know that this is jenky math, but I'll let it serve as a quick-and-dirty check.) Also, while xFIP regulates for home run rates across the league - and so therefore might not give credit to Citi Field and its home-run suppressing environment, FIP cares not about home run rates. So it really does look like every regular pitcher in the Mets bullpen save Raul Valdes has been either lucky, terrible, or in the case of Fernando Nieve, both.
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is there really that much difference between 8th in era and 12 in FIP?
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
hmmm
Maybe not, but when you see it in terms of ERA-FIP it seems interesting. It’s just like saying, “Their bullpen has been aight, but it could get worse.”
KRod really hasn't been lucky
His BB/9 is it’s lowest since 2002, and his tERA (2.23) is it’s best since 2004
And couldn’t you also say Feliciano has been unlucky, given the 24.7 LD% against him so far this year?
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
how does a 24.7% ld rate make him unlucky?
the problem with tera is it treats ld rates as luck. When there’s plenty of evidence to suggest pitchers can control what type of contact they induce..
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
The last three years it's been under 20%
Perhaps it’s just bad pitching on his part, but that seems like an absurdly high rate to me.
And Feliciano’s tERA is 4.42, so it doesn’t seem like it’s treating his LD% as luck.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
tra regresses all batted balls back to league average
which is treating them as luck.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
And the fact it's higher than his career rates
goes more to the point that he’s a worse pitcher than he was the last 3 years this year.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
I think that's backwards but I could be wrong
tERA treats LD% as skill, when in reality it’s largely luck. Groundballs are different though.
by James Kannengieser on Jun 15, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
And by luck
I mean the pitcher doesn’t have much control over whether batters hit line drives or not, in the long run.
by James Kannengieser on Jun 15, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
?
how do they not control that? You can control what type of hits you’re getting and what type of hits you give up…but you can’t control what the defense does and EXACTLY where the ball goes.
I can’t see how LD rate could not be considered a controllable skill.
by Mike Clemente on Jun 15, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
my issue is that by this logic, pitchers dont have much control over GBs and FBs...
which we know is not true.
by Mike Clemente on Jun 15, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
an 88% strand rate
is lucky. That’s 70% across baseball. Not saying he’s been bad, just a tad lucky.
( I just ran LOB% for relievers through the system and got 72.71%, which is a tad higher than starters, but still not 88% high.)
Wait
Are we talking about inherited runners stranded or are we talking his own runners stranded?
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 15, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
own runners
inherited runners would count towards the pitcher that left them. That’s why there was a chance that strand rate was higher for relievers (and it is, but only slightly).
Given that, then, considering his extremely good peripherals and low WHIP, we’re really only talking about one or two runs scoring to make him more like league average, aren’t we?
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 15, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
for a reliever 1-2 runners is kind of a big difference though isn't it?
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Depends on what you're looking at
I mean, is there are real difference, statistically, if K-Rod has a slightly below 2 ERA or if it’s slightly below 3? Perhaps he has an extra blown save? Either way, the point is that his peripherals show that he’s been a good pitcher this season and a run or two either way really isn’t going to change that.
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 15, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
He's been above 80% three of the past five years (2005-2009)
and in one of the other two it was 78%
Yes, he’s due to allow more runners score. But it’s not a rate that’s completely unsustainable for him at least
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
By the way
Having trouble coming up with the 88%. I’m adding total baserunners allowed (hits/walks/HBP) which is 39. Then I’m subtracting the 7 earned runs he’s allowed and then dividing that answer by 39 and only getting an 81% strand rate. What am I missing?
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 15, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
thats weird I have it in narrow and it's fine
it might be a resolution thing though. I use the biggest resolution possible (1600 by like 1200)
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
So Igarashi
the only one with a higher BB/9 then K/9 besides Ollie. What the heck? I don’t think he was the next coming of anybody or anything, but before the hammy injury he was pitching at least decently. Might he still be injured or has the league just adjusted to him?
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Jun 15, 2010 3:29 PM EDT reply actions
Ehh
His numbers before his injury weren’t spectacular, and he wasn’t good in spring training
He seems like a harder throwing version of Nieve
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
True, I guess he just wasn't exposed as much
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Jun 15, 2010 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
This is kinda nitpicking but....
We knew the reliever’s early start (when they were up around #1 or #2 in April) was a factor of luck, especially due to high ball counts. It seems to me that, at #8, we’re dealing with regression to the mean. In other words, this article seems to be pointing out something that’s already happening.
If you look at the month by month rates:
April: 1.54 K/BB
May: 1.80 K/BB
June: 3.80 K/BB
So, as you can see, the numbers are stabalizing and, at the same time, we’re weeding out the crappy pitchers and either getting them out of the pen or pitching them less.
Basically, what I’m saying is that this article is about a month late and doesn’t, to me, seem relevant at this point.
Furthermore
A lot of the bullpen’s total walks on the season seem to be from the first month or so when the pen was TRULY being lucky and living on the edge.
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 15, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure
And we can further the process by giving fewer innings to Nieve and his poor control too. I still see K-Rod, Feliciano, and Dessens as a mop-up guy. Missing a ‘true’ setup man, and when Nieve is that man, then you are still counting on luck.
that should read
I see K-Rod there, Feliciano as lefty guy, Dessens as mop-up/ 6th/7th. Still missing a piece.
Agreed.
We could really use a good power righty setup guy. What hurts is that Iggy really has the ability to be that but doesn’t seem to know how to pitch in the majors as of yet.
by Lunkwill Fook on Jun 15, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Question: If FIP is worse than ERA across the board
Isn’t that more likely a sign of gasp good defense than good luck?

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